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Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(03-31-2020 01:12 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 05:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 11:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:05 PM)johnintx Wrote:  Very true re: RSNs.

I'm not sure how the NCAA will pay schools for this tournament since there were no results from which to reward credits, and we'll never know who all the automatic qualifiers would have been. Perhaps they can give an amount to each conference in lieu of their automatic qualifier?

If this lasts into football season, the networks will be in trouble. The NFL is the 800 pound gorilla of TV sports. College football generates a large portion of revenue for athletic departments.

Let's hope we have some sort of normal by August.

If this lasts anywhere near football season, college athletic departments and pro franchises will be in more trouble than TV networks. Ticket sales will be way down. People who have had their income disrupted for months are not going to be in the mood to spend hundreds or thousands for NFL or CFB season tickets, probably not for any other college and pro sport this year, either. Donations to college athletic departments will also be far lower than before, for at least the rest of 2020.

I think institutions that are saying they are suspended or closed until dates like April 30 are being wildly optimistic. In the USA, we're just getting started in terms of the impact.

If I had to bet, I'd say sports is canceled through August at a minimum, and it is more likely than not that neither CFB or the NFL kick off as scheduled.

Now that the FDA has cleared hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin and we know that zinc helps to accelerate its positive effect upon the COVID19 virus, and now that we know putting people showing respiratory distress on CPAP machines instead of ventilators that you speed the ability for the lungs to clear without sedation and having to ween patients off of ventilators, I'd say we've made significant progress. So while the spike in cases is still happening couple all of that with Abbott Labs who today unveiled a new test for COVID19 which delivers a result in 5 minutes and I finally like our chances to put this behind us in a controlled way sooner rather than later.

All those things (if effective) would help survival rates but not the need for hospitalization in general and not the duration that it will spread, unless we can really ramp up testing and isolation of the infected

If there is one thing that every pandemic in history has taught us it is that personal recognizance is not proper motivation for isolation. We should have a remote location set aside for quarantine in times of pandemic and have it stocked appropriately to house and feed a half million. Then as people test positive they are removed from the healthy until an absolutely proven treatment is identified.
03-31-2020 01:45 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(03-31-2020 01:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 01:12 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 05:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 11:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 02:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If this lasts anywhere near football season, college athletic departments and pro franchises will be in more trouble than TV networks. Ticket sales will be way down. People who have had their income disrupted for months are not going to be in the mood to spend hundreds or thousands for NFL or CFB season tickets, probably not for any other college and pro sport this year, either. Donations to college athletic departments will also be far lower than before, for at least the rest of 2020.

I think institutions that are saying they are suspended or closed until dates like April 30 are being wildly optimistic. In the USA, we're just getting started in terms of the impact.

If I had to bet, I'd say sports is canceled through August at a minimum, and it is more likely than not that neither CFB or the NFL kick off as scheduled.

Now that the FDA has cleared hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin and we know that zinc helps to accelerate its positive effect upon the COVID19 virus, and now that we know putting people showing respiratory distress on CPAP machines instead of ventilators that you speed the ability for the lungs to clear without sedation and having to ween patients off of ventilators, I'd say we've made significant progress. So while the spike in cases is still happening couple all of that with Abbott Labs who today unveiled a new test for COVID19 which delivers a result in 5 minutes and I finally like our chances to put this behind us in a controlled way sooner rather than later.

All those things (if effective) would help survival rates but not the need for hospitalization in general and not the duration that it will spread, unless we can really ramp up testing and isolation of the infected

If there is one thing that every pandemic in history has taught us it is that personal recognizance is not proper motivation for isolation. We should have a remote location set aside for quarantine in times of pandemic and have it stocked appropriately to house and feed a half million. Then as people test positive they are removed from the healthy until an absolutely proven treatment is identified.

I think I’d counter that personal recognizance is necessary to any successful response. Even where there were enforced measures there wasn’t any large scale resistance to the measures. But I agree isolation out of society is likely more effective that self isolation. Either way we’re beyond containment it seems at this point without a lot more testing and probably more restrictions. It doesn’t seem like that’s the plan though. We’re just trying to flatten the curve and spread out the pressure to our healthcare system. Some effective treatments like you mention would not just limit mortality rates but could shorten hospital stays so would help with that. But unless antibody testing shows that A LOT more people have been exposed I don’t see the length of this shortening before we get an effective, safe vaccine. Hopefully the summer brings some relief but I’m mentally preparing for a fall resurgence worse than we’re seeing now. I’m no expert and it seems the experts only know so much but let’s hope for the best and learn to be better prepared.
03-31-2020 08:55 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
Every school has its own situation but if we don’t have a season, the lower division and most of the G5 can ride it out unless they’ve got a lot of debt because they can cut out travel and uniform/gear costs and many student-athlete scholarships can be run out of regular scholarship accounts and equivalencies include payments from students to make up the rest of their costs. In general salaries aren’t that high.

A school in the P5 budgeting big media rights distributions will have higher salary costs. If they are carrying much debt they can be in major trouble. The gate receipts, donations and sponsorships are slashed.

Play but no crowds? P5 can get media money even with gate, donation, sponsorship cuts. G5 is hit in the head and that gets magnified if it ends up being a 10 or 8 game schedule and money games are cut.

Now the G5 is a vise.
03-31-2020 09:18 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(03-31-2020 09:18 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Every school has its own situation but if we don’t have a season, the lower division and most of the G5 can ride it out unless they’ve got a lot of debt because they can cut out travel and uniform/gear costs and many student-athlete scholarships can be run out of regular scholarship accounts and equivalencies include payments from students to make up the rest of their costs. In general salaries aren’t that high.

A school in the P5 budgeting big media rights distributions will have higher salary costs. If they are carrying much debt they can be in major trouble. The gate receipts, donations and sponsorships are slashed.

Play but no crowds? P5 can get media money even with gate, donation, sponsorship cuts. G5 is hit in the head and that gets magnified if it ends up being a 10 or 8 game schedule and money games are cut.

Now the G5 is a vise.

I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.
04-01-2020 08:12 AM
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Post: #45
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 09:18 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Every school has its own situation but if we don’t have a season, the lower division and most of the G5 can ride it out unless they’ve got a lot of debt because they can cut out travel and uniform/gear costs and many student-athlete scholarships can be run out of regular scholarship accounts and equivalencies include payments from students to make up the rest of their costs. In general salaries aren’t that high.

A school in the P5 budgeting big media rights distributions will have higher salary costs. If they are carrying much debt they can be in major trouble. The gate receipts, donations and sponsorships are slashed.

Play but no crowds? P5 can get media money even with gate, donation, sponsorship cuts. G5 is hit in the head and that gets magnified if it ends up being a 10 or 8 game schedule and money games are cut.

Now the G5 is a vise.

I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

That's one thing that makes this interesting. Historically, economic downturns drive enrollment up. People delay entry into the workforce by going to college or once knocked out of the workforce go to college to gain skills to be more competitive. WTF happens when isolation becomes the slogan?
04-01-2020 08:24 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

Yes, if Fall classes cannot be held "face to face", which is much more likely than many like to admit, this is likely to hit enrollment everywhere significantly, as many students will simply not want to do college online.

This could be an existential threat to many schools, there will likely be layoffs and furloughs of even tenured faculty, so athletics will be hit very hard if this happens. This would hit hard even at major P5 schools, and even worse at those down the pecking order in terms of resources.

And "resources" may not necessarily correspond with "P" and "G". For example, a school like Rice, with a $5 Billion endowment, could cover any Covid-related deficits in the Fall, academic and athletic, by dipping in to that. Also, its elite reputation means it is less likely that students will elect to drop out or not enroll, making the enrollment hit lighter.

In contrast, a state school with usually a much larger athletic budget, but a mediocre academic reputation, small endowment and a heavy reliance on ongoing high enrollment to pay for a big operations infrastructure could have to make deep cuts immediately.
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2020 09:09 AM by quo vadis.)
04-01-2020 08:45 AM
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Post: #47
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 09:18 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Every school has its own situation but if we don’t have a season, the lower division and most of the G5 can ride it out unless they’ve got a lot of debt because they can cut out travel and uniform/gear costs and many student-athlete scholarships can be run out of regular scholarship accounts and equivalencies include payments from students to make up the rest of their costs. In general salaries aren’t that high.

A school in the P5 budgeting big media rights distributions will have higher salary costs. If they are carrying much debt they can be in major trouble. The gate receipts, donations and sponsorships are slashed.

Play but no crowds? P5 can get media money even with gate, donation, sponsorship cuts. G5 is hit in the head and that gets magnified if it ends up being a 10 or 8 game schedule and money games are cut.

Now the G5 is a vise.

I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

(04-01-2020 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

Yes, if Fall classes cannot be held "face to face", which is much more likely than many like to admit, this is likely to hit enrollment everywhere significantly, as many students will simply not want to do college online.

This could be an existential threat to many schools, there will likely be layoffs and furloughs of even tenured faculty, so athletics will be hit very hard if this happens. This would hit hard even at major P5 schools, and even worse at those down the pecking order in terms of resources.

And "resources" may not necessarily correspond with "P" and "G". For example, a school like Rice, with a $5 Billion endowment, could cover any Covid-related deficits in the Fall, academic and athletic, by dipping in to that. Also, its elite reputation means it is less likely that students will elect to drop out or not enroll, making the enrollment hit lighter.

In contrast, a state school with usually a much larger athletic budget, but a mediocre academic reputation, small endowment and a heavy reliance on ongoing high enrollment to pay for a big operations infrastructure could have to make deep cuts immediately.
Admissions Departments will expand their enrollment pool in order to reach their typical number of Freshman enrolled. Most every major school is likely to see a drop in the coveted out-of state tuition, specifically from incoming Freshman.

So, if University X typically admits 32% of those who apply, they'll likely increase that number to 38-40%.

Parents have seen their "college funds" or 529s have taken a big hit in the last month and in the future, many families won't be able to fund it for a while. If your children are a 9-11th grader, when the parent can invest money into any account is in question for millions of households.

The Chronicle of Higher Education has COVID-19 stories without the paywall and Inside Higher Ed also has the administrative side covered with quotes and some dive into athletics.

EDIT: Here's a few items from Sports Business Journal from Monday regarding intercollegiate athletics. (No paywall)
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2020 12:07 PM by Renandpat.)
04-01-2020 10:50 AM
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Post: #48
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

Yes, if Fall classes cannot be held "face to face", which is much more likely than many like to admit, this is likely to hit enrollment everywhere significantly, as many students will simply not want to do college online.

This could be an existential threat to many schools, there will likely be layoffs and furloughs of even tenured faculty, so athletics will be hit very hard if this happens. This would hit hard even at major P5 schools, and even worse at those down the pecking order in terms of resources.

And "resources" may not necessarily correspond with "P" and "G". For example, a school like Rice, with a $5 Billion endowment, could cover any Covid-related deficits in the Fall, academic and athletic, by dipping in to that. Also, its elite reputation means it is less likely that students will elect to drop out or not enroll, making the enrollment hit lighter.

In contrast, a state school with usually a much larger athletic budget, but a mediocre academic reputation, small endowment and a heavy reliance on ongoing high enrollment to pay for a big operations infrastructure could have to make deep cuts immediately.

Private colleges are *more* likely to see a big enrollment drop if they are online-only in the fall. (Students paying out of state tuition at public colleges might be in the same situation as private college students.)

You're not getting the elite private university experience you paid $$$ for if classes are online-only and you're just sitting in your parents' home taking courses via a computer. Given that, if a student's expensive private university is online-only in the fall, why wouldn't they save the hefty tuition payment by taking the semester off or taking online courses from a much less expensive college? They can still go back to their private university, and get their degree from that school, in a semester or two after the social distancing measures have been lifted.

At a public university, students paying in-state tuition won't save as much by searching for inexpensive online alternatives, and they are more likely to just take online classes from the college at which they are already enrolled.
04-01-2020 12:18 PM
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Post: #49
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 12:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

Yes, if Fall classes cannot be held "face to face", which is much more likely than many like to admit, this is likely to hit enrollment everywhere significantly, as many students will simply not want to do college online.

This could be an existential threat to many schools, there will likely be layoffs and furloughs of even tenured faculty, so athletics will be hit very hard if this happens. This would hit hard even at major P5 schools, and even worse at those down the pecking order in terms of resources.

And "resources" may not necessarily correspond with "P" and "G". For example, a school like Rice, with a $5 Billion endowment, could cover any Covid-related deficits in the Fall, academic and athletic, by dipping in to that. Also, its elite reputation means it is less likely that students will elect to drop out or not enroll, making the enrollment hit lighter.

In contrast, a state school with usually a much larger athletic budget, but a mediocre academic reputation, small endowment and a heavy reliance on ongoing high enrollment to pay for a big operations infrastructure could have to make deep cuts immediately.

Private colleges are *more* likely to see a big enrollment drop if they are online-only in the fall. (Students paying out of state tuition at public colleges might be in the same situation as private college students.)

You're not getting the elite private university experience you paid $$$ for if classes are online-only and you're just sitting in your parents' home taking courses via a computer. Given that, if a student's expensive private university is online-only in the fall, why wouldn't they save the hefty tuition payment by taking the semester off or taking online courses from a much less expensive college? They can still go back to their private university, and get their degree from that school, in a semester or two after the social distancing measures have been lifted.

At a public university, students paying in-state tuition won't save as much by searching for inexpensive online alternatives, and they are more likely to just take online classes from the college at which they are already enrolled.

Maybe, maybe not. Transfer credits could be a touchy issue. I would think a kid would want to remain connected to the elite private. I'm not talking about middling privates with high tuition, but Rice and Stanford types. Kids will grumble, but they're not going to drop away from Stanford, IMO.

And since I work at a State U i hope you are right, but I doubt it. I think all-online will cut enrollment significantly, many F2F students will simply not want to enroll online.

We shall see.
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2020 01:13 PM by quo vadis.)
04-01-2020 01:11 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(03-29-2020 11:31 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  For the foreseeable future (years, not months), social distancing needs to be considered. The move to on-line education is a method of social distancing. It is difficult to fathom how this will not significantly impact revenues for college athletics. All entertainment industries will be disproportionately hit...Disney, travel, hotels, etc. Regardless of whether games are played with or without fans, revenues will dip as athletics events conform to the new rules of social distancing.

The motel of all places may make a come back due to social distancing. They don't have restaurants, gyms or common areas. Front desk behind bullet proof glass maintains a safe distance.
04-01-2020 01:49 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 01:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 12:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

Yes, if Fall classes cannot be held "face to face", which is much more likely than many like to admit, this is likely to hit enrollment everywhere significantly, as many students will simply not want to do college online.

This could be an existential threat to many schools, there will likely be layoffs and furloughs of even tenured faculty, so athletics will be hit very hard if this happens. This would hit hard even at major P5 schools, and even worse at those down the pecking order in terms of resources.

And "resources" may not necessarily correspond with "P" and "G". For example, a school like Rice, with a $5 Billion endowment, could cover any Covid-related deficits in the Fall, academic and athletic, by dipping in to that. Also, its elite reputation means it is less likely that students will elect to drop out or not enroll, making the enrollment hit lighter.

In contrast, a state school with usually a much larger athletic budget, but a mediocre academic reputation, small endowment and a heavy reliance on ongoing high enrollment to pay for a big operations infrastructure could have to make deep cuts immediately.

Private colleges are *more* likely to see a big enrollment drop if they are online-only in the fall. (Students paying out of state tuition at public colleges might be in the same situation as private college students.)

You're not getting the elite private university experience you paid $$$ for if classes are online-only and you're just sitting in your parents' home taking courses via a computer. Given that, if a student's expensive private university is online-only in the fall, why wouldn't they save the hefty tuition payment by taking the semester off or taking online courses from a much less expensive college? They can still go back to their private university, and get their degree from that school, in a semester or two after the social distancing measures have been lifted.

At a public university, students paying in-state tuition won't save as much by searching for inexpensive online alternatives, and they are more likely to just take online classes from the college at which they are already enrolled.

Maybe, maybe not. Transfer credits could be a touchy issue. I would think a kid would want to remain connected to the elite private. I'm not talking about middling privates with high tuition, but Rice and Stanford types. Kids will grumble, but they're not going to drop away from Stanford, IMO.

And since I work at a State U i hope you are right, but I doubt it. I think all-online will cut enrollment significantly, many F2F students will simply not want to enroll online.

We shall see.

Students are not very connected to their elite private university when they're sitting in their parents' home taking courses via a computer instead of strolling under the shady trees alongside the campus buildings that look like 1970s Taco Bell locations. 05-stirthepot

You may be right that private universities will turn the screws on their students by making it extremely difficult to transfer credits from other colleges during this time. Seems like that would be a poor way to treat your future alumni, though.
04-01-2020 02:30 PM
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Post: #52
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
(04-01-2020 02:30 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 01:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 12:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-01-2020 08:12 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  I think drops in enrollment in the fall and beyond are probably the biggest threat to G5 and lower divisions that rely heavily on student fees and general fund transfers.

Yes, if Fall classes cannot be held "face to face", which is much more likely than many like to admit, this is likely to hit enrollment everywhere significantly, as many students will simply not want to do college online.

This could be an existential threat to many schools, there will likely be layoffs and furloughs of even tenured faculty, so athletics will be hit very hard if this happens. This would hit hard even at major P5 schools, and even worse at those down the pecking order in terms of resources.

And "resources" may not necessarily correspond with "P" and "G". For example, a school like Rice, with a $5 Billion endowment, could cover any Covid-related deficits in the Fall, academic and athletic, by dipping in to that. Also, its elite reputation means it is less likely that students will elect to drop out or not enroll, making the enrollment hit lighter.

In contrast, a state school with usually a much larger athletic budget, but a mediocre academic reputation, small endowment and a heavy reliance on ongoing high enrollment to pay for a big operations infrastructure could have to make deep cuts immediately.

Private colleges are *more* likely to see a big enrollment drop if they are online-only in the fall. (Students paying out of state tuition at public colleges might be in the same situation as private college students.)

You're not getting the elite private university experience you paid $$$ for if classes are online-only and you're just sitting in your parents' home taking courses via a computer. Given that, if a student's expensive private university is online-only in the fall, why wouldn't they save the hefty tuition payment by taking the semester off or taking online courses from a much less expensive college? They can still go back to their private university, and get their degree from that school, in a semester or two after the social distancing measures have been lifted.

At a public university, students paying in-state tuition won't save as much by searching for inexpensive online alternatives, and they are more likely to just take online classes from the college at which they are already enrolled.

Maybe, maybe not. Transfer credits could be a touchy issue. I would think a kid would want to remain connected to the elite private. I'm not talking about middling privates with high tuition, but Rice and Stanford types. Kids will grumble, but they're not going to drop away from Stanford, IMO.

And since I work at a State U i hope you are right, but I doubt it. I think all-online will cut enrollment significantly, many F2F students will simply not want to enroll online.

We shall see.

Students are not very connected to their elite private university when they're sitting in their parents' home taking courses via a computer instead of strolling under the shady trees alongside the campus buildings that look like 1970s Taco Bell locations. 05-stirthepot

You may be right that private universities will turn the screws on their students by making it extremely difficult to transfer credits from other colleges during this time. Seems like that would be a poor way to treat your future alumni, though.

I think quo is right about kids wanting to remain connected to an elite private school. Nobody's taking a chance on not having that Harvard/Yale/Stanford name on their resume. Where I think it becomes a bit less obvious is how many will be willing to pay that kind of top dollar to attend a Creighton/St. Louis/Butler. Is it worth paying Miami $50K a year to sit in your parents basement and take the same online chemistry/biology/English/calculus classes online that you could get by taking it "at" the local community college for $2K a year? How far up the private school rankings will people be willing to go?

But I also think that, if the unemployment rates remain high, lots of people will look into financial aid and take courses somewhere, so I don't expect overall college enrollments to take a giant hit. That said, I think schools in states where population is growing will fare much better than those where the population is dwindling.

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04-01-2020 06:58 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Covid-19 Effect On TV Programming & Financial Consequences
As crazy as it sounds, institutions with large student subsidies may take less of a hit...........
04-01-2020 07:41 PM
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