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CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #61
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(03-30-2020 05:25 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 09:13 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 03:38 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  This will be over by mid-April

Look for the end of May to the end of June for that kind of news... California, Nevada and some of the other SANCTUARY states ot west have yet to get going.

... and I do believe that sanctuary states/cities will get hit the hardest simply due to the higher % of the population that can't afford to stay home without a paycheck.

Ok, end-of-April, max. Folks stir-crazy already.

Work for an independent school division in Texas, and it was just moved from April 10 to May 4 by the governor before the schools are to be reconvened. End of April is not promising.
03-31-2020 10:52 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #62
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
Some of the predictions from the Federal Administration's press conference in Washington D.C. are much more pessimistic than straightforward computations based with the currently available prevalence data from the U.S. Covid-19 pandemic.

For example:

There were about 160,000 U.S. cases at midnight on Monday, 3/30/20, with an average increase of about 20,000 to 25,000 cases (averaging ~22,500 new cases) per day over the 5-6 days, suggesting a trend toward stabilization in the number of new cases.

At that pace, at the peak of the U.S. pandemic, there are unlikely to be more than 1 million U.S. cases, and the number at the peak might be closer to 500,000 cases.

With a mortality rate of 1% to 2%, the total number of deaths due to Covid-19 at the peak of the pandemic would be in the 10,000-20,000 range, plus the number of prior deaths (total might be between 15,000 and 30,000). Depending on how long it would take to reduce the number of cases significantly, there could be another 20,000 to 50,000 deaths, unless the pandemic continues through the Summer and into the Fall.

However, the figure announced in the D.C. press conference ranged between 100,000 and 240,000 Covid-19 deaths, at best.

There is a mismatch between the current prevalence data, the mortality rate data, and the predictions at the D.C. press conference. The mismatch is most likely due to much more pessimistic assumptions about the future course of the pandemic by those who spoke at the press conference.

No one else that I am aware of has been plotting the data with respect to the slowing of the Covid-19 growth curve trajectory in the U.S. That's' why I've been putting the effort into preparing these figures - - I haven't been able to find such figures online.

The failure to note the slowing in the rate of increase or "doubling rate" of Covid-19 in the U.S. results in a much more dire prediction about the future of the pandemic.

If one assumes, for the example, that the number of cases doubles every three days, then, yes, there could be over 750,000 cases (and 10,000) within the next week alone.

But that's not what the data are showing. If the data were supporting that prediction, there would have to be ~60,000 new cases each day right now - but the actual number is closer to ~22,500 in the past few days. With an average increase of ~25,000 new cases per day - and ~190,000 cases at midnight tonight (Tuesday), there would be another ~175,000 cases in 7 days, and the total would not be a million cases, but only about 365,000 cases, minus those cases that recover between today and a week from today.

Up until now, the number of recovered cases has been so small as to have only a trivial effect on the data. But, now that there have been 50,000 Americans with the illness for a week or more, the number of recovered cases is soon going to grow to the extent that it will cause the total number of U.S. cases to diminish below what it would be if no one recovered from the illness.

What this means is that, based on current prevalence data and the total number of new cases today, there might not even be 320,000 cases a week from today, unless the number of new cases per day shoots way up from ~20,000 to ~22,000
03-31-2020 10:55 PM
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smu89 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(03-31-2020 10:55 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  Some of the predictions from the Federal Administration's press conference in Washington D.C. are much more pessimistic than straightforward computations based with the currently available prevalence data from the U.S. Covid-19 pandemic.

For example:

There were about 160,000 U.S. cases at midnight on Monday, 3/30/20, with an average increase of about 20,000 to 25,000 cases (averaging ~22,500 new cases) per day over the 5-6 days, suggesting a trend toward stabilization in the number of new cases.

At that pace, at the peak of the U.S. pandemic, there are unlikely to be more than 1 million U.S. cases, and the number at the peak might be closer to 500,000 cases.

With a mortality rate of 1% to 2%, the total number of deaths due to Covid-19 at the peak of the pandemic would be in the 10,000-20,000 range, plus the number of prior deaths (total might be between 15,000 and 30,000). Depending on how long it would take to reduce the number of cases significantly, there could be another 20,000 to 50,000 deaths, unless the pandemic continues through the Summer and into the Fall.

However, the figure announced in the D.C. press conference ranged between 100,000 and 240,000 Covid-19 deaths, at best.

There is a mismatch between the current prevalence data, the mortality rate data, and the predictions at the D.C. press conference. The mismatch is most likely due to much more pessimistic assumptions about the future course of the pandemic by those who spoke at the press conference.

No one else that I am aware of has been plotting the data with respect to the slowing of the Covid-19 growth curve trajectory in the U.S. That's' why I've been putting the effort into preparing these figures - - I haven't been able to find such figures online.

The failure to note the slowing in the rate of increase or "doubling rate" of Covid-19 in the U.S. results in a much more dire prediction about the future of the pandemic.

If one assumes, for the example, that the number of cases doubles every three days, then, yes, there could be over 750,000 cases (and 10,000) within the next week alone.

But that's not what the data are showing. If the data were supporting that prediction, there would have to be ~60,000 new cases each day right now - but the actual number is closer to ~22,500 in the past few days. With an average increase of ~25,000 new cases per day - and ~190,000 cases at midnight tonight (Tuesday), there would be another ~175,000 cases in 7 days, and the total would not be a million cases, but only about 365,000 cases, minus those cases that recover between today and a week from today.

Up until now, the number of recovered cases has been so small as to have only a trivial effect on the data. But, now that there have been 50,000 Americans with the illness for a week or more, the number of recovered cases is soon going to grow to the extent that it will cause the total number of U.S. cases to diminish below what it would be if no one recovered from the illness.

What this means is that, based on current prevalence data and the total number of new cases today, there might not even be 320,000 cases a week from today, unless the number of new cases per day shoots way up from ~20,000 to ~22,000
The daily DC or White House press conferences that come on about 4 or 4:30 CST are very informative.

During todays, they explained their model and that it is assuming all states react like the data for NY. Thus, the more potentially dire numbers you mentioned.

They had a graph showing each states cases (adj for comparison) w NY being much much higher. They explained NY was late to react while others (like CA) that reacted sooner are trending lower (for now). Implication seemed to be if everyone does what they are supposed to do, we could / should be lower than the 100k.



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03-31-2020 11:15 PM
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smu89 Offline
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Post: #64
CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
https://youtu.be/UieI7lej4N0

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03-31-2020 11:19 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #65
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(03-31-2020 10:52 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 05:25 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 09:13 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 03:38 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  This will be over by mid-April

Look for the end of May to the end of June for that kind of news... California, Nevada and some of the other SANCTUARY states ot west have yet to get going.

... and I do believe that sanctuary states/cities will get hit the hardest simply due to the higher % of the population that can't afford to stay home without a paycheck.

Ok, end-of-April, max. Folks stir-crazy already.

Work for an independent school division in Texas, and it was just moved from April 10 to May 4 by the governor before the schools are to be reconvened. End of April is not promising.

Agree. Even if things go really well, the apex (peak prevalence) seems likely to occur toward the end of April, with upwards of 500,000 cases (possibly many more than that). That's fairly close to what Governor Cuomo predicted today at his press conference.


The U.S. government today predicted that over 100,000 Covid-19 deaths is the most optimistic scenario, which would mean that they're expecting at least 5 million Americans to develop Covid-19. Those numbers seem wildly excessive, unless there is a sudden major surge in Covid-19 cases, with the apex not coming until mid- to late-summer.

But even if the apex comes in late April, that would mean that there would be at least twice as many cases in early May than there are now, barring the unlikely scenario in which the number of new cases drops to zero by the end of April.

We may be able to hope that some of the restrictions can start to be relaxed, in some parts of the country, within a month. But if there are still over 200,000 U.S. cases in early May, as there will be on Wednesday evening (4/1/20), people are going to have to be as careful as they have to be right now.

If everything should go exceedingly well, we might be able to have fewer than 50,000 U.S. cases by June 1st, maybe even less than 20,000 cases by then.

More encouragingly, if hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin therapy is as effective as some have suggested, it may turn out that, by early to mid-May, the mortality rate could be cut to well below 1%, and by mid-June, the risk for death due to Covid-19 might be much lower than that.

If that happens, the consequences of getting sick with Covid-19 may drop considerably. But, for right now, we can't necessarily expect that to be the case. It's just a possibility.
03-31-2020 11:22 PM
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Post: #66
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
============================================

Here is the estimated trend in doubling times, indicating that the amount of time for the number of U.S. cases to double has increased significantly since March 20th, 2020:

ESTIMATED U.S. COVID-19 DOUBLING TIMES
FROM BASELINE DATA ON 3/20 - 3/30/20

7.0 days
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4.(Based on 48 hours of data)................................(5.99 to 6.41 days).*
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9.(Based on 72 hours of data)................................(~5.88 days).*
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5.(Based on 96 hours of data)........................(~5.52 days).*
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0 days
4.9
4.8
4.7.(based on 120 hours of data).............(~4.70 days).*
4.6
4.5.(based on 120 hours of data).....(~4.15 days).*
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0 days
3.9
3.8
3.7......................................(~3.74 days).*
3.6
3.5
3.4 ............................(~3.35 days).*
3.3
3.2.........................(3.2 days).*
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8.............(~2.8 days).*
2.7.....(~2.7 days).*
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2 days*......* (~2.2 days; no change in doubling rate)
2.0

........3/20..3/21..3/22..3/23..3/24..3/25..3/26..3/27..3/28..3/29..3/30..3/31
NOTE: The dates 3/20-3/28 are the "baseline" or starting point comparison dates.


This chart shows the approximate (estimated) number of days that it took - or is predicted to take - for the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double from each date (including the baseline dates 3/20/20 through 3/29/20).


============================================

These findings suggest that the time required for the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double (i.e., the "doubling time") has continued to increase.


============================================

Another update:

The graph at the link below confirms that the trend in the U.S. growth curve has started to show the predicted flattening trend observed in the other nations of the world reporting prevalence data

NOTE: The graph at the link below is based on a a different metric for change in growth trajectory, a moving average, rather than on number of cases per day. Thus, it shows that the # of U.S. has slowed from its prior rate of doubling every two days. The data are consistent with those in the graph above, but the graph is based on a moving average to smooth out the data curve and summarize the overall trend without highlighting the most recent changes in prevalence.

That's why the graph above was prepared for those who are interested in the most recent trends in the trajectory data.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid...ountry=CHN
(This post was last modified: 04-02-2020 03:10 AM by jedclampett.)
04-01-2020 10:31 PM
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Post: #67
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
Important update:

The total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases that is being reported (currently 215,344) includes 3 categories of cases:

1) Currently active cases (201,354 when this is being posted on 4/2/20).

2) Recovered cases (8,878 when posted on 4/2/20).

3) Deaths attributed to Covid-19 (5,112 at the same time on 4/2/20).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-------

What is important about this information?

1) When you see the term "Total number of Covid-19 cases," it refers to the total number of persons who have or have had the disease. Strictly speaking, this is referred to in epidemiology as the "cumulative prevalence" of Covid-19.

2) The cumulative prevalence is higher than the current or "point" prevalence of Covid-19, and the longer the pandemic goes on, the less and less the total cumulative prevalence will tell us about the current prevalence of the disease.

3) The total number of currently active cases is much more important than the number of past cases (including those who have recovered) in estimating the future trajectory of the pandemic.

4) Including "recovered" cases in charts that are intended to be used to help guage effectiveness of Covid-19 prevention efforts obscures, rather than clarifying the changes in current Covid-19 prevalence from day to day.


Q: Does this mean that the upward trajectory in the number of cases that we're seeing in most graphs is being exaggerated, due to the misguided inclusion of recovered cases in the graphs?

A: Yes.

Q: How can we correct for this, to have a better idea of how well our prevention efforts (social distancing, sheltering in place, etc.) are working to date?

A. Until we begin to see graphs that distinguish between current and past cases, the best we can do is use available data on recovered cases from other sources.

Q: Are records being kept as accurately about recovered cases as they're being kept about deaths and current cases?

A: No. Of all the patients diagnosed with Covid-19, only a subset (mostly those with severe cases that resulted in hospitalization) have had their outcomes tracked and recorded.

Q: So the actual number of recovered cases could be substantially higher than the number of recovered cases that have been confirmed to be recovered?

A: Correct, although this won't become fully apparent for another week or two, until it has been at least two weeks since most of the persons with Covid-19 first developed the illness. In the coming weeks, the total number of recovered cases will approach and then surpass the total number of active cases.

Q: The graphs that have been charting the growth curve trajectory of Covid-19 in the U.S. and overseas - - have they been sorting out the recovered cases?

A: Generally, no, they haven't, partly because most nations haven't had a huge number of recovered cases yet.

Q: Isn't the purpose of a "growth curve trajectory" graph to plot the growth in the number of "active" as opposed to "past or present" cases?

A: Yes, insofar as the goal is to use the growth curve trajectories to make predictions about the future impact of the illness on each nation, and to gauge the effectiveness of interventions or need for additional interventions.

Q: Let's say we start now, by only including the active Covid-19 cases in the U.S. growth curve figures. What would that tell us?

A: It would tell us several things:

1) That the slopes in most of the growth curve figures that have been published to date have suggested that the prevalence of current Covid-19 cases has been growing slightly to somewhat more quickly than it actually has.

2) That the total number of active U.S. Covid-19 cases (201,686) has been somewhat lower than most of the published graphs and reports have suggested.

For example, when it is reported that the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases is over 215,000 in the morning of April 2nd, 2020, this is misleading, because it includes persons who recovered from the disease and those who succumbed to it.

The actual total number of active U.S. Covid-19 cases is 7.5% lower than the overall total number of (past and present) cases, but no one has been making that clear as of yet.

3) It has taken more than 5 days for the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double since March 28th, when the total number of cases was reported to be 104,686.

Q: How does this compare with the current charts that show the time it takes the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double?

A: The current charts indicate that, at present, it is only taking 3 days for the number of U.S. cases to double.

Q: What is the reason for the discrepancy, if it is clear that it took at least 5 days for the 104,686 cases to double?

A: The main reason is that those charts have been exaggerating the rate of increase in the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases, because they have been plotted based on the day to day "moving averages" in the numbers of cases. Since the doubling times in early March were as low as two days, those numbers have had an undue (and distorting) impact on the growth curve trajectory plots in the graphs.

Q: Is it ok to plot growth curve data using "moving averages" rather than actual numbers of active cases from day to day?

A: Both kinds of charts can be used to plot changes over time in any outcome of interest. Some people are particularly interested in moving averages (such as in charting prices in the stock markets) but they provide different kinds information.

However, it is misleading to present a graph based on moving averages without making it clear to the reader that the growth curve trajectory looks much steeper when it is based on a moving average with a very rapid initial rate of increase.

While a moving average can be useful by emphasizing the central tendency in the data, and smoothing the curve (making it look less jagged and more regular), it has the disadvantage of obscuring potentially informative changes in the data that should not be ignored.

In the case of plotting the growth curve trajectory for U.S. Covid-19 cases, it would have been better to plot the actual increases in the "point prevalences" for each date, rather than combining these numbers into "moving averages."

When the actual increases in prevalence are used, rather than the moving averages, they show that, while Covid-19 has been increasing steadily in prevalence in the U.S. during the past three weeks, there has been much more progress in reducing the rate of increase in Covid-19 cases than the charts displaying moving averages have suggested.

Specifically, while the charts based on the moving averages suggest that the number of U.S. cases is doubling every three days, the actual doubling time that is calculated on the basis of the point prevalence on each specific date shows that - as of the past 5-6 days, it has actually begun to take more than four days for the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double. It has taken 5 days for the number of Covid-19 cases on March 28th to double, as of 4/2/20, and, with an estimated average increase of ~28,000 cases per day, based on the current rate of increase in new cases, it is mostly likely that the actual doubling time will soon approach 6 days (i.e., the current rate of increase in new cases supports an estimate of 5.88 days for the 164,620 U.S. cases reported at midnight on March 31st to double).

Q: Why does this matter?

A: It matters because it tells us that our efforts to slow the rate of increase in the number of active Covid-19 cases in the U.S. are starting to have the desired effect. This tells us that we should keep at it, and that if we do, the growth trajectory can be flattened more quickly than many may realize.

Q: Will that be the end of the Covid-19 epidemic?

A: No, but it will be a key step forward. Once the rate of growth is flattened out to the point that it takes more than two weeks for the number of active Covid-19 cases in the U.S. to double, there will be one recovered case for every new case, and the number of active cases will stop growing at that point.

Data from China and South Korea has shown that continuing the prevention efforts (social distancing, washing thoroughly, wearing face masks, self-quarantining upon infection with Covid-19) would most likely cause the number of new cases to decrease each week.

------

So, there are two types of important milestones to work toward:

1) Keep increasing the doubling time until it takes more than two weeks for the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double. We've already increased it from 2 days to 5 days, and we've done that since the middle of March. That was the hardest part. Now, the slowing of the growth trajectory is coming along in bigger chunks of time. When it takes more than two weeks to double, it will stop doubling altogether and the growth in the size of the epidemic will cease, because there will then be one newly recovered patient for every new case of Covid-19 (i.e, zero "net" new U.S. cases).

2) Maintain the very same efforts that are gradually slowing the rate of growth, because once the rate of growth is brought to zero, continuing to make the same efforts will cause the number of new Covid-19 cases to decline.

3) There are some promising developments in medical research that are likely to improve patient outcomes and hasten recovery from the disease. In addition, there is some possibility that medical research will help to prevent Americans from developing Covid-19 in the not-too-distant future. For example, a top researcher stated on a major network at 11 pm Wednesday evening that an important research breakthrough with respect to an existing (already FDA approved) anti-viral vaccine is likely to be announced before the end of this week.
04-02-2020 05:33 AM
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GoOwls111 Offline
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Post: #68
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(03-31-2020 11:22 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 10:52 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 05:25 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  
(03-30-2020 09:13 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 03:38 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  This will be over by mid-April

Look for the end of May to the end of June for that kind of news... California, Nevada and some of the other SANCTUARY states ot west have yet to get going.

... and I do believe that sanctuary states/cities will get hit the hardest simply due to the higher % of the population that can't afford to stay home without a paycheck.

Ok, end-of-April, max. Folks stir-crazy already.

Work for an independent school division in Texas, and it was just moved from April 10 to May 4 by the governor before the schools are to be reconvened. End of April is not promising.

Agree. Even if things go really well, the apex (peak prevalence) seems likely to occur toward the end of April, with upwards of 500,000 cases (possibly many more than that). That's fairly close to what Governor Cuomo predicted today at his press conference.


The U.S. government today predicted that over 100,000 Covid-19 deaths is the most optimistic scenario, which would mean that they're expecting at least 5 million Americans to develop Covid-19. Those numbers seem wildly excessive, unless there is a sudden major surge in Covid-19 cases, with the apex not coming until mid- to late-summer.

But even if the apex comes in late April, that would mean that there would be at least twice as many cases in early May than there are now, barring the unlikely scenario in which the number of new cases drops to zero by the end of April.

We may be able to hope that some of the restrictions can start to be relaxed, in some parts of the country, within a month. But if there are still over 200,000 U.S. cases in early May, as there will be on Wednesday evening (4/1/20), people are going to have to be as careful as they have to be right now.

If everything should go exceedingly well, we might be able to have fewer than 50,000 U.S. cases by June 1st, maybe even less than 20,000 cases by then.

More encouragingly, if hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin therapy is as effective as some have suggested, it may turn out that, by early to mid-May, the mortality rate could be cut to well below 1%, and by mid-June, the risk for death due to Covid-19 might be much lower than that.

If that happens, the consequences of getting sick with Covid-19 may drop considerably. But, for right now, we can't necessarily expect that to be the case. It's just a possibility.

The problem with NYS is that both the Governor (Andrew Cuomo) and the Mayor of NYC ("STUPID" Bill de Blasio... Whose real Name is Warren Wilhelm Jr) just don,t get the importance of closing the parks, and public transportation, in a way they are putting political interests and the $$$$ ahead of human lives... They do have all the right excuses for not doing it; cough, cough.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/nyc-map-sh...-zip-code/

All the highest concentration of infections are areas that rely on public transportation and are near parks ans playgrounds that are heavily used.

It took them at least an extra 3 weeks to shut down the public schools, and NYC waited until a month after all private and surrounding counties had closed their public schools.


In short, shut the **** down for 3 weeks and put a huge dent in this epidemic!!!!!
04-02-2020 07:58 AM
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Pony94 Online
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
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A 9-game conference-only CFB regular season; a season starting in Oct./Nov. & ending in Feb./March; or a spring football season w/@CFBPlayoff games in May. These are some of the options ADs told @Stadium they are considering if start to season is delayed
04-02-2020 11:13 AM
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
AAC commssioner Mike Aresco on coronavirus impact: ‘I hope it doesn’t come to anybody having to cut any sports’


It was the morning of March 12 when the American Athletic Conference announced that it would be canceling its conference basketball tournament because of coronavirus concerns.

It was the first conference to do so that day.

Every other conference followed suit — including conferences that had pledged earlier in the day to play, and several that had already tipped off its games.


That was the day the sports world shut down, and conference commissioner Mike Aresco was the first that morning to make a cancellation call.

Three weeks later, he spoke with The Dallas Morning News on a number of topics, including the league’s move to D-FW, the possibility of playing a football season, and if there’s a risk that non-revenue sports will have to be cut from athletic department budgets.

He noted that there has not been, to his knowledge, anyone associated with the conference who has tested positive for COVID-19.

Here’s a breakdown of the interview:

Possibility of football season getting canceled: Aresco said the sense he gets is that sometime in June, a decision will have to be made about whether a college football season will happen, and in what capacity.

Among the biggest issues, Aresco said, is making sure the players are in proper shape for the beginning of a football season in late August.

“The best advice right now seems to be that you need 6-8 weeks once they get going again to get them in the kind of shape they need to be in,” Aresco said. "The feeling is you would need that time.”


The other unknown is what individual schools will be doing in terms of having students back to campus or not. Some schools, including football powerhouses like Ohio State and Auburn, have moved to online classes for the summer.

If students aren’t allowed on campus, it would be tough to gear up for a football season.

Aresco was asked if there could be a season without some sort of viable virus treatment. He didn’t know the answer. He said he hoped for a “miracle vaccine” and increased testing to give us a better idea of what we’re dealing with.

“It does seem to me,” Aresco said, “utilizing common sense, it would be hard to proceed if the virus is out there and we still have certain protocols in place.”

Could non-revenue sports be cut?: Because the NCAA Tournament didn’t happen, money that schools rely on from the NCAA was much lower this year. That could have a significant impact on the budgets of schools. And there’s a concern across college athletics that it might mean some non-revenue sports might have to be cut.

“I hope not,” Aresco said when asked if that was a possibility in the AAC. “I think we’re a healthy conference. We’re stable financially. We’ve got a good reserve. We could look at lines of credit because we’re credit-worthy. There’s other things that we have that we could potentially utilize. We’re hoping that doesn’t happen.”

Aresco then pointed out that the biggest risk financially would be losing out on a football season. The AAC is partnered with ESPN to broadcast games — a big revenue boost — and no football could also mean the basketball season is impacted.

“Football would be a big blow,” Aresco said.

Thoughts on NCAA allowing spring athletes an extra year of eligibility: Since spring sports were canceled so early, the NCAA announced Monday that all spring athletes would retain the year of eligibility, and that seniors hoping to return would still be able to receive a scholarship even if it exceeded previous limits.

“It was what we expected, and it was probably the right decision, because what it does is it restores a year of eligibility without having to seek individual waivers,” Aresco said. “And then giving the schools some flexibility on financial aid I think was very important. It could lead to some controversial decisions, and there’s no question that it’s not the easiest thing in the world to deal with. But I think the schools needed that flexibility.”

League’s move to D-FW might be delayed: Currently, the AAC office is located in Providence, R.I., — far away from the footprint of the rest of the league. Now that UConn is moving to the Big East, the AAC office planned to move to Irving’s Las Colinas in mid-to-late June.

The coronavirus has upended those plans. All of the league’s staff is working remotely — Aresco jokingly declined to specify where he staying.

Construction on office space might be delayed, complicating the timing of a move.

“We just don’t know yet what the travel advisories are going to be, what the lockdown situation — stay at home — those protocols in place, however you want to describe them,” Aresco said. “We don’t know if they’re gonna still be in place, so we’re not sure whether any movement can happen at the time in June.”

The alternatives could be that they remain working remotely, or stay in Providence. Aresco said the league is willing to move in the middle of the academic season.
04-02-2020 12:47 PM
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WhalerFan Offline
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
ESPN Furloughs coming today. Getting nasty out there.
04-03-2020 08:00 AM
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CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(04-02-2020 11:13 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  @Brett_McMurphy
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A 9-game conference-only CFB regular season; a season starting in Oct./Nov. & ending in Feb./March; or a spring football season w/@CFBPlayoff games in May. These are some of the options ADs told @Stadium they are considering if start to season is delayed


Once it’s safe to start back up... I think we’ll all be very glad to celebrate with some big in-person get-togethers. I’m glad they’re working through the scenarios now because however/whenever it’s done it certainly won’t be ‘business as usual’

Opening day - for all sports - is going to be one to remember...
04-03-2020 10:57 AM
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CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
For those of you who love data (looking at you, Jed)... this site has been publishing some absolutely fantastic data since mid-March or earlier.

The company has sold millions of internet-enabled thermometers. The last few years they’ve been making their aggregate County-level data public... in order to give health care and the public a heads up on where the flu is spreading... 2 or 3 days before people start showing up at the doctor or hospital!
Guess what... the same trick works for Covid... and the fever spike Profile for covid is different enough from flu that they have separate maps now for flu and covid (“atypical” is what they call it on the website, but in 2020, atypical-from-flu means covid).
Here’s the stale good news from last Tuesday. THE TAKEAWAY IS THAT SHELTER IN PLACE AND SCHOOL CLOSURES WORKS.
By last Tuesday every county in the country was seeing a DROP in new atypical (covid) fever spikes. Remember this data is about 2-3 days ahead of any new case reports.

Photo from site, undated, but I remember seeing this in a news article that day:
[Image: 2dd9f6f8fa48beebd292366ab3377d2f.jpg]

Bad news is that it looks like some rural counties may be rising again. Looks to me like those are the ones that haven’t implemented stay-at-home yet. My message to them is do so ASAP, nationwide.
[Image: d7b642fc76dbb49ff4a5221ea4c95904.jpg]
To me this looks like the third wave of cases in the US. Hopefully we are better prepared now to recognize it and mitigate it.

Here’s a view showing pretty much data we already know: atypical new cases based on thermometer data. This shows all the known hotspots but since no counties have spiked positive in the last week, I don’t see any new hotspots. Except maybe one in one County in Maine.
[Image: dce22b1329028379f6df7db7a791d162.jpg]

Here’s a couple of links to their site. Recommended reading if you’re into data, or if your job description depends on it (health workers, public servants, politicians...)

https://healthweather.us/?mode=Trends

https://www.kinsahealth.co/images-and-in...-and-data/

Stay safe out there, try to be positive, and be kind to each other.
04-03-2020 11:25 AM
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
@gmraynor
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Dabo Swinney says Americans have stormed the beaches of Normandy, put man on the moon and created an iPhone. Says this is the greatest country in the history of the universe. Has no doubt football will play, says he's excited to see Death Valley rocking.
04-03-2020 01:15 PM
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(03-31-2020 11:15 PM)smu89 Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 10:55 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  Some of the predictions from the Federal Administration's press conference in Washington D.C. are much more pessimistic than straightforward computations based with the currently available prevalence data from the U.S. Covid-19 pandemic.

For example:

There were about 160,000 U.S. cases at midnight on Monday, 3/30/20, with an average increase of about 20,000 to 25,000 cases (averaging ~22,500 new cases) per day over the 5-6 days, suggesting a trend toward stabilization in the number of new cases.

At that pace, at the peak of the U.S. pandemic, there are unlikely to be more than 1 million U.S. cases, and the number at the peak might be closer to 500,000 cases.

With a mortality rate of 1% to 2%, the total number of deaths due to Covid-19 at the peak of the pandemic would be in the 10,000-20,000 range, plus the number of prior deaths (total might be between 15,000 and 30,000). Depending on how long it would take to reduce the number of cases significantly, there could be another 20,000 to 50,000 deaths, unless the pandemic continues through the Summer and into the Fall.

However, the figure announced in the D.C. press conference ranged between 100,000 and 240,000 Covid-19 deaths, at best.

There is a mismatch between the current prevalence data, the mortality rate data, and the predictions at the D.C. press conference. The mismatch is most likely due to much more pessimistic assumptions about the future course of the pandemic by those who spoke at the press conference.

No one else that I am aware of has been plotting the data with respect to the slowing of the Covid-19 growth curve trajectory in the U.S. That's' why I've been putting the effort into preparing these figures - - I haven't been able to find such figures online.

The failure to note the slowing in the rate of increase or "doubling rate" of Covid-19 in the U.S. results in a much more dire prediction about the future of the pandemic.

If one assumes, for the example, that the number of cases doubles every three days, then, yes, there could be over 750,000 cases (and 10,000) within the next week alone.

But that's not what the data are showing. If the data were supporting that prediction, there would have to be ~60,000 new cases each day right now - but the actual number is closer to ~22,500 in the past few days. With an average increase of ~25,000 new cases per day - and ~190,000 cases at midnight tonight (Tuesday), there would be another ~175,000 cases in 7 days, and the total would not be a million cases, but only about 365,000 cases, minus those cases that recover between today and a week from today.

Up until now, the number of recovered cases has been so small as to have only a trivial effect on the data. But, now that there have been 50,000 Americans with the illness for a week or more, the number of recovered cases is soon going to grow to the extent that it will cause the total number of U.S. cases to diminish below what it would be if no one recovered from the illness.

What this means is that, based on current prevalence data and the total number of new cases today, there might not even be 320,000 cases a week from today, unless the number of new cases per day shoots way up from ~20,000 to ~22,000
The daily DC or White House press conferences that come on about 4 or 4:30 CST are very informative.

During todays, they explained their model and that it is assuming all states react like the data for NY. Thus, the more potentially dire numbers you mentioned.

They had a graph showing each states cases (adj for comparison) w NY being much much higher. They explained NY was late to react while others (like CA) that reacted sooner are trending lower (for now). Implication seemed to be if everyone does what they are supposed to do, we could / should be lower than the 100k.



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This post sounds kink of political.
04-03-2020 07:43 PM
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(03-31-2020 11:15 PM)smu89 Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 10:55 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  Some of the predictions from the Federal Administration's press conference in Washington D.C. are much more pessimistic than straightforward computations based with the currently available prevalence data from the U.S. Covid-19 pandemic.

For example:

There were about 160,000 U.S. cases at midnight on Monday, 3/30/20, with an average increase of about 20,000 to 25,000 cases (averaging ~22,500 new cases) per day over the 5-6 days, suggesting a trend toward stabilization in the number of new cases.

At that pace, at the peak of the U.S. pandemic, there are unlikely to be more than 1 million U.S. cases, and the number at the peak might be closer to 500,000 cases.

With a mortality rate of 1% to 2%, the total number of deaths due to Covid-19 at the peak of the pandemic would be in the 10,000-20,000 range, plus the number of prior deaths (total might be between 15,000 and 30,000). Depending on how long it would take to reduce the number of cases significantly, there could be another 20,000 to 50,000 deaths, unless the pandemic continues through the Summer and into the Fall.

However, the figure announced in the D.C. press conference ranged between 100,000 and 240,000 Covid-19 deaths, at best.

There is a mismatch between the current prevalence data, the mortality rate data, and the predictions at the D.C. press conference. The mismatch is most likely due to much more pessimistic assumptions about the future course of the pandemic by those who spoke at the press conference.

No one else that I am aware of has been plotting the data with respect to the slowing of the Covid-19 growth curve trajectory in the U.S. That's' why I've been putting the effort into preparing these figures - - I haven't been able to find such figures online.

The failure to note the slowing in the rate of increase or "doubling rate" of Covid-19 in the U.S. results in a much more dire prediction about the future of the pandemic.

If one assumes, for the example, that the number of cases doubles every three days, then, yes, there could be over 750,000 cases (and 10,000) within the next week alone.

But that's not what the data are showing. If the data were supporting that prediction, there would have to be ~60,000 new cases each day right now - but the actual number is closer to ~22,500 in the past few days. With an average increase of ~25,000 new cases per day - and ~190,000 cases at midnight tonight (Tuesday), there would be another ~175,000 cases in 7 days, and the total would not be a million cases, but only about 365,000 cases, minus those cases that recover between today and a week from today.

Up until now, the number of recovered cases has been so small as to have only a trivial effect on the data. But, now that there have been 50,000 Americans with the illness for a week or more, the number of recovered cases is soon going to grow to the extent that it will cause the total number of U.S. cases to diminish below what it would be if no one recovered from the illness.

What this means is that, based on current prevalence data and the total number of new cases today, there might not even be 320,000 cases a week from today, unless the number of new cases per day shoots way up from ~20,000 to ~22,000
The daily DC or White House press conferences that come on about 4 or 4:30 CST are very informative.

During todays, they explained their model and that it is assuming all states react like the data for NY. Thus, the more potentially dire numbers you mentioned.

They had a graph showing each states cases (adj for comparison) w NY being much much higher. They explained NY was late to react while others (like CA) that reacted sooner are trending lower (for now). Implication seemed to be if everyone does what they are supposed to do, we could / should be lower than the 100k.



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This post sounds kind of political.
Not you Jed.
(This post was last modified: 04-03-2020 07:44 PM by sierrajip.)
04-03-2020 07:43 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #77
RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
(04-03-2020 01:15 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  @gmraynor
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Dabo Swinney says Americans have stormed the beaches of Normandy, put man on the moon and created an iPhone. Says this is the greatest country in the history of the universe. Has no doubt football will play, says he's excited to see Death Valley rocking.

Nice PR.
04-03-2020 07:52 PM
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
.

Here is a graph depicting the recent trend in the Covid-19 doubling time in the U.S. (the number of days that it has taken for the number of active/current Covid-19 cases to double), which has been increasing over the past two weeks.



.png  COVID CHART WITH AXIS LABELED.png (Size: 177.93 KB / Downloads: 18)


If anyone knows if it's possible for this graph could be made to open automatically, please let me know. Thanks.


What the graph shows is that, despite the continued increases in the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases, it has been taking longer and longer for the number of active/current U.S. Covid-19 cases to double.

It only took two days for the number of U.S. cases on March 18th to double. In contrast, data available on April 3rd indicated that the number of U.S. cases on March 31st is not likely to double until April 6th or 7th, approximately one week later.

Please note that one of the reasons why the doubling rate has continued to slow is that the number of active cases has been starting to diverge from the cumulative total number of all recorded cases, a larger and larger proportion of which have resolved either in mortality or recovery (over 80% of Covid-19 patients recover within two weeks).

For those who are interested, the current figure of total (cumulative prevalence of) U.S. cases is approximately 280,000 as of this writing, but the total number of active/current cases is about 260,000 cases.

The difference of 20,000 cases may seem relatively modest right now, but will soon begin to soar, and close to 100,000 of the cumulative total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases will have recovered by the middle of April.

To clarify the point, consider this:

On April 2nd, there were an estimated 28,819 new U.S. Covid-19 cases, but there were also an estimated 3,455 newly resolved U.S. Covid-19 cases (including those deceased and those newly recovered).

Thus, the net number of active Covid-19 cases increased by 25,364, not by 28,819, because the 3,455 newly resolved cases partially offset the 28,819 new cases.

One might shrug this off by noting that the number of newly resolved cases was only about 15% of the number of new U.S Covid-19 cases, but note this: Four days ago, there were less than 1,000 newly resolved U.S. cases. The number of newly resolved U.S. cases is on track to surpass 6,000 on April 3rd, and to rise steeply after that.

Our knowledge of the number of new cases each day in the past month makes it clear that, within approximately two weeks, the number will grow to over 30,000 newly resolved U.S. cases per day.

At that point, the growth rate in the number of new cases will begin to be significantly or largely offset by the growth rate in the number of newly resolved U.S. cases.

Eventually, the number of new cases should begin to slow down and to be surpassed by the number of newly resolved cases. At that point, the total number of active U.S. cases will begin to diminish. How long this process takes will depend on how effectively Americans practice social distancing and use the entire range of protective measures.

A large part of the country still hasn't gotten on board with the preventive measures. The slowdown in the rate of transmission that we're all looking forward to will depend to some extent on wider adoption of the preventative measures.
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2020 07:14 AM by jedclampett.)
04-04-2020 02:58 AM
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RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
Jed

We need an update. I am counting on this thread for all my "rona" updates.

I trust you more than all the hacks on the tele.

Thanks
04-07-2020 09:41 AM
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CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
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