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Research Triangle to the SEC
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Erictelevision Online
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Research Triangle to the SEC
Wouldn't it make sense for the SEC to expand into NC? Adding those schools expands the footprint, inarguably improves academics, and you add 2 blue blood hoops programs (though UNC is down this year)
03-18-2020 10:19 AM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
I think they'd be fine additions but if I were the SEC my eyes would be on Texas and Oklahoma first (same if I were the Big Ten). Texas is a more valuable school and they are available sooner from their grant of rights agreement than the Carolina schools.
03-18-2020 11:08 AM
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Erictelevision Online
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
True. Which rivalry would go to the SEC:

Red River Shootout or Bedlam? I'd guess RRS.
03-18-2020 11:11 AM
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ken d Online
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 10:19 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wouldn't it make sense for the SEC to expand into NC? Adding those schools expands the footprint, inarguably improves academics, and you add 2 blue blood hoops programs (though UNC is down this year)

Wouldn't it make sense for whom? It takes two to tango.
03-18-2020 11:42 AM
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schmolik Online
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 11:42 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 10:19 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Wouldn't it make sense for the SEC to expand into NC? Adding those schools expands the footprint, inarguably improves academics, and you add 2 blue blood hoops programs (though UNC is down this year)

Wouldn't it make sense for whom? It takes two to tango.

Once the ACC's GOR ends, you would think both the Big Ten and SEC would be pursuing UNC/Duke. There is a stereotype that the Big Ten schools are better academically. I'd guess both schools if they had a choice between the two would choose the Big Ten. On the other hand, there will likely be two media deals before then and the revenue gap between the SEC and Big Ten could be as wide as the difference between the Big Ten and ACC and it would be too much for Carolina/Duke to pass up.
03-18-2020 11:57 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
I would think the SEC would like to have North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Clemson, Florida St, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. That's 22. Throw in two of Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech for 24.
03-18-2020 12:01 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
Um, sure, UNC and Duke would be great additions to the SEC.

Problem is, neither has any interest in joining the SEC and would only do so under extreme circumstances, like the total collapse of the ACC.
03-18-2020 12:07 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
If you asked the SEC which teams they'd want in a vacuum from the ACC right now they'd give a heavily media market influenced answer along the lines of NC State, Virginia Tech, and Florida State. This is impossible because politically NCST-UNC-Duke function as a single unit. Which brings is to the point OP makes. But if you force the SEC to answer that question again but you have to go all or none on the Triangle ... I think they go none. New answer: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson. If you asked the SEC which teams they'd want for the long haul of profitability and not just today's fading financial fashion of conference TV channels, they'd probably give you a different answer yet again: Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech.

Obviously I'm biased, but I think it will be easier for the SEC to go league scale than it will be to cherry pick what few remaining assets are out that which guarantee a much higher TV payout (TX, OU, maybe that's it?). The nature of the beast at the P5 level is that unless you're making a call up from the G5 making a raid tends to come with political baggage which tends to force you to take smaller schools along with the big prize ones. It's as hard to see TX and OU peeling off by themselves as it is to see NC State peeling off by itself. Taking it league scale is largely a consolidation of Disney assets at this point: Big 12 + SEC + ACC. If there is ever going to be trimming of lighter class divisions within the P5 this is when it would happen.... otherwise the Wake Forests and Vanderbilts and Baylors will have the ultimate in grandfather deals in sports. I think even trimming those will be tricky because as we've already seen once with Baylor and Virginia Tech state legislatures or governors can get a bit upset over being left out and force you to keep them in. Having a total monopoly on the second most popular sport in America where most of its viewership is located will be very lucrative. You will bring new high demand inventory into the system by avoiding having non-overlapping assets (conferences) that exist within the same parent media company (Disney): TX-TAMU, KU-MIZZOU, Clemson-UGA, TX-Arkansas, GT-SC, GT-Auburn, VT-TN, GT-TN, TN-NC, NC-SC, the list goes on and on and on. Many of these games are ones that will sell out even when teams are having destitute seasons. They'll sell out in non-revenue sports even. You're bringing A LOT more gate revenue and all the associated income streams that go with it to the balance sheet. If it turns out that all this extra money isn't more, you mitigate the lower average income per team by compensating each team based upon what they actually brought to the table in TV viewership. This has some built in welfare in that the bigs play the smalls and that inflates their averages, and can be run through an arbitrary but simple formula to increase or decrease the spread from median to meet whatever is politically acceptable to membership.
03-18-2020 12:31 PM
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Erictelevision Online
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
Quo: I agree that they're happy in the ACC. Like most of my threads, this is just a thought experiment.
03-18-2020 12:45 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
I think there’s absolutely room for the two revenue giants, the Big Ten and SEC, to explore business models that would put them at 18, 20, or even 24 members in order to control an even bigger share of the top brands in college athletics but also to shore up enough inventory volume to make them valuable for streaming.

18: 3 divisions of 6
20 4 divisions of 5
24: 3 divisions of 8, 4 divisions of 6, 6 pods of 4

If something like this happens this would permit the SEC to absorb a fairly substantial chunk of the ACC And some choice Big 12 schools.

Similarly, the Big 10 could grab a portion of the PAC 12, or focus on ND, Northern ACC schools, and former Big 8 members.
03-18-2020 01:08 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 12:31 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If you asked the SEC which teams they'd want in a vacuum from the ACC right now they'd give a heavily media market influenced answer along the lines of NC State, Virginia Tech, and Florida State.

I'd say the rank-ordering of teams from the ACC the SEC would like would be:

1) UNC ... by a wide margin.

2) Duke ...... for hoops and academics.

3) Clemson ... for football and academics.

But really, UNC is the big prize, as the SEC wants state flagships above all else, and they are a state flagship with excellent academics and athletics, a national name brand, bring the growing NC market, really everything you want in a school. But a UNC - Duke pair would be awesome for the SEC.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 01:17 PM by quo vadis.)
03-18-2020 01:13 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) UNC ... by a wide margin.

2) Duke ...... for hoops and academics.

3) Clemson ... for football and academics.

Steve Spurrier charity voting aside from the SEC viewpoint Duke wouldn't crack the Top 5 in the ACC that they would expand with. Duke makes Vandy look serious in football.
03-18-2020 01:19 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  1) UNC ... by a wide margin.

2) Duke ...... for hoops and academics.

3) Clemson ... for football and academics.

Steve Spurrier charity voting aside from the SEC viewpoint Duke wouldn't crack the Top 5 in the ACC that they would expand with. Duke makes Vandy look serious in football.

Yes, football is usually the 900 pound gorilla of these things, but the SEC has football in spades. A school saying it brings football to the SEC is like me saying I can bring sand and oil to Saudi Arabia. That's why Clemson isn't at the top of the list either, or FSU.

Duke brings things that the SEC has less of - a presence in North Carolina, great academics, and blue-chip basketball- a nationally -recognized brand name.

So I stand by my opinion, LOL.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 01:25 PM by quo vadis.)
03-18-2020 01:23 PM
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Erictelevision Online
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
Would Wake be of ANY interest? I suspect not. Their football is terrible and basketball fell off a cliff after Timmy graduated.
03-18-2020 01:31 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 01:31 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Would Wake be of ANY interest? I suspect not. Their football is terrible and basketball fell off a cliff after Timmy graduated.

Wake Forest would be of interest if the University of Texas insisted upon bringing them as a tag-along. Outside of that, Wake would never increase the per school payout, thus making them a non-starter. The same goes for any school not named Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, or Florida State. Even Clemson does not make sense for the SEC to add on their own from a financial standpoint.

GTS was correct above; any plausible ACC add to the SEC has to involve FSU in some capacity.
03-18-2020 01:57 PM
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Erictelevision Online
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
Would/could the U tag along with FSU?
03-18-2020 02:05 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 02:05 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Would/could the U tag along with FSU?

Eric, I get where you are going with this because it is a fun exercise in terms of what could be for sports culture in the southern U.S. The bottom line is that FSU is a slight improvement in the per school payout for all current SEC schools. FSU along with either Clemson, Virginia, Duke, or (not and) UNC would be break-even to a slight loss per school payout. In the current climate, I do not see any other combinations that make business sense for the SEC.

For context, the SEC has 10 schools who averaged more than $120 million in athletic revenue each of the last two years (everyone except Ole Miss, Miss. State, Missouri, and Vandy). The ACC has two (FSU and Louisville). The average revenue per SEC school is a bit over $130 million. Clemson comes in at $108 million, so they would need to find about $25 million more in annual revenue to get in the conversation. Half of the ACC is earning less than $95 million per year, so those schools would need incredible growth to even let the SEC break even.

The SEC would add Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State tomorrow. Every other school needs an attachment at varying levels to those three to be in the discussion at all from a business perspective. As a tag-along, Kansas would be the first choice. Of course, all of this excludes existing BIG schools as well as Notre Dame from consideration.
03-18-2020 02:33 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 01:57 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Wake Forest would be of interest if the University of Texas insisted upon bringing them as a tag-along.

Line of the day:)

The one advantage of Florida State when it comes to the SEC is it would remove the largest Florida school from the ACC and hurt them and instead of having Florida's #1 school you have their #1 and #2 schools. I don't know how most of you feel about GOR's. I feel they will be respected for the duration of the ACC contract and the status of Florida State's and/or Miami's football by then could be very different than today. But from a population standpoint FSU is a clear winner. For all we know by 2036 Central Florida could be the 2nd best football team in Florida.

North Carolina is a winner because it expands the SEC footprint (Virginia and/or Virginia Tech would as well and the closer you get to DC the better for the SEC). Clemson is about as bad population wise as you can get when it comes to the ACC and the SEC has South Carolina taken care of but since coaches are coaching longer these days I'd say the odds are pretty decent Dabo Swinney will still be coaching Clemson in 2036 (he would be 67) and if he does retire it will likely be close to then and Clemson should still be in good shape. If Dabo were to leave Clemson in the next year or two, I'd have doubts to Clemson being good in 2036. I have more faith in Clemson football in 2036 than I do with North Carolina or Duke men's basketball in 2036. We've seen what happened at Carolina after Dean Smith retired. They went through Matt Doherty before they brought in (back) Roy Williams. Kentucky's in great shape with John Calipari but remember Billy Gillespie?
03-18-2020 02:54 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 12:31 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If you asked the SEC which teams they'd want in a vacuum from the ACC right now they'd give a heavily media market influenced answer along the lines of NC State, Virginia Tech, and Florida State. This is impossible because politically NCST-UNC-Duke function as a single unit. Which brings is to the point OP makes. But if you force the SEC to answer that question again but you have to go all or none on the Triangle ... I think they go none. New answer: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson. If you asked the SEC which teams they'd want for the long haul of profitability and not just today's fading financial fashion of conference TV channels, they'd probably give you a different answer yet again: Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech.

Obviously I'm biased, but I think it will be easier for the SEC to go league scale than it will be to cherry pick what few remaining assets are out that which guarantee a much higher TV payout (TX, OU, maybe that's it?). The nature of the beast at the P5 level is that unless you're making a call up from the G5 making a raid tends to come with political baggage which tends to force you to take smaller schools along with the big prize ones. It's as hard to see TX and OU peeling off by themselves as it is to see NC State peeling off by itself. Taking it league scale is largely a consolidation of Disney assets at this point: Big 12 + SEC + ACC. If there is ever going to be trimming of lighter class divisions within the P5 this is when it would happen.... otherwise the Wake Forests and Vanderbilts and Baylors will have the ultimate in grandfather deals in sports. I think even trimming those will be tricky because as we've already seen once with Baylor and Virginia Tech state legislatures or governors can get a bit upset over being left out and force you to keep them in. Having a total monopoly on the second most popular sport in America where most of its viewership is located will be very lucrative. You will bring new high demand inventory into the system by avoiding having non-overlapping assets (conferences) that exist within the same parent media company (Disney): TX-TAMU, KU-MIZZOU, Clemson-UGA, TX-Arkansas, GT-SC, GT-Auburn, VT-TN, GT-TN, TN-NC, NC-SC, the list goes on and on and on. Many of these games are ones that will sell out even when teams are having destitute seasons. They'll sell out in non-revenue sports even. You're bringing A LOT more gate revenue and all the associated income streams that go with it to the balance sheet. If it turns out that all this extra money isn't more, you mitigate the lower average income per team by compensating each team based upon what they actually brought to the table in TV viewership. This has some built in welfare in that the bigs play the smalls and that inflates their averages, and can be run through an arbitrary but simple formula to increase or decrease the spread from median to meet whatever is politically acceptable to membership.

I would make sense for the SEC to take the trio of Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson and in turn send Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt to the ACC.
The southern borders of Tennessee and North Carolina seem to be the dividing line of really good football development. Basketball is really the best option now for Tennessee and it always has been for Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
04-cheers
03-18-2020 02:59 PM
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RE: Research Triangle to the SEC
(03-18-2020 02:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would make sense for the SEC to take the trio of Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson and in turn send Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt to the ACC.
The southern borders of Tennessee and North Carolina seem to be the dividing line of really good football development. Basketball is really the best option now for Tennessee and it always has been for Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
04-cheers

My ideal trade has always been Kentucky and Florida to the ACC and Clemson and Georgia Tech to the SEC to put all of the state rivals in the same conferences. Florida would be in the better basketball conference, the better academic conference, and Florida isn't as "southern" as other SEC states/universities.
03-18-2020 03:07 PM
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