Quote:Today, President Trump encouraged the country to come to a screeching halt for a couple of weeks to combat the spread of Wuhan virus. I have a lot of doubts that this will work–our neighbors to the north are still accepting flights from China–or can work. Wuhan virus is a part of our ecosystem. It, like influenza, will be something we just have to deal with until the end of time. The gamble is that this initial burst of the pandemic burns itself out, aided by increasing temperatures and humidity, before the economy craters. If we gamble wrong and Wuhan virus surges back after the informal lockdown periods cease, then all we’ve done in the long term is nothing. The flip side of the coin is that people who survive Wuhan…and here I’m talking about virtually everyone who gets it, are left with some degree of immunity but people who got through it by self-quarantine will be just as vulnerable 4 or 5 weeks or 4 or 5 months from now as they are today.

The other strategy available is to say f*** it, we can’t stamp this out, it’s going to be with us perpetually, let’s let it run its course, try to isolate the highest risk citizens, and rely upon what is known as herd immunity for protection. Herd immunity is defined by the CDC as “a situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely.” That is what childhood vaccinations try to accomplish. If you can vaccinate 80% of the population, then the ability of a disease to spread approaches zero. That’s because most of the population can’t carry the disease and that protects the part of the population that cannot or will not vaccinate.

This latter strategy has been selected by the Netherlands.

In a rather historical speech, the first national address by a prime minister since the 1970s, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte addressed the country on live TV from The Hague.

The prime minister started his speech by giving his condolences to the families of the people who have died of Covid-19 and acknowledging the concerns of the Dutch people. “Tonight, my message is a difficult one. The coronavirus is here to stay. There is no quick escape out of this situation. A large part of the population will get infected by the virus.”

Three possible scenarios

In his speech, Rutte mentioned that there were three possible scenarios:

Trying to get maximum control over the virus, a.k.a flattening the curve. This way, we will build herd immunity to protect the elderly and immunocompromised, and our health care system will not collapse.
Let the virus spin out of control, something which we will have to avoid at all costs.
A nationwide lockdown. This is an option many countries are choosing, but is not preferable according to the experts, as a lockdown would probably last for months if not a year.

The Dutch government has chosen to go with the first scenario, to limit the spread of the virus as much as possible. However, the prime minister also stated that there is always a possibility that extra measures will be taken if the experts deem it necessary.

Last week, it seemed like the British government was also about to choose herd immunity but after a high profile article published to that imagined a death toll as high as 250,000, the government changed course.

No one knows how this will play out. Will the Dutch be considered prescient or buffoons? Will the aggregate death toll in the country go up? Or will deaths from Wuhan virus consist of elderly, sick, and immune-compromised people who would have died of influenza or pneumonia or some other infection? What I do think we know is this: The self-quarantine/lockdown regime we’re trying is a very expensive band-aid. The disease is here to stay and the real challenge is not how we manage this outbreak but how we manage to live with it. With herd immunity, or with a widely available vaccine, it is manageable. What we don’t know, and won’t know for many months, is if a vaccine for Wuhan virus is even practicable. Will it be like measles or whooping cough? Or will it be moving target like influenza? Or will it be like AIDS and the common cold and be totally resistant to efforts to develop a vaccine? If it is the first situation, then we may have the luxury of snickering at the Dutch and their fatalism. If it is the latter scenario, we have spent months in panic and billions of dollars in lost productivity and next winter we’ll have to do what the Dutch did.

Link

The Dutch are into euthanasia and assisted suicide, have been since 2001. This is a rational attitude, but not one that is likely to take hold here.

Flattening the curve is what everyone is trying to do.

the Netherlands chose my option...go figure...

seems pretty simple and is easily the least disruptive...

wtfe...

The idea of developing group immunity to coronavirus, also known as Covid-19, is controversial. It has been supported by Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell and Britain’s chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance. But the World Health Organisation (WHO) has questioned its basis in evidence.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/eu...-1.4204578

In my opinion, just like with everything else...if you are going to get it, you will. Hiding in your basement is not the answer, you cant stay there forever. I refuse to live my life in fear, if its your time to die, you are going to and I'm borderline in the kind of danger group. Age, 60, high blood pressure and a diabetic, but close to safe level without taking meds. With pills my levels drop to save zone. On the plus side, I'm with in 15 pounds of my ideal weight and size that I reached at the age of 28. I dont smoke, drink a beer every once in a while, and I'm in decent shape, can halfway hold my own to a point with 20 on 30 year old at the gym my son does his MMA training (for fun).

If I get it just like with everything else I will deal with it. My wife is in the danger group because of heath issues. Neither one of us think the world should stop to protect us from this. We all die and we dont stop the world to figure out a way to stop the deaths from car wrecks

Quote:Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled.

You can say that for a 100 other things. Let this run it's course, deal with the deaths as we do accidents, drinking, smoking, and high blood pressure, heart disease, and the common cold. There's zero reason to tank the worlds economy and the future of our sons and daughters over something that is mainly killing those who know they dont have long to live....

without this virus

Now with that I'm going to be honest the future of my sons and grandson will be greatly enhanced by this just as it was in the fall of the housing market. At some point I'm going to sink 50% of the cash I can get my hands on. Just like the houses we bought in 2008-2009 has more than doubled. I expect to make just as much, if not more money off of the fear of idiots.

This is part of life, deal with it and move on......we dont stop the world because 3/4 of a million old people die of heart disease each year. It's selfish on any persons part to think we should, now.

Guns, that's what I like about you...unafraid to explain common sense and willing to pounce on opportunity when the ding-dongs go batshite crazy...

#smart

(03-17-2020 01:20 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  the Netherlands chose my option...go figure...

seems pretty simple and is easily the least disruptive...

wtfe...

Right now I agree. I'm glad one country will be doing this so we will be able to evaluate afterwards and see. Somehow, though, if the Dutch are right, I don;t think it will make CNN..funny because they like so much else of what happens in the Netherlands...

(03-17-2020 02:12 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 01:20 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  the Netherlands chose my option...go figure...

seems pretty simple and is easily the least disruptive...

wtfe...

Right now I agree. I'm glad one country will be doing this so we will be able to evaluate afterwards and see. Somehow, though, if the Dutch are right, I don;t think it will make CNN..funny because they like so much else of what happens in the Netherlands...

DJT played politics with this one...he was screwed either way...I simply believe the Dutch chose wisely as best method...

I'll keep pounding amzn and aapl as 'must own' in that order...

(03-17-2020 02:27 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 02:12 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 01:20 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  the Netherlands chose my option...go figure...

seems pretty simple and is easily the least disruptive...

wtfe...

Right now I agree. I'm glad one country will be doing this so we will be able to evaluate afterwards and see. Somehow, though, if the Dutch are right, I don;t think it will make CNN..funny because they like so much else of what happens in the Netherlands...

DJT played politics with this one...he was screwed either way...I simply believe the Dutch chose wisely as best method...

I'll keep pounding amzn and aapl as 'must own' in that order...

Well, there is an election in November......would be interesting to see what he would have chosen if he were in year two of his second term.

Being the cynic I am, I can't help but think that what the vast majority of politicians are doing is playing CYA and don't really care what happens so long as they can proclaim "See, we did everything we could" to stop the spread.......

I'm going to be very interested to see if their strategy works.

(03-17-2020 03:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'm going to be very interested to see if their strategy works.

I'm open to a sig bet if "no" from any takers....

parameter is dutch mortality rate is < or = to all others...

(03-17-2020 02:57 PM)Crebman Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 02:27 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 02:12 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 01:20 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  the Netherlands chose my option...go figure...

seems pretty simple and is easily the least disruptive...

wtfe...

Right now I agree. I'm glad one country will be doing this so we will be able to evaluate afterwards and see. Somehow, though, if the Dutch are right, I don;t think it will make CNN..funny because they like so much else of what happens in the Netherlands...

DJT played politics with this one...he was screwed either way...I simply believe the Dutch chose wisely as best method...

I'll keep pounding amzn and aapl as 'must own' in that order...

Well, there is an election in November......would be interesting to see what he would have chosen if he were in year two of his second term.

Being the cynic I am, I can't help but think that what the vast majority of politicians are doing is playing CYA and don't really care what happens so long as they can proclaim "See, we did everything we could" to stop the spread.......

that's XACLY! what the entire lot of 'em are doing...

(03-17-2020 03:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 03:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'm going to be very interested to see if their strategy works.

I'm open to a sig bet if "no" from any takers....

parameter is dutch mortality rate is < or = to all others...

I see little reason to suspect the mortality rate will be any different. The question is what is that rate? The amount of people we'd have to allow to get infected to get Herd Immunity in the US is like 275-280 million people. If that mortality rate is even 1% you are talking about nearly 3 million people dying.

(03-17-2020 03:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 03:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 03:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'm going to be very interested to see if their strategy works.

I'm open to a sig bet if "no" from any takers....

parameter is dutch mortality rate is < or = to all others...

I see little reason to suspect the mortality rate will be any different. The question is what is that rate? The amount of people we'd have to allow to get infected to get Herd Immunity in the US is like 275-280 million people. If that mortality rate is even 1% you are talking about nearly 3 million people dying.

For an accurate mortality rate you need a lot more testing done. China knew about this in early November and covered it up. Surely some Chinese came to the US and spread long before the travel ban. Some guys who post here have been ill for a couple of weeks, they might have had it and never got tested. They probably just stayed at home until they felt better.

(03-17-2020 04:05 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 03:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 03:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 03:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'm going to be very interested to see if their strategy works.

I'm open to a sig bet if "no" from any takers....

parameter is dutch mortality rate is < or = to all others...

I see little reason to suspect the mortality rate will be any different. The question is what is that rate? The amount of people we'd have to allow to get infected to get Herd Immunity in the US is like 275-280 million people. If that mortality rate is even 1% you are talking about nearly 3 million people dying.

For an accurate mortality rate you need a lot more testing done.[ China knew about this in early November and covered it up. Surely some Chinese came to the US and spread long before the travel ban. Some guys who post here have been ill for a couple of weeks, they might have had it and never got tested. They probably just stayed at home until they felt better.

XACLY!

#watchItGoToIrrelevant

From this snippet, I don't see that they are doing anything different except not closing borders. They are still trying to flatten the curve.

We’ll have to wait a couple more weeks for the SK numbers in order to do some real comparative analysis. The Chinese numbers are useless. And while the Netherlands approach is essentially fast tracking the heed immunity plan, they probably can identity their at Risk population a lot easier and the citizens know that going to the hospital isn’t going to help.

(03-17-2020 06:04 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  We’ll have to wait a couple more weeks for the SK numbers in order to do some real comparative analysis. The Chinese numbers are useless. And while the Netherlands approach is essentially fast tracking the heed immunity plan, they probably can identity their at Risk population a lot easier and the citizens know that going to the hospital isn’t going to help.

explain why the Netherlands' approach wouldn't work across the board....it's no different than any other that has preceded such.....what the fk.....now all the sudden it's a pandemic b/c the boomers are in the utmost danger...............fk that bs.....

if you're old or decrepit, don't leave the fk'n house or have any invites....

seems pretty simple to me..."hey old guys, isolate yourselves if'n ya wanna breathe another day next to death...." if one thinks that's "life", then go for it.....

how about this....it's no different than any other influenza season as they're on the fringe of kickin' the bucket.....somebody tell me why that's difficult to understand in scope...

and yeah, muh chinks.....that's beyond tard to put any faith in their numbers....

this is a self created pandemonium with a nudge by the chinks....

trust me.....the backlash is going to get uglier than you or any other wuss-ball can imagine veddyyyyyyyy soon.....

it's already happening.....

(03-17-2020 08:10 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 06:04 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  We’ll have to wait a couple more weeks for the SK numbers in order to do some real comparative analysis. The Chinese numbers are useless. And while the Netherlands approach is essentially fast tracking the heed immunity plan, they probably can identity their at Risk population a lot easier and the citizens know that going to the hospital isn’t going to help.

explain why the Netherlands' approach wouldn't work across the board....it's no different than any other that has preceded such.....what the fk.....now all the sudden it's a pandemic b/c the boomers are in the utmost danger...............fk that bs.....

if you're old or decrepit, don't leave the fk'n house or have any invites....

seems pretty simple to me..."hey old guys, isolate yourselves if'n ya wanna breathe another day next to death...." if one thinks that's "life", then go for it.....

how about this....it's no different than any other influenza season as they're on the fringe of kickin' the bucket.....somebody tell me why that's difficult to understand in scope...

and yeah, muh chinks.....that's beyond tard to put any faith in their numbers....

this is a self created pandemonium with a nudge by the chinks....

trust me.....the backlash is going to get uglier than you or any other wuss-ball can imagine veddyyyyyyyy soon.....

it's already happening.....

it really is that simple...99.5% of everyone else is going to get a cold, some a little worse than others

(03-17-2020 08:10 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 06:04 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  We’ll have to wait a couple more weeks for the SK numbers in order to do some real comparative analysis. The Chinese numbers are useless. And while the Netherlands approach is essentially fast tracking the heed immunity plan, they probably can identity their at Risk population a lot easier and the citizens know that going to the hospital isn’t going to help.

explain why the Netherlands' approach wouldn't work across the board....it's no different than any other that has preceded such.....what the fk.....now all the sudden it's a pandemic b/c the boomers are in the utmost danger...............fk that bs.....

if you're old or decrepit, don't leave the fk'n house or have any invites....

seems pretty simple to me..."hey old guys, isolate yourselves if'n ya wanna breathe another day next to death...." if one thinks that's "life", then go for it.....

how about this....it's no different than any other influenza season as they're on the fringe of kickin' the bucket.....somebody tell me why that's difficult to understand in scope...

and yeah, muh chinks.....that's beyond tard to put any faith in their numbers....

this is a self created pandemonium with a nudge by the chinks....

trust me.....the backlash is going to get uglier than you or any other wuss-ball can imagine veddyyyyyyyy soon.....

it's already happening.....

I never said it couldn't work. But their populace is more likely to adhere to the 'don't come to the hospital for this unless you have respiratory issues' as opposed to much of the U.S. which will go to the ER for the sniffles even though we are trending into allergy season.