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2024 Conference Realignment
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #1
2024 Conference Realignment
Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)
03-15-2020 04:10 PM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)

Nice ideas but I'm not so sure.
Colorado is very happy in PAC 12 and only needs to create annual games with Oklahoma and Nebraska to be fully content.

Just impossible to fathom Cal schools allowing SDSU and Fresno into the conference.

I could agree with Boise Community College and BYU. Air Force may be a stretch though.

I can't see UNM adding NM State and Idaho is just a mess.
03-15-2020 05:49 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #3
RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

I see zero motivation for the PAC or Big 12 to expand. I mean sure, if Texas AM and Notre Dame suddenly decide they want to join (rejoin) the Big 12 then they'd roll out the red carpet. But there's no chance they are expanding with G5 schools, that would seriously dilute per-school revenue.

Ditto for the PAC.

The only way either adds G5 schools is if a catastrophe happens and they are savagely raided by another P5, e.g., imagine if the B1G steals Texas and Kansas and the SEC takes Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Then the leftover Big 12, shrunk down to six, would have to add some G5 schools to get back up to 10, even though they'd no longer be an AQ conference.
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2020 06:53 PM by quo vadis.)
03-15-2020 06:51 PM
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kevinwmsn Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
Conference USA has 14 teams, not 12.
03-16-2020 07:46 AM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-15-2020 05:49 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)

Nice ideas but I'm not so sure.
Colorado is very happy in PAC 12 and only needs to create annual games with Oklahoma and Nebraska to be fully content.

Just impossible to fathom Cal schools allowing SDSU and Fresno into the conference.

I could agree with Boise Community College and BYU. Air Force may be a stretch though.

I can't see UNM adding NM State and Idaho is just a mess.

Oklahoma does not have enough non conference games to play Colorado every year. Maybe Nebraska... I think the the PAC-12 is going to collapse over time. Even the NFL conferences each have a western division as it is the best way to keep those teams in the east coast eyes. I can see the Big 12 and Big Ten carving up the PAC-12.
03-16-2020 07:52 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
The world is ending, 05-sosad sports are a thing of the past. 01-swc There will be no conf left other than SEC and Big in 2024. 05-stirthepot and even they are iffy. 05-deadhorse
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 08:01 AM by goodknightfl.)
03-16-2020 07:58 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 07:46 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  Conference USA has 14 teams, not 12.

In the OP's scenario, CUSA loses FAU and UTEP.
03-16-2020 08:09 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 08:09 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-16-2020 07:46 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  Conference USA has 14 teams, not 12.

In the OP's scenario, CUSA loses FAU and UTEP.

But if they lose FAU and UTEP they will be down to 12.
03-16-2020 08:23 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 07:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The world is ending, 05-sosad sports are a thing of the past. 01-swc There will be no conf left other than SEC and Big in 2024. 05-stirthepot and even they are iffy. 05-deadhorse

I doubt it
03-16-2020 08:25 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 07:52 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  
(03-15-2020 05:49 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)

Nice ideas but I'm not so sure.
Colorado is very happy in PAC 12 and only needs to create annual games with Oklahoma and Nebraska to be fully content.

Just impossible to fathom Cal schools allowing SDSU and Fresno into the conference.

I could agree with Boise Community College and BYU. Air Force may be a stretch though.

I can't see UNM adding NM State and Idaho is just a mess.

Oklahoma does not have enough non conference games to play Colorado every year. Maybe Nebraska... I think the the PAC-12 is going to collapse over time. Even the NFL conferences each have a western division as it is the best way to keep those teams in the east coast eyes. I can see the Big 12 and Big Ten carving up the PAC-12.

Colorado has been very unsuccessful in the PAC 12. They regret leaving the Big XII and the Big XII under, the circumstances, would welcome them back. The Big XII has for a long time had it’s eyes on Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF for obvious reasons. If they are ever going to expand, this would be their opportunity. Air Force moving to the American makes sense because they would be in the same conference with Navy and it would free up their non conference scheduling, plus they would have more challenging opponents and more exposure.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 09:11 AM by SMUstang.)
03-16-2020 08:37 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-15-2020 06:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

I see zero motivation for the PAC or Big 12 to expand. I mean sure, if Texas AM and Notre Dame suddenly decide they want to join (rejoin) the Big 12 then they'd roll out the red carpet. But there's no chance they are expanding with G5 schools, that would seriously dilute per-school revenue.

Ditto for the PAC.

The only way either adds G5 schools is if a catastrophe happens and they are savagely raided by another P5, e.g., imagine if the B1G steals Texas and Kansas and the SEC takes Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Then the leftover Big 12, shrunk down to six, would have to add some G5 schools to get back up to 10, even though they'd no longer be an AQ conference.

If the PAC 12 does lose Colorado, that would leave them unbalanced. And they are hurting financially. They would do well to pick up the San Diego and Las Vegas markets but they would still be unbalanced, thus Fresno makes sense.
03-16-2020 08:41 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #12
RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
The American chose it’s name for a reason. They are moving their headquarters to Las Colinas for a reason. Join the westward movement and give them access to the Mountain Time Zone.
03-16-2020 08:49 AM
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 08:37 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Colorado has been very unsuccessful in the PAC 12. They regret leaving the Big XII and the Big XII under, the circumstances, would welcome them back. The Big XII has for a long time had it’s eyes on Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF for obvious reasons. If they are ever going to expand, this would be their opportunity.

You have any statements that Colorado regrets leaving the Pac-12? Essentially if they're choosing between the Pac-12 or Big 12 they're choosing between California or Texas. I don't think their failures sports wise can necessarily be tied to them moving to the Pac-12 nor would they be any more successful in the Big 12.
03-16-2020 08:50 AM
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 08:41 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(03-15-2020 06:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

I see zero motivation for the PAC or Big 12 to expand. I mean sure, if Texas AM and Notre Dame suddenly decide they want to join (rejoin) the Big 12 then they'd roll out the red carpet. But there's no chance they are expanding with G5 schools, that would seriously dilute per-school revenue.

Ditto for the PAC.

The only way either adds G5 schools is if a catastrophe happens and they are savagely raided by another P5, e.g., imagine if the B1G steals Texas and Kansas and the SEC takes Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Then the leftover Big 12, shrunk down to six, would have to add some G5 schools to get back up to 10, even though they'd no longer be an AQ conference.

If the PAC 12 does lose Colorado, that would leave them unbalanced. And they are hurting financially. They would do well to pick up the San Diego and Las Vegas markets but they would still be unbalanced, thus Fresno makes sense.

Assuming the following occurs, regardless of likelihood: loses Colorado > picks up San Diego St and UNLV. Would they take a 6th California school in Fresno St or would they consider Colorado St, Hawaii, or New Mexico as #14? Colorado St fills the "Colorado void" and has decent academics. Hawaii is a decent school that would be a fun addition and favorite of student-athletes. New Mexico is a "Utah-lite" with a lot of unmet potential.
03-16-2020 08:51 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-16-2020 08:23 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(03-16-2020 08:09 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(03-16-2020 07:46 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  Conference USA has 14 teams, not 12.

In the OP's scenario, CUSA loses FAU and UTEP.

But if they lose FAU and UTEP they will be down to 12.

... which is why I said the thing I said.
03-16-2020 09:16 AM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
What happens at the P5 level is way beyond me. It would be hard to imagine the B1G, SEC, or ACC pulling anyone from each other given that their Grant's of rights last well into the 2030's. Plus they are all three already at 14 each (15 in non-football for the ACC). I don't see the Pac-12 or Big 12 being able to take teams from each other. Color me skeptical about any lineup changes among the P5, but again, I'm no wizard and can't see into the future.

What I do know is that three conferences in the G5 have plenty of reasons which could changes their membership lineups in the next four years. While the MAC appears ready for the long haul with its 12-school, geographically tight footprint, and the Mountain West's geographic isolation in the western U.S. with a lack of standout expansion candidates to go to 14 makes them unlikely to expand, the other three leagues seem more more primed for eventual change.

1) The American. It has a two year waiver to hold a conference championship despite falling outside the requirements for having one. It is without divisions (like 8 FBS leagues) and without a round robin schedule for the whole league (like the Big 12). That waiver is going to expire, and someone is going to have to be added as football team #12. All signs are that that school will either be from C-USA or the Sun Belt.

2) C-USA and 3) the Sun Belt. As stated above, one of these leagues is likely to lose a member, and the league that loses a member will have to pull a new one from the other league, from the independents, or from FCS. Moreover, both leagues are filled with discontent, and both have AD's (at ODU, App State, Charlotte, and MTSU) who have spoken out in favor of a more sensible geographic alignment. C-USA has a TV contract where games are all but limited to Saturdays but are buried on hard to find platforms. The Sun Belt has a TV contract where games are on relatively easy to find platforms (ESPN, ESPN2,ESPNU, or ESPN+), but require almost every team to have one home and one road conference game on Thursdays, Fridays, or the ever uncomfortable Tuesdays or Wednesdays. They're #9 and #10 in TV revenue among FBS conferences. Do they need any more incentive to try something else so that Charlotte and App State aren't sitting in CLT Int'l Airport waiting on flights to Texas to play there instead of each other (and where UTA/Texas State don't play the nearby C-USA schools)?
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 12:13 PM by Michael in Raleigh.)
03-16-2020 12:12 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #17
RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)

The only movement I see in the near future is the AAC adding a replacement for UConn, before their waver runs out. I think the AAC will probably make a pick after the 2020 season. But, being an SMU fan you might have more information on the AAC's plans.
03-16-2020 12:19 PM
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2024 Conference Realignment
Boulder is a perfect cultural fit for the Pac-12. They'll only like the Pac-12 more with time.

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03-16-2020 12:35 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
Colorado fits better in the Big 8 than the PAC 8 in my opinion.
03-16-2020 12:48 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: 2024 Conference Realignment
All the move sin the start of the thread have a huge negative impact in the per school take for the conferences involved. That makes them non starters.

I see no shake up what so ever *IF* the B12 goes back to uneven revenue sharing, so that OU and Texas can keep pace with the B1G and SEC in revenue. But the idea of $36m for KU, K State, ISU, OK State, Baylor, TCU, TTU, and WVU while Texas and OU get $55m may be hard to swallow. In addition OU and Texas would have their own 3rd tier bringing in at least $5m more for OU and $15m more for Texas than the little-8 would get.

If the B12 is committed to even share, then I see no way they can keep OU in the fold. A move by OU to the SEC or B1G would be a jump of $20-25m per year at a minimum, probably closer to $30m annually. $300m over a decade is just too much money to pass up. This is the most likely starting point of any realignment.

If just OU moves, many options open up. Texas will of course be the #1 target of the B1G and SEC. But KU will also be there as a fall back 16th. It's hard to see any value in the rest of the B12 to other P5 conferences. Even KU is and "underwater" add except for being a flagship, AAU member and Basketball blue blood. That's a mitigating prestige value no other B12 has besides Texas and OU. (Sure there are some good athletic programs, but it's the school you add, otherwise Boise State would have been in a power conference years ago.)

Any moves after that come in the form of back fill, starting with the B12 looking at top G5 programs. (They identified 11 in their Rose Ceremony, although we can probably eliminate UConn as settle in the Big East ... and both Tulane and Rice were only on the list for academics, neither is a serious contender.) Economics will rule any decision, and that will limit the league size to as few schools as possible to maximize per school revenue. Who knows they may go down to just 9 schools if they are allowed to hold a CCG, or 10 with say BYU or UCF football only adds. Playing 8 games may be desirable, so that schools can schedule a P5 OOC game to help the leagues RPI. The B12 will be in old Big East territory, so has to be very careful about any adds.

Adds further down the list, so the AAC if they lose a school to the B12, might be either none (stand pat) or just the best available replacement school from a value standpoint to ESPN. The Mountain West would probably add nobody if they lost a school. in fact that would probably increase the interest of the MWC in poaching Gonzaga and maybe BYU for basketball, since the basketball side is more likely to add revenue than the football side.

Overall, I think conferences do not want to change lineups. They would only do so if forced.
03-16-2020 12:51 PM
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