(03-20-2020 11:09 PM)NoDak Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 09:40 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I think it is unlikely USC goes to the Big12 without the other 3 Pac12 CA schools. But I could well see a shuffling of the PAC12: and Big12 to create two California and Texas based conferences.

Pac12/Big12 Merger
West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Wash, Ore, AZ, Utah
East: Texas, Kan, Ok, Colorado, T Tech, TCU, Nebraska, Houston

The left overs fill in:
West: Washington St, Oregon State, Arizona State, Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, BYU

East: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Cincinnati, SMU,

See Rice getting in before Houston, as the PAC AAU schools would much prefer them.

I'd go with Arizona State over both of them. They'd want the Phoenix market. Utah would move to the East. Rice is great academically but too weak athletically. We don't know if the Pac-12 or Big 12 schools would call the shots but at least ASU has ties to the Pac-12 schools in the group, Rice has ties to none of them (unless anyone has a time machine and can go back to the SWC).

I would guess Cincinnati and West Virginia would stay with whatever conference Memphis, UCF, USF, Tulane, and Tulsa are in. They gain nothing being in the 2nd tier conference you suggested. Iowa State might move to that conference. Maybe the MWC, AAC, and the remains of the Big 12, Pac 12 become two or three conferences, one East of the Mississippi and one West of the Mississippi.

(03-21-2020 09:25 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  My take:

SUPER CONFERENCE
Arizona
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington

WESTERN LEFTOVERS
Air Force
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Colorado St.
Houston
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
SMU
TCU
UNLV
Washington St.

Though I am admittedly biased I think Washington State, Oregon State will demand 1 trip to California a year. They did so in the PAC-12 split to divisions which means Fresno State would likely go in ahead of UNLV. It’s arguable but I can’t see them not wanting a visit annually to their prime recruiting area.

(03-20-2020 11:09 PM)NoDak Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 09:40 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I think it is unlikely USC goes to the Big12 without the other 3 Pac12 CA schools. But I could well see a shuffling of the PAC12: and Big12 to create two California and Texas based conferences.

Pac12/Big12 Merger
West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Wash, Ore, AZ, Utah
East: Texas, Kan, Ok, Colorado, T Tech, TCU, Nebraska, Houston

The left overs fill in:
West: Washington St, Oregon State, Arizona State, Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, BYU

East: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Cincinnati, SMU,

See Rice getting in before Houston, as the PAC AAU schools would much prefer them.

Perhaps. Who the last eastern school would be is open for lots of debate:

Possibilities are:
Missouri -
Why: struggling in SEC East, renews rivalry with Kansas and Oklahoma, new conference filled with like AAU Schools
Why not: SEC Money (depends on TV projections for new conference)

Arizona State-
Why: Pheonix is a large market, large alumni base
Why not: Not AAU, 117 National University Ranking

Baylor-
Why: 4th Texas School, 79 in National Universities, strong athletics
Why not: Scandal Stench, Alumni Base

Houston-
Why: 4th Texas school, Houston Market, Ascending sports
Why not: not P5, 185 National University Ranking

Rice-
Why: AAU School, 4th Texas school, Houston Market,
Why Not: not P5, bad athletics, Small Alumni base

If they would come I think Missouri gets the nod. Baylor gets in if Texas/Oklahoma force it. Houston might be the compromise choice but agree I’m just spitballing here.

I think 10 members is ideal. How about forming two ten team conferences from the Pac 12/ Big 12 in which each member has a permanent rival in the other conference and on one Saturday, they all play, as sort of a conference challenge. Would each of these conferences be Power 5? Would they be able to come up with comparable media packages?

Conference A
1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Cal
4. UCLA
5. Arizona
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. UT
9. OU
10. Kansas

Conference B with corresponding rival from Conference A
1. Wash. State
2. Oregon State
3. Stanford
4. USC
5. Arizona State
6. BYU
7. Iowa State
8. Texas Tech
9. Ok. State
10. Kan. State

(03-21-2020 10:50 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  My Take:

TIER 1
Arizona
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington

TIER 2
Air Force
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Colorado St.
Houston
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
SMU
TCU
UNLV
Washington St.

TIER 3
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose St.
Tulane
Tulsa
Utah St.
Wichita St.
Wyoming

Just curious why UNLV over Fresno?

Academic rankings:Fresno 281 National, UNLV 293-381.
Market Rankings: Las Vegas 39 (743k) Fresno 55 (551k). But those numbers can be deceiving as Bakersfield (200K) and Modesto (550K) are 90 min drives and pull Dog fans. 90 min from UNLV. Sagebrush
Average Attendance: Fresno 32,552, UNLV 19,864
Competition:Vegas (Raiders) , Fresno (AAA baseball)
Games picked in MWC TV Fresno 8, UNLV 4
MWC Titles Football from 2010: Fresno 3, UNLV 0
MWC Titles Basketball from 2010: Fresno 1, UNLV 0
MWC Titles Baseball from 2010: Fresno 1, UNLV 0

(03-21-2020 10:50 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  My Take:

TIER 1
Arizona - 47,691
Arizona St. - 51,504
California - 44,505
Colorado - 43,328
Kansas - 26,650
Oklahoma - 86,126
Oregon - 56,275
Stanford - 45,432
Texas - 94,502
Texas Tech - 56,924
UCLA - 63,635
USC - 69,044
Utah - 46,344
Washington - 65,781

TIER 2
Air Force - 28,125
Baylor - 44,774
Boise State - 32,916
BYU - 56,597
Colorado St. - 28,131
Houston - 32,733
Kansas St. - 51,827
Oklahoma St. 55,240
Oregon St. - 37,168
San Diego St. - 33,909
SMU - 21,122
TCU - 44,720
UNLV - 17,541
Washington St. - 30,789

TIER 3
Fresno St. - 30,308
Hawaii - 25,027
Nevada - 19,687
New Mexico - 20,704
San Jose St. - 14,852
Tulane - 21,112
Tulsa - 18,812
Utah St. - 19,958
Wichita St.
Wyoming - 19,683

Just for the heck of it I added 5 year football average attendance to each school in your tier.

Thoughts:
if BYU wasn’t such a pain they clearly belong in Tier 1.
Baylor based on Academics and Texas location gets in Tier 1 and I think Nebraska joins that conference
Fresno moves up to replace Baylor
Hawaii and AF go football only on both sides, Tulane/New Mexico, Gonzaga and Wichita State added

(03-21-2020 12:22 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 11:52 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 10:50 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  My Take:

TIER 1
Arizona
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington

TIER 2
Air Force
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Colorado St.
Houston
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
SMU
TCU
UNLV
Washington St.

TIER 3
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose St.
Tulane
Tulsa
Utah St.
Wichita St.
Wyoming

Just curious why UNLV over Fresno?

Academic rankings:Fresno 281 National, UNLV 293-381.
Market Rankings: Las Vegas 39 (743k) Fresno 55 (551k). But those numbers can be deceiving as Bakersfield (200K) and Modesto (550K) are 90 min drives and pull Dog fans. 90 min from UNLV. Sagebrush
Average Attendance: Fresno 32,552, UNLV 19,864
Competition:Vegas (Raiders) , Fresno (AAA baseball)
Games picked in MWC TV Fresno 8, UNLV 4
MWC Titles Football from 2010: Fresno 3, UNLV 0
MWC Titles Basketball from 2010: Fresno 1, UNLV 0
MWC Titles Baseball from 2010: Fresno 1, UNLV 0

See my revised post below (Had to add another Tier). You have valid points exchanging UNLV and Fresno St. This is just my take. Others have other opinions.

Yeah it’s all just opinion. I was mostly curious about your reasoning.

(03-21-2020 01:04 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 12:45 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 12:22 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 11:52 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 10:50 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  My Take:

TIER 1
Arizona
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington

TIER 2
Air Force
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Colorado St.
Houston
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
SMU
TCU
UNLV
Washington St.

TIER 3
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose St.
Tulane
Tulsa
Utah St.
Wichita St.
Wyoming

Just curious why UNLV over Fresno?

Academic rankings:Fresno 281 National, UNLV 293-381.
Market Rankings: Las Vegas 39 (743k) Fresno 55 (551k). But those numbers can be deceiving as Bakersfield (200K) and Modesto (550K) are 90 min drives and pull Dog fans. 90 min from UNLV. Sagebrush
Average Attendance: Fresno 32,552, UNLV 19,864
Competition:Vegas (Raiders) , Fresno (AAA baseball)
Games picked in MWC TV Fresno 8, UNLV 4
MWC Titles Football from 2010: Fresno 3, UNLV 0
MWC Titles Basketball from 2010: Fresno 1, UNLV 0
MWC Titles Baseball from 2010: Fresno 1, UNLV 0

See my revised post below (Had to add another Tier). You have valid points exchanging UNLV and Fresno St. This is just my take. Others have other opinions.

Yeah it’s all just opinion. I was mostly curious about your reasoning.

I was mostly concerned with including everybody west of the Mississippi River. Then forming 14 team conferences based mostly on Sagarin data. No consideration for rivalries or recruiting areas, etc.

Okay reasonable. Why 14 versus 16? 16 in my revision let’s you pick up New Mexico and Hawaii (Football only). Also, technically NorCal.... adding just SDSU for CA is like adding UTEP for Texas.

BTW. How do you do your Divisions?

(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)

Your "Ex" is your "Ex" for a reason(s)...

Let go of the past.

Oh, and BYU will be a member of the B12 (for at least FB) or stay "independent."

Assuming TV money is in peril during the next realignment could we see a few MWC type moves happen?

For example the ACC has 15 schools in it and could be too many mouths to feed. Form a new conference and drop BC, Syracuse, ND, Pitt, VT, NC State and Wake.

They would have to go back to being independents or maybe join West Virginia in the XII. Wake would have to drop down from the P level.

(03-22-2020 11:05 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Assuming TV money is in peril during the next realignment could we see a few MWC type moves happen?

For example the ACC has 15 schools in it and could be too many mouths to feed. Form a new conference and drop BC, Syracuse, ND, Pitt, VT, NC State and Wake.

They would have to go back to being independents or maybe join West Virginia in the XII. Wake would have to drop down from the P level.

I'm not certain but I wonder if the Grant of Rights/media deals protects the schools as much as it does the conferences. If a school is part of a conference and a specific media deal, it's pretty lopsided if a school can't leave for a better conference but the conference can give a member or members the boot.

The Pac-12 is the obvious choice for a conference that could do a MWC/WAC or Big East/Catholic 7 move to join up with Texas/Oklahoma as discussed in this thread although the number of schools "leaving" could very well be everyone except Oregon State and Washington State. I don't know who else the Pac-12 would "kick out".

(03-22-2020 11:19 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-22-2020 11:05 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Assuming TV money is in peril during the next realignment could we see a few MWC type moves happen?

For example the ACC has 15 schools in it and could be too many mouths to feed. Form a new conference and drop BC, Syracuse, ND, Pitt, VT, NC State and Wake.

They would have to go back to being independents or maybe join West Virginia in the XII. Wake would have to drop down from the P level.

I'm not certain but I wonder if the Grant of Rights/media deals protects the schools as much as it does the conferences. If a school is part of a conference and a specific media deal, it's pretty lopsided if a school can't leave for a better conference but the conference can give a member or members the boot.

The Pac-12 is the obvious choice for a conference that could do a MWC/WAC or Big East/Catholic 7 move to join up with Texas/Oklahoma as discussed in this thread although the number of schools "leaving" could very well be everyone except Oregon State and Washington State. I don't know who else the Pac-12 would "kick out".

I’m expecting the PAC 12 and Big XII to do some sort of merger, obviously keeping the top teams and cutting the rest loose, similar to what the Big XII did to the SWC. We’ll see.

(03-22-2020 12:32 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-22-2020 11:19 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-22-2020 11:05 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Assuming TV money is in peril during the next realignment could we see a few MWC type moves happen?

For example the ACC has 15 schools in it and could be too many mouths to feed. Form a new conference and drop BC, Syracuse, ND, Pitt, VT, NC State and Wake.

They would have to go back to being independents or maybe join West Virginia in the XII. Wake would have to drop down from the P level.

I'm not certain but I wonder if the Grant of Rights/media deals protects the schools as much as it does the conferences. If a school is part of a conference and a specific media deal, it's pretty lopsided if a school can't leave for a better conference but the conference can give a member or members the boot.

The Pac-12 is the obvious choice for a conference that could do a MWC/WAC or Big East/Catholic 7 move to join up with Texas/Oklahoma as discussed in this thread although the number of schools "leaving" could very well be everyone except Oregon State and Washington State. I don't know who else the Pac-12 would "kick out".

I’m expecting the PAC 12 and Big XII to do some sort of merger, obviously keeping the top teams and cutting the rest loose. We’ll see.

The problem starts becoming travel trying to merge those 2 conferences.

A PAC-16 w/ UT/OU/TCU/TT that has ESPN/Fox for 1st tier/2nd tier but everyone having their own 3rd tier to make money on I can see making sense.

A division of 8 with USC/UCLA, the Arizona schools, Texas Tech to make up for no New Mexico presence, Texas/Oklahoma rivalry and TCU for the DFW market sounds workable.

Some of those left out can't cry foul still members in an autonomy conference.

(03-16-2020 12:51 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  All the move sin the start of the thread have a huge negative impact in the per school take for the conferences involved. That makes them non starters.

I see no shake up what so ever *IF* the B12 goes back to uneven revenue sharing, so that OU and Texas can keep pace with the B1G and SEC in revenue. But the idea of $36m for KU, K State, ISU, OK State, Baylor, TCU, TTU, and WVU while Texas and OU get $55m may be hard to swallow. In addition OU and Texas would have their own 3rd tier bringing in at least $5m more for OU and $15m more for Texas than the little-8 would get.

If the B12 is committed to even share, then I see no way they can keep OU in the fold. A move by OU to the SEC or B1G would be a jump of $20-25m per year at a minimum, probably closer to $30m annually. $300m over a decade is just too much money to pass up. This is the most likely starting point of any realignment.

If just OU moves, many options open up. Texas will of course be the #1 target of the B1G and SEC. But KU will also be there as a fall back 16th. It's hard to see any value in the rest of the B12 to other P5 conferences. Even KU is and "underwater" add except for being a flagship, AAU member and Basketball blue blood. That's a mitigating prestige value no other B12 has besides Texas and OU. (Sure there are some good athletic programs, but it's the school you add, otherwise Boise State would have been in a power conference years ago.)

Any moves after that come in the form of back fill, starting with the B12 looking at top G5 programs. (They identified 11 in their Rose Ceremony, although we can probably eliminate UConn as settle in the Big East ... and both Tulane and Rice were only on the list for academics, neither is a serious contender.) Economics will rule any decision, and that will limit the league size to as few schools as possible to maximize per school revenue. Who knows they may go down to just 9 schools if they are allowed to hold a CCG, or 10 with say BYU or UCF football only adds. Playing 8 games may be desirable, so that schools can schedule a P5 OOC game to help the leagues RPI. The B12 will be in old Big East territory, so has to be very careful about any adds.

Adds further down the list, so the AAC if they lose a school to the B12, might be either none (stand pat) or just the best available replacement school from a value standpoint to ESPN. The Mountain West would probably add nobody if they lost a school. in fact that would probably increase the interest of the MWC in poaching Gonzaga and maybe BYU for basketball, since the basketball side is more likely to add revenue than the football side.

Overall, I think conferences do not want to change lineups. They would only do so if forced.

Uneven revenue sharing is a tacit admission that most of the Big XII is already of G5 caliber. So why does the conference look down its nose and claim that no current G5 teams satisfy its membership criteria? Several G5s are better academically, have larger research portfolios and endowments, come from larger market areas, and consistently outperform the Big XII's lesser members on the field and on the court.

For example: the AAC teams in their backyard.

(03-20-2020 09:30 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'd guess the Big 8 really only wanted Texas and Texas A&M. The only reason it was a 12 at all was because of the meddling Texas politicians.

They wanted 12, for the divisional split. They preferred Texas Tech and Houston ... it was Baylor that got in because of Texas politicians meddling.

Should be noted that when conferences and universities use academics as a metric of value that something like the US News rankings is completely worthless. Academics at this level are defined by endowment figures, publishing rates and research and development funding.

After several iterations:

PAC-14
Arizona
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington

WESTERN
Boise St.
BYU
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Nevada
New Mexico
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
San Jose St.
UNLV
Utah St.
Washington St.

AAC WEST
Air Force
Baylor
Colorado St.
Houston
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
SMU
TCU
Tulsa
Wyoming

AAC EAST
Central Florida
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Iowa St.
Memphis
Navy
South Florida
Temple
Tulane
UAB

(03-24-2020 10:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  After several iterations:

PAC-14
Arizona
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oregon
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington

WESTERN
Boise St.
BYU
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Nevada
New Mexico
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
San Jose St.
UNLV
Utah St.
Washington St.

AAC WEST
Air Force
Baylor
Colorado St.
Houston
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
SMU
TCU
Tulsa
Wyoming

AAC EAST
Central Florida
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Iowa St.
Memphis
Navy
South Florida
Temple
Tulane
UAB

I like that PAC-14.

I would modify the WESTERN as a 12-team conference to look more like:

West: Hawaii, UNLV, San Diego St, Fresno St, Oregon St, Washington St
East: Nevada, Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Air Force, New Mexico

I would drop the AAC to 16 by moving Colorado St and Air Force to the WESTERN and shedding Wyoming and UAB to make the following:

West: Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Tulsa, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Navy
East: Houston, Tulane, Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, Central Florida, South Florida

I personally prefer the service academies be independent, but otherwise BePcr, that's pretty good.