(03-15-2020 04:10 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Here's what I think will happen around 2024

BIG XII: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - Colorado, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

PAC 12: 14 SCHOOLS
Additions - SDSU, UNLV, Fresno State

THE AMERICAN: 12 SCHOOLS
Additions - BYU, Boise State, Air Force, Florida Atlantic

MOUNTAIN WEST: 10 SCHOOLS
Additions - UTEP, New Mexico State, Idaho

CONFERENCE USA: 12 SCHOOLS
No Additions

STANDING PAT: BIG 10 (14), SEC (14), ACC (14), MAC (12), SUNBELT (10)

I have a question why go into Houston for the Big 12 when you could double up in Florida with USF? Surely the Big 12 had Houston already covered. I would see the Mountain West try to go back to 12. In your Scenario are they wanting to see how Dixie State does in the FCS? Could the Mountain West pick up any California FCS team from the Big West? Would San Diego be willing to add scholarships and move to the MWC?

I could see the Sun Belt also move back to 14. Maybe a Southland team for the west and a Big South team for the east.

(03-16-2020 12:51 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  All the move sin the start of the thread have a huge negative impact in the per school take for the conferences involved. That makes them non starters.

I see no shake up what so ever *IF* the B12 goes back to uneven revenue sharing, so that OU and Texas can keep pace with the B1G and SEC in revenue. But the idea of $36m for KU, K State, ISU, OK State, Baylor, TCU, TTU, and WVU while Texas and OU get $55m may be hard to swallow. In addition OU and Texas would have their own 3rd tier bringing in at least $5m more for OU and $15m more for Texas than the little-8 would get.

If the B12 is committed to even share, then I see no way they can keep OU in the fold. A move by OU to the SEC or B1G would be a jump of $20-25m per year at a minimum, probably closer to $30m annually. $300m over a decade is just too much money to pass up. This is the most likely starting point of any realignment.

If just OU moves, many options open up. Texas will of course be the #1 target of the B1G and SEC. But KU will also be there as a fall back 16th. It's hard to see any value in the rest of the B12 to other P5 conferences. Even KU is and "underwater" add except for being a flagship, AAU member and Basketball blue blood. That's a mitigating prestige value no other B12 has besides Texas and OU. (Sure there are some good athletic programs, but it's the school you add, otherwise Boise State would have been in a power conference years ago.)

Any moves after that come in the form of back fill, starting with the B12 looking at top G5 programs. (They identified 11 in their Rose Ceremony, although we can probably eliminate UConn as settle in the Big East ... and both Tulane and Rice were only on the list for academics, neither is a serious contender.) Economics will rule any decision, and that will limit the league size to as few schools as possible to maximize per school revenue. Who knows they may go down to just 9 schools if they are allowed to hold a CCG, or 10 with say BYU or UCF football only adds. Playing 8 games may be desirable, so that schools can schedule a P5 OOC game to help the leagues RPI. The B12 will be in old Big East territory, so has to be very careful about any adds.

Adds further down the list, so the AAC if they lose a school to the B12, might be either none (stand pat) or just the best available replacement school from a value standpoint to ESPN. The Mountain West would probably add nobody if they lost a school. in fact that would probably increase the interest of the MWC in poaching Gonzaga and maybe BYU for basketball, since the basketball side is more likely to add revenue than the football side.

Overall, I think conferences do not want to change lineups. They would only do so if forced.

You make some really good points. I hope you are right.

(03-16-2020 12:48 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Colorado fits better in the Big 8 than the PAC 8 in my opinion.

Too bad there's neither a Big 8 nor Pac-8 anymore.

(03-16-2020 05:52 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 12:48 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Colorado fits better in the Big 8 than the PAC 8 in my opinion.

Too bad there's neither a Big 8 nor Pac-8 anymore.

You think I don't know that? The point is..............

(03-16-2020 06:30 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 05:52 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 12:48 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Colorado fits better in the Big 8 than the PAC 8 in my opinion.

Too bad there's neither a Big 8 nor Pac-8 anymore.

You think I don't know that? The point is..............

Colorado prefers the Pac to the Big 12. That's why they left. They're not going back.

(03-16-2020 02:53 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 12:51 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  All the move sin the start of the thread have a huge negative impact in the per school take for the conferences involved. That makes them non starters.

I see no shake up what so ever *IF* the B12 goes back to uneven revenue sharing, so that OU and Texas can keep pace with the B1G and SEC in revenue. But the idea of $36m for KU, K State, ISU, OK State, Baylor, TCU, TTU, and WVU while Texas and OU get $55m may be hard to swallow. In addition OU and Texas would have their own 3rd tier bringing in at least $5m more for OU and $15m more for Texas than the little-8 would get.

If the B12 is committed to even share, then I see no way they can keep OU in the fold. A move by OU to the SEC or B1G would be a jump of $20-25m per year at a minimum, probably closer to $30m annually. $300m over a decade is just too much money to pass up. This is the most likely starting point of any realignment.

If just OU moves, many options open up. Texas will of course be the #1 target of the B1G and SEC. But KU will also be there as a fall back 16th. It's hard to see any value in the rest of the B12 to other P5 conferences. Even KU is and "underwater" add except for being a flagship, AAU member and Basketball blue blood. That's a mitigating prestige value no other B12 has besides Texas and OU. (Sure there are some good athletic programs, but it's the school you add, otherwise Boise State would have been in a power conference years ago.)

Any moves after that come in the form of back fill, starting with the B12 looking at top G5 programs. (They identified 11 in their Rose Ceremony, although we can probably eliminate UConn as settle in the Big East ... and both Tulane and Rice were only on the list for academics, neither is a serious contender.) Economics will rule any decision, and that will limit the league size to as few schools as possible to maximize per school revenue. Who knows they may go down to just 9 schools if they are allowed to hold a CCG, or 10 with say BYU or UCF football only adds. Playing 8 games may be desirable, so that schools can schedule a P5 OOC game to help the leagues RPI. The B12 will be in old Big East territory, so has to be very careful about any adds.

Adds further down the list, so the AAC if they lose a school to the B12, might be either none (stand pat) or just the best available replacement school from a value standpoint to ESPN. The Mountain West would probably add nobody if they lost a school. in fact that would probably increase the interest of the MWC in poaching Gonzaga and maybe BYU for basketball, since the basketball side is more likely to add revenue than the football side.

Overall, I think conferences do not want to change lineups. They would only do so if forced.

You make some really good points. I hope you are right.

Why would they take UCF football only though? Obviously football is our biggest value and most successful sport but they may as well add us for all sports, we don’t have the same scheduling issues that BYU Olympics would have. We also have a nice, relatively new arena and are starting to do well in basketball as well as a very strong baseball program.

(03-16-2020 06:36 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 06:30 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 05:52 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 12:48 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Colorado fits better in the Big 8 than the PAC 8 in my opinion.

Too bad there's neither a Big 8 nor Pac-8 anymore.

You think I don't know that? The point is..............

Colorado prefers the Pac to the Big 12. That's why they left. They're not going back.

Yeah, there's no buyer's remorse with them. The unhappy PAC teams are USC and the Arizonas. And while USC could pull off independence, the Arizonas don't strike me as programs who would move to the Big XII unless there were other mountain and CA schools coming over. And if the best thing the Big XII could get from California was SDSU? I don't think you're getting either UA or ASU. They're blowing smoke.

Even if the SWC acquisitions all split from the current Big XII, I doubt you could get the entire Big 8 back together to "redo" a Big XII in its wake. Colorado and Nebraska were nearly courted away even back then. And, really, the Big 8 blew it twice: passing on Arkansas and not giving Colorado another western school when setting up the Big XII.

Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

(03-16-2020 12:51 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I see no shake up what so ever *IF* the B12 goes back to uneven revenue sharing, so that OU and Texas can keep pace with the B1G and SEC in revenue.

There already is uneven revenue sharing, in that TX and OU have separate Tier 3 rights deals, and those are substantial, as Texas's LHN deal shows.

And in any event, while the Little 8 may not like OU and TX making a lot more, what can they do about it? As the Iowa State AD said a couple years ago, without those two they are a G5 school. Neither the SEC or B1G, the only places where they could get a raise, want any of them, and they know it.

(03-17-2020 10:22 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

This is how I thought that was going to play.

Big 14
North: Utah, BYU, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St
South: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Something like that

(03-17-2020 10:22 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

Adding LSU and Oklahoma might have kept the Southwest Conference afloat too, but that didn't happen and neither did it for the Big 12.

(03-17-2020 01:14 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 10:22 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

This is how I thought that was going to play.

Big 14
North: Utah, BYU, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St
South: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Something like that

It was actually BYU and New Mexico at the time they did the trademark on “The Big 14”. It was not Utah being considered it was Old Houston AD and then—the new at the time New Mexico AD Rudy Davalos—who actually said “No, New Mexico belongs in the WAC with western schools”. I followed the collapse of the SWC and creation of the Big 12 very closely at the time.

I seriously doubt that neither Nebraska or Arkansas or Missouri or Texas A&M would come back to the Big XII. Colorado I'm not sure. That doesn't leave many options for the
Big XII other than having more mouths to feed. The uneven distribution of revenue may eventually doom the conference. We'll see.

(03-17-2020 10:22 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

Are you talking back in the day in previous realignment? On paper, yes it would have, but out of those three, I only see Utah as being realistic. Arkansas wasn't giving up the sweet SEC cash and BYU had/has the honor code issue that would make it undesirable to some decision makers.

(03-19-2020 09:29 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 10:22 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

Are you talking back in the day in previous realignment? On paper, yes it would have, but out of those three, I only see Utah as being realistic. Arkansas wasn't giving up the sweet SEC cash and BYU had/has the honor code issue that would make it undesirable to some decision makers.

Arkansas left the SWC before the SWC died. Utah was on par with BYU in the MWC I believe. Non of them were ever really considered for the Big XII.

Like the the idea of ASU, Arizona, and USC going to the Big 12 and WVU leaving. USC so wants football to be relevant again while the Arizonas needs a Cali school. The Big 12 suddenly becomes a power and the PAC 12 needs to expand again.

(03-20-2020 09:14 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(03-19-2020 09:29 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 10:22 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Adding Arkansas, Utah, & BYU would've really buffered up the Big 8/XII.

Are you talking back in the day in previous realignment? On paper, yes it would have, but out of those three, I only see Utah as being realistic. Arkansas wasn't giving up the sweet SEC cash and BYU had/has the honor code issue that would make it undesirable to some decision makers.

Arkansas left the SWC before the SWC died. Utah was on par with BYU in the MWC I believe. Non of them were ever really considered for the Big XII.

I'd guess the Big 8 really only wanted Texas and Texas A&M. The only reason it was a 12 at all was because of the meddling Texas politicians.

I think it is unlikely USC goes to the Big12 without the other 3 Pac12 CA schools. But I could well see a shuffling of the PAC12: and Big12 to create two California and Texas based conferences.

Pac12/Big12 Merger
West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Wash, Ore, AZ, Utah
East: Texas, Kan, Ok, Colorado, T Tech, TCU, Nebraska, Houston

The left overs fill in:
West: Washington St, Oregon State, Arizona State, Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, BYU

East: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Cincinnati, SMU,

P5 Adds, given my druthers:

ACC: West Virginia, UCONN, UMASS, Rutgers, Maryland, Temple, Penn St.
BIG 10: Missouri, Iowa St., Notre Dame, Cincinnati,
SEC: FSU, THE U, GA Tech, Clemson, Louisville, Memphis, Tulane
BIG XII: Nebraska, Texas A&M, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa, Colorado, CSU, NM ST., UNM
PAC-12: Utah St., BYU, UNLV, Nevada, Boise St., SD ST., SJ ST., Fresno St., Hawaii

Now, I OBVIOUSLY harbor no illusions of this happening.

(03-20-2020 09:40 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I think it is unlikely USC goes to the Big12 without the other 3 Pac12 CA schools. But I could well see a shuffling of the PAC12: and Big12 to create two California and Texas based conferences.

Pac12/Big12 Merger
West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Wash, Ore, AZ, Utah
East: Texas, Kan, Ok, Colorado, T Tech, TCU, Nebraska, Houston

The left overs fill in:
West: Washington St, Oregon State, Arizona State, Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, BYU

East: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Cincinnati, SMU,

See Rice getting in before Houston, as the PAC AAU schools would much prefer them.