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OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
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VB Monarch Offline
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Post: #2341
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Seems there is a difference between actual rate of increase and rate of discovery of existing cases. Increased testing obviously results in more discovered cases, but in hot spot areas the rate of testing is not 6x higher than previous and rate of increase appears to far out pace testing. Difficult to quantify, but when hospitals report near capacity with covid, seems reasonable to assume rate of infection has increased.
07-08-2020 10:39 AM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #2342
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
We have to be careful even with testing data, as it really isn't that great.

Here's an example (this same thing happened in Virginia a month or two ago): https://alachuachronicle.com/covid-test-...-reported/
07-08-2020 10:56 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2343
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.
07-08-2020 12:06 PM
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Monarchblue Online
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Post: #2344
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.
07-08-2020 12:11 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2345
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:11 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.

Which is silly.
07-08-2020 12:12 PM
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mturn017 Online
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Post: #2346
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:12 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:11 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.

Which is silly.

No there's certainly been some related casualties. Suicides, heart attacks and other health conditions where people didn't want to or unable to get treatment at a hospital. The number of at home deaths is definitely up this year in many areas. Some of those are also Covid deaths as well though. Excess deaths is a good measure but it's going to be a while before all that can be fleshed out. It's a mistake to just look at death being the only permanent consequence from Covid though.
07-08-2020 12:44 PM
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VB Monarch Offline
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Post: #2347
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Far to soon to know the long term effects of having covid. Neurological damage, lung scarring ( which can lead to pulmonary fibrosis), damaged liver function, stroke etc. All of these have been seen in covid patients. We won't know for decades what the long term, lasting effects can be. While children APPEAR to suffer less, fact is we don't really know what long term damage may be occuring.
07-08-2020 01:20 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2348
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:44 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:12 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:11 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.

Which is silly.

No there's certainly been some related casualties. Suicides, heart attacks and other health conditions where people didn't want to or unable to get treatment at a hospital. The number of at home deaths is definitely up this year in many areas. Some of those are also Covid deaths as well though. Excess deaths is a good measure but it's going to be a while before all that can be fleshed out. It's a mistake to just look at death being the only permanent consequence from Covid though.

A small number, yes. The implication is that there the shutdown has been cruel and the reason for excess deaths is absurd.

And I certainly agree with the sentiment that deaths aren't everything but they are the most important gauge to tell what the impact of COVID is. The total number of cases is almost meaningless. The number of hospitalizations are an important indicator as well but without knowing what the long term affects are, I would look at excess deaths to decide the rate of opening things back up.
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 02:56 PM by Gilesfan.)
07-08-2020 02:54 PM
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ODUDJ96 Offline
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Post: #2349
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Cases are on the rise in Virginia. I hope the coming weeks are kind.
07-08-2020 07:18 PM
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mturn017 Online
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Post: #2350
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 07:18 PM)ODUDJ96 Wrote:  Cases are on the rise in Virginia. I hope the coming weeks are kind.

We had a big jump in the Roanoke area the last few weeks. About 80% of the new cases were traced to people returning from Myrtle Beach. Anecdotally I've heard a lot of those were senior beach week goers.
07-09-2020 08:11 AM
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Post: #2351
OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
This is a really interesting analysis. A ton of data.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/seco...KSTXD-ttRw

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07-09-2020 07:59 PM
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mturn017 Online
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Post: #2352
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-09-2020 07:59 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  This is a really interesting analysis. A ton of data.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/seco...KSTXD-ttRw

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The next couple weeks will tell the tale. The last three days daily deaths have exceeded 900 which haven’t happened in a month. Daily data is unreliable due to reporting delays but right now the 7 day average curve has started to turn upward. We will see.
07-09-2020 08:50 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2353
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
07-09-2020 09:53 PM
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757ODU Offline
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Post: #2354
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-09-2020 09:53 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  https://www.pilotonline.com/sports/vp-sp...story.html

So he got sick from a virus. Very sick. People get very sick from the flu. I had the flu last year, and felt like I was going to die. My buddy had covid-19 and felt sick, but not as bad as I did last year.
07-10-2020 06:22 AM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #2355
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Here's a letter written by a bunch of high level health professionals and politicians in Canada, sent to their government. This is part of it:

Quote:The fundamental determinants of health - education, employment, social connection and medical and dental care - must take priority. Measures for COVID-19 control need to accommodate these health determinants. Children need to go to interact with their peers, in child care, schools, sports and social activities, and summer camps. Adults need to go to work. Family and friends need to meet.

The societal costs of maintaining these public health measures, even with some gradual relaxation, are too high. Canadians are missing scheduled medical appointments and surgeries, which will lead to increased deaths. There are significant challenges for our young with impact on early childhood development, one of the strongest predictors of life-long health and social outcomes. Education is compromised. There are increases in domestic violence, alcohol and drug intake, and food insecurity. The economic consequences are huge. This leads to increased unemployment which is related to increased deaths. And the toll on mental health is just beginning to be felt. Personal concerns about the disease, cases and deaths in friends and family, loneliness and isolation, worries about jobs and finances, parents having to juggle childcare and general insecurity are leading to increased levels of anxiety, depression and stress.

We need to shift from a mindset of attempting to eradicate this disease, which is not feasible and will lead to continued devastation of our society, to a new goal.

Our new goal: Minimize the impact of COVID-19 using methods that are practical, effective and compatible with our values and sense of social justice. We need to focus on preventing deaths and serious illness by protecting the vulnerable while allowing society to function.

Elimination of COVID-19 is not a practical objective for Canada until we have a vaccine. We need to accept that there will be cases and outbreaks of COVID-19. We should mitigate the effects of the disease with measures that are equitable, sustainable and acceptable. This includes testing and contact tracing, and ensuring that health services with access to the latest treatments are available for those who contract the disease.

Those at highest risk of severe consequences need to be offered effective protection from COVID-19, particularly those in long-term care institutions, but this protection must be respectful of their autonomy and allow them a reasonable quality of life.

Full statement here: http://balancedresponse.ca/statement/
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2020 08:04 AM by ODUCoach.)
07-10-2020 08:03 AM
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