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OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #2181
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.
07-08-2020 12:11 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2182
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:11 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.

Which is silly.
07-08-2020 12:12 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #2183
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:12 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:11 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.

Which is silly.

No there's certainly been some related casualties. Suicides, heart attacks and other health conditions where people didn't want to or unable to get treatment at a hospital. The number of at home deaths is definitely up this year in many areas. Some of those are also Covid deaths as well though. Excess deaths is a good measure but it's going to be a while before all that can be fleshed out. It's a mistake to just look at death being the only permanent consequence from Covid though.
07-08-2020 12:44 PM
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VB Monarch Offline
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Post: #2184
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Far to soon to know the long term effects of having covid. Neurological damage, lung scarring ( which can lead to pulmonary fibrosis), damaged liver function, stroke etc. All of these have been seen in covid patients. We won't know for decades what the long term, lasting effects can be. While children APPEAR to suffer less, fact is we don't really know what long term damage may be occuring.
07-08-2020 01:20 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 12:44 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:12 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:11 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(07-08-2020 12:06 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  There is no point in looking at number of cases. Some states like Georgia and Florida are cooking the books and others have put out misleading data.

Not method is foolproof. To me, it makes way too much sense to focus on excess deaths because that is likely going to be the best indication for how many people are dying. Obviously hospitalizations should also be considered because we cannot let them be overwelmed. But, nothing gives us the best indicator better than excess deaths, imo. I don't believe in coincidences.

Many believe that there are excess deaths that were caused by the lockdown, and not just COVID. You would need to take a bit of a closer look than just to call all excess deaths COVID deaths.

Which is silly.

No there's certainly been some related casualties. Suicides, heart attacks and other health conditions where people didn't want to or unable to get treatment at a hospital. The number of at home deaths is definitely up this year in many areas. Some of those are also Covid deaths as well though. Excess deaths is a good measure but it's going to be a while before all that can be fleshed out. It's a mistake to just look at death being the only permanent consequence from Covid though.

A small number, yes. The implication is that there the shutdown has been cruel and the reason for excess deaths is absurd.

And I certainly agree with the sentiment that deaths aren't everything but they are the most important gauge to tell what the impact of COVID is. The total number of cases is almost meaningless. The number of hospitalizations are an important indicator as well but without knowing what the long term affects are, I would look at excess deaths to decide the rate of opening things back up.
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020 02:56 PM by Gilesfan.)
07-08-2020 02:54 PM
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ODUDJ96 Offline
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Post: #2186
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Cases are on the rise in Virginia. I hope the coming weeks are kind.
07-08-2020 07:18 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #2187
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-08-2020 07:18 PM)ODUDJ96 Wrote:  Cases are on the rise in Virginia. I hope the coming weeks are kind.

We had a big jump in the Roanoke area the last few weeks. About 80% of the new cases were traced to people returning from Myrtle Beach. Anecdotally I've heard a lot of those were senior beach week goers.
07-09-2020 08:11 AM
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Monarchblue Offline
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OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
This is a really interesting analysis. A ton of data.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/seco...KSTXD-ttRw

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07-09-2020 07:59 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #2189
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-09-2020 07:59 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  This is a really interesting analysis. A ton of data.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/seco...KSTXD-ttRw

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The next couple weeks will tell the tale. The last three days daily deaths have exceeded 900 which haven’t happened in a month. Daily data is unreliable due to reporting delays but right now the 7 day average curve has started to turn upward. We will see.
07-09-2020 08:50 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #2190
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
07-09-2020 09:53 PM
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757ODU Offline
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Post: #2191
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-09-2020 09:53 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  https://www.pilotonline.com/sports/vp-sp...story.html

So he got sick from a virus. Very sick. People get very sick from the flu. I had the flu last year, and felt like I was going to die. My buddy had covid-19 and felt sick, but not as bad as I did last year.
07-10-2020 06:22 AM
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ODUCoach Online
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Post: #2192
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Here's a letter written by a bunch of high level health professionals and politicians in Canada, sent to their government. This is part of it:

Quote:The fundamental determinants of health - education, employment, social connection and medical and dental care - must take priority. Measures for COVID-19 control need to accommodate these health determinants. Children need to go to interact with their peers, in child care, schools, sports and social activities, and summer camps. Adults need to go to work. Family and friends need to meet.

The societal costs of maintaining these public health measures, even with some gradual relaxation, are too high. Canadians are missing scheduled medical appointments and surgeries, which will lead to increased deaths. There are significant challenges for our young with impact on early childhood development, one of the strongest predictors of life-long health and social outcomes. Education is compromised. There are increases in domestic violence, alcohol and drug intake, and food insecurity. The economic consequences are huge. This leads to increased unemployment which is related to increased deaths. And the toll on mental health is just beginning to be felt. Personal concerns about the disease, cases and deaths in friends and family, loneliness and isolation, worries about jobs and finances, parents having to juggle childcare and general insecurity are leading to increased levels of anxiety, depression and stress.

We need to shift from a mindset of attempting to eradicate this disease, which is not feasible and will lead to continued devastation of our society, to a new goal.

Our new goal: Minimize the impact of COVID-19 using methods that are practical, effective and compatible with our values and sense of social justice. We need to focus on preventing deaths and serious illness by protecting the vulnerable while allowing society to function.

Elimination of COVID-19 is not a practical objective for Canada until we have a vaccine. We need to accept that there will be cases and outbreaks of COVID-19. We should mitigate the effects of the disease with measures that are equitable, sustainable and acceptable. This includes testing and contact tracing, and ensuring that health services with access to the latest treatments are available for those who contract the disease.

Those at highest risk of severe consequences need to be offered effective protection from COVID-19, particularly those in long-term care institutions, but this protection must be respectful of their autonomy and allow them a reasonable quality of life.

Full statement here: http://balancedresponse.ca/statement/
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2020 08:04 AM by ODUCoach.)
07-10-2020 08:03 AM
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DaBigBlue Offline
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Post: #2193
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Heard Florida had more new cases in one day than South Korea had total during the Pandemic. Come on guys we more likely to have another shut down, than have kids in school.
07-13-2020 08:34 PM
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AdoptedMonarch Online
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Post: #2194
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-13-2020 08:34 PM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  Heard Florida had more new cases in one day than South Korea had total during the Pandemic. Come on guys we more likely to have another shut down, than have kids in school.

That's very likely true. We cannot possibly expect teachers and school administrators to assume any level of risk whatsoever.

Now stop complaining and get back into the grocery store stocking those shelves you meaningless peons.
07-14-2020 05:43 AM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #2195
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-13-2020 08:34 PM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  Heard Florida had more new cases in one day than South Korea had total during the Pandemic. Come on guys we more likely to have another shut down, than have kids in school.

It was also the single most tests ever administered in one day, and on that day the percentage of positives actually went down. That is not to say there are not an awful lot of cases in FL, but there is some hyperbole in your statement. An important reality to remember amid the increased cases recently is that we are about the only country that is testing anyone who wants a test. Other countries are still testing the way we tested early on where you had to have symptoms and contact with a person who was positive. There are also a lot of cases being found in people going to the hospital for other treatments now that hospitals are fully operational again. So, yes there is a surge in cases, but there are some mitigating factors to keep in mind when evaluating how bad it actually is.
07-14-2020 08:15 AM
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VB Monarch Offline
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RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Did I hear this or am I dreaming? Devos herself said opening schools this fall would probably lead to a .02% fatality rate amomgst kids. That works out to about 14,700 dead children.

The main reason trump wants schools open is so parents can go back to work, thus lowering unemployment rate. It's all about him getting reelected, hell with collateral damage.
07-14-2020 08:22 AM
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Mo Blue Den You Offline
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Post: #2197
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-14-2020 08:22 AM)VB Monarch Wrote:  Did I hear this or am I dreaming? Devos herself said opening schools this fall would probably lead to a .02% fatality rate amomgst kids. That works out to about 14,700 dead children.

The main reason trump wants schools open is so parents can go back to work, thus lowering unemployment rate. It's all about him getting reelected, hell with collateral damage.

Your opinion is only your opinion. Just remember that 03-wink
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2020 09:08 AM by Mo Blue Den You.)
07-14-2020 09:08 AM
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VB Monarch Offline
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RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Should remember to put IMHO in my messages. Or as a friend of mine always says "in my humble but accurate opinion.":stirthepot:
07-14-2020 09:19 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-14-2020 08:22 AM)VB Monarch Wrote:  Did I hear this or am I dreaming? Devos herself said opening schools this fall would probably lead to a .02% fatality rate amomgst kids. That works out to about 14,700 dead children.

The main reason trump wants schools open is so parents can go back to work, thus lowering unemployment rate. It's all about him getting reelected, hell with collateral damage.

I can't see any chance of opening schools if you think there is a chance to have 15,000 dead children. I don't care what anyone says. The threat in children is certainly low but that doesn't mean Im gonna rush to put my kids in that environment. Its not like kids can socially distance themselves.

I will homeschool them before I even consider that.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2020 11:09 AM by Gilesfan.)
07-14-2020 10:07 AM
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Mo Blue Den You Offline
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RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(07-14-2020 10:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(07-14-2020 08:22 AM)VB Monarch Wrote:  Did I hear this or am I dreaming? Devos herself said opening schools this fall would probably lead to a .02% fatality rate amomgst kids. That works out to about 14,700 dead children.

The main reason trump wants schools open is so parents can go back to work, thus lowering unemployment rate. It's all about him getting reelected, hell with collateral damage.

I can't see any chance of opening schools if you thing there is a chance to have 15,000 dead children. I don't care what anyone says. The threat in children is certainly low but that doesn't mean Im gonna rush to put my kids in that environment. Its not like kids can socially distance themselves.

I will homeschool them before I even consider that.

So what do all the parents do, who dont own their own business like you do Giles?

You may very well be able to stay at home forever and homeschool your kids. Some of us, live more of the reality where work from home isnt doable and both parents' income is required...

If some parents dont want to send their kids to school, then they should have that option which I have seen will be available. Others, including teachers and children (and parents) who want to be back in the classroom should be allowed to do that as well.

Make options and let people choose...
07-14-2020 10:49 AM
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