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OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #3621
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:04 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 02:13 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Who flattened the curve better?

[Image: Eh-iSHBXkAM9ZZg?format=jpg&name=large]

Why would anyone even try to make this comparison? What is the difference in population density between the 2 states? This seems silly.

Thats like saying "who flattened the curve better, Roanoke or Arlington?"

You have a weird excuse for everything.

How is this an excuse? Do you think population density has an impact on covid cases?
09-15-2020 03:09 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #3622
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 02:13 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Who flattened the curve better?

[Image: Eh-iSHBXkAM9ZZg?format=jpg&name=large]

You'd have to look at cases per day to find out.

Huh?

This chart is deaths per day not cases per day. To know who "flattened the curve" better you would have to look at cases per day. We all know the early days which largely affected NY and NJ were deadlier.
09-15-2020 03:13 PM
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Chillie Willie Offline
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Post: #3623
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Study: Urban Desnity Not Linked to Higher Infection Rates -- Is Linked to Lower COVID Death Rates
That is great to hear but there is so much conflicting data I dont know what to believe anymore. As soon as somebody comes out with a study, somebody else comes out with on contradicting it.
09-15-2020 03:14 PM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #3624
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:09 PM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Also weird is the title of the graph says Texas but the graph says Florida. Typo or wrong data?

Typo. The author pointed it out in a later tweet.
09-15-2020 03:14 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #3625
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:09 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:04 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 02:13 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Who flattened the curve better?

[Image: Eh-iSHBXkAM9ZZg?format=jpg&name=large]

Why would anyone even try to make this comparison? What is the difference in population density between the 2 states? This seems silly.

Thats like saying "who flattened the curve better, Roanoke or Arlington?"

You have a weird excuse for everything.

How is this an excuse? Do you think population density has an impact on covid cases?

Not that much. However I do think piss poor management of the vulnerable population has a massive effect on COVID cases and deaths.

Also, See Coach's post above.
09-15-2020 03:15 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #3626
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:13 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 02:13 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Who flattened the curve better?

[Image: Eh-iSHBXkAM9ZZg?format=jpg&name=large]

You'd have to look at cases per day to find out.

Huh?

This chart is deaths per day not cases per day. To know who "flattened the curve" better you would have to look at cases per day. We all know the early days which largely affected NY and NJ were deadlier.

Who the hell cares who administered more tests. We already know that there was not a readily available supply of tests during the height of the NY shitshow, so the positive case numbers are meaningless. You know what is not meaningless? The only thing that matters. How many people died.
09-15-2020 03:17 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #3627
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
09-15-2020 03:20 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #3628
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:17 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:13 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 02:13 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Who flattened the curve better?

[Image: Eh-iSHBXkAM9ZZg?format=jpg&name=large]

You'd have to look at cases per day to find out.

Huh?

This chart is deaths per day not cases per day. To know who "flattened the curve" better you would have to look at cases per day. We all know the early days which largely affected NY and NJ were deadlier.

Who the hell cares who administered more tests. We already know that there was not a readily available supply of tests during the height of the NY shitshow, so the positive case numbers are meaningless. You know what is not meaningless? The only thing that matters. How many people died.

Well when you're talking about "flattening the curve" you are literally talking about the spread of the virus and it's effect on hospital utilization. Both NY and FL were stretched in this regard as well as parts of TX.
09-15-2020 03:21 PM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #3629
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:20 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Study: Urban Desnity Not Linked to Higher Infection Rates -- Is Linked to Lower COVID Death Rates

https://www.uta.edu/math/_docs/preprint/...014_05.pdf

So studies that show masks are useless are old studies and shouldn't be used (even if they were published in May), but studies from 5 years ago about density's effect on viral spreads, they're good.

Here's the thing: it would make sense to me that more dense populations would have more spreading of the virus. But, I can't keep up with this "Listen to the scientists over here, not the scientists over there" game. it's why, all along, my only point was to let me make decisions for myself, and I'll offer you the same opportunity.
09-15-2020 03:25 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #3630
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:21 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:17 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:13 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  You'd have to look at cases per day to find out.

Huh?

This chart is deaths per day not cases per day. To know who "flattened the curve" better you would have to look at cases per day. We all know the early days which largely affected NY and NJ were deadlier.

Who the hell cares who administered more tests. We already know that there was not a readily available supply of tests during the height of the NY shitshow, so the positive case numbers are meaningless. You know what is not meaningless? The only thing that matters. How many people died.

Well when you're talking about "flattening the curve" you are literally talking about the spread of the virus and it's effect on hospital utilization. Both NY and FL were stretched in this regard as well as parts of TX.

This is absurd, and pure spin. Those situations were not even remotely similar. In fact, it is disputed by local health officials that FL or TX were ever in danger of truly overwhelming hospitals, while NYC was treating people in hallways, convention centers, and had to call on the military to provide and damn ship, while sending COVID positive patients back to nursing homes to free up hospital beds. We can have a debate on facts, but sometimes the facts are overwhelming, and in those cases we should not try to spin a positive into a negative to protect our political position. You are seriously arguing that it is of no consequence that the death rates were vastly different because somehow positive test results, not even cases, is more important.
09-15-2020 03:29 PM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #3631
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
Here's a point in NY's favor: It appears they may have hit herd immunity.



Of course, the insistence of the Mayor and Governor to keep them locked down is asinine in light of that statement.
09-15-2020 03:37 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #3632
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:21 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:17 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:13 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Huh?

This chart is deaths per day not cases per day. To know who "flattened the curve" better you would have to look at cases per day. We all know the early days which largely affected NY and NJ were deadlier.

Who the hell cares who administered more tests. We already know that there was not a readily available supply of tests during the height of the NY shitshow, so the positive case numbers are meaningless. You know what is not meaningless? The only thing that matters. How many people died.

Well when you're talking about "flattening the curve" you are literally talking about the spread of the virus and it's effect on hospital utilization. Both NY and FL were stretched in this regard as well as parts of TX.

This is absurd, and pure spin. Those situations were not even remotely similar. In fact, it is disputed by local health officials that FL or TX were ever in danger of truly overwhelming hospitals, while NYC was treating people in hallways, convention centers, and had to call on the military to provide and damn ship, while sending COVID positive patients back to nursing homes to free up hospital beds. We can have a debate on facts, but sometimes the facts are overwhelming, and in those cases we should not try to spin a positive into a negative to protect our political position. You are seriously arguing that it is of no consequence that the death rates were vastly different because somehow positive test results, not even cases, is more important.

Local health officials say one thing, hospital officials were saying another. Houston was stretched, Miami Dade was stretched. People that tell you otherwise are lying to you. Yes there were people in hallways in Houston, I heard it from a nurses mouth so I'm not as keen to believe the local officials. New York was worse. Worse in a lot of ways with death rate being the clearest. They have democratic leadership sure but were also the first major outbreak in the country. But after watching the shitshow in NY, TX and FL and many others opened up before meeting the POTUS' guidelines for opening (while being urged by Trump to do so) so who really has the worse management? Give it time, at the pace FL is going they'll surpass NY in deaths by the spring.

Still. If you want to discuss this you have to use the right terms. Flattening the curve = cases.
09-15-2020 03:42 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #3633
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:25 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:20 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Study: Urban Desnity Not Linked to Higher Infection Rates -- Is Linked to Lower COVID Death Rates

https://www.uta.edu/math/_docs/preprint/...014_05.pdf

So studies that show masks are useless are old studies and shouldn't be used (even if they were published in May), but studies from 5 years ago about density's effect on viral spreads, they're good.

Here's the thing: it would make sense to me that more dense populations would have more spreading of the virus. But, I can't keep up with this "Listen to the scientists over here, not the scientists over there" game. it's why, all along, my only point was to let me make decisions for myself, and I'll offer you the same opportunity.

I don't believe I've ever referenced a study on masks. To me, I really don't care. Its a minor inconvenience at best to throw on a maks before I enter a store. If it ends up not preventing the spread of the virus, oh well, i'm out of $3.50. If it does, cool, I was reponsible.
09-15-2020 04:20 PM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #3634
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
It’s not about the masks. It’s about the “this science is good, but that science is not” nonsense. Perhaps, we don’t know much about anything. I’m ok admitting I certainly fall in that camp.

But, again, given there is science that says masks work, and science that say masks aren’t effective, and science that says density matters, and other science that says not so much...isn’t our best course of action to lay it all out there and let individuals decide what is best for them? That’s been my point all along...
09-15-2020 04:53 PM
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smudge12 Offline
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Post: #3635
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
The chart is an apples to orange comparison, but it does tell some stories.

Taking density out of the equation (although I have a tough time understanding how you can), New York City was hit when little was known about the virus, the effects, or effective methods to treat it. Masks and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus made it to NYC, and healthcare officials (globally) were still figuring out how to best take care of patients. Neither testing nor contact tracing were widespread items either, and few tools were available to make them available (especially testing). There was little help from the Feds either.

In that sense, it can be legitimately argued the Executive branch withholding information from Governors didn't allow states to prepare as best they could.

Anyways, I give DeSantis' government (and others) flack because we're months into the pandemic, have solutions on control methods, yet his inaction and casual disregard of science make things worse than it should be. There's no excuse we're in October and ~1000 Americans/day are still dying (and likely more).

At least testing is more accessible and healthcare officials have a better grasp how to save patients, which certainly benefits Florida (and everyone). If you want to give DeSantis credit, that's on you, but I give credit to the people fighting on the ground despite his ignorance.

To be honest, considering NYC alone is 40% of Florida's population, I'm impressed it's managed the outbreak so well since getting it under control. It's proof listening to science and data works, but it's also sad NYC didn't have the luxury of science and data at the start. In a way, they became the data.
(This post was last modified: 09-16-2020 10:38 AM by smudge12.)
09-16-2020 10:13 AM
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ODUCoach Offline
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Post: #3636
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
I wanted to bring this discussion over from the other thread, although at this point, I'm not sure it matters. But, anyway...

(09-16-2020 10:18 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  I do not see the corrleation you are trying to make. The decision of ODU has zero impact on me (outside of not being able to watch games). It doesn't affect me. It is the decision of a public institution.

The Gov. decision to lockdown or not has a huge impact on me. Whether others take the virus seriously or if they listen to Trump has an impact on me.

At this point, what businesses are locked down and told to shut up?

While businesses may not be "locked down" in the literal sense, every business has all kinds of restrictions in place and are being told to shut up about it. When my local gym opened, and the government, based on fire code, told them the capacity of the building, they built a financial structure based on that information. Now, they are told they have to keep business to a fraction of that. They have no say about it either. Same with my buddy's restaurant, that had a very slim profit margin under the rules he was originally given. Now, the government changes those rules. He's basically told to shut up about it. Our neighborhood hardware store has seen his business negatively impacted by the mask mandate, so he decided he wasn't going to enforce it. A single customer came in, complained about the non-enforcement, left, and then a few hours later a government official showed up and threatened to close his doors if he didn't enforce it. His recourse. Shut up.

Seriously, don't you see the problem?
09-16-2020 10:56 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #3637
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-16-2020 10:56 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  I wanted to bring this discussion over from the other thread, although at this point, I'm not sure it matters. But, anyway...

(09-16-2020 10:18 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  I do not see the corrleation you are trying to make. The decision of ODU has zero impact on me (outside of not being able to watch games). It doesn't affect me. It is the decision of a public institution.

The Gov. decision to lockdown or not has a huge impact on me. Whether others take the virus seriously or if they listen to Trump has an impact on me.

At this point, what businesses are locked down and told to shut up?

While businesses may not be "locked down" in the literal sense, every business has all kinds of restrictions in place and are being told to shut up about it. When my local gym opened, and the government, based on fire code, told them the capacity of the building, they built a financial structure based on that information. Now, they are told they have to keep business to a fraction of that. They have no say about it either. Same with my buddy's restaurant, that had a very slim profit margin under the rules he was originally given. Now, the government changes those rules. He's basically told to shut up about it. Our neighborhood hardware store has seen his business negatively impacted by the mask mandate, so he decided he wasn't going to enforce it. A single customer came in, complained about the non-enforcement, left, and then a few hours later a government official showed up and threatened to close his doors if he didn't enforce it. His recourse. Shut up.

Seriously, don't you see the problem?

Im reading through scratching my head a bit, but I have a good friend that has a gym and the gym exploded with members this summer. Obviously, not every business is affected to the same degree. How was the neighborhood hardware store negatively affected by people having to wear a mask?

My business has luckily taken off with only minor invconviences (wearing a mask when I go somewhere). I miss going out to restraurants with friends, but have decided to be on the safer side in that respect (ordering out and touchless delivery). Does it suck that some businesses are affected....absolutely! Are there consequences when we have to make tough decisions....absolutely.

But, I don't and will not agree that we should just let everyone make their own decision. Im not interested in any anarchy. We can go round and round about this all year long but your viewpoint on it won't change mine and vice versa. IMO, something had to be done to slow the spread of COVID-19. And despite the measures taken, we are still at 200k deaths, but likely saved a bunch more.
09-16-2020 11:11 AM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #3638
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-16-2020 10:13 AM)smudge12 Wrote:  The chart is an apples to orange comparison, but it does tell some stories.

Taking density out of the equation (although I have a tough time understanding how you can), New York City was hit when little was known about the virus, the effects, or effective methods to treat it. Masks and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus made it to NYC, and healthcare officials (globally) were still figuring out how to best take care of patients. Neither testing nor contact tracing were widespread items either, and few tools were available to make them available (especially testing). There was little help from the Feds either.

In that sense, it can be legitimately argued the Executive branch withholding information from Governors didn't allow states to prepare as best they could.

Anyways, I give DeSantis' government (and others) flack because we're months into the pandemic, have solutions on control methods, yet his inaction and casual disregard of science make things worse than it should be. There's no excuse we're in October and ~1000 Americans/day are still dying (and likely more).

At least testing is more accessible and healthcare officials have a better grasp how to save patients, which certainly benefits Florida (and everyone). If you want to give DeSantis credit, that's on you, but I give credit to the people fighting on the ground despite his ignorance.

To be honest, considering NYC alone is 40% of Florida's population, I'm impressed it's managed the outbreak so well since getting it under control. It's proof listening to science and data works, but it's also sad NYC didn't have the luxury of science and data at the start. In a way, they became the data.

How do you explain the fact that California had a similar outbreak to FL and at essentially the same time, even though they follow the exact prescription that you are upset with Desantis for not following? How do you explain the fact that much of Europe is seeing the same kind of increases that we saw in the first wave for states like FL, AZ, TX and CA if dumb Republican policies are the reason for outbreaks? Alternatively, we can accept the reality that nobody is exempt from COVID flare ups, no matter how hard they try destroy the economy under the guise of social distancing. The virus very obviously takes of, burns hot, hits her immunity relatively quickly, and the subsides. It is the same sequence everywhere regardless of lockdown efforts. I just could not be any more obvious at this point.
09-16-2020 12:32 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #3639
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-16-2020 11:11 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-16-2020 10:56 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  I wanted to bring this discussion over from the other thread, although at this point, I'm not sure it matters. But, anyway...

(09-16-2020 10:18 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  I do not see the corrleation you are trying to make. The decision of ODU has zero impact on me (outside of not being able to watch games). It doesn't affect me. It is the decision of a public institution.

The Gov. decision to lockdown or not has a huge impact on me. Whether others take the virus seriously or if they listen to Trump has an impact on me.

At this point, what businesses are locked down and told to shut up?

While businesses may not be "locked down" in the literal sense, every business has all kinds of restrictions in place and are being told to shut up about it. When my local gym opened, and the government, based on fire code, told them the capacity of the building, they built a financial structure based on that information. Now, they are told they have to keep business to a fraction of that. They have no say about it either. Same with my buddy's restaurant, that had a very slim profit margin under the rules he was originally given. Now, the government changes those rules. He's basically told to shut up about it. Our neighborhood hardware store has seen his business negatively impacted by the mask mandate, so he decided he wasn't going to enforce it. A single customer came in, complained about the non-enforcement, left, and then a few hours later a government official showed up and threatened to close his doors if he didn't enforce it. His recourse. Shut up.

Seriously, don't you see the problem?

Im reading through scratching my head a bit, but I have a good friend that has a gym and the gym exploded with members this summer. Obviously, not every business is affected to the same degree. How was the neighborhood hardware store negatively affected by people having to wear a mask?

My business has luckily taken off with only minor invconviences (wearing a mask when I go somewhere). I miss going out to restraurants with friends, but have decided to be on the safer side in that respect (ordering out and touchless delivery). Does it suck that some businesses are affected....absolutely! Are there consequences when we have to make tough decisions....absolutely.

But, I don't and will not agree that we should just let everyone make their own decision. Im not interested in any anarchy. We can go round and round about this all year long but your viewpoint on it won't change mine and vice versa. IMO, something had to be done to slow the spread of COVID-19. And despite the measures taken, we are still at 200k deaths, but likely saved a bunch more.

Can you provide evidence that limiting the capacity at gyms and restaurants has been effective in mitigating the virus. I'm looking forward to reviewing it.
09-16-2020 12:36 PM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #3640
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here?
(09-15-2020 03:13 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:06 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 02:13 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Who flattened the curve better?

[Image: Eh-iSHBXkAM9ZZg?format=jpg&name=large]

You'd have to look at cases per day to find out.

Huh?

This chart is deaths per day not cases per day. To know who "flattened the curve" better you would have to look at cases per day. We all know the early days which largely affected NY and NJ were deadlier.

Not necessarily. That is a theory, but in the early days there were far fewer tests and one may assume most cases were not caught (and most probably still aren't caught). The only apples to apples comparison we have are deaths. If the virus is in fact weakening as per your explanation, then it is time to open up everything.
(This post was last modified: 09-16-2020 12:38 PM by EverRespect.)
09-16-2020 12:37 PM
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