Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

I'm hearing a kid from Turner Ashby high school has it, so I'm guessing that will be closed along with the middle school the siblings attend.

(03-11-2020 03:35 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 02:37 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  This outbreak sucks. We're well past containment. I don't think closing schools is going to fix the problem but that's just me. I'm with OTP... be cautious, wash yo hands, protect yourself, keep a safe social distance, and hang on for the ride. If you are over 50 and/or have other health issues, take extra good care of yourself.

Over 60.

50 is young.

Not making any digs at the 50+ crowd; just referring to death rates of covid19 by age group; no known fatalities in age groups 0-9, 10-19 is .2% death rate in all cases, 20-29 is .2, 30-39 is .2%, 40-49 is .4%, 50-59 is 1.3%, 60-69 is 3.6, 70-79 is 8%, 80+ is 14.8%... so under 50 you have less than a .5% death rate. Under 60 you're still under 1.5% and I'm sure it's less if you have no preexisting issues.

(03-11-2020 04:21 PM)Bill Wrote:  I'm hearing a kid from Turner Ashby high school has it, so I'm guessing that will be closed along with the middle school the siblings attend.

As of earlier today there were no confirmed cases in the area. Sentara had 2 in their VA Beach system while the rest were in NoVa. But that's bound to expand.

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

Or 2 years ago, which was reportedly the worst flu season in 4 decades, close to 80 million cases, close to 1 million hospitalized, and close to 80k deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/images/about/flu...1152px.jpg

(03-11-2020 04:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

Too many countries reacting the same way. China shuts down major city? Italy pretty much closes down country. No fans at NCAA tournaments. Major Universities, and Companies telling their students and employees to work from home.

I'll take over cautious any day of the week.

This is uncharted waters for all.

My gut is this won't be as bad as I've heard it could be, but I don't know.

Contrary to the way I may sound on here, I'm laid back and take things as they come, but I've seen some folks at work pretty concerned & anxious. I'm optimistic, but uncertain if that makes sense. I'm washing my hands all the time, and advising my family to act appropriately, but I'm still not that stressed by the situation.

It will be interesting to see what pans out over of the next couple weeks/months.

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

A 0.02% mortality rate vs. what I last saw was around 2% and estimated that it’ll be around 1% by the time this is all done.

(03-11-2020 04:41 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

Too many countries reacting the same way. China shuts down major city? Italy pretty much closes down country. No fans at NCAA tournaments. Major Universities, and Companies telling their students and employees to work from home.

I'll take over cautious any day of the week.

This is uncharted waters for all.

My gut is this won't be as bad as I've heard it could be, but I don't know.

Contrary to the way I may sound on here, I'm laid back and take things as they come, but I've seen some folks at work pretty concerned & anxious. I'm optimistic, but uncertain if that makes sense. I'm washing my hands all the time, and advising my family to act appropriately, but I'm still not that stressed by the situation.

It will be interesting to see what pans out over of the next couple weeks/months.

Well said Dukester

The NCAA, who owns the Men's NIT, has announced for now the NIT will go on as planned...though, in my opinion only, that is subject to change. Not sure colleges are going to be interested in hosting games (or even traveling to games) in campus arenas with no paying spectators - especially when campuses are potentially closed to students/faculty/classes.

The connectivity of this to JMU involves our WBB team. I hope the Good Gals win the CAAT this week and head to the NCAAT, which will take place in front of no spectators (and be on campuses). There is still a decent chance we can be an at large invitee to the NCAAT if we don't win the CAAT I realize. However, if we don't get into the NCAAT (pity the thought), there is another chance the season is over. Meaning, the WNIT might (and it is only "might" at this point) cancel altogether for the same reasons the NIT might wind up that way.

We'll see. Hopefully the Lady Dukes down at Elon take care of business over the next 3 days starting tomorrow.

President Trump will address nation to share his thoughts on what he describes as "very important." Clear everything off your schedule for 9 PM for his health and economic announcements.

(03-11-2020 04:52 PM)HMK Wrote:  President Trump will address nation to share his thoughts on what he describes as "very important." Clear everything off your schedule for 9 PM for his health and economic announcements.

Is this the same guy who said we'd have a vaccine in a few months, there were plenty of test kits, and everything was contained?

Thanks, but I'll listen to the CDC/NIH professionals.

(03-11-2020 04:52 PM)HMK Wrote:  President Trump will lie to the nation to share his lies on what he lies about as "very important." Clear everything off your schedule for 9 PM for his lies and lying announcements.

FIFY

(03-11-2020 04:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

According to trackcorona.herokuapp.com which updates hourly, the US has over 1k confirmed cases now, 31 deaths, mortality rate of about 3%. The mortality rate now is grossly inflated because we've have had limited testing of mostly sick people. Some of the experts have stated could very well have/had 10x or more the # of cases, but we don't know because of the limited testing. S Korea (4th highest # of cases) is one country that has done mass testing (I've heard stated in the last week over 100k and over 200k) S Korea reported 7755 cases now, 61 dead, a mortality rate of under .8%.

Germany, with their drive through testing, reported 1524 cases, 2 dead. That's less than pneumonia.
https://news.yahoo.com/german-hospital-c...34506.html
I would take China's and Iran's (3rd highest # of reported cases) #s with a grain of salt. Why is Italy's (2nd highest # of reported cases) mortality rate so much higher than the rest of Europe?

There's epidemiologists who have stated its more contagious than the regular flu, but for under age 50, the effects likely no worse. As already stated on here, its the above 50 and pre existing conditions where the mortality rate starts increasing.

Where have you seen stated a potential for "millions" of US fatalities?

(03-11-2020 04:28 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 03:35 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 02:37 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  This outbreak sucks. We're well past containment. I don't think closing schools is going to fix the problem but that's just me. I'm with OTP... be cautious, wash yo hands, protect yourself, keep a safe social distance, and hang on for the ride. If you are over 50 and/or have other health issues, take extra good care of yourself.

Over 60.

50 is young.

Not making any digs at the 50+ crowd; just referring to death rates of covid19 by age group; no known fatalities in age groups 0-9, 10-19 is .2% death rate in all cases, 20-29 is .2, 30-39 is .2%, 40-49 is .4%, 50-59 is 1.3%, 60-69 is 3.6, 70-79 is 8%, 80+ is 14.8%... so under 50 you have less than a .5% death rate. Under 60 you're still under 1.5% and I'm sure it's less if you have no preexisting issues.

And those #s are inflated due to lack of testing so far & far more cases out there than we know about.

On a lighter note
-If there was ever a season to suck at basketball, this is it.
-Hopefully the worst of this is long gone by football season..

(03-11-2020 05:06 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

According to trackcorona.herokuapp.com which updates hourly, the US has over 1k confirmed cases now, 31 deaths, mortality rate of about 3%. The mortality rate now is grossly inflated because we've have had limited testing of mostly sick people. Some of the experts have stated could very well have/had 10x or more the # of cases, but we don't know because of the limited testing. S Korea (4th highest # of cases) is one country that has done mass testing (I've heard stated in the last week over 100k and over 200k) S Korea reported 7755 cases now, 61 dead, a mortality rate of under .8%.

Germany, with their drive through testing, reported 1524 cases, 2 dead. That's less than pneumonia.
https://news.yahoo.com/german-hospital-c...34506.html
I would take China's and Iran's (3rd highest # of reported cases) #s with a grain of salt. Why is Italy's (2nd highest # of reported cases) mortality rate so much higher than the rest of Europe?

There's epidemiologists who have stated its more contagious than the regular flu, but for under age 50, the effects likely no worse. As already stated on here, its the above 50 and pre existing conditions where the mortality rate starts increasing.

Where have you seen stated a potential for "millions" of US fatalities?

Plenty of anecdotal stats to throw around. The state of Washington had 281 cases reported with 24 deaths. The sky isn't falling, but there is no vaccine and the county (world) needs to take informed measured steps to mitigate the spread to threatened populations. We don't need panic, but we also don't need minimization and marginalization.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I'm more concerned about the financial ramifications, than the health.

I'm afraid you're going to see a lot of companies go down due to this potentially leading to the largest unemployment of the last 50 years.

This will hurt a lot of people financially.

(03-11-2020 05:14 PM)2Buck Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 05:06 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

According to trackcorona.herokuapp.com which updates hourly, the US has over 1k confirmed cases now, 31 deaths, mortality rate of about 3%. The mortality rate now is grossly inflated because we've have had limited testing of mostly sick people. Some of the experts have stated could very well have/had 10x or more the # of cases, but we don't know because of the limited testing. S Korea (4th highest # of cases) is one country that has done mass testing (I've heard stated in the last week over 100k and over 200k) S Korea reported 7755 cases now, 61 dead, a mortality rate of under .8%.

Germany, with their drive through testing, reported 1524 cases, 2 dead. That's less than pneumonia.
https://news.yahoo.com/german-hospital-c...34506.html
I would take China's and Iran's (3rd highest # of reported cases) #s with a grain of salt. Why is Italy's (2nd highest # of reported cases) mortality rate so much higher than the rest of Europe?

There's epidemiologists who have stated its more contagious than the regular flu, but for under age 50, the effects likely no worse. As already stated on here, its the above 50 and pre existing conditions where the mortality rate starts increasing.

Where have you seen stated a potential for "millions" of US fatalities?

Plenty of anecdotal stats to throw around. The state of Washington had 281 cases reported with 24 deaths. The sky isn't falling, but there is no vaccine and the county (world) needs to take informed measured steps to mitigate the spread to threatened populations. We don't need panic, but we also don't need minimization and marginalization.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

19 of those were at the Life Care Nursing Home.

(03-11-2020 05:35 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 05:14 PM)2Buck Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 05:06 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 04:08 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  Where was all this hysteria in 2009 with H1N1?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...emic.html:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

All of the metrics thus far indicate that this will be much worse than H1N1 was. CFR for H1N1 was < 0.4% in the US.

We are looking at the potential for millions of US fatalities this time.

According to trackcorona.herokuapp.com which updates hourly, the US has over 1k confirmed cases now, 31 deaths, mortality rate of about 3%. The mortality rate now is grossly inflated because we've have had limited testing of mostly sick people. Some of the experts have stated could very well have/had 10x or more the # of cases, but we don't know because of the limited testing. S Korea (4th highest # of cases) is one country that has done mass testing (I've heard stated in the last week over 100k and over 200k) S Korea reported 7755 cases now, 61 dead, a mortality rate of under .8%.

Germany, with their drive through testing, reported 1524 cases, 2 dead. That's less than pneumonia.
https://news.yahoo.com/german-hospital-c...34506.html
I would take China's and Iran's (3rd highest # of reported cases) #s with a grain of salt. Why is Italy's (2nd highest # of reported cases) mortality rate so much higher than the rest of Europe?

There's epidemiologists who have stated its more contagious than the regular flu, but for under age 50, the effects likely no worse. As already stated on here, its the above 50 and pre existing conditions where the mortality rate starts increasing.

Where have you seen stated a potential for "millions" of US fatalities?

Plenty of anecdotal stats to throw around. The state of Washington had 281 cases reported with 24 deaths. The sky isn't falling, but there is no vaccine and the county (world) needs to take informed measured steps to mitigate the spread to threatened populations. We don't need panic, but we also don't need minimization and marginalization.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

19 of those were at the Life Care Nursing Home.

Yeah, sounds like something that old people really shouldn't be exposed to doesn't it?