3-bid League

(03-10-2020 08:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  3-bid League

Yeah, funny how it's going to turn out that way. And if SMC can take the autobid outright, what it might do for both their seeding and Gonzaga's.

But, I suspect with a game in town on the line, Gonzaga smashes through this one. Would love to be wrong, though!

It’s an underrated rivalry and anything can happen! This league has had 3 bids before but it takes a perfect storm of solid performance at the top and a down year by power conferences. Generally, 2 bids are in the difficult 7-10 seed range with 1 school a 1-4 seed.

To deviate a little, I absolutely do not like the new conference logo. I was not a huge fan of the old one - thought it was too busy. The new one goes too far in a direction I don’t like. The color scheme is fine but the font is horrendous.

it was a lock probably before the tourney that they were getting 3.

Gonzaga probably is the #1 out west regardless of what happens tonight. St Mary's might be playing to be a 6 seed tonight quite frankly.

I wonder if it's possible with Wisconsin and Arizona State winning the B1G and PAC tournaments respectively, there isn't a chance, even if only remote, for a 5. If just because a 3-seed deserves a little better than that kind of 6-seed matchup the first weekend with a body count like that.

Regardless, I think SMC is there with Providence, Colorado, Penn State, LSU, and Florida who could really jump a few lines up with really strong showings in their tournaments.

(03-10-2020 10:07 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wonder if it's possible with Wisconsin and Arizona State winning the B1G and PAC tournaments respectively, there isn't a chance, even if only remote, for a 5. If just because a 3-seed deserves a little better than that kind of 6-seed matchup the first weekend with a body count like that.

Regardless, I think SMC is there with Providence, Colorado, Penn State, LSU, and Florida who could really jump a few lines up with really strong showings in their tournaments.

Look at the current 5's. Ohio St, BYU, Auburn, and Butler. Realistically are any of those better?

(03-10-2020 10:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 10:07 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wonder if it's possible with Wisconsin and Arizona State winning the B1G and PAC tournaments respectively, there isn't a chance, even if only remote, for a 5. If just because a 3-seed deserves a little better than that kind of 6-seed matchup the first weekend with a body count like that.

Regardless, I think SMC is there with Providence, Colorado, Penn State, LSU, and Florida who could really jump a few lines up with really strong showings in their tournaments.

Look at the current 5's. Ohio St, BYU, Auburn, and Butler. Realistically are any of those better?

Help me understand the fascination with BYU. If a sub-.500 Minnesota sitting in your top 50 is one problem with the NET, I think BYU being a top 10 team is another.
All of that SOS weighting into the NET equation is flushed out with these guys. Yes, the schedule is impressive, because Kansas, 2x Gonzaga, SDSU, and Houston should stand up, but the overall wins aren't there.

So, if you're asking me if I think SMC can replace BYU? Considering SMC went 2-1 versus the Cougars, you bet. Colorado and Penn State have fallen hard, and were once sitting on projected 4-lines. I could see a strong finish with conference crowns getting them back up there. And Providence? With that kill count, and the way Butler has fallen apart, absolutely.

(03-10-2020 10:35 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 10:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 10:07 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wonder if it's possible with Wisconsin and Arizona State winning the B1G and PAC tournaments respectively, there isn't a chance, even if only remote, for a 5. If just because a 3-seed deserves a little better than that kind of 6-seed matchup the first weekend with a body count like that.

Regardless, I think SMC is there with Providence, Colorado, Penn State, LSU, and Florida who could really jump a few lines up with really strong showings in their tournaments.

Look at the current 5's. Ohio St, BYU, Auburn, and Butler. Realistically are any of those better?

Help me understand the fascination with BYU. If a sub-.500 Minnesota sitting in your top 50 is one problem with the NET, I think BYU being a top 10 team is another.
All of that SOS weighting into the NET equation is flushed out with these guys. Yes, the schedule is impressive, because Kansas, 2x Gonzaga, SDSU, and Houston should stand up, but the overall wins aren't there.

So, if you're asking me if I think SMC can replace BYU? Considering SMC went 2-1 versus the Cougars, you bet. Colorado and Penn State have fallen hard, and were once sitting on projected 4-lines. I could see a strong finish with conference crowns getting them back up there. And Providence? With that kill count, and the way Butler has fallen apart, absolutely.

Colorado has lost 4 games in a row, the last 3 to teams in the bottom half of the conference, but you think they're going to win 4 straight in the Pac-12 tournament?

(03-10-2020 10:57 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 10:35 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 10:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 10:07 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wonder if it's possible with Wisconsin and Arizona State winning the B1G and PAC tournaments respectively, there isn't a chance, even if only remote, for a 5. If just because a 3-seed deserves a little better than that kind of 6-seed matchup the first weekend with a body count like that.

Regardless, I think SMC is there with Providence, Colorado, Penn State, LSU, and Florida who could really jump a few lines up with really strong showings in their tournaments.

Look at the current 5's. Ohio St, BYU, Auburn, and Butler. Realistically are any of those better?

Help me understand the fascination with BYU. If a sub-.500 Minnesota sitting in your top 50 is one problem with the NET, I think BYU being a top 10 team is another.
All of that SOS weighting into the NET equation is flushed out with these guys. Yes, the schedule is impressive, because Kansas, 2x Gonzaga, SDSU, and Houston should stand up, but the overall wins aren't there.

So, if you're asking me if I think SMC can replace BYU? Considering SMC went 2-1 versus the Cougars, you bet. Colorado and Penn State have fallen hard, and were once sitting on projected 4-lines. I could see a strong finish with conference crowns getting them back up there. And Providence? With that kill count, and the way Butler has fallen apart, absolutely.

Colorado has lost 4 games in a row, the last 3 to teams in the bottom half of the conference, but you think they're going to win 4 straight in the Pac-12 tournament?

Or Penn State for that matter...it's not whether I believe they can (I don't). But, should they do so? Metrically, that's going to propel them upward.

No offense, beyond Oregon, if I don't understand BYU and their metrics, PAC's right behind them. I know the SOS is there, especially with some of those in the non-conference...where are the wins, other than against each other?

The one I do actually believe could really overtake a current 5-seed (beyond SMC should they win tonight) is Providence, with a strong showing. Run the gauntlet of Butler, Creighton, and then Nova/Seton Hall/Marquette? Those are all the right wins.

(03-10-2020 08:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  3-bid League

As somebody who likes some variety to the tournament, I'm pretty pleased with this despite having no connection to any WCC team. I'd like very much if, beyond Gonzaga, they turned into a west coast A10 equivalent or better.

(03-10-2020 11:13 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  3-bid League

As somebody who likes some variety to the tournament, I'm pretty pleased with this despite having no connection to any WCC team. I'd like very much if, beyond Gonzaga, they turned into a west coast A10 equivalent or better.

I'd like to see that as well. The A-10 is in a better geographical and structural situation to be more successful in any given year. I'm very surprised by the lack of national competitiveness in the A-10 this season. My brain usually considers them a 3-bid league.

They didn’t have a terrible non-conference showing. It was better than last year. But, nobody really ran with it in the conference other than Dayton, and the parity at the top didn’t happen.

VCU fell apart. Had they stuck together just a bit better, it probably would have propped up URI and Richmond more solidly, at least.

No shame if Dayton has a top seed. That’s great for the A10. But...you’d rather have what the WCC has, with a top line and two likely favored seeds.

The WCC final should be played on Saturday. not Tuesday. They shouldn't have to play early. You wonder the long layover hurts Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament?

(03-10-2020 12:36 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:13 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  3-bid League

As somebody who likes some variety to the tournament, I'm pretty pleased with this despite having no connection to any WCC team. I'd like very much if, beyond Gonzaga, they turned into a west coast A10 equivalent or better.

I'd like to see that as well. The A-10 is in a better geographical and structural situation to be more successful in any given year. I'm very surprised by the lack of national competitiveness in the A-10 this season. My brain usually considers them a 3-bid league.

Honestly? I'm not so sure about that. With the Mountain West down recently and Gonzaga a reliable anchor program, the WCC is actually in decent position to become solidly the #2 conference in basketball on that side of the continent if the members schools truly committed to it. One could argue that the A10 sharing the same territory occupied by the B1G, Big East, and ACC presents plenty of difficulties in its own right. To say nothing of what happens if the Big East expands again (which I think is unlikely) or the American looks for a basketball add after losing UConn (relatively more likely).

(03-10-2020 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  With the Mountain West down recently and Gonzaga a reliable anchor program, the WCC is actually in decent position to become solidly the #2 conference in basketball on that side of the continent if the members schools truly committed to it.

The bottom 3 of the MWC has been poor in men's hoops the past couple of years; before that it was generally better than the bottom 3 of the WCC. In the same period of time, the middle of the WCC has improved.

(03-10-2020 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:36 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:13 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:45 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  3-bid League

As somebody who likes some variety to the tournament, I'm pretty pleased with this despite having no connection to any WCC team. I'd like very much if, beyond Gonzaga, they turned into a west coast A10 equivalent or better.

I'd like to see that as well. The A-10 is in a better geographical and structural situation to be more successful in any given year. I'm very surprised by the lack of national competitiveness in the A-10 this season. My brain usually considers them a 3-bid league.

Honestly? I'm not so sure about that. With the Mountain West down recently and Gonzaga a reliable anchor program, the WCC is actually in decent position to become solidly the #2 conference in basketball on that side of the continent if the members schools truly committed to it. One could argue that the A10 sharing the same territory occupied by the B1G, Big East, and ACC presents plenty of difficulties in its own right. To say nothing of what happens if the Big East expands again (which I think is unlikely) or the American looks for a basketball add after losing UConn (relatively more likely).

I needed to explain...while they do complete with more power conferences, the metros and areas the A-10 covers produce significantly better recruits year in and year out than the West coast. The A-10 also has public schools and unaffiliated privates (along with denominational privates) which generally draw in a much larger talent pool. While Gonzaga recruits well, especially in the transfer portal, St. Mary’s and BYU occasionally do okay but that’s about it - and the majority of St. Mary’s success is in the last decade. Only a handful of appearances by all the other schools combined in the last couple decades plus.

The WCC does have the advantage of little regional competition which helps quite a bit for 2nd and 3rd+ tier recruits.

Gonzaga blows out St. Mary’s.

Has the committee taken in consideration a tournament team getting blown out for seeding purposes?

(03-10-2020 10:40 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Gonzaga blows out St. Mary’s.

Has the committee taken in consideration a tournament team getting blown out for seeding purposes?

Margin of victory is including in the NET I believe although I believe it's capped at 10 points to prevent teams running up the score. Committee members certainly can do what they want. I doubt a team would be punished for getting blown out by Gonzaga. If they get blown out by a team not in the tournament, that's a different story. If they blow out a team like Gonzaga, that's also a different story (ex. North Carolina State blew out Duke this year).

Saint Mary's was playing themselves out of the 7-10 stew last night with a win. That didn't happen, so, those "death seeds" are where they'll stay. And those sixteen lines are pretty much interchangeable according to the committee, placed with consideration to the top seeds and television. You won't see SMC going out for a fourth match with Gonzaga in Spokane that first weekend, and I suspect they won't line them up for a potential rematch with Dayton, either.