(03-13-2020 01:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (03-13-2020 08:42 AM)arkstfan Wrote: Intercollegiate athletics being self-sustaining is a new thing. If you go back a few decades you find most years the number of self-suffificent programs often was in the single digits even back when head coaches were making less than university presidents and even back when schools sponsored fewer sports because there was no Title IX.
Difference is cost. For example, in 1990, the average Big 10 athletic budget was $9 million, so we can assume that Division I schools that were not in a major conference - "G5" type schools - were spending what, around $5 million? Probably too high but let's just say.
That's about $9 million in today's money. So even if we assume absolutely zero revenue and a "transfer rate" of 100%, that's nothing compared to the $25 million transfer rates by many G5 today. Adjust for student enrollment too if you want, it's still way way more.
So why? I suspect the problem is "ego". That is, circa 1990, schools like Eastern Michigan were satisfied with being what they were, off the map football schools. Today, though, every G5 is a 'striver' trying to build a "big time" program. So that means constantly spending more to not be "left behind", etc.
I think it is a two-fold problem. The 70's are hard to evaluate, started the decade with stagflation and new responsibility of Title IX. The 80's are hard to evaluate because mostly even power schools ended up sideways to behind in media income after OU v NCAA. Took the breakup of CFA and rise of cable to get income rising then it went exponential.
When the cash influx happened, power schools had no idea what to do with it. Unable to spend it on student-athletes and many P5 athletic departments being powerful fiefdoms (see Georgia and Arkansas where chancellors/presidents went up against AD's and lost) the system went off the rails. Coaches and ADs began making more than their titular boss the university president and if successful wielded more power than the president.
Schools seriously have gone bonkers. Eli Drinkwitz, I'd bet my paycheck would have taken the Mizzou job for half what they paid, probably less than that to get closer to home. I like the guy one of the few guys who put in two years at AState during the 5 in 5 years. I KNOW that Hugh Freeze would have gone from AState to his childhood favorite school Ole Miss for half what they paid him.
The irresponsible spending, over-paying just because your fans would be appalled that you spent ONLY $2 million a year on a head coach has caused people to lose their minds.
But I think we are going to get a market correction.
Attendance is down something like six straight years. Come September I think we will see even more empty seats. The public is going to go 60, maybe 90 days with no sports at all. Maybe there is pent-up demand, I suspect more likely people fall out of the habit of thinking so much about sports.
Consensus seems to be we are headed to a deep recession but probably an abnormally short recession for the degree of economic downturn.
Most likely we see an acceleration cord-cutting. You survived three months without sports, hanging on to cable/satellite for ESPN and your local RSN is going to be less of an imperative but saving expenses probably will be more important.
Remember the national championship game was up 4% in viewership this year and even then, out of every 1000 homes with a television, only 143 were tuned in. Out of all of bowl season, only six games drew 5% or more of TV homes. Only three conference title games hit that and all were on OTA broadcasts.
Unless a direct-to-consumer model is embraced by consumers at price point to keep demand there it will be hard to stop the revenue declines from carriage fee losses. Sports fans are a hardcore bunch but a small segment.
Recession means state tax collections will fall and the budget knife almost always starts at higher ed. We are short of people age 12-18 vs the past decade or so, that means college enrollment is likely to decline so fee and transfer income is likely to fall.
The NCAA very likely will cut it's distribution because they've spent most of the reserve fund to bail the power five schools out of student-athlete litigation related to full cost of attendance, name and likeness, and concussions.
Ohio State and Alabama probably won't notice the cut. Alabama A&M and Cleveland State probably will notice the cut.
In the ESPN+ era the difference between being in the MEAC or Summit in Division I vs being in the SIAC or MIAA in Division II isn't that dramatic when it comes to exposure. The primary difference is whether or not your conference tournament title game is on ESPN/ESPN2 or on ESPN+ and then getting a school in the league on the office betting pool when people fill out brackets and most times you get one game, often low viewership game in Dayton but regular season telecasts are about the same.