(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Overall you are probably right. But the games are not all bad losses.
Tulsa is a Q2 loss. Point spread has never really mattered a whole lot to the committee.
The SMU road loss is Q2.
UConn was a Q1 loss.
Our Q1/Q2 record is at the top of the bubble teams (see above post). So these 3 losses are really not damaging. It's the other 3.

(03-10-2020 09:56 AM)mccarverslawyer Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:00 AM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

Indiana and Xavier are Last In bubble teams. Indiana has no Quad 3 or 4 bad losses and Xavier has one at an ACC team.

Win out

Have a good day

They also have Q1/Q2 records less than .500, and NET rankings of 59 & 45. We are above .500 with a NET of 58.

Win out would help, but we are not out of it yet

You too

Signed,
Elliottsfinancialadvisor

(03-10-2020 11:46 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 09:56 AM)mccarverslawyer Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:00 AM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

Indiana and Xavier are Last In bubble teams. Indiana has no Quad 3 or 4 bad losses and Xavier has one at an ACC team.

Win out

Have a good day

They also have Q1/Q2 records less than .500, and NET rankings of 59 & 45. We are above .500 with a NET of 58.

Win out would help, but we are not out of it yet

You too

Signed,
Elliottsfinancialadvisor

RIGHT?! I don't get how these teams are constantly above us in projected brackets.

(03-10-2020 11:46 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 09:56 AM)mccarverslawyer Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:00 AM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

Indiana and Xavier are Last In bubble teams. Indiana has no Quad 3 or 4 bad losses and Xavier has one at an ACC team.

Win out

Have a good day

They also have Q1/Q2 records less than .500, and NET rankings of 59 & 45. We are above .500 with a NET of 58.

Win out would help, but we are not out of it yet

You too

Signed,
Elliottsfinancialadvisor

People take notice

Signed
An MLI shareholder

(03-10-2020 11:51 AM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:46 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 09:56 AM)mccarverslawyer Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:00 AM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

Indiana and Xavier are Last In bubble teams. Indiana has no Quad 3 or 4 bad losses and Xavier has one at an ACC team.

Win out

Have a good day

They also have Q1/Q2 records less than .500, and NET rankings of 59 & 45. We are above .500 with a NET of 58.

Win out would help, but we are not out of it yet

You too

Signed,
Elliottsfinancialadvisor

RIGHT?! I don't get how these teams are constantly above us in projected brackets.

Perceptions and projections from there. We were supposed to be a top 10 team and possible title contender. We are nowhere near that now. And I get why we are not and most of our fans do as well and I certainly do not want to turn this into a thread about how the team has played or how Penny has coached.

But lots of people are looking at what they thought we would be and where we are today without any context. Basically, they are just looking at our record and hearing that this season was disappointing without taking the time to look at the specifics of what actually occurred. IMO, that is large reason why we are not seeming to get the benefit of the doubt in some cases.

(03-10-2020 12:08 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:51 AM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:46 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 09:56 AM)mccarverslawyer Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:00 AM)Fluke Wrote:  Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

Indiana and Xavier are Last In bubble teams. Indiana has no Quad 3 or 4 bad losses and Xavier has one at an ACC team.

Win out

Have a good day

They also have Q1/Q2 records less than .500, and NET rankings of 59 & 45. We are above .500 with a NET of 58.

Win out would help, but we are not out of it yet

You too

Signed,
Elliottsfinancialadvisor

RIGHT?! I don't get how these teams are constantly above us in projected brackets.

Perceptions and projections from there. We were supposed to be a top 10 team and possible title contender. We are nowhere near that now. And I get why we are not and most of our fans do as well and I certainly do not want to turn this into a thread about how the team has played or how Penny has coached.

But lots of people are looking at what they thought we would be and where we are today without any context. Basically, they are just looking at our record and hearing that this season was disappointing without taking the time to look at the specifics of what actually occurred. IMO, that is large reason why we are not seeming to get the benefit of the doubt in some cases.

Yeah, and we know the clowns that write sports columns and vote on polls don't love us. Hopefully the committee gives us a fair shake. Sunday will have me eager to see what happens, that's for sure!

I just wanna knock a bubble team clean outta the bubble...does that make me a bad person?

lol

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:26 AM)Fluke Wrote:  What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:26 AM)Fluke Wrote:  What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Yep. It is the bad losses keeping us out.

(03-10-2020 02:40 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  I just wanna knock a bubble team clean outta the bubble...does that make me a bad person?

lol

I'll drink to that!

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:26 AM)Fluke Wrote:  What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:26 AM)Fluke Wrote:  What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

(03-10-2020 03:47 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:26 AM)Fluke Wrote:  What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

Prob true. So how does the committee view us vs NC State? NC State higher? Or us higher? The bracket "experts" seem to all have NC State ahead of us. As we know, we beat NC State on a neutral floor. We don't know if we want NC State to lose so we can move past them or if we want NC State to win and improve their NET so that in turn our resume improves. Crazy.

(03-10-2020 03:52 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:47 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

Prob true. So how does the committee view us vs NC State? NC State higher? Or us higher? The bracket "experts" seem to all have NC State ahead of us. As we know, we beat NC State on a neutral floor. We don't know if we want NC State to lose so we can move past them or if we want NC State to win and improve their NET so that in turn our resume improves. Crazy.

NC State is definitely viewed higher. Their resume is better. They have 3 wins against top 20 teams.

(03-10-2020 03:52 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:47 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 11:31 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.

I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

Prob true. So how does the committee view us vs NC State? NC State higher? Or us higher? The bracket "experts" seem to all have NC State ahead of us. As we know, we beat NC State on a neutral floor. We don't know if we want NC State to lose so we can move past them or if we want NC State to win and improve their NET so that in turn our resume improves. Crazy.

Simple argument is DJ. Jeffries.

(03-10-2020 07:40 AM)gusrob Wrote:  Good to see these guys win their conference tourney:
ETSU
Utah St beat SDSU but Utah St was already NET 40
Gonzaga vs St Marys (NET 30) in WCC Finals


We don't want 2 schools coming from smaller conferences. Some small schools have bubble or better resumes so we need them to take their conference's auto bid too. Put on your gear and pull for Colgate and Dayton:
Colgate - Patriot League - #1 seed plays Boston U in Championship 3/11
Dayton - A10 - #1 seed in Quarterfinals March 13 - We need Rhode Island and Richmond to go down


Prob not a factor, but doesn't hurt to pull for these as well:
Liberty (30-4) - Atlantic Sun - May not be a factor with (NET 68), but remove all doubt!
Yale - NET 70
Akron - NET 74
Vermont - American East - (NET 78) also prob not a factor -#1 seed in semis today vs UMBC
Stephen F Austin - Southland - (25-3) NET 77 - ESPN show about the bubble said this team would make the tourney regardless. HOPE THEY'RE WRONG!!

Teams we want to lose (early) in conference tourney:
NC St - NET 53
Notre Dame - NET 56
Syracuse - NET 64
Oklahoma - NET 46
Ok St - NET 61
Texas - NET 69
Xavier - NET 45
Georgetown - NET 62
St Johns - NET 68
Indiana - NET 59
Washington - NET 55
Oregon St - NET 71
UCLA - NET 76 - I don't get why they are in the bubble convo.
Miss St - NET 50
Alabama (16-15) - NET 54
Tenn - NET 63
South Carolina - NET 67


Bubble busters:
UNI (NET 48) lost their 1st game of conf tourney. Bradley won tourney (NET 102).

This is great data and analysis, thanks!

(03-10-2020 04:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:52 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:47 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

Prob true. So how does the committee view us vs NC State? NC State higher? Or us higher? The bracket "experts" seem to all have NC State ahead of us. As we know, we beat NC State on a neutral floor. We don't know if we want NC State to lose so we can move past them or if we want NC State to win and improve their NET so that in turn our resume improves. Crazy.

Simple argument is DJ. Jeffries.

Good point.

DJJ changes our appearance to committee. If he was returning we'd be more respected. Our team suiting up would be better. And if he played all season we'd have those 2 additional wins. SMU x 2, UConn, UGA, USF.......all close, tough losses without him.

Hell I guess we have to see if any other conference tournies get cancelled.

(03-10-2020 04:25 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 04:16 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:52 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:47 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

Prob true. So how does the committee view us vs NC State? NC State higher? Or us higher? The bracket "experts" seem to all have NC State ahead of us. As we know, we beat NC State on a neutral floor. We don't know if we want NC State to lose so we can move past them or if we want NC State to win and improve their NET so that in turn our resume improves. Crazy.

Simple argument is DJ. Jeffries.

Good point.

DJJ changes our appearance to committee. If he was returning we'd be more respected. Our team suiting up would be better. And if he played all season we'd have those 2 additional wins. SMU x 2, UConn, UGA, USF.......all close, tough losses without him.

Yup...If he would have come back today we could discount a few of those losses and have a better argument even though our numbers are not where they need to be.

(03-10-2020 04:01 PM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:52 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:47 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:46 PM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 03:18 PM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  I really believe had we won the Georgia and USF games we would be in.

Agree!

Any 2 games...

Doesn't matter which games we flip. If we win 2 more games we are in.

Prob true. So how does the committee view us vs NC State? NC State higher? Or us higher? The bracket "experts" seem to all have NC State ahead of us. As we know, we beat NC State on a neutral floor. We don't know if we want NC State to lose so we can move past them or if we want NC State to win and improve their NET so that in turn our resume improves. Crazy.

NC State is definitely viewed higher. Their resume is better. They have 3 wins against top 20 teams.

Not definitely.
Q1 wins: NCSU 4; Memphis 2. Advantage NCSU
Q1/Q2 record: NCSU 8-10; Memphis 8-7. Advantage Memphis
Bad (Q3/Q4 ) losses: NCSU 2; Memphis 3. Slight advantage NCSU
Computer rankings range (KenPom, Sagarin, NET): NCSU 45-53; Memphis 47-58. Slight advantage NCSU

They have the edge today, but you can see it's slight. We need them to lose early. We could overtake them.