(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

We (the team) better concentrate on ECU & take it one at a time thereafter. As most of us have said we are capable of beating anyone in the AAC. GTG!

Good to see these guys win their conference tourney:
ETSU
Utah St beat SDSU but Utah St was already NET 40
Gonzaga vs St Marys (NET 30) in WCC Finals


We don't want 2 schools coming from smaller conferences. Some small schools have bubble or better resumes so we need them to take their conference's auto bid too. Put on your gear and pull for Colgate and Dayton:
Colgate - Patriot League - #1 seed plays Boston U in Championship 3/11
Dayton - A10 - #1 seed in Quarterfinals March 13 - We need Rhode Island and Richmond to go down


Prob not a factor, but doesn't hurt to pull for these as well:
Liberty (30-4) - Atlantic Sun - May not be a factor with (NET 68), but remove all doubt!
Yale - NET 70
Akron - NET 74
Vermont - American East - (NET 78) also prob not a factor -#1 seed in semis today vs UMBC
Stephen F Austin - Southland - (25-3) NET 77 - ESPN show about the bubble said this team would make the tourney regardless. HOPE THEY'RE WRONG!!

Teams we want to lose (early) in conference tourney:
NC St - NET 53
Notre Dame - NET 56
Syracuse - NET 64
Oklahoma - NET 46
Ok St - NET 61
Texas - NET 69
Xavier - NET 45
Georgetown - NET 62
St Johns - NET 68
Indiana - NET 59
Washington - NET 55
Oregon St - NET 71
UCLA - NET 76 - I don't get why they are in the bubble convo.
Miss St - NET 50
Alabama (16-15) - NET 54
Tenn - NET 63
South Carolina - NET 67


Bubble busters:
UNI (NET 48) lost their 1st game of conf tourney. Bradley won tourney (NET 102).

(03-10-2020 07:40 AM)gusrob Wrote:  Good to see these guys win their conference tourney:
ETSU
Utah St beat SDSU but Utah St was already NET 40
Gonzaga vs St Marys (NET 30) in WCC Finals


We don't want 2 schools coming from smaller conferences. Some small schools have bubble or better resumes so we need them to take their conference's auto bid too. Put on your gear and pull for Colgate and Dayton:
Colgate - Patriot League - #1 seed plays Boston U in Championship 3/11
Dayton - A10 - #1 seed in Quarterfinals March 13 - We need Rhode Island and Richmond to go down


Prob not a factor, but doesn't hurt to pull for these as well:
Liberty (30-4) - Atlantic Sun - May not be a factor with (NET 68), but remove all doubt!
Yale - NET 70
Akron - NET 74
Vermont - American East - (NET 78) also prob not a factor -#1 seed in semis today vs UMBC
Stephen F Austin - Southland - (25-3) NET 77 - ESPN show about the bubble said this team would make the tourney regardless. HOPE THEY'RE WRONG!!

Teams we want to lose (early) in conference tourney:
NC St - NET 53
Notre Dame - NET 56
Syracuse - NET 64
Oklahoma - NET 46
Ok St - NET 61
Texas - NET 69
Xavier - NET 45
Georgetown - NET 62
St Johns - NET 68
Indiana - NET 59
Washington - NET 55
Oregon St - NET 71
UCLA - NET 76 - I don't get why they are in the bubble convo.
Miss St - NET 50
Alabama (16-15) - NET 54
Tenn - NET 63
South Carolina - NET 67


Bubble busters:
UNI (NET 48) lost their 1st game of conf tourney. Bradley won tourney (NET 102).

Thoughtful work. Thank you.

(03-10-2020 07:40 AM)gusrob Wrote:  Good to see these guys win their conference tourney:
ETSU
Utah St beat SDSU but Utah St was already NET 40
Gonzaga vs St Marys (NET 30) in WCC Finals


We don't want 2 schools coming from smaller conferences. Some small schools have bubble or better resumes so we need them to take their conference's auto bid too. Put on your gear and pull for Colgate and Dayton:
Colgate - Patriot League - #1 seed plays Boston U in Championship 3/11
Dayton - A10 - #1 seed in Quarterfinals March 13 - We need Rhode Island and Richmond to go down


Prob not a factor, but doesn't hurt to pull for these as well:
Liberty (30-4) - Atlantic Sun - May not be a factor with (NET 68), but remove all doubt!
Yale - NET 70
Akron - NET 74
Vermont - American East - (NET 78) also prob not a factor -#1 seed in semis today vs UMBC
Stephen F Austin - Southland - (25-3) NET 77 - ESPN show about the bubble said this team would make the tourney regardless. HOPE THEY'RE WRONG!!

Teams we want to lose (early) in conference tourney:
NC St - NET 53
Notre Dame - NET 56
Syracuse - NET 64
Oklahoma - NET 46
Ok St - NET 61
Texas - NET 69
Xavier - NET 45
Georgetown - NET 62
St Johns - NET 68
Indiana - NET 59
Washington - NET 55
Oregon St - NET 71
UCLA - NET 76 - I don't get why they are in the bubble convo.
Miss St - NET 50
Alabama (16-15) - NET 54
Tenn - NET 63
South Carolina - NET 67


Bubble busters:
UNI (NET 48) lost their 1st game of conf tourney. Bradley won tourney (NET 102).

Colgate isn't getting in unless they win their tourney. So there is really no cheering interest in that game unless you just want to see Colgate in the tournament.

I also doubt UNI is getting in.

With those things said Memphis has to win the conference tourney to get in.

What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

We are still first 4 out or next 4 out in most brackets. So one day at a time.

Today's docket of games does not have any bubble impact. So cheer for whomever you like.

(03-10-2020 08:16 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:40 AM)gusrob Wrote:  Good to see these guys win their conference tourney:
ETSU
Utah St beat SDSU but Utah St was already NET 40
Gonzaga vs St Marys (NET 30) in WCC Finals


We don't want 2 schools coming from smaller conferences. Some small schools have bubble or better resumes so we need them to take their conference's auto bid too. Put on your gear and pull for Colgate and Dayton:
Colgate - Patriot League - #1 seed plays Boston U in Championship 3/11
Dayton - A10 - #1 seed in Quarterfinals March 13 - We need Rhode Island and Richmond to go down


Prob not a factor, but doesn't hurt to pull for these as well:
Liberty (30-4) - Atlantic Sun - May not be a factor with (NET 68), but remove all doubt!
Yale - NET 70
Akron - NET 74
Vermont - American East - (NET 78) also prob not a factor -#1 seed in semis today vs UMBC
Stephen F Austin - Southland - (25-3) NET 77 - ESPN show about the bubble said this team would make the tourney regardless. HOPE THEY'RE WRONG!!

Teams we want to lose (early) in conference tourney:
NC St - NET 53
Notre Dame - NET 56
Syracuse - NET 64
Oklahoma - NET 46
Ok St - NET 61
Texas - NET 69
Xavier - NET 45
Georgetown - NET 62
St Johns - NET 68
Indiana - NET 59
Washington - NET 55
Oregon St - NET 71
UCLA - NET 76 - I don't get why they are in the bubble convo.
Miss St - NET 50
Alabama (16-15) - NET 54
Tenn - NET 63
South Carolina - NET 67


Bubble busters:
UNI (NET 48) lost their 1st game of conf tourney. Bradley won tourney (NET 102).

Colgate isn't getting in unless they win their tourney. So there is really no cheering interest in that game unless you just want to see Colgate in the tournament.

I also doubt UNI is getting in.

With those things said Memphis has to win the conference tourney to get in.

You're right on Colgate. For some reason I had them as higher than 115 NET. my bad. Good ole MTO is always there to knock ya down when you make an error.

UNI (23-6) has NET ranking 48. Biggest wins over South Carolina (NET 67), Colorado (NET 23), Bradley (in tourney). Not the strongest resume. I see why you have your opinion. I suppose we'll see how serious the committee is about using NET rankings.

Quick collection of info/thoughts. Sorry for errors.

GTG

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Right

But that is WHY we are in the bubble

Built in to the soup

Still feel like UConn or Wichita State, should they beat us in the final, get the bid instead of us. Because we will be one of the last at larges if we are able to string three wins together

Should we win the tourney, we will probably be a 12 or 10 seed because the Dayton games are reserved for the last at large teams, the Dayton 16 seed games for the last auto bids

(03-10-2020 07:00 AM)Fluke Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Not arguing about the losses and but I think most of the bubble teams have plenty of wtf losses by large margins also.

Indiana and Xavier are Last In bubble teams. Indiana has no Quad 3 or 4 bad losses and Xavier has one at an ACC team.

Win out

Have a good day

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

The three home losses is what hurt us. Minus those we are in.

Georgia
South Florida
SMU

(03-10-2020 09:52 AM)Mimi Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 12:34 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:59 PM)Mimi Wrote:  I think the only chance to get an at large bid would be to play Cincy in the final

Because they are a lock of them make the final

UConn or Wichita State would take our potential bid

Making the final puts us ahead of both UConn and WSU, solid wins over Tulsa and Houston help a lot and ending 24-11 with wins over

NC State
Cincy
Houston
Houston
Wichita State
UConn
Tulsa
Tennessee

Is not bad

Absent too many upsets we could get a bid

Our problem is losses

Georgia 15-16
Tulsa by 40
South Florida 14-17
SMU twice
UCONN

You can argue that SMU and UCONN are not "bad losses" but they are not looked at as quality teams and a 40 point loss is not acceptable no matter who you are playing. I think our losses keep us out more than our lack of quality wins.

Right

But that is WHY we are in the bubble

Built in to the soup

Still feel like UConn or Wichita State, should they beat us in the final, get the bid instead of us. Because we will be one of the last at larges if we are able to string three wins together

Should we win the tourney, we will probably be a 12 or 10 seed because the Dayton games are reserved for the last at large teams, the Dayton 16 seed games for the last auto bids

Certainly one of those times I would gladly take being wrong.

Interesting: Ivy League closes basketball conference tournaments due to corona-19 virus. Yale gets the men's auto-bid.

Make the AAC title game at least and hope Texas, NC St, Indiana, Cincy, Ucla, Rhode Island, Xavier, Marquette, Miss State all lose early on. Pretty simple.

We are not going to get an at-large bid. Period.

(03-09-2020 04:55 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 04:50 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Most have given up, but I still think a run to the AAC finals might be enough to get us in.

So for bubble-watch today, we need:

ETSU to win the championship tonight over Wofford.
Gonzaga to beat San Fran in the semis.

I would love for you to be right but I think we just have too many bad losses to get in without winning the AAC championship.

Now, I also think we have the talent to get hot for a few days and run through our conference. We also have the ability to lose by 20 in the first round, so...

If we finish with 24 total wins and 13 AAC wins, and do NOT make the NCAA, then we will be the first team in conference history to do so. It could happen with this wacky year, but I still have some faith.

We are still on the bubble with 3 bad losses. What is helping us is that we have a good Q1 and Q2 record to offset the bad losses.

I am tracking 22 teams identified as "bubble" from various sources. There are only 5 teams with as many "bad" losses as we have. At the same time, there are only 2 teams with a "good" win percentage as high as ours.

I have a composite ranking using KenPom, Sagarin, and Net. We are 14 out of the 22 teams. Purdue with a 16-15 record has the highest composite for some strange reason. They are 9-14 in Q1/Q2, and also have one bad loss. But their computer ranking composite is #27. Most bracketologists have them out of the tourney FWIW. It's a clear case where the gurus disagree with the computers.

(03-10-2020 08:51 AM)gusrob Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 08:16 AM)tigers0830 Wrote:  

(03-10-2020 07:40 AM)gusrob Wrote:  Good to see these guys win their conference tourney:
ETSU
Utah St beat SDSU but Utah St was already NET 40
Gonzaga vs St Marys (NET 30) in WCC Finals


We don't want 2 schools coming from smaller conferences. Some small schools have bubble or better resumes so we need them to take their conference's auto bid too. Put on your gear and pull for Colgate and Dayton:
Colgate - Patriot League - #1 seed plays Boston U in Championship 3/11
Dayton - A10 - #1 seed in Quarterfinals March 13 - We need Rhode Island and Richmond to go down


Prob not a factor, but doesn't hurt to pull for these as well:
Liberty (30-4) - Atlantic Sun - May not be a factor with (NET 68), but remove all doubt!
Yale - NET 70
Akron - NET 74
Vermont - American East - (NET 78) also prob not a factor -#1 seed in semis today vs UMBC
Stephen F Austin - Southland - (25-3) NET 77 - ESPN show about the bubble said this team would make the tourney regardless. HOPE THEY'RE WRONG!!

Teams we want to lose (early) in conference tourney:
NC St - NET 53
Notre Dame - NET 56
Syracuse - NET 64
Oklahoma - NET 46
Ok St - NET 61
Texas - NET 69
Xavier - NET 45
Georgetown - NET 62
St Johns - NET 68
Indiana - NET 59
Washington - NET 55
Oregon St - NET 71
UCLA - NET 76 - I don't get why they are in the bubble convo.
Miss St - NET 50
Alabama (16-15) - NET 54
Tenn - NET 63
South Carolina - NET 67


Bubble busters:
UNI (NET 48) lost their 1st game of conf tourney. Bradley won tourney (NET 102).

Colgate isn't getting in unless they win their tourney. So there is really no cheering interest in that game unless you just want to see Colgate in the tournament.

I also doubt UNI is getting in.

With those things said Memphis has to win the conference tourney to get in.

You're right on Colgate. For some reason I had them as higher than 115 NET. my bad. Good ole MTO is always there to knock ya down when you make an error.

UNI (23-6) has NET ranking 48. Biggest wins over South Carolina (NET 67), Colorado (NET 23), Bradley (in tourney). Not the strongest resume. I see why you have your opinion. I suppose we'll see how serious the committee is about using NET rankings.

Quick collection of info/thoughts. Sorry for errors.

GTG

Oh I agree that UNI has some good wins, but their SOS is 116 (112 Non-Conf). They have 1 Q1 win and 3 Q2 wins. That's going to be hard to overcome.

I wouldn't be surprised if they get in, but I do think it's a long shot for them at this point.

(03-10-2020 11:22 AM)oruvoice2 Wrote:  We are not going to get an at-large bid. Period.

I would say it's unlikely, but we are not definitely out of the discussion.

(03-10-2020 08:26 AM)Fluke Wrote:  What is the cutoff for a q1 win neutral site? 50? If so NC state could push into that spot for us.

The cutoff is 50 for neutral. NCSU is currently at 53, so one good ACC win could push them back to Q1. Tulsa is also on the verge of being a Q1 road loss. The threshold is 75, and they are currently 79. But since we have to play them in round 2, I'm not sure they can help us.

It is the 3 bad losses that are hurting us. We probably have enough good wins. And unfortunately, none of the 3 losses are close enough to move into Q2.