(03-05-2020 04:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.

XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money

You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.

UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.

The ACC should think about doubling down in Florida by taking in UCF/USF to fill in the footprint they have in the sunshine state.

Also to prevent the XII from getting one of both of them. FAU/FIU would still be available for poaching but I doubt they would be worthy of serious consideration for a P5 conference anytime soon.

(03-06-2020 07:17 AM)Capt Ed Wrote:  App State and its Sun Belt conference mates are happy where we are. We're moving up in the conference football rankings, we only share revenue ten ways, and our travel costs are acceptable. Plus, I believe there is a lot of respect and even a kinship spirit between schools.

We only see two future opportunities that make sense.

1. We attract two schools from C-USA, Marshall and Southern Miss. and stop.
2. The long predicted mass regional realignment happens.

It would take P5 driven gap filling to do it but if it were to happen and CUSA/SBC were looking at a few losses CUSA could be motivated to finish off the SBC so there is less mouths to feed at the CFP negotiating table.

The WAC was swallowed whole by the MWC. It didn't have to be that way if the MWC reloaded with UTEP/Rice and didn't absorb all the WAC schools except Idaho, NMSU and TXST/UTSA which they let go to the SBC/CUSA respectively. They could have left enough WAC schools behind to rebuild the conference.

The SBC was able to rebuild after realignment in part for having so many FBS ready schools available in their footprint. Will that be the same case next time around? I wouldn't make that assumption.

(03-05-2020 08:21 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  MAC does not need more teams. Drop it


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The MAC wouldn't take back Marshall if they wanted in? Appalachian State would be a geographical challenge but they'd be a good football program (not sure they improve from a market perspective).

If Cincinnati wants in, I guarantee the MAC would take them in a second.

OK, let's assume Texas and Oklahoma leave for a better conference and leave the Little Eight behind. Go.

(03-06-2020 08:04 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 08:21 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  MAC does not need more teams. Drop it


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The MAC wouldn't take back Marshall if they wanted in? Appalachian State would be a geographical challenge but they'd be a good football program (not sure they improve from a market perspective).

If Cincinnati wants in, I guarantee the MAC would take them in a second.

GTFOH with that mess. Cincinnati will eventually move up, not down. We are one of the best brands not in a P5 and have a lot of other factors that put us at the top of the pecking order with a couple other schools.

(03-06-2020 08:05 AM)schmolik Wrote:  OK, let's assume Texas and Oklahoma leave for a better conference and leave the Little Eight behind. Go.

Little eight or even little four would still be an autonomy conference.

There are some on here think we are headed to a P4 with four autonomy conferences or a P6 with six autonomy conferences. Neither situation is going to happen.

(03-06-2020 08:11 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-06-2020 08:05 AM)schmolik Wrote:  OK, let's assume Texas and Oklahoma leave for a better conference and leave the Little Eight behind. Go.

Little eight or even little four would still be an autonomy conference.

They might be an autonomy conference for legal reasons, and a CFP conference until 2025 as well, but if Texas and OK leave the Big 12, the Big 12 will no longer be a "Power" conference when the new CFP deal is bargained for in 2025, they would be relegated to "G" status like the Big East was when the BCS was converted to the CFP. No way the other "Ps" would give them an equal share of the CFP revenue, and no way would a major bowl sign a contract with them.

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.

XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)
MAC (Marshall, App St)
CUSA (Georgia St, Georgia So, Troy, Louisiana, Ark State, TX State)

This would leave the AAC at 12, MAC at 14 and CUSA at 16. It totally eliminates the SBC as a viable conference, reducing it the G5 to a G4.

Then the 5-2-1 then has a G4 spot and a 4 way revenue split.

People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.

I see what you are doing with dropping the 5 sunbelt teams but I don’t see any sunbelt teams leaving for C-USA, if anything would happen I could see a new conference being formed between the two existing conferences.

(03-06-2020 08:10 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-06-2020 08:04 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 08:21 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  MAC does not need more teams. Drop it


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The MAC wouldn't take back Marshall if they wanted in? Appalachian State would be a geographical challenge but they'd be a good football program (not sure they improve from a market perspective).

If Cincinnati wants in, I guarantee the MAC would take them in a second.

GTFOH with that mess. Cincinnati will eventually move up, not down. We are one of the best brands not in a P5 and have a lot of other factors that put us at the top of the pecking order with a couple other schools.

Cincy is unlikely to move up or down in the forseeable future. You are one of the best brands not in the P5, but that's like having one of the longest bananas under four inches, nobody is going to be impressed when you pull it out of your lunch bag.

Bottom line is, no P5 is going to voluntarily promote any G5 teams to their ranks. The only way it can happen is if one P5 raids another P5, and the remaining P5 is in dire need of warm bodies to stay afloat, like the Big 12 was after the multiple raids in 2010 - 2011. And i mean *dire* need, like the conference doesn't have enough members to continue without new members. And even then, it very well could be a situation like when UCF, Houston, Memphis, ECU and Tulane joined the Big East - you join a "P" conference just as it loses its "P" status.

Sure, anything can happen, but the odds that a Cincy or a USF is going to be in a "P" conference in the next 10 years are very dim.

(03-05-2020 05:53 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 05:09 PM)whittx Wrote:  Army wouldn't come into the American as an all sports entry and FAU has more upside than ODU.

Took me way to long to realize you were talking about this from the OP

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)

Yes, I agree. Army is content with indy status, if UCF leaves the AAC there's a good chance we're replaced with another Florida program and currently FAU > FIU.

I am obviously biased but I disagree that either F_U has more upside than ODU. ODU still has better fan support in both football and basketball (season ticket sales and donations) despite not having FBS football success yet. ODU also has 0 FBS or major league competitors in the area. Closest team is ECU, 2 hours away in NC. Besides being located in the state of Florida, what upside do they bring?

(03-06-2020 02:45 PM)odu09 Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 05:53 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 05:09 PM)whittx Wrote:  Army wouldn't come into the American as an all sports entry and FAU has more upside than ODU.

Took me way to long to realize you were talking about this from the OP

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)

Yes, I agree. Army is content with indy status, if UCF leaves the AAC there's a good chance we're replaced with another Florida program and currently FAU > FIU.

I am obviously biased but I disagree that either F_U has more upside than ODU. ODU still has better fan support in both football and basketball (season ticket sales and donations) despite not having FBS football success yet. ODU also has 0 FBS or major league competitors in the area. Closest team is ECU, 2 hours away in NC. Besides being located in the state of Florida, what upside do they bring?

Tidewater area is the largest market in the area with nothing pro in it.

FAU/FIU have a large market but they sit behind the Hurricanes and Dolphins in it.

The Canes aren't even that good anymore which puts downward pressure on FAU/FIU.

(03-06-2020 08:25 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.

XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money
AAC (Rice, UAB, Army, ODU)
MAC (Marshall, App St)
CUSA (Georgia St, Georgia So, Troy, Louisiana, Ark State, TX State)

This would leave the AAC at 12, MAC at 14 and CUSA at 16. It totally eliminates the SBC as a viable conference, reducing it the G5 to a G4.

Then the 5-2-1 then has a G4 spot and a 4 way revenue split.

People are forgetting CUSA could swallow the SBC if they have enough openings. Fine with 14 they may do 16 or 18 to suck all the value out.

I see what you are doing with dropping the 5 sunbelt teams but I don’t see any sunbelt teams leaving for C-USA, if anything would happen I could see a new conference being formed between the two existing conferences.

That gets into political issues having to setup a new conference which nobody wants to bother with.

One difference I see in this day and age is that having a good FB team is going to be more important in the discussion than market size. Troy I think for this reason has a much better chance now at CUSA than what they did in the past.

But of course something like this is a non-starter unless their is a P5 driven realignment with G5 backfill. A lot of if's and but's.

(03-05-2020 08:21 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  MAC does not need more teams. Drop it

That would be my personal preference but what I'm throwing out is an example if there was a master plan whereby the MAC and CUSA got together in a smoke filled room and found a way to carve up the the SBC.

ULM for obvious reasons. Coastal and USA for lack of football tradition are the names I think would have to be sidelined. They wouldn't have enough strength to get back off the proverbial mat and rebuild so they join the independent category along with NMSU, Liberty and UMass.

(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)Mestophalies Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 12:15 PM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  I’ll have the Mem, Cincy special to the B12

Throw Houston +1 (BYU is ideal but would be blocked) to the PAC to get some central time zone games and Texas market.

Don’t care about the rest....

More likely: B12 poaches Arizona twins, AAC moves to more of a mid-tier status with a guaranteed contract bowl.

The Big XII will not be admitting Houston sorry. Not unless they lose a Texas school first.

I just loooovvvveeeee all the Big XII expansion threads. It's far more likely that the Big XII inplodes then it is that they will expand. I dought either will happen this go round.

I agree...which is why I said UH to the PAC...though that’s as likely as the B12 which is to say, not very

(03-05-2020 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 04:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.

XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money

You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.

UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.

UCF and Cincy bring no value, they would both cost the Big 12 schools lots of money. That's not a shot at them, my USF would also cost the Big 12 lots of money.

There are no G5 schools that are worth anywhere near the $35 million a year in value-added needed to make them worth adding. So the only way any G5 schools will get promoted is if a P5 league is raided such that it must add warm bodies or perish.

Having Ohio and Florida for recruiting adds a bunch!

(03-07-2020 10:17 AM)martini7777 Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 07:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 04:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 12:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 11:54 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Have a few ideas here of what could be done before the next CFP contract.

XII (Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF)-more markets/more money

You realize those four would bring zero new money to the Big 12, they would just be more mouths to feed, right? The Big 12 has.

UCF & Cincinnati would bring a lot of value. Houston wont get a look bc of how many Texas schools they already have and Memphis wont bc of academics. IMO UCF & Cincy are the Big 12's best available adds with UCF & USF right behind that if they want to go all in on a Florida foothold.

UCF and Cincy bring no value, they would both cost the Big 12 schools lots of money. That's not a shot at them, my USF would also cost the Big 12 lots of money.

There are no G5 schools that are worth anywhere near the $35 million a year in value-added needed to make them worth adding. So the only way any G5 schools will get promoted is if a P5 league is raided such that it must add warm bodies or perish.

Having Ohio and Florida for recruiting adds a bunch!

"Adds a bunch" in what sense? $40 million dollars a year's worth? You think that Texas Tech is going to add 4* recruits from Florida over Auburn and Florida because they play a game once every two years in Orlando or Tampa?

That's pretty funny eh?