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Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 09:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 07:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Missouri is free to leave if they wish but it won't happen and for another reason.

Would anyone in the SEC mind if Missouri left? I don't think so.

I also don't think anyone in the SEC minds having them either. Nobody is clamoring to get them to leave, they are just a "blah" addition to the conference. Indifference reigns.

It doesn’t matter because the SEC is so far ahead of the game, but I would venture even the SEC itself secretly thinks it botched the Mizzou expansion and wishes it would’ve added Clemson or FSU and not succumbed to the no-2nd-school-in-1-state politics.
03-28-2020 12:36 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 12:36 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 09:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 07:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Missouri is free to leave if they wish but it won't happen and for another reason.

Would anyone in the SEC mind if Missouri left? I don't think so.

I also don't think anyone in the SEC minds having them either. Nobody is clamoring to get them to leave, they are just a "blah" addition to the conference. Indifference reigns.

It doesn’t matter because the SEC is so far ahead of the game, but I would venture even the SEC itself secretly thinks it botched the Mizzou expansion and wishes it would’ve added Clemson or FSU and not succumbed to the no-2nd-school-in-1-state politics.

There was never a prohibition on a second state school being added. This is an internet myth. Florida nominated Florida State for membership in '92, and again in 2011. South Carolina wanted consideration for Clemson in 2011. Slives's "gentlemen's agreement" was not to nominate your in state rival until the renegotiation clause in the contract at that time was fulfilled and that required two new markets. After that clause was fulfilled Slive promised that no such restrictions would remain and that the only stipulation for any addition (outside of cultural fit) would be profitability.

The SEC didn't botch the Missouri addition. Missouri was the standby #2 for A&M that was needed when Oklahoma insisted we take OSU too. There were only 2 slots at the time and A&M was the #1 choice and we had to have 2 new markets and taking Oklahoma and Oklahoma State together would not have satisfied the contractual stipulation for renegotiation.
03-28-2020 12:44 PM
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Thiefery Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
Mizzu didn't bring anything to the table
03-28-2020 01:01 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 01:01 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Mizzu didn't bring anything to the table

Missouri brought 6 million people to the table in an era where the cable subscription fee model was driving payouts. That was it. They are also AAU and were seen as a possible blocking move for Big 10 contiguity moving South towards Texas.

But mostly they were taken because the network recommended them.
03-28-2020 01:08 PM
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Thiefery Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 07:22 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 10:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 10:27 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  An airport meeting is unlikely...but fun to speculate. If USC could convince UCLA and Stanford to explore their options, then things could get serious. UT-Austin and Oklahoma athletic departments carry a lot of weight and could collaborate in forming a new conference.

Getting these 5 schools AD aligned would do the trick. The California schools don’t want to get too far behind the BIG or SEC. Their current approach is getting them further behind in resources and championships, in the money making sports. The Cali schools can still be the core of a major conference if they expand the footprint with powerhouses like UT and OK.

TX and OK have options for making more money...such as just joining the SEC or BIG. Nevertheless, working with Cali schools can allow them to increase their revenues while maintaining their successful business model.

The 5 schools meet at an airport and develop the ground rules:
1) Cali schools get to select 2 more members of their conference than the Texahoma combo
2) Texahoma schools get to select whichever schools they need to be comfortable with creating a new conference
3) The new conference has to generate substantially higher TV revenues for the founding 5 than either PAC or B12 could

Potential 12 team conference:
East- TX, OK, TT, Baylor, OSU, ASU
West- USC, UCLA, Stan, WA, Cal, AZ

Potential 14 team conference adds
East- KS
West- OR

If you are going to go that route just start with the 12 AAU schools and add the best value from the rest until you get to 16:

Arizona, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Texas, Utah, Washington

Next best in Value: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech (because of Texas)

West: Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, U.C.L.A., Oregon, U.S.C., Stanford, Washington
East: Iowa St., Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

Both the Big 12 and PAC 12 GOR's expire in 2025. They can arrange the conference as they please without fear of legal entanglements.

The 5 high value schools (TX, OK, USC, UCLA and Stanford) aren’t interested in an academic alliance. They are creating the athletic conference that best helps them to create more value. They need schools that generate rivalries and passion among their fans. They need schools that have TV viewership. Their business models are what needs to be developed.

AAU membership is a nice resume builder, but it is not the driving force for forming this conference. A school like Colorado would be fine in the BIG (they are somewhere between UMD and Rutgers in creating value...they are all sole flagship AAU schools) and the BIG can afford to subsidize 50 years to help Colorado potentially develop a strong athletic department. AAU membership does not help any of the founding 5 athletic departments to grow their value.

Either of the small private schools in Texas (Baylor or TCU) have a better shot of winning a lottery ticket to the new conference. UT-Austin successfully builds its value by playing more games in Texas. At a minimum, UT-Austin needs 2 other TX schools plus OK in the new conference.

Also, the conference size needs to start smaller than either the BIG or SEC. The Big12 has a solid revenue advantage, compared to the ACC or PAC, because it doesn’t have to share TV revenue with too many schools. This new conference is not meant to start as a perfect peer of the SEC or PAC. It first needs to build cohesion which occurs by playing more games against each other.

While I agree with Texas wanting maybe to bring two other Texas based schools (Tech and TCU).. I think they could satisfy those schools with a guarantee that they or Tech plays them atleast once every other year. Also in this format I would ask Nebraska if they would want back into the fold. Take Utah out, then this gives Nebraska it's traditional games vs ou and co.

I don't like the idea of CA bringing 4 schools, but it seems from more of the plugged in WestCoast posters that it's a must. Both AZ and ASU would definitely be in as well since that is a growing state in population. Washington and Oregon would also be in. So that's the Pac division.

I think TCU comes along if Nebraska says no. Nebraska would be a huge get to re-establish the midwest region along with ou. If Nebraska comes into play, they would join UT,TT,ou, okie, ks,iowa st and co. If not, TCU comes into play and a vote off between co/utah/kstate for the other spot imo.

For the schools that are left behind..especially in bu (possibly TCU), it could form another salty conference. BU, TCU, UH, SMU, KSU, utah, co, csu, oregon st, washington st, Boise st, Fresno, SD, Nevada.. pick 12.. would be better than conference USA, no?
03-28-2020 01:22 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:01 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Mizzu didn't bring anything to the table

Missouri brought 6 million people to the table in an era where the cable subscription fee model was driving payouts. That was it. They are also AAU and were seen as a possible blocking move for Big 10 contiguity moving South towards Texas.

But mostly they were taken because the network recommended them.

I think Missouri was damaged by being put in the East versus the west with A&M. Being back in an AAU dominated conference with other near by schools might be intriguing to them. But I get Missouri is an extremely complex state so I’m only spit-balling here.
03-28-2020 03:50 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #267
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 03:50 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:01 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Mizzu didn't bring anything to the table

Missouri brought 6 million people to the table in an era where the cable subscription fee model was driving payouts. That was it. They are also AAU and were seen as a possible blocking move for Big 10 contiguity moving South towards Texas.

But mostly they were taken because the network recommended them.

I think Missouri was damaged by being put in the East versus the west with A&M. Being back in an AAU dominated conference with other near by schools might be intriguing to them. But I get Missouri is an extremely complex state so I’m only spit-balling here.

The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 04:00 PM by JRsec.)
03-28-2020 03:58 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 01:22 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 07:22 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 10:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 10:27 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  An airport meeting is unlikely...but fun to speculate. If USC could convince UCLA and Stanford to explore their options, then things could get serious. UT-Austin and Oklahoma athletic departments carry a lot of weight and could collaborate in forming a new conference.

Getting these 5 schools AD aligned would do the trick. The California schools don’t want to get too far behind the BIG or SEC. Their current approach is getting them further behind in resources and championships, in the money making sports. The Cali schools can still be the core of a major conference if they expand the footprint with powerhouses like UT and OK.

TX and OK have options for making more money...such as just joining the SEC or BIG. Nevertheless, working with Cali schools can allow them to increase their revenues while maintaining their successful business model.

The 5 schools meet at an airport and develop the ground rules:
1) Cali schools get to select 2 more members of their conference than the Texahoma combo
2) Texahoma schools get to select whichever schools they need to be comfortable with creating a new conference
3) The new conference has to generate substantially higher TV revenues for the founding 5 than either PAC or B12 could

Potential 12 team conference:
East- TX, OK, TT, Baylor, OSU, ASU
West- USC, UCLA, Stan, WA, Cal, AZ

Potential 14 team conference adds
East- KS
West- OR

If you are going to go that route just start with the 12 AAU schools and add the best value from the rest until you get to 16:

Arizona, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Texas, Utah, Washington

Next best in Value: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech (because of Texas)

West: Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, U.C.L.A., Oregon, U.S.C., Stanford, Washington
East: Iowa St., Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

Both the Big 12 and PAC 12 GOR's expire in 2025. They can arrange the conference as they please without fear of legal entanglements.

The 5 high value schools (TX, OK, USC, UCLA and Stanford) aren’t interested in an academic alliance. They are creating the athletic conference that best helps them to create more value. They need schools that generate rivalries and passion among their fans. They need schools that have TV viewership. Their business models are what needs to be developed.

AAU membership is a nice resume builder, but it is not the driving force for forming this conference. A school like Colorado would be fine in the BIG (they are somewhere between UMD and Rutgers in creating value...they are all sole flagship AAU schools) and the BIG can afford to subsidize 50 years to help Colorado potentially develop a strong athletic department. AAU membership does not help any of the founding 5 athletic departments to grow their value.

Either of the small private schools in Texas (Baylor or TCU) have a better shot of winning a lottery ticket to the new conference. UT-Austin successfully builds its value by playing more games in Texas. At a minimum, UT-Austin needs 2 other TX schools plus OK in the new conference.

Also, the conference size needs to start smaller than either the BIG or SEC. The Big12 has a solid revenue advantage, compared to the ACC or PAC, because it doesn’t have to share TV revenue with too many schools. This new conference is not meant to start as a perfect peer of the SEC or PAC. It first needs to build cohesion which occurs by playing more games against each other.

While I agree with Texas wanting maybe to bring two other Texas based schools (Tech and TCU).. I think they could satisfy those schools with a guarantee that they or Tech plays them atleast once every other year. Also in this format I would ask Nebraska if they would want back into the fold. Take Utah out, then this gives Nebraska it's traditional games vs ou and co.

I don't like the idea of CA bringing 4 schools, but it seems from more of the plugged in WestCoast posters that it's a must. Both AZ and ASU would definitely be in as well since that is a growing state in population. Washington and Oregon would also be in. So that's the Pac division.

I think TCU comes along if Nebraska says no. Nebraska would be a huge get to re-establish the midwest region along with ou. If Nebraska comes into play, they would join UT,TT,ou, okie, ks,iowa st and co. If not, TCU comes into play and a vote off between co/utah/kstate for the other spot imo.

For the schools that are left behind..especially in bu (possibly TCU), it could form another salty conference. BU, TCU, UH, SMU, KSU, utah, co, csu, oregon st, washington st, Boise st, Fresno, SD, Nevada.. pick 12.. would be better than conference USA, no?

I think people are under rating Utah. I think Utah gets in over one Arizona school. I also think you can’t ignore the 21st largest state and the Denver size market. So I can’t imagine Colorado not being in the East.

And yes the left overs could build a decent next tier conference also Texas and CA based.
03-28-2020 04:02 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #269
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 03:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:50 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:01 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Mizzu didn't bring anything to the table

Missouri brought 6 million people to the table in an era where the cable subscription fee model was driving payouts. That was it. They are also AAU and were seen as a possible blocking move for Big 10 contiguity moving South towards Texas.

But mostly they were taken because the network recommended them.

I think Missouri was damaged by being put in the East versus the west with A&M. Being back in an AAU dominated conference with other near by schools might be intriguing to them. But I get Missouri is an extremely complex state so I’m only spit-balling here.

The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.

Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.
03-28-2020 04:10 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #270
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 04:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:50 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:01 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Mizzu didn't bring anything to the table

Missouri brought 6 million people to the table in an era where the cable subscription fee model was driving payouts. That was it. They are also AAU and were seen as a possible blocking move for Big 10 contiguity moving South towards Texas.

But mostly they were taken because the network recommended them.

I think Missouri was damaged by being put in the East versus the west with A&M. Being back in an AAU dominated conference with other near by schools might be intriguing to them. But I get Missouri is an extremely complex state so I’m only spit-balling here.

The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.

Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.

1. You don't know what Texas wants to do or not do. Only Texas knows.
2. The PAC merger is good message board fodder but there isn't enough money in it. And you can use current revenue figures, market valuations, and WSJ numbers to see that is so. If Texas opted for it without ESPN's involvement they would lose money and possibly be in violation of the contract for the LHN.
3. If they could pull it off with network backing it would probably be better for college football in the long term. So I'm not against it and have always preferred SEC expansion to the East over that to the West. But the numbers, the ESPN factor, and the money make westward expansion more likely, not only for the SEC but the Big 10 as well. So I'm not against the hopes of those in the West, but neither do I see a likely path to that outcome.
03-28-2020 04:30 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 04:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:50 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Missouri brought 6 million people to the table in an era where the cable subscription fee model was driving payouts. That was it. They are also AAU and were seen as a possible blocking move for Big 10 contiguity moving South towards Texas.

But mostly they were taken because the network recommended them.

I think Missouri was damaged by being put in the East versus the west with A&M. Being back in an AAU dominated conference with other near by schools might be intriguing to them. But I get Missouri is an extremely complex state so I’m only spit-balling here.

The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.

Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.

1. You don't know what Texas wants to do or not do. Only Texas knows.
2. The PAC merger is good message board fodder but there isn't enough money in it. And you can use current revenue figures, market valuations, and WSJ numbers to see that is so. If Texas opted for it without ESPN's involvement they would lose money and possibly be in violation of the contract for the LHN.
3. If they could pull it off with network backing it would probably be better for college football in the long term. So I'm not against it and have always preferred SEC expansion to the East over that to the West. But the numbers, the ESPN factor, and the money make westward expansion more likely, not only for the SEC but the Big 10 as well. So I'm not against the hopes of those in the West, but neither do I see a likely path to that outcome.

1) if Texas wanted to go to the SEC either alone or with Oklahoma it would likely already happened.

2) we have already shown the combined Tv Contracts of the Big 12 and Pac12 exceeds the per school contract of the SEC. That number is the starting point as losing the lower level teams in both conferences subtracts no value except for maybe WVA. The value of USC-Texas or Washington-Oklahoma conference matchups add significant additional value. Personally if I were ESPN I’d demand Baylor be in as a Baylor-Stanford match-up would be classic. I’d pay $1000 a seat to watch Stanford’s Band skewer Baylor.

3) Both Fox and ESPN would be in a bidding war for primary conference rights as the couldn’t lose all prime games west of the Mississippi.
03-28-2020 10:31 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #272
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 10:31 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:50 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  I think Missouri was damaged by being put in the East versus the west with A&M. Being back in an AAU dominated conference with other near by schools might be intriguing to them. But I get Missouri is an extremely complex state so I’m only spit-balling here.

The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.

Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.

1. You don't know what Texas wants to do or not do. Only Texas knows.
2. The PAC merger is good message board fodder but there isn't enough money in it. And you can use current revenue figures, market valuations, and WSJ numbers to see that is so. If Texas opted for it without ESPN's involvement they would lose money and possibly be in violation of the contract for the LHN.
3. If they could pull it off with network backing it would probably be better for college football in the long term. So I'm not against it and have always preferred SEC expansion to the East over that to the West. But the numbers, the ESPN factor, and the money make westward expansion more likely, not only for the SEC but the Big 10 as well. So I'm not against the hopes of those in the West, but neither do I see a likely path to that outcome.

1) if Texas wanted to go to the SEC either alone or with Oklahoma it would likely already happened.

2) we have already shown the combined Tv Contracts of the Big 12 and Pac12 exceeds the per school contract of the SEC. That number is the starting point as losing the lower level teams in both conferences subtracts no value except for maybe WVA. The value of USC-Texas or Washington-Oklahoma conference matchups add significant additional value. Personally if I were ESPN I’d demand Baylor be in as a Baylor-Stanford match-up would be classic. I’d pay $1000 a seat to watch Stanford’s Band skewer Baylor.

3) Both Fox and ESPN would be in a bidding war for primary conference rights as the couldn’t lose all prime games west of the Mississippi.

You aren't even rational.

1. Texas has been in discussions with the SEC since 1987 their first priority is to keep the Big 12 together.

2. The per school payouts of the SEC exceed both the PAC 12 and Big 12 as of now. Texas and Oklahoma T3 rights have Oklahoma on par with the SEC and Texas at 51 million. In 2024 the least the SEC will receive is 20 million more per school with 4 year's of escalators so ~67 million a year per school.

Those payouts are based on ratings of which the SEC leads the Big 12 by almost 2 full points and the PAC by 3. We are .9 of a point ahead of the Big 10. That's what drives the payouts and if you are serious about your discussions you should already know that. The full value of the PAC is contained in the California schools plus 1 Arizona school, UW, Oregon, Utah, and Colorado. The rest add nothing. Adding those to Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas which is 70% of the value of the Big 12 won't get you to Big 10 payouts let alone what the SEC will be making by the time any of this is possible. The PAC numbers pull down the Big 12 numbers. They don't add to them.

3. FOX and ESPN lease PAC12 rights because all they need is the rights to a late game for their last slot on Saturday night. Texas and Oklahoma will be bid for by FOX and ESPN, but not to put with the PAC schools, but rather to be placed where their brands earn them the most revenue and that means either the Big 10 or SEC.

Content is the revenue driver now and both Oklahoma and Texas know it. Markets no longer count as much because Technology can tell us actually how many watched whereas in 2010 they could tell us how many possible homes they might reach. There's a major difference right there as to why things will not be as they were in 2010. The PAC12 has the worst % of actual viewers vs the total population of any region and the advertising money just isn't that great compared to that generated by the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 in that order where the % of actual viewers is a lot higher.

Do you homework.

When the SEC presidents meet to discuss candidates all of this information is laid out by media analysts and product evaluators. Mike Slive told the presidents in 2010 that nobody would be considered unless they added to the bottom line. That simply put means that the candidate has to raise the averages of the current SEC in valuation, revenue, attendance, and viewership.

Texas is strong enough to bring most anyone with them. Oklahoma is pretty much limited to Kansas if the school is going to be from the Big 12.

The ideal is just Texas and Oklahoma.

Nobody in the PAC could add value to the SEC and really they can't add value to the Big 10 either but the Big 10 might be interested in the academic associations. Nobody in the ACC adds value to the SEC or Big 10 (except partial Notre Dame who has enough value to take someone with them).

it all begins and ends with the payouts and whether a school can add to them. Why would the Big 10 want to take non AAU Oklahoma? They add to their bottom line.

Anything else is just killing time on message boards which is a okay, but only Oklahoma and Texas add to the value of the Big 10 and SEC without those 2 conferences raiding each other.
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 11:02 PM by JRsec.)
03-28-2020 10:58 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
SEC wouldn't be interested in getting into Tobacco Road?
03-28-2020 11:13 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 11:13 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  SEC wouldn't be interested in getting into Tobacco Road?

In 2010-1 when North Carolina wanted to know if they had a landing spot should the ACC disintegrate with the departure of Maryland the answer would have been yes. But then North Carolina is a big market and it was a market based pay model in 2010-2.

Today? That's a tough question. If they were coming with a school like Texas absolutely. If they were coming on their own their numbers don't do it. SEC academics would wrestle with the dilemma of having the opportunity, and I'm sure Kentucky would be fired up, but probably not.

Expansion is about to price itself out of existence for a while. Let's say hypothetically that the Big 10 took 1 of the top 3 (thinking Oklahoma and Kansas) and the SEC did land Texas and a buddy of their choosing then I think those 2 conferences are done. Other than raiding each other, which doesn't make geographical sense even if it was possible, there is nobody that can add to the bottom line left except for Notre Dame.

IMO the grand slam for the Big 10 would be Oklahoma and Notre Dame and for the SEC it would be Texas and Kansas. But I don't think either of those will likely be the pairs. But if those are accounted for between the SEC and Big 10 they are done.
03-28-2020 11:46 PM
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Sactowndog Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 10:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 10:31 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.

Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.

1. You don't know what Texas wants to do or not do. Only Texas knows.
2. The PAC merger is good message board fodder but there isn't enough money in it. And you can use current revenue figures, market valuations, and WSJ numbers to see that is so. If Texas opted for it without ESPN's involvement they would lose money and possibly be in violation of the contract for the LHN.
3. If they could pull it off with network backing it would probably be better for college football in the long term. So I'm not against it and have always preferred SEC expansion to the East over that to the West. But the numbers, the ESPN factor, and the money make westward expansion more likely, not only for the SEC but the Big 10 as well. So I'm not against the hopes of those in the West, but neither do I see a likely path to that outcome.

1) if Texas wanted to go to the SEC either alone or with Oklahoma it would likely already happened.

2) we have already shown the combined Tv Contracts of the Big 12 and Pac12 exceeds the per school contract of the SEC. That number is the starting point as losing the lower level teams in both conferences subtracts no value except for maybe WVA. The value of USC-Texas or Washington-Oklahoma conference matchups add significant additional value. Personally if I were ESPN I’d demand Baylor be in as a Baylor-Stanford match-up would be classic. I’d pay $1000 a seat to watch Stanford’s Band skewer Baylor.

3) Both Fox and ESPN would be in a bidding war for primary conference rights as the couldn’t lose all prime games west of the Mississippi.

You aren't even rational.

1. Texas has been in discussions with the SEC since 1987 their first priority is to keep the Big 12 together.

2. The per school payouts of the SEC exceed both the PAC 12 and Big 12 as of now. Texas and Oklahoma T3 rights have Oklahoma on par with the SEC and Texas at 51 million. In 2024 the least the SEC will receive is 20 million more per school with 4 year's of escalators so ~67 million a year per school.

Those payouts are based on ratings of which the SEC leads the Big 12 by almost 2 full points and the PAC by 3. We are .9 of a point ahead of the Big 10. That's what drives the payouts and if you are serious about your discussions you should already know that. The full value of the PAC is contained in the California schools plus 1 Arizona school, UW, Oregon, Utah, and Colorado. The rest add nothing. Adding those to Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas which is 70% of the value of the Big 12 won't get you to Big 10 payouts let alone what the SEC will be making by the time any of this is possible. The PAC numbers pull down the Big 12 numbers. They don't add to them.

3. FOX and ESPN lease PAC12 rights because all they need is the rights to a late game for their last slot on Saturday night. Texas and Oklahoma will be bid for by FOX and ESPN, but not to put with the PAC schools, but rather to be placed where their brands earn them the most revenue and that means either the Big 10 or SEC.

Content is the revenue driver now and both Oklahoma and Texas know it. Markets no longer count as much because Technology can tell us actually how many watched whereas in 2010 they could tell us how many possible homes they might reach. There's a major difference right there as to why things will not be as they were in 2010. The PAC12 has the worst % of actual viewers vs the total population of any region and the advertising money just isn't that great compared to that generated by the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 in that order where the % of actual viewers is a lot higher.

Do you homework.

When the SEC presidents meet to discuss candidates all of this information is laid out by media analysts and product evaluators. Mike Slive told the presidents in 2010 that nobody would be considered unless they added to the bottom line. That simply put means that the candidate has to raise the averages of the current SEC in valuation, revenue, attendance, and viewership.

Texas is strong enough to bring most anyone with them. Oklahoma is pretty much limited to Kansas if the school is going to be from the Big 12.

The ideal is just Texas and Oklahoma.

Nobody in the PAC could add value to the SEC and really they can't add value to the Big 10 either but the Big 10 might be interested in the academic associations. Nobody in the ACC adds value to the SEC or Big 10 (except partial Notre Dame who has enough value to take someone with them).

it all begins and ends with the payouts and whether a school can add to them. Why would the Big 10 want to take non AAU Oklahoma? They add to their bottom line.

Anything else is just killing time on message boards which is a okay, but only Oklahoma and Texas add to the value of the Big 10 and SEC without those 2 conferences raiding each other.

As you said their ideal is keeping the Big 12 together and the Airport comes closest to it. If you have been in talks (selling) since 1987 things don’t look so good.

Post Apple to Apple distribution numbers. I posted Apple to Apple 2018 audited numbers from Tax Statements. When you post actual Apple to Apple amounts I would be happy to listen.
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2020 12:26 AM by Sactowndog.)
03-29-2020 12:23 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #276
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-29-2020 12:23 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 10:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 10:31 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.

1. You don't know what Texas wants to do or not do. Only Texas knows.
2. The PAC merger is good message board fodder but there isn't enough money in it. And you can use current revenue figures, market valuations, and WSJ numbers to see that is so. If Texas opted for it without ESPN's involvement they would lose money and possibly be in violation of the contract for the LHN.
3. If they could pull it off with network backing it would probably be better for college football in the long term. So I'm not against it and have always preferred SEC expansion to the East over that to the West. But the numbers, the ESPN factor, and the money make westward expansion more likely, not only for the SEC but the Big 10 as well. So I'm not against the hopes of those in the West, but neither do I see a likely path to that outcome.

1) if Texas wanted to go to the SEC either alone or with Oklahoma it would likely already happened.

2) we have already shown the combined Tv Contracts of the Big 12 and Pac12 exceeds the per school contract of the SEC. That number is the starting point as losing the lower level teams in both conferences subtracts no value except for maybe WVA. The value of USC-Texas or Washington-Oklahoma conference matchups add significant additional value. Personally if I were ESPN I’d demand Baylor be in as a Baylor-Stanford match-up would be classic. I’d pay $1000 a seat to watch Stanford’s Band skewer Baylor.

3) Both Fox and ESPN would be in a bidding war for primary conference rights as the couldn’t lose all prime games west of the Mississippi.

You aren't even rational.

1. Texas has been in discussions with the SEC since 1987 their first priority is to keep the Big 12 together.

2. The per school payouts of the SEC exceed both the PAC 12 and Big 12 as of now. Texas and Oklahoma T3 rights have Oklahoma on par with the SEC and Texas at 51 million. In 2024 the least the SEC will receive is 20 million more per school with 4 year's of escalators so ~67 million a year per school.

Those payouts are based on ratings of which the SEC leads the Big 12 by almost 2 full points and the PAC by 3. We are .9 of a point ahead of the Big 10. That's what drives the payouts and if you are serious about your discussions you should already know that. The full value of the PAC is contained in the California schools plus 1 Arizona school, UW, Oregon, Utah, and Colorado. The rest add nothing. Adding those to Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas which is 70% of the value of the Big 12 won't get you to Big 10 payouts let alone what the SEC will be making by the time any of this is possible. The PAC numbers pull down the Big 12 numbers. They don't add to them.

3. FOX and ESPN lease PAC12 rights because all they need is the rights to a late game for their last slot on Saturday night. Texas and Oklahoma will be bid for by FOX and ESPN, but not to put with the PAC schools, but rather to be placed where their brands earn them the most revenue and that means either the Big 10 or SEC.

Content is the revenue driver now and both Oklahoma and Texas know it. Markets no longer count as much because Technology can tell us actually how many watched whereas in 2010 they could tell us how many possible homes they might reach. There's a major difference right there as to why things will not be as they were in 2010. The PAC12 has the worst % of actual viewers vs the total population of any region and the advertising money just isn't that great compared to that generated by the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 in that order where the % of actual viewers is a lot higher.

Do you homework.

When the SEC presidents meet to discuss candidates all of this information is laid out by media analysts and product evaluators. Mike Slive told the presidents in 2010 that nobody would be considered unless they added to the bottom line. That simply put means that the candidate has to raise the averages of the current SEC in valuation, revenue, attendance, and viewership.

Texas is strong enough to bring most anyone with them. Oklahoma is pretty much limited to Kansas if the school is going to be from the Big 12.

The ideal is just Texas and Oklahoma.

Nobody in the PAC could add value to the SEC and really they can't add value to the Big 10 either but the Big 10 might be interested in the academic associations. Nobody in the ACC adds value to the SEC or Big 10 (except partial Notre Dame who has enough value to take someone with them).

it all begins and ends with the payouts and whether a school can add to them. Why would the Big 10 want to take non AAU Oklahoma? They add to their bottom line.

Anything else is just killing time on message boards which is a okay, but only Oklahoma and Texas add to the value of the Big 10 and SEC without those 2 conferences raiding each other.

As you said their ideal is keeping the Big 12 together and the Airport comes closest to it. If you have been in talks (selling) since 1987 things don’t look so good.

Post Apple to Apple distribution numbers. I posted Apple to Apple 2018 audited numbers from Tax Statements. When you post actual Apple to Apple amounts I would be happy to listen.

No sir. I didn't say the airport conference comes close and neither will Texas.

You can go to the pinned important threads at the top of the SEC board and find all the damned apples you want. But the value of the Big 12 is in 3 schools. Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas account for right at 70% of the total value of the Big 12 and nobody in the PAC 12 is even in the ballpark. The market payouts are now for actual ad ratings and for content games which bring them. Texas and Oklahoma in either the SEC or Big 10 yields the most value.
03-29-2020 01:32 AM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #277
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
What's an "airport conference"?
03-29-2020 01:50 AM
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clpp01 Online
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Post: #278
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-29-2020 01:50 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  What's an "airport conference"?

Its a reference back to the collapse of the short lived 16 team WAC and the creation of the Mountain West conference which happened in an airport.

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/...457199002/
03-29-2020 02:02 AM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #279
RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
(03-28-2020 10:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 10:31 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 04:10 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 03:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The division didn't matter. They actually had more games with schools in the East than the West historically speaking. The damage was that there was only 1 sec school outside of A&M that they had played more than 5 times, Vanderbilt was that school if my memory serves me correctly. Think about that. Missouri had practically no common scheduling with any SEC school except Vanderbilt and not that much with them considering the age of the two schools. That was the issue. Their fans don't care about playing SEC schools and the fans of SEC schools didn't care about playing Missouri.

IMO this one reason the SEC wills strongly look at additions from the Big 12. Missouri needs some familiar faces. Both Texas and Oklahoma have far more history with SEC schools than did Mizzou.

Except I don’t think Texas wants to go to the SEC. I don’t think Oklahoma wants to go without OK State and Texas. The Airport conference offers Oklahoma an option to maintain ties with Texas, progress towards an AAU school, maintain basketball ties with Kansas and perhaps reignite ties with Nebraska or maintain Oklahoma State.

1. You don't know what Texas wants to do or not do. Only Texas knows.
2. The PAC merger is good message board fodder but there isn't enough money in it. And you can use current revenue figures, market valuations, and WSJ numbers to see that is so. If Texas opted for it without ESPN's involvement they would lose money and possibly be in violation of the contract for the LHN.
3. If they could pull it off with network backing it would probably be better for college football in the long term. So I'm not against it and have always preferred SEC expansion to the East over that to the West. But the numbers, the ESPN factor, and the money make westward expansion more likely, not only for the SEC but the Big 10 as well. So I'm not against the hopes of those in the West, but neither do I see a likely path to that outcome.

1) if Texas wanted to go to the SEC either alone or with Oklahoma it would likely already happened.

2) we have already shown the combined Tv Contracts of the Big 12 and Pac12 exceeds the per school contract of the SEC. That number is the starting point as losing the lower level teams in both conferences subtracts no value except for maybe WVA. The value of USC-Texas or Washington-Oklahoma conference matchups add significant additional value. Personally if I were ESPN I’d demand Baylor be in as a Baylor-Stanford match-up would be classic. I’d pay $1000 a seat to watch Stanford’s Band skewer Baylor.

3) Both Fox and ESPN would be in a bidding war for primary conference rights as the couldn’t lose all prime games west of the Mississippi.

You aren't even rational.

1. Texas has been in discussions with the SEC since 1987 their first priority is to keep the Big 12 together.

2. The per school payouts of the SEC exceed both the PAC 12 and Big 12 as of now. Texas and Oklahoma T3 rights have Oklahoma on par with the SEC and Texas at 51 million. In 2024 the least the SEC will receive is 20 million more per school with 4 year's of escalators so ~67 million a year per school.

Those payouts are based on ratings of which the SEC leads the Big 12 by almost 2 full points and the PAC by 3. We are .9 of a point ahead of the Big 10. That's what drives the payouts and if you are serious about your discussions you should already know that. The full value of the PAC is contained in the California schools plus 1 Arizona school, UW, Oregon, Utah, and Colorado. The rest add nothing. Adding those to Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas which is 70% of the value of the Big 12 won't get you to Big 10 payouts let alone what the SEC will be making by the time any of this is possible. The PAC numbers pull down the Big 12 numbers. They don't add to them.

3. FOX and ESPN lease PAC12 rights because all they need is the rights to a late game for their last slot on Saturday night. Texas and Oklahoma will be bid for by FOX and ESPN, but not to put with the PAC schools, but rather to be placed where their brands earn them the most revenue and that means either the Big 10 or SEC.

Content is the revenue driver now and both Oklahoma and Texas know it. Markets no longer count as much because Technology can tell us actually how many watched whereas in 2010 they could tell us how many possible homes they might reach. There's a major difference right there as to why things will not be as they were in 2010. The PAC12 has the worst % of actual viewers vs the total population of any region and the advertising money just isn't that great compared to that generated by the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 in that order where the % of actual viewers is a lot higher.

Do you homework.

When the SEC presidents meet to discuss candidates all of this information is laid out by media analysts and product evaluators. Mike Slive told the presidents in 2010 that nobody would be considered unless they added to the bottom line. That simply put means that the candidate has to raise the averages of the current SEC in valuation, revenue, attendance, and viewership.

Texas is strong enough to bring most anyone with them. Oklahoma is pretty much limited to Kansas if the school is going to be from the Big 12.

The ideal is just Texas and Oklahoma.

Nobody in the PAC could add value to the SEC and really they can't add value to the Big 10 either but the Big 10 might be interested in the academic associations. Nobody in the ACC adds value to the SEC or Big 10 (except partial Notre Dame who has enough value to take someone with them).

it all begins and ends with the payouts and whether a school can add to them. Why would the Big 10 want to take non AAU Oklahoma? They add to their bottom line.

Anything else is just killing time on message boards which is a okay, but only Oklahoma and Texas add to the value of the Big 10 and SEC without those 2 conferences raiding each other.
Agree 100% that if money and stability are the only considerations for their respective AD, then UT-Austin and OU would jump together to the SEC and call it a day (for 50 or so years04-cheers).

But it’s more interesting to speculate about how a viable western conference can try to challenge the current behemoths (BIG and SEC).
03-29-2020 07:33 AM
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Thiefery Offline
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RE: Staples: Now’s the time, Big 12, to go after the Pac-12’s biggest and best
Wait.. Y'all telling me that schools like SC, UCLA, Oregon or UW wouldn't add value to the Big 12? Like the 4pm EST kicks between a UW vs okie light? 8pm EST Texas vs SC.. hell even a 10pm EST game between Oregon and ou? U don't think fans from the EST would watch those? Hell if CO was added.. they could do well at a noon EST kickoff matchup vs TCU/TECH/KSU or let's say a **Neb**

LHN is not some sort of huge obstacle either. Big 12 prides itself on individual 3rd tier rights. With a merger of some sorts that have been discussed on here, I wouldn't be shocked to see multiple offers from networks for those rights. That would dictate whether they all sign off like the rest of the conferences do or continue to sell independently from one another.

Not sure why you have to be on the level of those two other conferences when it comes to payouts. as long as you can keep it within 5 or so mil who cares? Problem is that the Pac is not 5 or so mil behind them. Big 12 is fine as is at 10 schools. Hasn't hurt them from having a school compete in the CFP most times than not.
03-29-2020 08:47 AM
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