RE: An Asymmetric Outcome
You're not alone in gravitating towards symmetry. We've never had it in college sports so I'm not sure why we, including myself, believe it will ever happen. The conferences clearly don't care. Take a look at the Sugar Bowl, for example. The SEC doesn't care that each school has a theoretical 7.14% chance of playing in the Sugar Bowl while each XII school has a theoretical 10% chance. The XII, with 10 schools, has an equal chance to make the CFP as does the SEC, B1G, and ACC with 14 schools each and none of those conferences seem to care.
I think we'd see push back if an 8-school power conference appears (similar to the Big East) and there's power conferences with 16 or more schools. In that case, I think independents would be viewed as more acceptable entrants to the CFP. I think the ACC is more vulnerable than the XII, which may not be a popular opinion. Texas and Oklahoma are making good money in a conference they control. The ACC is a Frankenstein's monster of core ACC, southern independents, and Big East defects. While the XII isn't too terribly different, the characteristics of the ACC groupings vary much, much greater.
First and foremost, I think the PAC stays at 12 and remains the smallest leg of the power conferences. It is not unprecedented to have geographic outliers like that. In a similar comparison, my company is split into 4 global geographies which govern themselves to a certain degree: the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe & Central Asia (ECA), and Greater Middle East & Africa (GMEA). GMEA is significantly smaller in revenue than the other 3 but its politicogeographical differences make that separation a necessity.
Looking at splitting the ACC, the academic basketball ACC core (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia) seems to want to move together. Most seem to slot them in the B1G, and I usually do, but lets say they see the SEC as the better road. Why? More money, cultural fit, more favorable basketball scheduling, and its not like they were ever in the running to win the football national title. Football powers Florida St and Clemson also jump into the SEC - I don't think there's much debate here. That's 19 so the conference agrees to bring in Louisville who is a tremendous player in football, basketball, and baseball. The B1G becomes the favored destination for Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Virginia Tech - and stops. The rest (Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, and Wake Forest) join the XII. Notre Dame, in this case, may see the B1G as the home for its non-football sports with a similar Notre Dame-ACC deal. It already plays hockey there.
PAC
North: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford
South: USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado
XIV
West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St
East: Baylor, TCU, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, West Virginia
SEC
West: Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North: Missouri, Kentucky, Louisville, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
East: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida St
B1G
West: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
North: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St
East: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia Tech
*Notre Dame for non-football sports
NY6 tie-ins -
Rose Bowl: B1G vs. PAC
Sugar Bowl: SEC vs. XIV
Orange Bowl: B1G vs. SEC
Fiesta Bowl / Cotton Bowl / Peach Bowl: At-Large vs. At-Large
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