It’s MD-did anyone expect any different? Take the tin foil hat stuff to the Spin Room.

(03-05-2020 09:42 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(03-05-2020 02:58 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  There seems to be 1 team in the MAC right now that statistical ranking systems cannot come to an agreement, with extreme volatility in the rankings...that team is BGSU.

In the Massey composites, BGSU has a best ranking of 55 and a worst ranking of 183. The standard deviation listed in the Massey composites for BGSU is one of the higher in the country. KenPom has a "Luck" category which I am not fully sure what goes into it, but BGSU is number 1 in the nation. What makes this BGSU squad so hard to figure out, are they closer to that 183rd ranking or closer to the 55 ranking? I have got them in the lower 100s right now

Kenpom luck is pretty much how a teams actual win-loss record compares to the expected win-loss record based off of his metrics. In the season as a whole they're 21-9 (2nd best overall record in the MAC), but are 9th in the MAC in scoring margin at +1.8 ppg. In conference play they're 12-5, but actually have a negative scoring margin of -0.9 ppg. They're a combined 10-1 in games decided by 3 points or less and/or games that went to OT for the season and 7-0 in MAC play.

Any results based metric (wins/losses) is going to like BG because of their win/loss record. Any metric that looks at offensive/defensive efficiency isn't going to be as high since BG wins a lot of games by close margins and the majority of their losses have been by double figures. In reality they're somewhere in between the two.

Have to wonder how much the drama surrounding Frey has affected chemistry. He was one of their better players, left, then returned and they’ve not played well since.