I don't think there has been this specific speculation yet but I'm getting super worried about the Olympics being called off altogether to the Coronavirus (Japan has its schools shut down for a month, and South Korea now is really dealing with some ongoing virus spreads). Plus with the travel industry in turmoil, you'd have to wonder if Japan and the IOC might be better off postponing the entire Games to 2021?

We should know within a month or two tops whether it goes on or not. But if not, I am thinking the U.S. could revise a competition that I used to really enjoy when I was still in college and just out of college decades ago. The U.S. Olympic Festival was held from 1978 to 1995 (every year but an actual Olympic year), and was held with varying degrees of success throughout the country.

As I remember it, teams were competing for different parts of the country (East, West, South and North maybe?) and there were both the standard Olympic sports and then some unusual events that weren't held in the Olympics too?

It's a pretty costly venture so it might be tough to do at the last moment, but still you'd have to wonder if it make for an interesting substitute to the Olympics themselves if they were unfortunately canceled. I could see a few countries getting involved besides the United States too.

If the Olympics are cancelled or postponed because of coronavirus, creating additional sporting events that would potentially gather large crowds of people, especially if it involves bringing in athletes from other countries, would be irresponsible from a public health standpoint.

It won't be postponed or moved. It will either go on or be cancelled. https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication...k.amp.html

Coronavirus overkill and panic is spreading more rapidly than the actual disease, IMO.

(02-29-2020 08:42 AM)otown Wrote:  It won't be postponed or moved. It will either go on or be cancelled. https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication...k.amp.html

That's still just speculation by one person. At this point, billions of dollars have already been spent on infrastructure for the games, as they would be by any host city. To ask them to just eat that sunk cost could result in killing the Olympics entirely if cities in the future decline to bid on them.

I think you could make an argument that ceasing the Olympic movement entirely isn't necessarily a bad thing. But I don't think you would win that argument in the political realm. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the games have a permanent home, to do away with all the corruption that will inevitably surround the bidding process. But the chances of nations agreeing where that permanent home should be are slim to none.

They’d just do the games in Summer 2021

(02-29-2020 05:58 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I don't think there has been this specific speculation yet but I'm getting super worried about the Olympics being called off altogether to the Coronavirus (Japan has its schools shut down for a month, and South Korea now is really dealing with some ongoing virus spreads). Plus with the travel industry in turmoil, you'd have to wonder if Japan and the IOC might be better off postponing the entire Games to 2021?

We should know within a month or two tops whether it goes on or not. But if not, I am thinking the U.S. could revise a competition that I used to really enjoy when I was still in college and just out of college decades ago. The U.S. Olympic Festival was held from 1978 to 1995 (every year but an actual Olympic year), and was held with varying degrees of success throughout the country.

As I remember it, teams were competing for different parts of the country (East, West, South and North maybe?) and there were both the standard Olympic sports and then some unusual events that weren't held in the Olympics too?

It's a pretty costly venture so it might be tough to do at the last moment, but still you'd have to wonder if it make for an interesting substitute to the Olympics themselves if they were unfortunately canceled. I could see a few countries getting involved besides the United States too.

The Houston one (1987?) really boosted it. It became popular for a few years. I tried to volunteer to help, but they were oversubscribed with volunteers (as tends to happen in Houston).

(02-29-2020 08:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Coronavirus overkill and panic is spreading more rapidly than the actual disease, IMO.

You are sooooo right. More people will die from other individuals than mother nature as far as influenza.

As some have pointed out, the best defense against coronavirus is to take precautions like washing your hands and limiting literal contact with other people. Basically, these are things we should be doing anyway if we wanted to avoid viruses, but people are easily whipped up and the media needs clicks so here we are.

Not that I don't support governments taking reasonable precautions as well because technically this thing is not a known commodity. Even then, the flu will kill far more people certainly in the US and elsewhere. The only reason we don't flip out about the flu is because we have a "vaccine" and it happens every year. The fear factor is gone.

It's a shame if the Olympics get cancelled, but I have a feeling that won't happen because the virus has been spreading a lot less in the last couple of weeks. We'll likely have a handle on it very soon.

(03-01-2020 01:26 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  It's a shame if the Olympics get cancelled, but I have a feeling that won't happen because the virus has been spreading a lot less in the last couple of weeks. We'll likely have a handle on it very soon.

If you just look at the total numbers, it looks like it's getting under control because the majority of cases are still in China, so the Chinese trends are dominating the numbers, and here in China the growth rate is slowing and it's possible that the epidemic will crest this month and things will be getting back to normal in most places sometime in April.

But geographically, it looks a lot like it's going to become a pandemic. Of course part of the reason the numbers of confirmed cases are low in the US is lack of detection kits over there, so there may well be cases that are only unconfirmed because of the lack of capability to confirm them. But it's broken out in Italy, and when the planes from Italy land at JFK they don't even have fever detectors in place ... and that's just one channel.

Given that the US is not likely to have an effective response, it'll likely to just run its course, with a waves of cases in the Spring, a slow down in the summer, and then the main epidemic hitting in the Fall, until there are so many people who have recovered from the Covid19 infection that herd immunity slows its rate of transmission back down below 1.

(03-01-2020 02:22 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 01:26 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  It's a shame if the Olympics get cancelled, but I have a feeling that won't happen because the virus has been spreading a lot less in the last couple of weeks. We'll likely have a handle on it very soon.

If you just look at the total numbers, it looks like it's getting under control because the majority of cases are still in China, so the Chinese trends are dominating the numbers, and here in China the growth rate is slowing and it's possible that the epidemic will crest this month and things will be getting back to normal in most places sometime in April.

But geographically, it looks a lot like it's going to become a pandemic. Of course part of the reason the numbers of confirmed cases are low in the US is lack of detection kits over there, so there may well be cases that are only unconfirmed because of the lack of capability to confirm them. But it's broken out in Italy, and when the planes from Italy land at JFK they don't even have fever detectors in place ... and that's just one channel.

Given that the US is not likely to have an effective response, it'll likely to just run its course, with a waves of cases in the Spring, a slow down in the summer, and then the main epidemic hitting in the Fall, until there are so many people who have recovered from the Covid19 infection that herd immunity slows its rate of transmission back down below 1.

The solution China has found is to shut your country down for awhile. If that actually works, then the USA will be fine.

I've been speaking a lot lately with people who grew up in Russia & Eastern Europe, and they swear that compliance with government rules & recommendations is much higher in capitalist countries than totalitarian ones. Totalitarian countries have too many rules to follow, and the public doesn't respect the authority of the government that issues the rules. So 1st world countries will be just fine.

But in a 3rd world country, shutting the country down means people start to starve after a few weeks. So 3rd world countries will not be able to contain it; they can only hope they don't get hit.

It's already spreading in Iran and likely Afghanistan.

Is this the black plaque? This is so ridiculous.

(03-01-2020 02:22 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 01:26 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  It's a shame if the Olympics get cancelled, but I have a feeling that won't happen because the virus has been spreading a lot less in the last couple of weeks. We'll likely have a handle on it very soon.

If you just look at the total numbers, it looks like it's getting under control because the majority of cases are still in China, so the Chinese trends are dominating the numbers, and here in China the growth rate is slowing and it's possible that the epidemic will crest this month and things will be getting back to normal in most places sometime in April.

But geographically, it looks a lot like it's going to become a pandemic. Of course part of the reason the numbers of confirmed cases are low in the US is lack of detection kits over there, so there may well be cases that are only unconfirmed because of the lack of capability to confirm them. But it's broken out in Italy, and when the planes from Italy land at JFK they don't even have fever detectors in place ... and that's just one channel.

Given that the US is not likely to have an effective response, it'll likely to just run its course, with a waves of cases in the Spring, a slow down in the summer, and then the main epidemic hitting in the Fall, until there are so many people who have recovered from the Covid19 infection that herd immunity slows its rate of transmission back down below 1.

February 18th through February 25th: 5644 new cases
February 25th through March 2nd: 7762 new cases

Those are start of the day numbers (meaning any new cases today don't get added into it and it's not counting the 25th twice). I mean it's not some incredible thing where everyone is getting it right now, but it's also not slowing down (it did for a bit there, but then picked back up again).

The Olympics start in 144 days, just over 20 weeks. Much can change between now and then. Japan likely will have seen the outbreak slowed maybe even ended by then.

Might very well choose to proceed without crowds if it hasn't peaked or ended by then but there are way too many ticks left on the clock before any need to make a radical decision

(03-02-2020 02:33 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  The Olympics start in 144 days, just over 20 weeks. Much can change between now and then. Japan likely will have seen the outbreak slowed maybe even ended by then.

Might very well choose to proceed without crowds if it hasn't peaked or ended by then but there are way too many ticks left on the clock before any need to make a radical decision

Having the games on schedule but without crowds is probably the worst of a bad set of choices. Cities do not bid on the Olympics for altruistic reasons. Like it or not, this is a purely financial decision. If you postpone the games, then you at least get a chance to recoup much of your investment. If you hold them without crowds you lose that chance forever, and the only thing people watching on TV will remember about the games is the empty stands.

And, I suspect, many athletes might also decline to participate, tainting the medals those who do come earn. It's unlikely we will have enough information by the time a decision will have to be made. Postponing for a year when people still have time to cancel travel plans seems the more prudent course of action.

(03-01-2020 05:13 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 02:22 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 01:26 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  It's a shame if the Olympics get cancelled, but I have a feeling that won't happen because the virus has been spreading a lot less in the last couple of weeks. We'll likely have a handle on it very soon.

If you just look at the total numbers, it looks like it's getting under control because the majority of cases are still in China, so the Chinese trends are dominating the numbers, and here in China the growth rate is slowing and it's possible that the epidemic will crest this month and things will be getting back to normal in most places sometime in April.

But geographically, it looks a lot like it's going to become a pandemic. Of course part of the reason the numbers of confirmed cases are low in the US is lack of detection kits over there, so there may well be cases that are only unconfirmed because of the lack of capability to confirm them. But it's broken out in Italy, and when the planes from Italy land at JFK they don't even have fever detectors in place ... and that's just one channel.

Given that the US is not likely to have an effective response, it'll likely to just run its course, with a waves of cases in the Spring, a slow down in the summer, and then the main epidemic hitting in the Fall, until there are so many people who have recovered from the Covid19 infection that herd immunity slows its rate of transmission back down below 1.

The solution China has found is to shut your country down for awhile. If that actually works, then the USA will be fine.

I've been speaking a lot lately with people who grew up in Russia & Eastern Europe, and they swear that compliance with government rules & recommendations is much higher in capitalist countries than totalitarian ones. Totalitarian countries have too many rules to follow, and the public doesn't respect the authority of the government that issues the rules. So 1st world countries will be just fine.

But in a 3rd world country, shutting the country down means people start to starve after a few weeks. So 3rd world countries will not be able to contain it; they can only hope they don't get hit.

It's already spreading in Iran and likely Afghanistan.

I can't imagine the US ever restricting travel to the degree that China has or mandating that people wear masks in public. Can you imagine The Federal Govt ever basically placing all of Seattle on lockdown not allowing travel in or out like China did to Wuhan? Not for this virus at least. It will likely spread very quickly through the US. You might see local and state health agencies urging citizens to stay home if/when it becomes widespread in specific areas.

(03-03-2020 10:32 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 05:13 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 02:22 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-01-2020 01:26 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  It's a shame if the Olympics get cancelled, but I have a feeling that won't happen because the virus has been spreading a lot less in the last couple of weeks. We'll likely have a handle on it very soon.

If you just look at the total numbers, it looks like it's getting under control because the majority of cases are still in China, so the Chinese trends are dominating the numbers, and here in China the growth rate is slowing and it's possible that the epidemic will crest this month and things will be getting back to normal in most places sometime in April.

But geographically, it looks a lot like it's going to become a pandemic. Of course part of the reason the numbers of confirmed cases are low in the US is lack of detection kits over there, so there may well be cases that are only unconfirmed because of the lack of capability to confirm them. But it's broken out in Italy, and when the planes from Italy land at JFK they don't even have fever detectors in place ... and that's just one channel.

Given that the US is not likely to have an effective response, it'll likely to just run its course, with a waves of cases in the Spring, a slow down in the summer, and then the main epidemic hitting in the Fall, until there are so many people who have recovered from the Covid19 infection that herd immunity slows its rate of transmission back down below 1.

The solution China has found is to shut your country down for awhile. If that actually works, then the USA will be fine.

I've been speaking a lot lately with people who grew up in Russia & Eastern Europe, and they swear that compliance with government rules & recommendations is much higher in capitalist countries than totalitarian ones. Totalitarian countries have too many rules to follow, and the public doesn't respect the authority of the government that issues the rules. So 1st world countries will be just fine.

But in a 3rd world country, shutting the country down means people start to starve after a few weeks. So 3rd world countries will not be able to contain it; they can only hope they don't get hit.

It's already spreading in Iran and likely Afghanistan.

I can't imagine the US ever restricting travel to the degree that China has or mandating that people wear masks in public. Can you imagine The Federal Govt ever basically placing all of Seattle on lockdown not allowing travel in or out like China did to Wuhan? Not for this virus at least. It will likely spread very quickly through the US. You might see local and state health agencies urging citizens to stay home if/when it becomes widespread in specific areas.

The lower middle class and middle class with no insurance or fear of using it because of copays and deductibles are also the same people likely to "tough it out" and go work sick. Likely to be the prime instrument for spreading it in the US. Last year during the flu outbreak friend whose wife worked at a Colton's Steakhouse got fired because she refused to come into work after testing positive for the flu and was running a fever of 101. Employers like that will be certainly make sure it spreads.

Problem solved: