Frick Turkey. (Not the way prog filth would)

But frick them

Make Istanbul Constantinople Again

Oh. And Frick Syria too.

Just knowing what happened to the Armenians a century ago when the Turks were at war against Russia, I would be very nervous if I were Syrian refugee (or any ethnic minority) in Turkey.

My 95-year old grandma says that Turkey was perhaps her favorite place she's ever visited, and she really saw the world when she was young. I hope things stabilize and that I can see it one day as well.

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 03:02 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 02:14 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 12:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Yup. Thats why I said---time for them to pick sides. Want to buddy up to Russia? Well---time to kiss their feet if thats who you want to run with. Frankly, I think Russia will back down if they get called out---but as long as nobody will oppose them, then they will keep going. From their prospective---there is no reason not to keep pushing. That said, thats why we have no business there. We have no interest in that enclave. Its on Turkey's border--not ours. If they are concerned---then they should handle it. If Europe doesnt want the refugees---then they should help Turkey. Let Europe deal with Europe's problem.

The NATO aspect is what makes it sticky. But if the refugees are released there will be epic turmoil in Europe.

Not really. We can just do what Turkey did in Afghanistan and send non-combat troops.

Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yep, but we could say that Turkey is in breach of their obligations to NATO and we are not bound to defend them. We should not defend them even if Article 5 is invoked. Break the treaty if need be.

(02-29-2020 03:23 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 03:02 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 02:14 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  The NATO aspect is what makes it sticky. But if the refugees are released there will be epic turmoil in Europe.

Not really. We can just do what Turkey did in Afghanistan and send non-combat troops.

Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yep, but we could say that Turkey is in breach of their obligations to NATO and we are not bound to defend them. We should not defend them even if Article 5 is invoked. Break the treaty if need be.

#putinwinning

And...I could care less. I don't trust the Turks one iota.

(02-28-2020 06:01 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 03:02 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 02:14 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  The NATO aspect is what makes it sticky. But if the refugees are released there will be epic turmoil in Europe.

Not really. We can just do what Turkey did in Afghanistan and send non-combat troops.

Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yes, but let's take our sweet time about it. There's countrys closer than us who can come to their aid quicker.

Yup.

I say let the vainglorious EU clean up their own backyard for the first time in a century. Well beyond “about time”.

(02-29-2020 03:30 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 03:23 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 03:02 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  Not really. We can just do what Turkey did in Afghanistan and send non-combat troops.

Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yep, but we could say that Turkey is in breach of their obligations to NATO and we are not bound to defend them. We should not defend them even if Article 5 is invoked. Break the treaty if need be.

#putinwinning

Hopefully in this case. I bet you dont even know why you dislike Putin. Go Google your talking points. Ready, set, go.

(02-29-2020 03:30 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 03:23 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 03:02 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  Not really. We can just do what Turkey did in Afghanistan and send non-combat troops.

Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yep, but we could say that Turkey is in breach of their obligations to NATO and we are not bound to defend them. We should not defend them even if Article 5 is invoked. Break the treaty if need be.

#putinwinning

He was winning in Turkey when they were cozying up to him and trying to buy his missiles. Now not so much.

And just to be clear, is your position that we should go to war with Russia to defend Turkey who has been a sh*try ally and just let thousands of muslim migrants bolt into Europe?

(02-29-2020 03:30 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 03:23 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 03:02 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  Not really. We can just do what Turkey did in Afghanistan and send non-combat troops.

Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yep, but we could say that Turkey is in breach of their obligations to NATO and we are not bound to defend them. We should not defend them even if Article 5 is invoked. Break the treaty if need be.

#putinwinning

Putin is claiming "It wasnt us!" I wonder why that is....

lol...Putin has figured out Turkey is NATO. He's realizing Turkey has a 250 or so modern F-16's with a lot of quality NATO weapons. So, if Turkey starts useing those weapons, Putin cant push back too hard without risking a major NATO conflict. So--to avoid a NATO war---Putin has to risk losing quality war planes, trained pilots, and perhaps even naval vessels----fighting in a weird limited war where---even if he wins---he gets a bombed out bass-ackwards city with a few million refugees as a the prize. Imagine dealing with ISIS or the Taliban who are backed by F-16's, a modern Navy, and a modern NATO army. Hell, Russia had trouble with Afghan rebels who just had AK-47's and a handful of Stingers. This ought to be fun to watch.

If thats #putinwinning----may he take numerous victory laps. My guess is this will end up at a negotiating table. Putin isnt stupid.

Not muh problem.

(02-29-2020 05:57 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 03:30 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 03:23 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 05:38 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  Let's give them what Oblunder gave Ukraine.

Ukraine wasn't and isn't a member of NATO. If they request and get an invocation of Article 5 we are bound by treaty to assist.

Yep, but we could say that Turkey is in breach of their obligations to NATO and we are not bound to defend them. We should not defend them even if Article 5 is invoked. Break the treaty if need be.

#putinwinning

Putin is claiming "It wasnt us!" I wonder why that is....

lol...Putin has figured out Turkey is NATO. He's realizing Turkey has a 250 or so modern F-16's with a lot of quality NATO weapons. So, if Turkey starts useing those weapons, Putin cant push back too hard without risking a major NATO conflict. So--to avoid a NATO war---Putin has to risk losing quality war planes, trained pilots, and perhaps even naval vessels----fighting in a weird limited war where---even if he wins---he gets a bombed out bass-ackwards city with a few million refugees as a the prize. Imagine dealing with ISIS or the Taliban who are backed by F-16's, a modern Navy, and a modern NATO army. Hell, Russia had trouble with Afghan rebels who just had AK-47's and a handful of Stingers. This ought to be fun to watch.

If thats #putinwinning----may he take numerous victory laps. My guess is this will end up at a negotiating table. Putin isnt stupid.

I would imagine that somewhere in the military someone brought it to Putin's attention that if he risks conflict with Turkey that the Russian forces deployed to Syria will die on the vine since they are dependent upon their logistics navigating the Turkish Straits, and under the Montreux Convention Turkey has the right to deny access to all ships of countries at war with Turkey.

Turkey apparently shot down two Syrian fighter jets after the Syrians shot down a Turkish drone. There were also some claims that an Aleppo military airfield used by the Syrians to attack the Turks last week (34 Turk soldiers killed in the attack) was also hit by airstrikes and put out of service. The reports if the airbase attack was not immediately verifiable by Al Jazera. Seems both the Russian and Turkish plan to avoid escalating the situation into a Russo-Turkish conflict (that could require a NATO response) is to restrict escalations and responses in the area to the Syrian forces. The Russians have denied having anything to do with the attack that killed 34 Turks, and the Turks have avoided striking at Russian targets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-intensify

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/s...53040.html

Syria, Israel, Russia, Iran and Turkey's militarys are all clustered together in that area so its pretty much impossible to not have some problems.

(03-01-2020 12:49 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  Syria, Israel, Russia, Iran and Turkey's militarys are all clustered together in that area so its pretty much impossible to not have some problems.

lol---and various rebel forces are mixed in there as well. So glad we bailed.

Syria and Turkey appear to be at war. Russia is sitting it out for the time being.

https://syriadirect.org/news/turkey-and-...o-watch-2/


"On Sunday, March 1, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar announced that his country was launching “Operation Spring Shield” in Idlib province, northwestern Syria, adding that it had already killed over 2,200 “Syrian regime soldiers....”"


Syrian military sources told Syria Direct that government forces retook the entire city of Saraqeb; however, those reports remain unverified. At the same time, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Turkish-backed factions have captured 31 areas in Idlib and Hama provinces since Thursday.

Where is Russia?

Russia has been conspicuously absent during Turkey’s offensive in Idlib, leaving its client-state to fend for itself in the northwest province. Russian jets—which have patrolled Idlib’s skies almost daily since April— have not conducted a bombing in the province since Thursday night...."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...e-to-putin

And a new type of war:

"...Turkey deployed swarms of killer drones to strike Russian-backed Syrian government forces, in what a senior official said was a military innovation that demonstrated Ankara’s technological prowess on the battlefield.

The retaliation for the killing last week of 33 Turkish soldiers by Syrian forces involved an unprecedented number of drones in coordinated action, said the senior official in Turkey with direct knowledge of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Syria policy. It was the first time a country had commanded the air space over such a large area using drone swarms, according to the official...."

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina...idlib.html

These analysts are not looking at facts on the ground. Turkey would crush Russia's forces in Syria if they joined Assad. And Russia isn't going to attack Turkey itself. They like their Syrian base and so are not going to get between Turkey and Syria in any limited operation. In a bigger operation, they really can't get enough forces to stop the Turks.


"...Did Putin underestimate Erdogan when the pugnacious Turkish leader set a Feb. 29 deadline for Syrian forces to move out of Idlib? Is he merely letting Erdogan save face? Or does Ankara have more agency in its relations with Moscow than it is credited for? It’s probably a bit of everything, said Kevork Oskanian, an honorary research fellow at Birmingham University who is writing a book titled “Russian Empire.” He told Al-Monitor, "Russia’s reluctance to intervene in the regime’s favor does appear to be designed to allow Erdogan to save face while also softening Assad up for compromise.” Oskanian continued, “At this stage, I am wondering whether a grand bargain could yet emerge, taking into account Turkish interests in Syria — particularly regarding the Kurds — and the Russian urge to see military closure, perhaps through a ‘managed’ takeover of Idlib, as the final piece of the puzzle. The preliminary result could yet be a fudge — preventing escalation but not really providing finality.”

Others reckon that while Putin may well have miscalculated just how far Erdogan is willing to go, ultimately it is Russia rather than Turkey that will prevail on the terms of any de-escalation...."

People forget that these rebels had Assad on the ropes. It was only the Iranians and Hezbelloh coupled with the Russian air force that saved him. Hezbelloh is not going to back a loser and the Iranians can't get there if Turkey controls the air space.

I don't think Turkey wants any more than a zone of influence in the north of Syria. But if they wanted, they could bring down Assad quickly.

(03-02-2020 11:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  People forget that these rebels had Assad on the ropes. It was only the Iranians and Hezbelloh coupled with the Russian air force that saved him. Hezbelloh is not going to back a loser and the Iranians can't get there if Turkey controls the air space.

I don't think Turkey wants any more than a zone of influence in the north of Syria. But if they wanted, they could bring down Assad quickly.

Russia has a naval base on the coast of Syria, their only base on the Mediterranean. Syria is a key ally of Iran's and part of their attempt to keep the Israel-Egypt-Saudi alliance in check. Hezbollah acts as a front in Lebanon, representing Iranian and Syrian interests. All three have very good reason to support the Assad government. I can see why Turkey would want to get involved in the northeast, since a Kurdish ethnostate would destabilize the southeast of their country, but I don't know why they'd directly prop up the rebels in the northwest and antagonize Russia, all while antagonizing Europe by sending a bunch of illegals to the Greek and Bulgarian borders. The only legitimate reason I can think of is Erdogan's an idiot.

(03-02-2020 11:37 AM)Mav Wrote:  

(03-02-2020 11:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  People forget that these rebels had Assad on the ropes. It was only the Iranians and Hezbelloh coupled with the Russian air force that saved him. Hezbelloh is not going to back a loser and the Iranians can't get there if Turkey controls the air space.

I don't think Turkey wants any more than a zone of influence in the north of Syria. But if they wanted, they could bring down Assad quickly.

Russia has a naval base on the coast of Syria, their only base on the Mediterranean. Syria is a key ally of Iran's and part of their attempt to keep the Israel-Egypt-Saudi alliance in check. Hezbollah acts as a front in Lebanon, representing Iranian and Syrian interests. All three have very good reason to support the Assad government. I can see why Turkey would want to get involved in the northeast, since a Kurdish ethnostate would destabilize the southeast of their country, but I don't know why they'd directly prop up the rebels in the northwest and antagonize Russia, all while antagonizing Europe by sending a bunch of illegals to the Greek and Bulgarian borders. The only legitimate reason I can think of is Erdogan's an idiot.

Turkey wants a buffer zone they control and they don’t want 3 million more refugees. Russia can’t really get in this fight directly without risking a wider conflict with NATO. Basically, Putin is not stupid. He takes the easy gimme wins and stops when there might be real resistance or a significant cost. Turkey has a large modern Army, a modern Air Force, is fighting on its own border, and is a NATO member. Sure, Russia might be able to win that war, but such a fight would degrade Russian strength (likely costing many of their best aircraft and trained pilots), tie up virtually all their major fighting assets—-all just to end up eventually at the same negotiating table. It would also leave them less able to respond to other areas of the world—and more vulnerable in other areas of the NATO border and Chinese borders. There likely would be economic consequences as well. There just isn’t much upside in fighting Turkey on this one and Putin knows it—especially considering he already can declare victory having guaranteed Russia has what it wants (the continued existence of a friendly and loyal Syrian client state).

This should be a lesson in Ukraine. Arm the Ukrainians, make them part of NATO—and that issue is done.