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Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-11-2020 11:47 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  It's now March 11th - this post looks pretty prescient at this point.

One difference between your prediction is that "the virus has gotten into some of the general population" by mid-March. So we're probably talking an accelerated peak vs. mid-July.

The US new case rate is at present increasing the fastest among the major countries with substantial numbers infected. Either the US has got a more infectious variant, or the bungling of the testing means that a smaller share of US cases are known and part of the increase in case rate is an increase in the share of the US cases we are discovering.

Which puts the US on a track to an earlier peak.

The death toll will be substantially lower if the US could adopt an aggressive testing and contact tracing system like they have in South Korea, which had the first reported case the same day as in the US ... but that would also delay the peak, since part of the decrease in the death toll is from slowing the rate of increase to reduce the number of cases per day to decrease the risk of overwhelming ICU capacity.

But if y'all stateside don't get that kind of system in place, that's a track with a more brutal but earlier peak. Herd immunity levels required are still speculative at this point, since we don't know susceptibility to re-infection, but it's plausible that the epidemic would have burned itself out soon enough to have a college football season ... perhaps a reduced 8/9-game schedule with an opening delayed one month.
03-19-2020 12:46 PM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #122
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 12:46 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 10:25 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 09:52 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  I will not put any credence to this report, but this Nobel Prize winner, Israeli no less, believes that the end is nigh for this virus:

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israe...621145/amp

I mean yeah, it's slowing down in China because they, as authoritarian governments are able to do, forced people to stay in their homes and also forced everyone to get tested and quarantined when they left their homes.

Currently the rate of spread in the rest of the world is faster than it ever was in China with over 20,000 new cases in a single day. In most areas we're still drastically under testing compared to where we need to be. Even with China forcibly testing everyone and locking them down, the most in a single day they saw was just over 14,000.
Well they created it, so they can stop it.

This is an extremely terrible statement and no one should ever make it. It's going to lead to increased anger and eventually violence against people of Asian heritage.

They were the first to get infected with it and the first to have people die from it. The rest of the world mostly got it from tourists traveling to China, and not people from China traveling to other places. In fact, most of the spread for the rest of the world originated in the Italian outbreak of it.

They haven't stopped it. They've slowed it to the point where they can say they've now "flattened the curve" (what the rest of the world needs to do). They, along with South Korea and a few others, knew what to do because they learned from the SARS epidemic and kept things in place from then.
03-19-2020 01:20 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #123
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 01:20 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 12:46 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 10:25 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 09:52 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  I will not put any credence to this report, but this Nobel Prize winner, Israeli no less, believes that the end is nigh for this virus:

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israe...621145/amp

I mean yeah, it's slowing down in China because they, as authoritarian governments are able to do, forced people to stay in their homes and also forced everyone to get tested and quarantined when they left their homes.

Currently the rate of spread in the rest of the world is faster than it ever was in China with over 20,000 new cases in a single day. In most areas we're still drastically under testing compared to where we need to be. Even with China forcibly testing everyone and locking them down, the most in a single day they saw was just over 14,000.
Well they created it, so they can stop it.

This is an extremely terrible statement and no one should ever make it. It's going to lead to increased anger and eventually violence against people of Asian heritage.

They were the first to get infected with it and the first to have people die from it. The rest of the world mostly got it from tourists traveling to China, and not people from China traveling to other places. In fact, most of the spread for the rest of the world originated in the Italian outbreak of it.

They haven't stopped it. They've slowed it to the point where they can say they've now "flattened the curve" (what the rest of the world needs to do). They, along with South Korea and a few others, knew what to do because they learned from the SARS epidemic and kept things in place from then.
Tourists did help to spread it. But it got out of Wuhan (the locus of their biological weapons research center) via the myriad of corporations which located their production facilities there. We know the Chinese sat on this for several weeks before admitting they had a problem and locking down travel to and from Wuhan.

Now whether this is a virus spread from pangolins or something else it got out precisely because of the initial handling of the outbreak, where silence was not the best response, but typical of the Chinese communist regime.

Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.
03-19-2020 01:50 PM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #124
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:20 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 12:46 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 10:25 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 09:52 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  I will not put any credence to this report, but this Nobel Prize winner, Israeli no less, believes that the end is nigh for this virus:

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israe...621145/amp

I mean yeah, it's slowing down in China because they, as authoritarian governments are able to do, forced people to stay in their homes and also forced everyone to get tested and quarantined when they left their homes.

Currently the rate of spread in the rest of the world is faster than it ever was in China with over 20,000 new cases in a single day. In most areas we're still drastically under testing compared to where we need to be. Even with China forcibly testing everyone and locking them down, the most in a single day they saw was just over 14,000.
Well they created it, so they can stop it.

This is an extremely terrible statement and no one should ever make it. It's going to lead to increased anger and eventually violence against people of Asian heritage.

They were the first to get infected with it and the first to have people die from it. The rest of the world mostly got it from tourists traveling to China, and not people from China traveling to other places. In fact, most of the spread for the rest of the world originated in the Italian outbreak of it.

They haven't stopped it. They've slowed it to the point where they can say they've now "flattened the curve" (what the rest of the world needs to do). They, along with South Korea and a few others, knew what to do because they learned from the SARS epidemic and kept things in place from then.
Tourists did help to spread it. But it got out of Wuhan (the locus of their biological weapons research center) via the myriad of corporations which located their production facilities there. We know the Chinese sat on this for several weeks before admitting they had a problem and locking down travel to and from Wuhan.

Now whether this is a virus spread from pangolins or something else it got out precisely because of the initial handling of the outbreak, where silence was not the best response, but typical of the Chinese communist regime.

Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.

Their government didn't do great to start things off, but let's not pretend that our government didn't try to do the exact same thing here for a while.

There were literally statements declaring the magnitude of the issue as a hoax (I'm not saying the President ever said the virus itself was a hoax, he DID say that the projections for how bad it will get was a hoax by the Democrats as their next way to attack him).

South Korea had their first cases around the same time we did. Their response was to treat it seriously and start testing anyone and everyone, and then followed up on everyone who had contact with anyone who had tested positive. The only reason it got as bad as it did there for a while was because of a single person who ignored the regulations they were trying to put in place (story here). We're undertesting and have still passed them for number of cases (people are still being turned away who have many of the symptoms, because the tests are being saved for people who are extremely sick or who have had contact with a confirmed case...but because they're not testing everyone there are fewer confirmed cases which means there will be fewer links and they keep testing no one except the very ill). They also have the lowest mortality rate because they slowed the spread to the point where hospitals didn't get overwhelmed. The opposite of what we're seeing in most European and American countries.

Imagine what it would look like if literally every country responded that way rather than just blaming China.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2020 02:10 PM by e-parade.)
03-19-2020 02:07 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #125
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 02:07 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:20 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 12:46 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 10:25 PM)e-parade Wrote:  I mean yeah, it's slowing down in China because they, as authoritarian governments are able to do, forced people to stay in their homes and also forced everyone to get tested and quarantined when they left their homes.

Currently the rate of spread in the rest of the world is faster than it ever was in China with over 20,000 new cases in a single day. In most areas we're still drastically under testing compared to where we need to be. Even with China forcibly testing everyone and locking them down, the most in a single day they saw was just over 14,000.
Well they created it, so they can stop it.

This is an extremely terrible statement and no one should ever make it. It's going to lead to increased anger and eventually violence against people of Asian heritage.

They were the first to get infected with it and the first to have people die from it. The rest of the world mostly got it from tourists traveling to China, and not people from China traveling to other places. In fact, most of the spread for the rest of the world originated in the Italian outbreak of it.

They haven't stopped it. They've slowed it to the point where they can say they've now "flattened the curve" (what the rest of the world needs to do). They, along with South Korea and a few others, knew what to do because they learned from the SARS epidemic and kept things in place from then.
Tourists did help to spread it. But it got out of Wuhan (the locus of their biological weapons research center) via the myriad of corporations which located their production facilities there. We know the Chinese sat on this for several weeks before admitting they had a problem and locking down travel to and from Wuhan.

Now whether this is a virus spread from pangolins or something else it got out precisely because of the initial handling of the outbreak, where silence was not the best response, but typical of the Chinese communist regime.

Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.

Their government didn't do great to start things off, but let's not pretend that our government didn't try to do the exact same thing here for a while.

There were literally statements declaring the magnitude of the issue as a hoax (I'm not saying the President ever said the virus itself was a hoax, he DID say that the projections for how bad it will get was a hoax by the Democrats as their next way to attack him).

South Korea had their first cases around the same time we did. Their response was to treat it seriously and start testing anyone and everyone, and then followed up on everyone who had contact with anyone who had tested positive. The only reason it got as bad as it did there for a while was because of a single person who ignored the regulations they were trying to put in place (story here: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALT...dex.html). We're undertesting and have still passed them for number of cases (people are still being turned away who have many of the symptoms, because the tests are being saved for people who are extremely sick or who have had contact with a confirmed case...but because they're not testing everyone there are fewer confirmed cases which means there will be fewer links and they keep testing no one except the very ill). They also have the lowest mortality rate because they slowed the spread to the point where hospitals didn't get overwhelmed. The opposite of what we're seeing in most European and American countries.

Imagine what it would look like if literally every country responded that way rather than just blaming China.

There are two things wrong here:
1. The immediate discussion was about fault. That plainly lies with China.
2. What other countries have and haven't done and your political beliefs over it are for the Spin Room as the OP here is about whether we might lose the 2020 football season due to the virus outbreak and spread and is not intended on this board to deal with the political fallout.

And that's all need be said for the purposes of this thread.
03-19-2020 02:11 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #126
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Just for the sake of argument, how many schools could justify paying coaching staffs at current contract rates if the football season were cancelled and there were no on-field product to provide a revenue stream? How many coaches would agree to drastically reduced salaries? Would schools be obliged to honor athletic scholarships? How many kids would use cancellation of a season as an excuse to search for greener pastures?

I can envision huge games of musical chairs unfolding.
03-19-2020 02:31 PM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #127
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:07 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:20 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 12:46 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  Well they created it, so they can stop it.

This is an extremely terrible statement and no one should ever make it. It's going to lead to increased anger and eventually violence against people of Asian heritage.

They were the first to get infected with it and the first to have people die from it. The rest of the world mostly got it from tourists traveling to China, and not people from China traveling to other places. In fact, most of the spread for the rest of the world originated in the Italian outbreak of it.

They haven't stopped it. They've slowed it to the point where they can say they've now "flattened the curve" (what the rest of the world needs to do). They, along with South Korea and a few others, knew what to do because they learned from the SARS epidemic and kept things in place from then.
Tourists did help to spread it. But it got out of Wuhan (the locus of their biological weapons research center) via the myriad of corporations which located their production facilities there. We know the Chinese sat on this for several weeks before admitting they had a problem and locking down travel to and from Wuhan.

Now whether this is a virus spread from pangolins or something else it got out precisely because of the initial handling of the outbreak, where silence was not the best response, but typical of the Chinese communist regime.

Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.

Their government didn't do great to start things off, but let's not pretend that our government didn't try to do the exact same thing here for a while.

There were literally statements declaring the magnitude of the issue as a hoax (I'm not saying the President ever said the virus itself was a hoax, he DID say that the projections for how bad it will get was a hoax by the Democrats as their next way to attack him).

South Korea had their first cases around the same time we did. Their response was to treat it seriously and start testing anyone and everyone, and then followed up on everyone who had contact with anyone who had tested positive. The only reason it got as bad as it did there for a while was because of a single person who ignored the regulations they were trying to put in place (story here: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALT...dex.html). We're undertesting and have still passed them for number of cases (people are still being turned away who have many of the symptoms, because the tests are being saved for people who are extremely sick or who have had contact with a confirmed case...but because they're not testing everyone there are fewer confirmed cases which means there will be fewer links and they keep testing no one except the very ill). They also have the lowest mortality rate because they slowed the spread to the point where hospitals didn't get overwhelmed. The opposite of what we're seeing in most European and American countries.

Imagine what it would look like if literally every country responded that way rather than just blaming China.

There are two things wrong here:
1. The immediate discussion was about fault. That plainly lies with China.
2. What other countries have and haven't done and your political beliefs over it are for the Spin Room as the OP here is about whether we might lose the 2020 football season due to the virus outbreak and spread and is not intended on this board to deal with the political fallout.

And that's all need be said for the purposes of this thread.

Why are you jumping on me and not the guy who posted this bull****: "Well they created it, so they can stop it."

Which is an obviously untrue and dangerous statement that has nothing to do with the topic? (if you want to say they created it, whatever, don't go out saying they can stop it...that pushes WELL beyond fault)

My initial statements were about how China's slowing rate of infection has nothing to do with ours because we have different responses. So we shouldn't assume the season will be back on based on their current trajectory (which is not ours, which is still exponential). All of my statements can be tied to whether or not a season will happen later this year, because all of my statements are about the rate of spread within this country and others.

If you don't want people bringing in their politics or personal beliefs, lead by example and don't post things like this. It'll make people think other stuff is fair game.
JRsec Wrote:But you won't hear it on the MSM because they need the crisis and the TDS heading into the election.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2020 02:36 PM by e-parade.)
03-19-2020 02:33 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #128
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 02:33 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:07 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:20 PM)e-parade Wrote:  This is an extremely terrible statement and no one should ever make it. It's going to lead to increased anger and eventually violence against people of Asian heritage.

They were the first to get infected with it and the first to have people die from it. The rest of the world mostly got it from tourists traveling to China, and not people from China traveling to other places. In fact, most of the spread for the rest of the world originated in the Italian outbreak of it.

They haven't stopped it. They've slowed it to the point where they can say they've now "flattened the curve" (what the rest of the world needs to do). They, along with South Korea and a few others, knew what to do because they learned from the SARS epidemic and kept things in place from then.
Tourists did help to spread it. But it got out of Wuhan (the locus of their biological weapons research center) via the myriad of corporations which located their production facilities there. We know the Chinese sat on this for several weeks before admitting they had a problem and locking down travel to and from Wuhan.

Now whether this is a virus spread from pangolins or something else it got out precisely because of the initial handling of the outbreak, where silence was not the best response, but typical of the Chinese communist regime.

Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.

Their government didn't do great to start things off, but let's not pretend that our government didn't try to do the exact same thing here for a while.

There were literally statements declaring the magnitude of the issue as a hoax (I'm not saying the President ever said the virus itself was a hoax, he DID say that the projections for how bad it will get was a hoax by the Democrats as their next way to attack him).

South Korea had their first cases around the same time we did. Their response was to treat it seriously and start testing anyone and everyone, and then followed up on everyone who had contact with anyone who had tested positive. The only reason it got as bad as it did there for a while was because of a single person who ignored the regulations they were trying to put in place (story here: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALT...dex.html). We're undertesting and have still passed them for number of cases (people are still being turned away who have many of the symptoms, because the tests are being saved for people who are extremely sick or who have had contact with a confirmed case...but because they're not testing everyone there are fewer confirmed cases which means there will be fewer links and they keep testing no one except the very ill). They also have the lowest mortality rate because they slowed the spread to the point where hospitals didn't get overwhelmed. The opposite of what we're seeing in most European and American countries.

Imagine what it would look like if literally every country responded that way rather than just blaming China.

There are two things wrong here:
1. The immediate discussion was about fault. That plainly lies with China.
2. What other countries have and haven't done and your political beliefs over it are for the Spin Room as the OP here is about whether we might lose the 2020 football season due to the virus outbreak and spread and is not intended on this board to deal with the political fallout.

And that's all need be said for the purposes of this thread.

Why are you jumping on me and not the guy who posted this bull****: "Well they created it, so they can stop it."

Which is an obviously untrue and dangerous statement that has nothing to do with the topic? (if you want to say they created it, whatever, don't go out saying they can stop it...that pushes WELL beyond fault)

My initial statements were about how China's slowing rate of infection has nothing to do with ours because we have different responses. So we shouldn't assume the season will be back on based on their current trajectory (which is not ours, which is still exponential). All of my statements can be tied to whether or not a season will happen later this year, because all of my statements are about the rate of spread within this country and others.

If you don't want people bringing in their politics or personal beliefs, lead by example and don't post things like this. It'll make people think other stuff is fair game.
JRsec Wrote:But you won't hear it on the MSM because they need the crisis and the TDS heading into the election.

I'm jumping on you because you are trying to turn this thread into a political matter.

And you quoted me out of context from a post talking about what Australia is claiming cures the disease and what Northern Europe is doing to boost patients immunity through blood serum. The quip was about the lack of news stories on our networks. The implication was that their "news" is only bad, when there are some breakthroughs in the treatment of this illness.

Finally, when I say that's all for politics in the thread, I mean that's all.
03-19-2020 02:48 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #129
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Matt Hayes


@MattHayesCFB

Spoken to numerous #CFB Power 5 coaches in the last week. There is genuine concern that the CoVid timetable may eliminate the 2020 season.

8:04 AM - 19 Mar 2020 from Florida, USA
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2020 04:36 PM by TerryD.)
03-19-2020 04:36 PM
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Post: #130
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 02:31 PM)colohank Wrote:  Just for the sake of argument, how many schools could justify paying coaching staffs at current contract rates if the football season were cancelled and there were no on-field product to provide a revenue stream? How many coaches would agree to drastically reduced salaries? Would schools be obliged to honor athletic scholarships? How many kids would use cancellation of a season as an excuse to search for greener pastures?

I can envision huge games of musical chairs unfolding.

Great point.

Theoretically, what if a school lost its coach right now. Would you even hire a new coach at this point? It would probably be more fiscally responsible to go without a coach until the country opens back up, since the coach has almost nothing to do for the next few months at a bare minimum. If the season ends up being canceled completely, then you've saved yourself a few million.
03-19-2020 05:01 PM
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Post: #131
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 05:01 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:31 PM)colohank Wrote:  Just for the sake of argument, how many schools could justify paying coaching staffs at current contract rates if the football season were cancelled and there were no on-field product to provide a revenue stream? How many coaches would agree to drastically reduced salaries? Would schools be obliged to honor athletic scholarships? How many kids would use cancellation of a season as an excuse to search for greener pastures?

I can envision huge games of musical chairs unfolding.

Great point.

Theoretically, what if a school lost its coach right now. Would you even hire a new coach at this point? It would probably be more fiscally responsible to go without a coach until the country opens back up, since the coach has almost nothing to do for the next few months at a bare minimum. If the season ends up being canceled completely, then you've saved yourself a few million.

Continuity. You need a head coach even if you're not playing and recruiting is greatly hampered because they're the face of the program and at a time when donations will probably take a plunge, you need an avatar, someone who represents the program to the public. Plus there's still logistical things that need a head coach to perform, working on the playbook, figuring out how to keep your players fit when they're not in your possession, that sort of thing.
03-19-2020 05:31 PM
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Post: #132
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The very first confirmed case of the "Spanish flu" came from a military base in Kansas. So it was an escaped biological weapon too?
03-20-2020 09:01 AM
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Post: #133
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 02:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:33 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 02:07 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(03-19-2020 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Tourists did help to spread it. But it got out of Wuhan (the locus of their biological weapons research center) via the myriad of corporations which located their production facilities there. We know the Chinese sat on this for several weeks before admitting they had a problem and locking down travel to and from Wuhan.

Now whether this is a virus spread from pangolins or something else it got out precisely because of the initial handling of the outbreak, where silence was not the best response, but typical of the Chinese communist regime.

Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.

Their government didn't do great to start things off, but let's not pretend that our government didn't try to do the exact same thing here for a while.

There were literally statements declaring the magnitude of the issue as a hoax (I'm not saying the President ever said the virus itself was a hoax, he DID say that the projections for how bad it will get was a hoax by the Democrats as their next way to attack him).

South Korea had their first cases around the same time we did. Their response was to treat it seriously and start testing anyone and everyone, and then followed up on everyone who had contact with anyone who had tested positive. The only reason it got as bad as it did there for a while was because of a single person who ignored the regulations they were trying to put in place (story here: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALT...dex.html). We're undertesting and have still passed them for number of cases (people are still being turned away who have many of the symptoms, because the tests are being saved for people who are extremely sick or who have had contact with a confirmed case...but because they're not testing everyone there are fewer confirmed cases which means there will be fewer links and they keep testing no one except the very ill). They also have the lowest mortality rate because they slowed the spread to the point where hospitals didn't get overwhelmed. The opposite of what we're seeing in most European and American countries.

Imagine what it would look like if literally every country responded that way rather than just blaming China.

There are two things wrong here:
1. The immediate discussion was about fault. That plainly lies with China.
2. What other countries have and haven't done and your political beliefs over it are for the Spin Room as the OP here is about whether we might lose the 2020 football season due to the virus outbreak and spread and is not intended on this board to deal with the political fallout.

And that's all need be said for the purposes of this thread.

Why are you jumping on me and not the guy who posted this bull****: "Well they created it, so they can stop it."

Which is an obviously untrue and dangerous statement that has nothing to do with the topic? (if you want to say they created it, whatever, don't go out saying they can stop it...that pushes WELL beyond fault)

My initial statements were about how China's slowing rate of infection has nothing to do with ours because we have different responses. So we shouldn't assume the season will be back on based on their current trajectory (which is not ours, which is still exponential). All of my statements can be tied to whether or not a season will happen later this year, because all of my statements are about the rate of spread within this country and others.

If you don't want people bringing in their politics or personal beliefs, lead by example and don't post things like this. It'll make people think other stuff is fair game.
JRsec Wrote:But you won't hear it on the MSM because they need the crisis and the TDS heading into the election.

I'm jumping on you because you are trying to turn this thread into a political matter.

And you quoted me out of context from a post talking about what Australia is claiming cures the disease and what Northern Europe is doing to boost patients immunity through blood serum. The quip was about the lack of news stories on our networks. The implication was that their "news" is only bad, when there are some breakthroughs in the treatment of this illness.

Finally, when I say that's all for politics in the thread, I mean that's all.


Sorry, but there is no context in which the statement "But you won't hear about it on the MSM because they need the crisis and the TDS heading into the election." can be viewed as apolitical.

Anyway, here's hoping we all act reasonably and responsibly in an effort to return to normalcy, whenever that may be (hopefully soon enough for college football!)
03-20-2020 09:12 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #134
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-18-2020 09:52 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  I will not put any credence to this report, but this Nobel Prize winner, Israeli no less, believes that the end is nigh for this virus:

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israe...621145/amp

Noting the lack of credence put into this report, the question then becomes when did it really start in China? If it started as far back as November then it is about a six month period. That puts us looking at August/September. That is pretty close, but maybe a modified season of some sort still works: Every school gets six games total, starting October 1. For the SEC - you play your division.

That would annoy Georgia-Auburn fans and TN-Alabama fans, but it is fair at least for choosing winners, and on a one year deal in a weird situation, maybe people would understand - football fans are rational... right?
03-20-2020 11:24 AM
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Post: #135
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-19-2020 01:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Anyone with any sanity knows that Chinese people here or abroad are not responsible, but their government is if for no other reason than their lack of a quarantine from the site of origin originally accompanied by their notification of those who had left the region in the previous month. So they, the government of China, are to blame, period.

Certainly the government of the province of Wuhan bears a lot of blame for the global pandemic. But nobody in China is to blame for the difference in epidemic spread in the US and South Korea, which had their first cases on the same day.

As the author of that report noted, "But on February 7, something changed.", which was about 14 days after the closure of all public transportation and institution of serious quarantine measures in Wuhan. Concluding that a disease with an incubation period of 4-14 days had a natural decline in contagiousness because large number of people are immune ... 14 days after instituting far more wide-reaching social isolation than seems likely to be possible in the US and far more extensive testing and contact tracing than it seems we are likely to adopt in the US ... is a might optimistic conclusion.

As the article says, "his specialty is not in epidemiology". Those who buy that shifting from exponential growth to linear growth of a virus with an incubation period of one or two weeks, happened two weeks after the beginning of dramatic interventions aimed at reducing the spread of the disease were a mere coincidence do need to explain why among the countries with 100 or more cases, the epidemic has only flat-lined in a handful of countries and everywhere else it is growing at exponential rates.
03-21-2020 08:04 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #136
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

5 weeks later, Kirk Herbstreit is in agreement with JRsec.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...ason-2020/
03-27-2020 09:36 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #137
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Given that bookmakers in Las Vegas don't have much else to bet on these days, I wonder if they are taking bets on when CFB will resume. It would be interesting to see what odds they would put on that.
03-27-2020 11:05 AM
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Post: #138
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-27-2020 09:36 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

5 weeks later, Kirk Herbstreit is in agreement with JRsec.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...ason-2020/

Well, Kirk went to Ohio State... JR went to Auburn, so...
03-27-2020 11:27 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #139
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(03-27-2020 11:27 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-27-2020 09:36 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  5 weeks later, Kirk Herbstreit is in agreement with JRsec.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...ason-2020/

Well, Kirk went to Ohio State... JR went to Auburn, so...

Look at two extreme scenarios:
In scenario A, it rages out of control, so there will be hundreds of thousands to millions dead. A majority of the population might be exposed, but a large minority won't have been And we still have no firm idea how much immunity is conferred on recovery ... immunity to some of the coronaviruses that cause head colds seems to only be a matter of one to three years. So under that scenario it might be possible from an epidemiological perspective to start up football practice by September and have a shortened season by October, given an active testing and monitoring program to avoid flare ups ... but after experiencing the most traumatic of the various possible scenarios, it would probably be politically untenable for college football in particular.

In scenario B, effective social isolation is put in place for six weeks to two months, the time is used to get testing up to speed, get care facilities up to speed, get a serious contact tracing and testing system up to speed, and once we know how has it, who has had it, who is still at risk, and who has been in contact with those who are infectious, we can get serious about slowing the spread and keeping the total number infected at one time well within the capability of our medical system to cope with the seriously and critically ill percentages (of all ages) of roughly 20% and 5% of the infected ...
... which would happily prevent the deaths from getting up to the hundreds of thousands to millions levels, but also push the peak out to August or so. A lot of activities might be getting back toward normal with suitable precautions, but probably not getting many dozens of young men together to get ready for fall football, nor even less packing tens of thousands of people into stadiums to cheer on their football team.

So there are really multiple different pathways that get to the "no 2020 CFB season" outcome. Whether it's likely, I don't know. But it's certainly conceivable.
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2020 12:25 PM by BruceMcF.)
03-27-2020 12:22 PM
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Post: #140
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Until they start testing people to see if they’ve acquired immunity—as in they’ve had the virus and didn’t know it—we’re just chasing ghosts here. We really don’t know how many people are currently asymptomatic, and that is dangerous.
03-27-2020 12:35 PM
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