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Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 11:57 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 11:14 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!

Not that I think it's time yet to really start worrying but if you do want to do some prepping and you have critical medication like heart, blood pressure, insulin or what not you may want to consider buying an extra month or two supply. Most of that's not made in the US and the supply chains could get disrupted.

We're not hardcore preppers but have kept a month or two's worth of canned foods in the basement for the last few years. I'll be taking stock of it and shoring it up some time soon.

Sounds like earthquake preparedness here. Not that you have to prepare for those in Virginia...

I did have a guy try to sell me earthquake insurance once....I took my chances. Blizzards, floods, derechos, epidemics, civil war. You never know.
02-28-2020 12:24 PM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 11:02 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I looked up some stats about the death rate as of this morning:

In mainland China, the fatality rate is 3.53%. The rate of critical cases is 10.09%

In South Korea (by far the second biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 0.56%. The rate of critical cases is 0.43%

In Iran (which has the 3rd biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 8.76%. They're not reporting any critical cases.

Outside those three countries, the fatality rate is 1.44%. The rate of critical cases is 5.49%.



This makes me think that China and Iran might be underreporting the number of mild cases. That makes the death rate look a lot larger than it actually is.

This is actually incorrect, and mortality rate won't be calculable for a while. To get the most accurate stats, you need to compare the death rate to the overall completed cases rate (because anyone still sick could either recover or die).

The worldwide death vs. recovery rate is currently 7.25% and in China it's 7.1%.

The number will probably go down a bit, as some of the longer lasting cases are likely people who are progressing nicely toward recovery. But we're currently at 20% of the active cases in China being marked as "Serious/Critical" so it could also actually go up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...eath-rate/
Quote:At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
02-28-2020 12:35 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 12:35 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 11:02 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I looked up some stats about the death rate as of this morning:

In mainland China, the fatality rate is 3.53%. The rate of critical cases is 10.09%

In South Korea (by far the second biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 0.56%. The rate of critical cases is 0.43%

In Iran (which has the 3rd biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 8.76%. They're not reporting any critical cases.

Outside those three countries, the fatality rate is 1.44%. The rate of critical cases is 5.49%.



This makes me think that China and Iran might be underreporting the number of mild cases. That makes the death rate look a lot larger than it actually is.

This is actually incorrect, and mortality rate won't be calculable for a while. To get the most accurate stats, you need to compare the death rate to the overall completed cases rate (because anyone still sick could either recover or die).

The worldwide death vs. recovery rate is currently 7.25% and in China it's 7.1%.

The number will probably go down a bit, as some of the longer lasting cases are likely people who are progressing nicely toward recovery. But we're currently at 20% of the active cases in China being marked as "Serious/Critical" so it could also actually go up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...eath-rate/
Quote:At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

China's Center for Disease Control did a study of roughly 72K and came up with 2.3%. This is the best scientifically performed study we currently have. The numbers in Iran, Italy and S Korea are still to limited to have statistical value.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti...death-rate
02-28-2020 12:59 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
This virus appears to hit the old and/or immune impaired more. The good news it doesn't hit children fatally in any large numbers.

There should be an immunization within 12-18 months. Some think as soon as next Fall.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 01:50 PM by TexanMark.)
02-28-2020 01:49 PM
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Post: #65
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 07:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Zero reason to believe that. In a limited outbreak --- its mortality may very well be lower than other countries here because of superior care -- but it wont be less than the flu. I'd also tell you that a truly wide spread breakout where millions are infected would likely overwhelm the healthcare system to the point that the care provided probably wouldnt meet our current expectations for care. That superior care advantage might degrade pretty quickly.

Yes ... being able to build a dedicated Covid19 hospital in a couple of weeks and then another in the next week is more a Chinese kind of capability than a US one. That kind of capability is part of how the Chinese became the largest economy in the world in real terms over the past decade. Different economies have different advantages and disadvantages.

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(02-25-2020 06:42 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 06:18 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing was stopped with the bird flu scare, the Ebola virus scare and the corona virus scare won’t cause a stopping of college football.

Not comparable, at this point.

Ebola is not an airborne virus
The Bird Flu was not an airborne virus.

Coronavirus is airborne, and a person can have it and not display symptoms.

Note that Covid19 is not, strictly speaking airborne in the manner of some viruses. Rather, like a cold virus, it is spread in the aerosol droplets people spray into the air when they cough or sneeze. And that is part of why coronavirus colds (for the varieties that attach the nasal cavities rather than the lungs) ebb during the summer months, because the warmer weather tend to dry those aerosol droplets out faster ... whether in the air or after they have settled on a surface. If the R is 2-3 during the cold weather months, it can easily drop down below 1 when there's a heat wave, just because so many more aerosol born viruses have their droplets dry out and the virus break down before it is passed on.

That's also why the Chinese authorities here are so strict about people wearing masks in public but aren't so strict about which kind of masks you where ... since you can have it and spread the virus while asymptomatic, the disposable surgical type masks somewhat reduces your risk of catching it but also substantially reduces how effective you are at spreading it if you have it. And they are a lot cheaper and easier to ramp up production than pm2.5 protective masks, which we normally are more used to just wearing on days when the air pollution is very bad.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 02:42 PM by BruceMcF.)
02-28-2020 02:27 PM
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Tigeer Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......

Been to any HS Basketball games in Mouth of Wilson. It's in Grayson County, yes?
02-28-2020 02:29 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 12:59 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 12:35 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 11:02 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I looked up some stats about the death rate as of this morning:

In mainland China, the fatality rate is 3.53%. The rate of critical cases is 10.09%

In South Korea (by far the second biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 0.56%. The rate of critical cases is 0.43%

In Iran (which has the 3rd biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 8.76%. They're not reporting any critical cases.

Outside those three countries, the fatality rate is 1.44%. The rate of critical cases is 5.49%.



This makes me think that China and Iran might be underreporting the number of mild cases. That makes the death rate look a lot larger than it actually is.

This is actually incorrect, and mortality rate won't be calculable for a while. To get the most accurate stats, you need to compare the death rate to the overall completed cases rate (because anyone still sick could either recover or die).

The worldwide death vs. recovery rate is currently 7.25% and in China it's 7.1%.

The number will probably go down a bit, as some of the longer lasting cases are likely people who are progressing nicely toward recovery. But we're currently at 20% of the active cases in China being marked as "Serious/Critical" so it could also actually go up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...eath-rate/
Quote:At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

China's Center for Disease Control did a study of roughly 72K and came up with 2.3%. This is the best scientifically performed study we currently have. The numbers in Iran, Italy and S Korea are still to limited to have statistical value.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti...death-rate

So...

...if the fatality rate ends up being close to 7% - and efforts to prevent the spread of the disease are not soon/effective enough - we'd be talking 546 million dead worldwide. Think total populations of USA + Mexico + Canada + Colombia, all combined. (or if you prefer, USA + Russia + UK + Ireland)

...if it's more like 2% fatality, we're still talking 156 million dead - unless it can be stopped, of course. About the population of Russia.

That's a lot of people either way. Not "THE" Great Tribulation, but a great big tribulation nonetheless.
02-28-2020 02:44 PM
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Post: #68
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Who is Covid19? I'm searching the forum and can't find any user with that name.
02-28-2020 03:11 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 03:11 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Who is Covid19? I'm searching the forum and can't find any user with that name.

Well, we have a lot of viruses posing as posters. We just don't bother to give them designated identification tags. Banning is so much easier and they don't need to be remembered.
02-28-2020 03:24 PM
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Post: #70
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Stock market is in the trash.

My advice is dont go back in stocks until it finishes 3 sessions at 5% above today's low of 24,681.

It may grind down another 1,000+ points next week albeit in less dramatic fashion.
02-28-2020 03:56 PM
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Post: #71
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 03:29 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yes, it's inconceivable to me. We played college football two weeks after a major terrorist attack and played throughout WWII when most college aged men were in the army. CFB will go on

Neither of those events were communicable. Significant difference.
02-28-2020 04:10 PM
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Post: #72
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
I looked up the Spanish Flu numbers. Assuming a similar rate of infection BUT only 1/4th the death rate (very plausible given we now have anti-viral drugs, and superior ability to support hydration, respiration and blood pressure), you still end up with just over a half million dead in the US. That's a huge hit and given that most victims are likely older, you are looking at a large wealth transfer and a huge strain on the ability to make and move goods.
02-28-2020 04:15 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 12:04 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 03:29 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yes, it's inconceivable to me. We played college football two weeks after a major terrorist attack and played throughout WWII when most college aged men were in the army. CFB will go on

Neither of those situations is remotely the same thing.

There was no disruption during the 1919 Influenza epidemic either

Like I said, I cannot conceive it halting a CFB season.
02-28-2020 04:26 PM
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 04:26 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 12:04 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 03:29 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yes, it's inconceivable to me. We played college football two weeks after a major terrorist attack and played throughout WWII when most college aged men were in the army. CFB will go on

Neither of those situations is remotely the same thing.

There was no disruption during the 1919 Influenza epidemic either

Like I said, I cannot conceive it halting a CFB season.

Because it was on the opposite side of year (September) from when Spanish influenza peaked (March). It's literally the only time one of the 4 major sports canceled its championship in a non-labor dispute.
02-28-2020 04:47 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 04:26 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 12:04 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 03:29 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yes, it's inconceivable to me. We played college football two weeks after a major terrorist attack and played throughout WWII when most college aged men were in the army. CFB will go on

Neither of those situations is remotely the same thing.

There was no disruption during the 1919 Influenza epidemic either

Like I said, I cannot conceive it halting a CFB season.

No disruptions? It essentially ended WWI because it decimated the Armies on both sides and the Kaiser couldn't see the point in continuing.

I actually knew people who survived it. There were plenty of disruptions in the cities, but it was to bury the dead. They didn't have the understanding of the transmission, incubation, and pathology to know enough to stop.

In rural areas people simply tried to stay away from the cities, but they would eventually need supplies, or perhaps their town was on a rail line and people on the train would get off to stretch their legs and get a bite to eat off of the train and would spread it that way.

I visited one little country church cemetery while getting ready for the funeral of a friend and walked through it because there were confederate graves in it (the headstones are unique) and came across the area where about 18 people all died within a a few months of each other in 1918 including half a dozen infants and children. When I questioned some of the locals about it they said they had traveled into town to buy seeds and supplies and clothes and had brought it back to their community and how it had gone through their church.

It's real enough and just because they didn't really know enough about the transmission back then to take severe measures to reduce the mortality is hardly an endorsement for similar conduct today.

Let me ask you a serious question. If somebody handed you a soft drink and told you there was a 1 in 50 chance that if you drank it you would die, would you drink it? Only if you were an idiot.

So if you go into a crowd sufficiently large enough to virtually guarantee that it would spread a potentially lethal disease for which there is no vaccine and the only survivability would depend upon the strength of you own immune system,and that merely catching it whether you lived or died meant that the small children in your family and your elderly parents or grandparents might die from exposure to you, would you be selfish and thoughtless enough to risk not only your own health but the health of those you loved?

I sure hope not. And 2% is the lowest estimate on mortality for this outbreak, and it is reaching pandemic status not because of the number of cases currently but because of the rapidity with which it has spread. It's serious enough.

I don't get people sometimes. You all get your panties in a wad over a hurricane or lightening (which has practically a nil mortality rate in a modern stadium because you are in a faraday cage due to construction), and so you support calling off or postponing games because of that, but nobody grasps the reality that the potential for death and economic devastation from a pandemic dwarfs that of the aforementioned.

Unglaublich!
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 05:31 PM by JRsec.)
02-28-2020 04:58 PM
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Post: #76
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 02:29 PM)Tigeer Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......

Been to any HS Basketball games in Mouth of Wilson. It's in Grayson County, yes?



No, not yet. Yes, we live in Grayson County.

Oak Hill Academy is like 3 miles from my house.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 05:21 PM by TerryD.)
02-28-2020 05:21 PM
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Post: #77
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 03:56 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Stock market is in the trash.

My advice is dont go back in stocks until it finishes 3 sessions at 5% above today's low of 24,681.

It may grind down another 1,000+ points next week albeit in less dramatic fashion.

I suspect there will be dead cat bounces, but I think this thing is going to slowly grind downward for several months because there is going to be a daily series of cascading economic setbacks as the world deals with this mess. This isnt something that will resolve in a few weeks with a fed move or with a budget deal. This is a negative influence that will persist. It will be around a while and it end when it ends. Furthermore---If we have to go 12-18 months (before the vaccine arrives insufficient quantity) with greatly reduced world wide economic activity---that will have a whole separate fall out that will change the current economic environment. There are a crap load of people living check to check that cant handle a 12-18 month slow down. There are lots of business's that dont really have the financial strength to wait out a 12-18 months slow down. Thus, the idea that everything will pick right back up where we left off when the vaccine arrives in 12-18 months could be a little overly optimistic.

I have every confidence the stock market will recover---but it may take longer than many currently believe--depending on the extent of the economic damage we see in the coming months.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 09:46 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-28-2020 09:33 PM
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Post: #78
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 04:15 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I looked up the Spanish Flu numbers. Assuming a similar rate of infection BUT only 1/4th the death rate (very plausible given we now have anti-viral drugs, and superior ability to support hydration, respiration and blood pressure), you still end up with just over a half million dead in the US. That's a huge hit and given that most victims are likely older, you are looking at a large wealth transfer and a huge strain on the ability to make and move goods.

Its not the aggregate numbers with this one as much as the impossible to predict flare ups. One day you have 1 case in a city and overnight it becomes 1,000.

Markets have taken a beating. To start grinding back up they can't have a mushroom of COVID-19 cases pop up in a supplying nation's back yard every week.

The V-shaped recovery prediction to me is wishful thinking. Central banks are already pinned down with negative rates so they don't have much to offer. News items over the virus are slow dripping out. The concern is a supply shock and a demand shock. There is no easy alternative to sourcing when it takes years to relocate a supply chain and most of the case growth is now happening outside of China rather than in.

Middle east countries are gaining cases. You've got think they'll have inept, illl prepared ways of dealing with a medical crisis.
02-28-2020 10:07 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 09:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 03:56 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Stock market is in the trash.

My advice is dont go back in stocks until it finishes 3 sessions at 5% above today's low of 24,681.

It may grind down another 1,000+ points next week albeit in less dramatic fashion.

I suspect there will be dead cat bounces, but I think this thing is going to slowly grind downward for several months because there is going to be a daily series of cascading economic setbacks as the world deals with this mess. This isnt something that will resolve in a few weeks with a fed move or with a budget deal. This is a negative influence that will persist. It will be around a while and it end when it ends. Furthermore---If we have to go 12-18 months (before the vaccine arrives insufficient quantity) with greatly reduced world wide economic activity---that will have a whole separate fall out that will change the current economic environment. There are a crap load of people living check to check that cant handle a 12-18 month slow down. There are lots of business's that dont really have the financial strength to wait out a 12-18 months slow down. Thus, the idea that everything will pick right back up where we left off when the vaccine arrives in 12-18 months could be a little overly optimistic.

I have every confidence the stock market will recover---but it may take longer than many currently believe--depending on the extent of the economic damage we see in the coming months.

It seems like a slow grind will happen. There wasn't one dead cat bounce day all week which is scary. Tech hasn't been as sensitive to it because of all the algorithm trading systems that are trained to buy the minute a relative strength indicator shows some life.

The problem is Global GDP is predicted to eek by with only 3% as it was so it can't afford even a 1% impact without pushing most of the western countries into recession.

With employment even a slight revision downward is an excuse to pull back on investment. The V everyone should be talking about is the unemployment rate bouncing back up quickly causing a recession to snowball.

I've been in bonds since the European Central Bank cut in September. Not because I thought I'd make a lot in bonds but there was little fundamental risk of the 10 year treasury yield moving above 2.0 whereas I didn't trust the market to go without a correction for too long. I just didn't see a good entry point on the broader market (but I was kind of wrong as the Dow moved to 29,500). Regardless I was never down more than 2% in that bond position and of course I'm now at the all time high.

Its just hard to say how big the effect will be at this point. Oil is a little different because OPEC can huddle in a room and make a production cut to buoy prices. A decision can come out pretty quickly. Central bank moves and stimulus can take time.
02-28-2020 10:31 PM
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Post: #80
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 03:11 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Who is Covid19? I'm searching the forum and can't find any user with that name.
Covid-19 is the name they eventually gave to the virus. "Coronavirus" is a general class of viruses. Calling this virus "the Coronavirus" is like calling Joe Montana "a former high school quarterback who was recruited by Notre Dame" ... it's true, but not very specific, and given that most varieties of coronavirus just cause common colds, it kind of misses a lot.

Or are you saying, "haha, he left out the dash", on a site where people leave out the "U" in USC and expect it to be understood that SC is not the university in the state abbreviated SC? We normally leave the dash out in Chinese social media because hash tags normally break at punctuation. Obviously the news shows leave the dash in.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 11:04 PM by BruceMcF.)
02-28-2020 10:54 PM
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