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Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
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dbackjon Online
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Post: #41
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 05:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 05:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:31 PM)colohank Wrote:  In the interest of public safety, I urge everyone to wash hands frequently and to stop eating bats, particularly uncooked or undercooked ones, until this scourge has been brought under control or eliminated. Bats are a known reservoir and vector for the novel Corona virus.

Dang I picked the wrong time to invest in a Kentucky Fried Bat franchise.

Hope my Louisiana Fried Pangolin outlet is safe.

Pangolin is best served in Gumbo.


Noted. Will add that to the menu.
02-27-2020 05:31 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #42
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
So this could happen---college football as a TV only event. In Japan, fans have been banned from the 72 remaining pre-season games of their professional baseball league due to fears of coronovirus. Right now---the regular season is a go---at least for now... Japan has also shut down all schools for a month.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/japanese-b...rus-fears/
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 06:14 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-27-2020 06:00 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
My brother-in-law is a pharmacist in a college town with a large Chinese population. He told me four weeks ago that they kept selling out of facemasks as soon as they get put on the shelves because Chinese students would buy them and ship them back to their parents. Most brands of facemasks are probably made in China anyways...

Funny because normal surgical masks don't actually prevent you from getting sick (their primary use is on sick people to keep them from getting others infected).
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 09:43 PM by Captain Bearcat.)
02-27-2020 09:30 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 12:10 PM)grubs Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 11:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Don't go to either extreme on this.

Don't panic and think you can't go out of your house at all.

Don't dismiss it as "no big deal" either.

Exercise caution, and take the threat seriously.

We do have a historical reference: the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. Worldwide it killed more people than WWI. There's an entire cemetery in my home town that filled with victims of that disease. Your town may have one like it - although no one talked about ours, so I doubt they talk about yours... but I'll guarantee you someone in your town died from the Spanish Flu. To this day, no one really knows what it was - it could even be the same pathogen as the Coronavirus for all we know.

1918 was H1N1. We've sequenced it from the graves. Bacterial Pneumonia after infection was the real killer then. Cov19 will likely follow other viral outbreaks and have an 18 month spread. We know it's very infectious. r0 might be at 7. Bump this spring which will be knocked down as the weather in the NH warms. Returning in the Fall and Spring until 70-80% will have been exposed. The CFRs are likely very high compared to actual due to large numbers of mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested. I've seen the CFR as low as .23% which is bad but no where near 10% or even 2%.

Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).

They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.
02-27-2020 09:41 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 12:10 PM)grubs Wrote:  1918 was H1N1. We've sequenced it from the graves. Bacterial Pneumonia after infection was the real killer then. Cov19 will likely follow other viral outbreaks and have an 18 month spread. We know it's very infectious. r0 might be at 7. Bump this spring which will be knocked down as the weather in the NH warms. Returning in the Fall and Spring until 70-80% will have been exposed. The CFRs are likely very high compared to actual due to large numbers of mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested. I've seen the CFR as low as .23% which is bad but no where near 10% or even 2%.

Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).

They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!
02-27-2020 09:47 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).

They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 10:18 PM by TerryD.)
02-27-2020 10:14 PM
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Statefan Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......

You better keep an eye on that crowd from Fries, they might come up the river for you. 04-cheers
02-27-2020 10:42 PM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The coronavirus is a real worry, not only on here, but where I work as well and even at the gas station, someone was talking to the cashier and another customer about the coronavirus. Unfortunately, I won't be able to telework, given my job is unloading trucks and/or stocking shelves, and I live in a good sized city that may or may not have illegal immigrants. Regardless, there is a huge Latino/Latina population where I live. And a lot of those folks like to shop where I work. In addition, my son is in public school, but he's in public school out in the county, away from the city. Regardless, I'm just going to have to trust in God to protect my son and I.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 01:11 AM by DawgNBama.)
02-28-2020 01:08 AM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 05:13 PM)Statefan Wrote:  IIRC the Southern Conference tournament and an ACC tournament were once played in a spectator quarantine. One for polio the other for measles

The old "ECAC North Atlantic" Conference - they played their 1989 tournament in front of no fans because of measles.

Siena won and then won an NCAA tourney game too, as a #14 seed, over Stanford.

Tournaments in front of no fans may have also happened with the SoCo and ACC too - though I couldn't find it in my research.
02-28-2020 01:51 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The virus will likely slow way down over the summer, and won't really ramp it up before Dec. So my guess is 2/3 of games will go on as usual. If there was a stop in crowds allowed, it would be late in season. As a borderline senior citizen, the odds of me dying would be much higher than those under the age of 55, It could be a huge financial blow short term, but by taking out many more who are elderly, it could actually help the SS/Medicare issue long term. Odds are if we can get thru next winter we will be ok, and will have a vaccine available. Then the herd health will be much improved.
02-28-2020 08:01 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

Good move - HOKIES Country!
02-28-2020 08:37 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 10:42 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......

You better keep an eye on that crowd from Fries, they might come up the river for you. 04-cheers

All 25 of them? Our place is surrounded on three sides by a mountain right next to us and on the fourth side by a rampart like high hill.

The gravel road is the only way in. This place is better protected and remote than Herschel's farm on The Walking Dead.

Perfect for any apocalypse.
02-28-2020 08:57 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 08:01 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The virus will likely slow way down over the summer, and won't really ramp it up before Dec. So my guess is 2/3 of games will go on as usual. If there was a stop in crowds allowed, it would be late in season. As a borderline senior citizen, the odds of me dying would be much higher than those under the age of 55, It could be a huge financial blow short term, but by taking out many more who are elderly, it could actually help the SS/Medicare issue long term. Odds are if we can get thru next winter we will be ok, and will have a vaccine available. Then the herd health will be much improved.

I root for the virus to take out people who hope it takes me out....... :)
02-28-2020 08:58 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
I looked up some stats about the death rate as of this morning:

In mainland China, the fatality rate is 3.53%. The rate of critical cases is 10.09%

In South Korea (by far the second biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 0.56%. The rate of critical cases is 0.43%

In Iran (which has the 3rd biggest outbreak), the fatality rate is 8.76%. They're not reporting any critical cases.

Outside those three countries, the fatality rate is 1.44%. The rate of critical cases is 5.49%.



This makes me think that China and Iran might be underreporting the number of mild cases. That makes the death rate look a lot larger than it actually is.
02-28-2020 11:02 AM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 08:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:42 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......

You better keep an eye on that crowd from Fries, they might come up the river for you. 04-cheers

All 25 of them? Our place is surrounded on three sides by a mountain right next to us and on the fourth side by a rampart like high hill.

The gravel road is the only way in. This place is better protected and remote than Herschel's farm on The Walking Dead.

Perfect for any apocalypse.

LOL, my inlaws are originally from Fries & Galax (moved to Richmond though and that's where my wife grew up). They still have family there and a few years ago bought a second home back there to go visit. We'll go down for a long weekend every now and then. It's nice cause there's nothing to do but walk by the river. They are the nosiest most gossipy people I've ever encountered though. It's pretty funny.
02-28-2020 11:08 AM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).

They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!

Not that I think it's time yet to really start worrying but if you do want to do some prepping and you have critical medication like heart, blood pressure, insulin or what not you may want to consider buying an extra month or two supply. Most of that's not made in the US and the supply chains could get disrupted.

We're not hardcore preppers but have kept a month or two's worth of canned foods in the basement for the last few years. I'll be taking stock of it and shoring it up some time soon.
02-28-2020 11:14 AM
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dbackjon Online
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Post: #57
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 11:14 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!

Not that I think it's time yet to really start worrying but if you do want to do some prepping and you have critical medication like heart, blood pressure, insulin or what not you may want to consider buying an extra month or two supply. Most of that's not made in the US and the supply chains could get disrupted.

We're not hardcore preppers but have kept a month or two's worth of canned foods in the basement for the last few years. I'll be taking stock of it and shoring it up some time soon.

Don't forget the TP!
02-28-2020 11:56 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 11:14 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!

Not that I think it's time yet to really start worrying but if you do want to do some prepping and you have critical medication like heart, blood pressure, insulin or what not you may want to consider buying an extra month or two supply. Most of that's not made in the US and the supply chains could get disrupted.

We're not hardcore preppers but have kept a month or two's worth of canned foods in the basement for the last few years. I'll be taking stock of it and shoring it up some time soon.

Sounds like earthquake preparedness here. Not that you have to prepare for those in Virginia...
02-28-2020 11:57 AM
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TripleA Online
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Post: #59
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 03:29 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yes, it's inconceivable to me. We played college football two weeks after a major terrorist attack and played throughout WWII when most college aged men were in the army. CFB will go on

Neither of those situations is remotely the same thing.
02-28-2020 12:04 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-28-2020 11:08 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:57 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:42 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!


I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......

You better keep an eye on that crowd from Fries, they might come up the river for you. 04-cheers

All 25 of them? Our place is surrounded on three sides by a mountain right next to us and on the fourth side by a rampart like high hill.

The gravel road is the only way in. This place is better protected and remote than Herschel's farm on The Walking Dead.

Perfect for any apocalypse.

LOL, my inlaws are originally from Fries & Galax (moved to Richmond though and that's where my wife grew up). They still have family there and a few years ago bought a second home back there to go visit. We'll go down for a long weekend every now and then. It's nice cause there's nothing to do but walk by the river. They are the nosiest most gossipy people I've ever encountered though. It's pretty funny.

We have been finding that out, lol...
02-28-2020 12:08 PM
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