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Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
If the outbreak is bad enough to warrant calling off games, then there's also going to be serious ramifications on our day-to-day life that play out before we get to that point. Telework will be a lot more common, travel restrictions are a possibility, and people will be less likely to go out for fear of infection. Of course, one sick Uber Eats guy could still doom us all.

I do think you have to gameplan even the most unlikely scenarios. There's no reason to make it front-of-mind but all athletic organizations should at least be batting around contingency plans and thinking about what-ifs while keeping an eye on the virus's progression.
02-25-2020 08:03 PM
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bullet Online
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Post: #22
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
50 million died in 1918-19. With the same rate, that would be almost 200 million with today's world population.
02-25-2020 08:48 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
"Only those are fit to live who do not fear to die; and none are fit to die who have shrunk from the joy of life and the duty of life. Life and death are parts of the same Great Adventure." T. Roosevelt, from an essay in The Atlantic he wrote in response to a letter of condolence he received when his youngest son Quentin was shot down over Europe in 1918.
02-25-2020 11:09 PM
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indianasniff Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The United States does not have a test approved by the CDC that has been distributed to health departments to administer. So we are not really testing for it.

But if you drum up enough fear you can shut down an economy in a hurry.
02-26-2020 08:38 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The Six Nations rugby game in Dublin between Ireland and Italy was cancelled because of this virus.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/rugby-u...ssion=true
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2020 09:54 AM by TerryD.)
02-26-2020 09:52 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?

02-26-2020 10:57 AM
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Hokie Mark Online
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Post: #27
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  50 million died in 1918-19. With the same rate, that would be almost 200 million with today's world population.

Don't go to either extreme on this.

Don't panic and think you can't go out of your house at all.

Don't dismiss it as "no big deal" either.

Exercise caution, and take the threat seriously.

We do have a historical reference: the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. Worldwide it killed more people than WWI. There's an entire cemetery in my home town that filled with victims of that disease. Your town may have one like it - although no one talked about ours, so I doubt they talk about yours... but I'll guarantee you someone in your town died from the Spanish Flu. To this day, no one really knows what it was - it could even be the same pathogen as the Coronavirus for all we know.
02-26-2020 11:05 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
For some reason, I basically agree with Trump, I think this disease is just going to run its course over the next few months and then things will settle back down.

We shall see.
02-26-2020 11:23 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-26-2020 11:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  For some reason, I basically agree with Trump, I think this disease is just going to run its course over the next few months and then things will settle back down.

We shall see.

That may happen, but if it does, like the flu, it will return in the fall.
02-26-2020 11:32 AM
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grubs Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-26-2020 11:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  50 million died in 1918-19. With the same rate, that would be almost 200 million with today's world population.

Don't go to either extreme on this.

Don't panic and think you can't go out of your house at all.

Don't dismiss it as "no big deal" either.

Exercise caution, and take the threat seriously.

We do have a historical reference: the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. Worldwide it killed more people than WWI. There's an entire cemetery in my home town that filled with victims of that disease. Your town may have one like it - although no one talked about ours, so I doubt they talk about yours... but I'll guarantee you someone in your town died from the Spanish Flu. To this day, no one really knows what it was - it could even be the same pathogen as the Coronavirus for all we know.

1918 was H1N1. We've sequenced it from the graves. Bacterial Pneumonia after infection was the real killer then. Cov19 will likely follow other viral outbreaks and have an 18 month spread. We know it's very infectious. r0 might be at 7. Bump this spring which will be knocked down as the weather in the NH warms. Returning in the Fall and Spring until 70-80% will have been exposed. The CFRs are likely very high compared to actual due to large numbers of mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested. I've seen the CFR as low as .23% which is bad but no where near 10% or even 2%.
02-26-2020 12:10 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-26-2020 12:10 PM)grubs Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 11:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  50 million died in 1918-19. With the same rate, that would be almost 200 million with today's world population.

Don't go to either extreme on this.

Don't panic and think you can't go out of your house at all.

Don't dismiss it as "no big deal" either.

Exercise caution, and take the threat seriously.

We do have a historical reference: the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. Worldwide it killed more people than WWI. There's an entire cemetery in my home town that filled with victims of that disease. Your town may have one like it - although no one talked about ours, so I doubt they talk about yours... but I'll guarantee you someone in your town died from the Spanish Flu. To this day, no one really knows what it was - it could even be the same pathogen as the Coronavirus for all we know.

1918 was H1N1. We've sequenced it from the graves. Bacterial Pneumonia after infection was the real killer then. Cov19 will likely follow other viral outbreaks and have an 18 month spread. We know it's very infectious. r0 might be at 7. Bump this spring which will be knocked down as the weather in the NH warms. Returning in the Fall and Spring until 70-80% will have been exposed. The CFRs are likely very high compared to actual due to large numbers of mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested. I've seen the CFR as low as .23% which is bad but no where near 10% or even 2%.

Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2020 01:47 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-26-2020 01:42 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #32
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-26-2020 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 12:10 PM)grubs Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 11:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  50 million died in 1918-19. With the same rate, that would be almost 200 million with today's world population.

Don't go to either extreme on this.

Don't panic and think you can't go out of your house at all.

Don't dismiss it as "no big deal" either.

Exercise caution, and take the threat seriously.

We do have a historical reference: the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. Worldwide it killed more people than WWI. There's an entire cemetery in my home town that filled with victims of that disease. Your town may have one like it - although no one talked about ours, so I doubt they talk about yours... but I'll guarantee you someone in your town died from the Spanish Flu. To this day, no one really knows what it was - it could even be the same pathogen as the Coronavirus for all we know.

1918 was H1N1. We've sequenced it from the graves. Bacterial Pneumonia after infection was the real killer then. Cov19 will likely follow other viral outbreaks and have an 18 month spread. We know it's very infectious. r0 might be at 7. Bump this spring which will be knocked down as the weather in the NH warms. Returning in the Fall and Spring until 70-80% will have been exposed. The CFRs are likely very high compared to actual due to large numbers of mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested. I've seen the CFR as low as .23% which is bad but no where near 10% or even 2%.

Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).

They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.
02-26-2020 02:23 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 01:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 12:10 PM)grubs Wrote:  
(02-26-2020 11:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  50 million died in 1918-19. With the same rate, that would be almost 200 million with today's world population.

Don't go to either extreme on this.

Don't panic and think you can't go out of your house at all.

Don't dismiss it as "no big deal" either.

Exercise caution, and take the threat seriously.

We do have a historical reference: the Spanish Flu of 1918-19. Worldwide it killed more people than WWI. There's an entire cemetery in my home town that filled with victims of that disease. Your town may have one like it - although no one talked about ours, so I doubt they talk about yours... but I'll guarantee you someone in your town died from the Spanish Flu. To this day, no one really knows what it was - it could even be the same pathogen as the Coronavirus for all we know.

1918 was H1N1. We've sequenced it from the graves. Bacterial Pneumonia after infection was the real killer then. Cov19 will likely follow other viral outbreaks and have an 18 month spread. We know it's very infectious. r0 might be at 7. Bump this spring which will be knocked down as the weather in the NH warms. Returning in the Fall and Spring until 70-80% will have been exposed. The CFRs are likely very high compared to actual due to large numbers of mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested. I've seen the CFR as low as .23% which is bad but no where near 10% or even 2%.

Even if everything you say is correct---the fact its so much more infectious means it would probably kill more. That said---I think you are almost certainly underestimating it. You dont close down entire cities over the flu. China locked down over 70 million people over this virus. China has allowed its entire economy to nearly grind to a halt---and continues to do so. China deals with the flu every single year---so why such a different reaction to this virus? One thing you are correct on---the real killer is the pneumonia (but I dont think its bacterial this time around).

They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 03:33 PM by JRsec.)
02-26-2020 02:34 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Yes, it's inconceivable to me. We played college football two weeks after a major terrorist attack and played throughout WWII when most college aged men were in the army. CFB will go on
02-27-2020 03:29 PM
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ChrisLords Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
I went to a college basketball game last night. So, clearly I'm not concerned else I wouldn't have gone.

I don't think we have any thing to worry about.
02-27-2020 03:47 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
When it reaches 60K+ and passes flu deaths in the US, I will start to worry.
02-27-2020 04:00 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
In the interest of public safety, I urge everyone to wash hands frequently and to stop eating bats, particularly uncooked or undercooked ones, until this scourge has been brought under control or eliminated. Bats are a known reservoir and vector for the novel Corona virus.
02-27-2020 04:31 PM
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Statefan Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
IIRC the Southern Conference tournament and an ACC tournament were once played in a spectator quarantine. One for polio the other for measles
02-27-2020 05:13 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 04:31 PM)colohank Wrote:  In the interest of public safety, I urge everyone to wash hands frequently and to stop eating bats, particularly uncooked or undercooked ones, until this scourge has been brought under control or eliminated. Bats are a known reservoir and vector for the novel Corona virus.

Dang I picked the wrong time to invest in a Kentucky Fried Bat franchise.

Hope my Louisiana Fried Pangolin outlet is safe.
02-27-2020 05:19 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-27-2020 05:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(02-27-2020 04:31 PM)colohank Wrote:  In the interest of public safety, I urge everyone to wash hands frequently and to stop eating bats, particularly uncooked or undercooked ones, until this scourge has been brought under control or eliminated. Bats are a known reservoir and vector for the novel Corona virus.

Dang I picked the wrong time to invest in a Kentucky Fried Bat franchise.

Hope my Louisiana Fried Pangolin outlet is safe.

Pangolin is best served in Gumbo.
02-27-2020 05:20 PM
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