(02-24-2020 10:35 AM)odu09 Wrote: This question is really broad and others have addressed it well. Many people have already said what I'm about to say. Just a reminder: we are in a one-bid league with a SOS in the 150s. Last year SOS was 233. Having stated that, my minimum would be:
(1) One conference championship every 4 years (has JJ accomplished this in his 7 years? yes, but this means he needs another one next year)
I think it's a reasonable goal but not a reasonable expectation, because despite what people may think about CUSA, there's always a few quality programs in there at ODU's level. In the time since the current CUSA took form, Middle Tennessee is the only program with more than one tournament title — and they're not likely to get back there any time soon. WKU, which has at least as good a claim as ODU at expectations of excellence, has zero titles. The distribution of good teams in a given year makes it difficult for anyone to win one title every four years. Definitely something you'd hope for but I think the makeup of the conference makes it a lot more difficult than you're imagining it would be.
Quote:(2) Two NIT appearances every 4 years (has JJ accomplished this in his 7 years? no)
There aren't going to be too many programs in Division 1 that can have three years of NCAA/NIT out of every four. Basically it's the power programs and the schools like New Mexico State that can bully their overmatched conference. Especially coming out of a one-bid conference. In all likelihood, the only school in Virginia to be able to do that at the end of the season will be Virginia.
Quote:(3) A down year means .500 or better (has JJ accomplished this? not unless he wins the next 3 games plus 3 games in the CUSAT).
"Down year" is nebulous, because there's people here who would point to a number of JJ's 20-plus win seasons and call them "down years." VCU is still going to have 20 wins this season but they're definitely having a down year for a senior-laden team that landed in the Top 25 early on. If you're saying that ODU should never ever go under .500 ever, well, if North Carolina can do it, I don't think ODU is exempt from it.
Quote:(4) A solid recruiting class every year. This one is a little harder to define.
I wish basketball fans as a whole would slow their roll on recruiting classes because a) star rankings are variable and inherently yoked to the eye of the beholder, and b) the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Four-star recruits crap out, and no-star recruits become legends. Obviously the dice are loaded in your favor with more high-profile gets, but ask Shaka how his lunch-pail VCU teams compared to his 4/5-star recruit Texas teams. (This also goes for people who are all "but so-and-so only got offers from smaller programs; we should be getting guys who get offers from P5s and AAC schools!" If they help the program, who cares who else offered them? Do you think Davidson had regrets about signing Steph Curry because Winthrop and a pre-FF VCU were his only other offers?)
Quote:That is where I'd like this program to be as a mid major in a one-bid league. I understand at-large is pretty much out of the question being in this conference unfortunately. Why can we not just dominate the league and be like a SDSU? I'd love for us to be there.
There's the crux of the problem. It's not that easy to "just dominate" ANY conference. San Diego State has never "dominated" the Mountain West, certainly not like they have this season. They finished outside the top 3 each of the past three seasons, and while they're definitely the most consistent program in the conference, they're also not the no-doubt-about-it champs every season. New Mexico State dominates their conference, but what's to dominate of a group that includes a bunch of D2 callups, low-performing programs and a school (Chicago State) that's closer to folding than winning 20 games? I guess if ODU moved to the Big South they could have that, but what's the point?
For me, expectations vary depending on the circumstances, but I think 20 wins a season is reasonable unless a) it's a very young team or b) they're playing an overproof OOC schedule. I'd certainly like to see ODU go to the NCAAs at least one every four years but I'd also be OK if every recruiting class made the postseason at least twice. I don't really care how down a "down year" is so long as there's moves made to turn it around and not let it inform their norm. I'd like for them to recruit better but I'm sure Duke and Kentucky fans also wish their schools would recruit better; that's just part of the territory.
I'm not ready to give up on JJ yet. If ODU has another poor season next year, I think it's definitely a consideration. He still has a margin of error, but this season ate a lot of it up.