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Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #401
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Agreed. Also, I thought Obama wasn't endorsing anyone until the convention nears. Being active on the campaign trail (ie "let's get out the vote and beat Trump") is very different from an official endorsement.
02-24-2020 11:59 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #402
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 11:59 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Agreed. Also, I thought Obama wasn't endorsing anyone until the convention nears. Being active on the campaign trail (ie "let's get out the vote and beat Trump") is very different from an official endorsement.

There absolutely was a window in time that Obama could have endorsed someone and it probably would have kneecapped enough Bernie support and cleaned out the other riff-raff, but that time was months ago. If the DNC leadership were as smart as they are corrupt they'd have found a way to convince Obama to do it. Instead I think they seriously just believed the Bernie movement wasn't real and would fizzle out.
02-24-2020 12:15 PM
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Post: #403
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Obama is never going to stick his neck out for a potential loser. He is too narcissistic to endorse anyone who doesn't think is going to win the Democratic nomination.

Petey is likely toast after Super Tuesday. He's focused everything on the early states and only has a caucus win, despite being distant 2nd in votes in Iowa. Not enough time to move up enough in the rest. The question is whether Biden and Bloomberg are still standing. Pochahantas and Klobuchar should be out of money and out of votes. Steyer will quit wasting his money as he doesn't have as much as Bloomberg. Gabbard is never going to get many votes.
02-24-2020 12:18 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #404
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 12:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Obama is never going to stick his neck out for a potential loser. He is too narcissistic to endorse anyone who doesn't think is going to win the Democratic nomination.

Petey is likely toast after Super Tuesday. He's focused everything on the early states and only has a caucus win, despite being distant 2nd in votes in Iowa. Not enough time to move up enough in the rest. The question is whether Biden and Bloomberg are still standing. Pochahantas and Klobuchar should be out of money and out of votes. Steyer will quit wasting his money as he doesn't have as much as Bloomberg. Gabbard is never going to get many votes.

I don't think Petey had any other choice but to do that. Because he had almost zero national profile he had to go out and way overperform in the all white first 2 states and hope people dropped out and non-Bernie support gathered around him. To his credit he actually accomplished the first part, but no one dropped out and his national profile is still almost non-existent.
02-24-2020 12:48 PM
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Post: #405
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 12:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Obama is never going to stick his neck out for a potential loser. He is too narcissistic to endorse anyone who doesn't think is going to win the Democratic nomination.

Petey is likely toast after Super Tuesday. He's focused everything on the early states and only has a caucus win, despite being distant 2nd in votes in Iowa. Not enough time to move up enough in the rest. The question is whether Biden and Bloomberg are still standing. Pochahantas and Klobuchar should be out of money and out of votes. Steyer will quit wasting his money as he doesn't have as much as Bloomberg. Gabbard is never going to get many votes.

After Super Tuesday it may be too late due to no Winner take All
02-24-2020 01:43 PM
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Post: #406
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 12:48 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 12:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Obama is never going to stick his neck out for a potential loser. He is too narcissistic to endorse anyone who doesn't think is going to win the Democratic nomination.

Petey is likely toast after Super Tuesday. He's focused everything on the early states and only has a caucus win, despite being distant 2nd in votes in Iowa. Not enough time to move up enough in the rest. The question is whether Biden and Bloomberg are still standing. Pochahantas and Klobuchar should be out of money and out of votes. Steyer will quit wasting his money as he doesn't have as much as Bloomberg. Gabbard is never going to get many votes.

I don't think Petey had any other choice but to do that. Because he had almost zero national profile he had to go out and way overperform in the all white first 2 states and hope people dropped out and non-Bernie support gathered around him. To his credit he actually accomplished the first part, but no one dropped out and his national profile is still almost non-existent.

Don't disagree. It just doesn't appear to have worked for him. Things could change in 8 days, but I doubt it.
02-24-2020 01:49 PM
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Post: #407
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 11:55 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Yep the amount of delegates in those 2 states is massive.

Getting a big goose egg there is a death knell

Yeah it would be, and what could be the death knell everyone would be if Bernie got all the delegates from California. Obviously with all things polling I take them with a grain of salt, but the real clear average currently only has Bernie above the 15% viability threshold. If that happened and Bernie took all or nearly all of California's 416 delegates this thing is over.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6879.html

Looking at a half dozen state polls in the last couple of days, Klobuchar gets over 15% only in Minnesota (and she isn't far ahead of Sanders), Buttigieg doesn't crack it in any of the 6 and Warren does it only in Texas (in 3rd place). Steyer barely registers except in South Carolina where he is a solid 3rd.

Bloomberg gets to 15% in several states as does Biden. Sanders does everywhere.
02-24-2020 02:12 PM
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ShrackUAB Offline
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Post: #408
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 11:27 AM)Claw Wrote:  38,808 votes. That's what Bernie got.

In the general in 2016, both Clinton and Trump had over 500,000 votes.

I don't really blame the Democratic party for wanting to kill these results. They aren't worth a damn.

I mean of course. Far more people vote in the actual presidential election. You get about half the voter turnout for a primary, and then a fourth of that at best for a caucus. General election voter turnout = 50-60%, Caucus = < 5%

That was a record turnout for the Nevada caucus. Caucuses are just a different ballgame.
(This post was last modified: 02-24-2020 05:08 PM by ShrackUAB.)
02-24-2020 05:06 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #409
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
I would say Pete knows he’s toast. He’s doing things at his rally now to restore his Great Gay Hope persona. Can’t see him lasting past South Carolina. Wouldn’t be see surprised to see him bow out before Super Tuesday and throw his support behind Biden.
02-24-2020 05:11 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #410
RE: Nevada Caucus Predictions/News/Results
(02-24-2020 05:11 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I would say Pete knows he’s toast. He’s doing things at his rally now to restore his Great Gay Hope persona. Can’t see him lasting past South Carolina. Wouldn’t be see surprised to see him bow out before Super Tuesday and throw his support behind Biden.

Considering the level of rat scum McKinsey Pete is if he dropped out it would be for a few million of that sweet Bloomberg cash. COGS
02-24-2020 05:51 PM
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