(02-23-2020 12:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 11:56 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 09:14 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Bernie would win the popular vote, as Hillary did. We'll see if America gets screwed by the electoral college again.

I don’t think he will win the popular vote like Hillary did.

The electoral college is fine in concept, but I wish all states awarded their electoral votes proportional to the votes in their state. That is more fair and more representative of their state than a winner take all system. It’s a shame only one or two states do this. I know Maine is one, but I’m pretty sure another does this too.

That still defeats the purpose which is to reflect the will of the individual states.

Now what Maine and Nebraska do is that they award electoral votes by US House district, not proportionally. 2 votes got to the winner of the state and 1 to the winner of each house district.

Imagine the uproar if either California or Texas allocated like Maine and Nebraska. Nothing to worry about though, Dems will never allow that in Dem controlled states and pubs will never in their controlled states.

(02-23-2020 10:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Klobuchar looking to finish at 6th behind Steyer is bad for her.

In Nevada, Klobuchar actually got more people to vote for her than for Steyer: 8,315 to 8,202.

But Steyer is ahead in “County Convention Delegates”. How those are calculated, I have Zero clues.

88% in. 12:02 am ET

Bernie - 13 delegates, 47.1%, 6120 votes
Biden - 2, 21%, 2723
Pete - 1, 13.7%, 1772
Liz - 0, 9.6%, 1243
Steyer - 0, 4.7%, 604
Amy - 0, 3.9%, 506
All others - 0, 0.4%, 13

Wait, is that ^^^ real? I saw story after media coverage and on and on about early voting, lines, record turnout?!?

That looks like 12,500 votes or so. Are those supposed to be followed by a couple zeros?

Am I missing something?

(02-24-2020 04:57 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Wait, is that ^^^ real? I saw story after media coverage and on and on about early voting, lines, record turnout?!?

That looks like 12,500 votes or so. Are those supposed to be followed by a couple zeros?

Am I missing something?

The votes in Nevada are total county delegates. Then based on that they get national delegates.

Pretty sure its around 120k + actual total votes. Caucuses are weird. They have pros and cons, but definitely encourage lower voter turnout because you have to actually spend time doing it instead of walking in and voting in 5 minutes. Like less than 5% of state populations show up during a caucus. Pretty dumb

(02-24-2020 04:57 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Wait, is that ^^^ real? I saw story after media coverage and on and on about early voting, lines, record turnout?!?

That looks like 12,500 votes or so. Are those supposed to be followed by a couple zeros?

Am I missing something?

Looks like the number was 12,233 in 2016, however they figure out those numbers. I didn't check other years besides that, but with a few more votes to be counted, it's certainly more than the Clinton/Sanders total from four years ago.

It appears that if nothing else, one conclusion from the 2020 primary cycle is states will finally get rid of the ridiculously silly caucus system.

Caucuses show the strength of a campaigns ground game. For a modern campaign based on TV ads, caucuses suck

(02-24-2020 07:59 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Caucuses show the strength of a campaigns ground game. For a modern campaign based on TV ads, caucuses suck

Ground game matters. Killary's ground game was trash in 16. It's one of the many legitimate reasons she lost (none of which were MUH RUSSIA).

(02-23-2020 10:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  At 88% in, Mayor Pete is only viable in CD 2 and 3. He is below the 15% viability threshold for the statewide vote.

Klobacher looking to finish at 6th behind Steyer is bad for her. If she finishes at 6th in SC, she I think she should drop out before Super Tuesday to help consolidate the anti Bernie vote. If the Dems go into Super Tuesday with 6 viable candidates, brokered convention will be the only realistic way to stop Bernie

In any normal year with a sane press, she would have been pushed out after Iowa. She finished 5th after putting all her resources in her neighboring state. 3rd in NH should have pushed her out.

(02-23-2020 09:25 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 09:08 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 06:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  Sunday night and the most recent thing I see posted is only 60%.

Sorry I don’t have the link, but the latest batch of precincts have been calculated and it’s up to 71.6% reporting now.

So...C- is okay for the Dems? Sounds about right when their standard in public schools is just 'average' progress. Mediocrity...Welcome to the Dem philosophy.

Monday morning and only 88%? That's worse than California.

(02-24-2020 10:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 10:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  At 88% in, Mayor Pete is only viable in CD 2 and 3. He is below the 15% viability threshold for the statewide vote.

Klobacher looking to finish at 6th behind Steyer is bad for her. If she finishes at 6th in SC, she I think she should drop out before Super Tuesday to help consolidate the anti Bernie vote. If the Dems go into Super Tuesday with 6 viable candidates, brokered convention will be the only realistic way to stop Bernie

In any normal year with a sane press, she would have been pushed out after Iowa. She finished 5th after putting all her resources in her neighboring state. 3rd in NH should have pushed her out.

The press is cheering for a brokered convention this year. Sleepy Joe is senile, Mini Mike choked his chance away, and they don't want Crazy Bernie to be president. I don't think they'll push anyone out. I am frankly amazed they haven't gotten behind Pete at this point. He seems like the only one not named Bernie that can both speak in complete sentences and avoid big unforced errors. The guy is a gay version of Obama. Just proves the press is owned by the DNC and the deep pockets are still hoping for Mini Mike or maybe even someone not running like Crooked Hillary or Aunt Jemima Michele.

(02-24-2020 10:27 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 10:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 10:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  At 88% in, Mayor Pete is only viable in CD 2 and 3. He is below the 15% viability threshold for the statewide vote.

Klobacher looking to finish at 6th behind Steyer is bad for her. If she finishes at 6th in SC, she I think she should drop out before Super Tuesday to help consolidate the anti Bernie vote. If the Dems go into Super Tuesday with 6 viable candidates, brokered convention will be the only realistic way to stop Bernie

In any normal year with a sane press, she would have been pushed out after Iowa. She finished 5th after putting all her resources in her neighboring state. 3rd in NH should have pushed her out.

The press is cheering for a brokered convention this year. Sleepy Joe is senile, Mini Mike choked his chance away, and they don't want Crazy Bernie to be president. I don't think they'll push anyone out. I am frankly amazed they haven't gotten behind Pete at this point. He seems like the only one not named Bernie that can both speak in complete sentences and avoid big unforced errors. The guy is a gay version of Obama. Just proves the press is owned by the DNC and the deep pockets are still hoping for Mini Mike or maybe even someone not running like Crooked Hillary or Aunt Jemima Michele.

Its pretty clear they get their talking points from the DNC. It would be pretty embarrassing if all those e-mails ever got hacked.

No rumors of anyone dropping out. I can't imagine anyone dropping out between South Carolina on Saturday and Super Tuesday. You can only spend so much money in 3 days. So it looks like 7 Dems for the debate plus Gabbard toddling on for a little while longer.

(02-24-2020 04:57 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Wait, is that ^^^ real? I saw story after media coverage and on and on about early voting, lines, record turnout?!?

That looks like 12,500 votes or so. Are those supposed to be followed by a couple zeros?

Am I missing something?

Last count I saw for actual votes and not county delegate votes, Bernie had a little over 35,000. I think Biden had about 17000.

The numbers for the caucuses aren't very large. Trump had 34,000 and some change in 2016 for reference.

(02-24-2020 10:27 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 10:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 10:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  At 88% in, Mayor Pete is only viable in CD 2 and 3. He is below the 15% viability threshold for the statewide vote.

Klobacher looking to finish at 6th behind Steyer is bad for her. If she finishes at 6th in SC, she I think she should drop out before Super Tuesday to help consolidate the anti Bernie vote. If the Dems go into Super Tuesday with 6 viable candidates, brokered convention will be the only realistic way to stop Bernie

In any normal year with a sane press, she would have been pushed out after Iowa. She finished 5th after putting all her resources in her neighboring state. 3rd in NH should have pushed her out.

The press is cheering for a brokered convention this year. Sleepy Joe is senile, Mini Mike choked his chance away, and they don't want Crazy Bernie to be president. I don't think they'll push anyone out. I am frankly amazed they haven't gotten behind Pete at this point. He seems like the only one not named Bernie that can both speak in complete sentences and avoid big unforced errors. The guy is a gay version of Obama. Just proves the press is owned by the DNC and the deep pockets are still hoping for Mini Mike or maybe even someone not running like Crooked Hillary or Aunt Jemima Michele.

If McKinsey Pete had any support of people with skin tones darker than his they might would. Nevada just proved the talking point that Bernie only has white supporters dead wrong, and it proved that Petey is actually the one who only has white support. The likely 4th or 5th he finishes in South Carolina will cement it for everyone.

One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

38,808 votes. That's what Bernie got.

In the general in 2016, both Clinton and Trump had over 500,000 votes.

I don't really blame the Democratic party for wanting to kill these results. They aren't worth a damn.

(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Yep the amount of delegates in those 2 states is massive.

Getting a big goose egg there is a death knell

(02-24-2020 11:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:36 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:17 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One endorsement from Barack Obama and that will all change for Mayor Pete. Rumors are that he's about to become more active on the political trail. I'm sure he won't do anything before Biden drops out, but it wouldn't surprise me if a Buttigieg endorsement might happen if Joe did drop out say after Super Tuesday. I certainly wouldn't expect him to endorse anyone else at this point. If it's just Sanders, he probably stays mostly in the background like he did in 2016.

If that were the plan (which I kinda doubt) it would be a big waste to do it after Super Tuesday. CIA Pete is done after Super Tuesday unless something drastic happens to change his fortunes. He's polling at roughly 12% in California and roughly 8% in Texas. It's flat out over for him if he doesn't reach viability in those 2 states no matter who endorses him.

Yep the amount of delegates in those 2 states is massive.

Getting a big goose egg there is a death knell

Yeah it would be, and what could be the death knell everyone would be if Bernie got all the delegates from California. Obviously with all things polling I take them with a grain of salt, but the real clear average currently only has Bernie above the 15% viability threshold. If that happened and Bernie took all or nearly all of California's 416 delegates this thing is over.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6879.html