https://www.city-journal.org/red-states-...-advantage

"...Many urban politicians act as if talent will continue to cluster in elite places like San Francisco, New York, West Los Angeles, or Seattle, but companies seeking to recruit educated workers increasingly flock to places like Dallas–Fort Worth, Orlando, Nashville, and other affordable red-state metros. The movement of corporate offices has been particularly marked, with an estimated 1,800 firms leaving California for the Lone Star State in just one year. These companies are not just low-wage employers but high-paying firms like Toyota, Nissan, McKesson, Bechtel, Jacobs, Parsons, and Sanford Bernstein. Once a jobs magnet, California has emerged as the largest sender of jobs to Texas. Between 2000 and 2013, the Golden State was the source of more than 51,000 jobs, about one-fifth of all jobs moving to Texas. The most recent survey for Chief Executive Magazine ranks Texas, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Indiana as more business-friendly, while blue bastions California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Connecticut stood at the bottom.

The impacts on higher-wage-sector growth are evident. In the category of business and professional employment, the largest source of high-wage jobs, the biggest gains over the decade were in Utah, the Carolinas, and Texas; only blue Oregon and purple Colorado were in the top 10, which also included some surprising Midwestern states such as Missouri, Michigan, and North Dakota. Last year, the red-blue gap strengthened further, with Utah and Idaho growing almost 50 percent faster than California, and almost five times as quickly as New York or New Jersey...."

(02-09-2020 02:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.city-journal.org/red-states-...-advantage

"...Many urban politicians act as if talent will continue to cluster in elite places like San Francisco, New York, West Los Angeles, or Seattle, but companies seeking to recruit educated workers increasingly flock to places like Dallas–Fort Worth, Orlando, Nashville, and other affordable red-state metros. The movement of corporate offices has been particularly marked, with an estimated 1,800 firms leaving California for the Lone Star State in just one year. These companies are not just low-wage employers but high-paying firms like Toyota, Nissan, McKesson, Bechtel, Jacobs, Parsons, and Sanford Bernstein. Once a jobs magnet, California has emerged as the largest sender of jobs to Texas. Between 2000 and 2013, the Golden State was the source of more than 51,000 jobs, about one-fifth of all jobs moving to Texas. The most recent survey for Chief Executive Magazine ranks Texas, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Indiana as more business-friendly, while blue bastions California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Connecticut stood at the bottom.

The impacts on higher-wage-sector growth are evident. In the category of business and professional employment, the largest source of high-wage jobs, the biggest gains over the decade were in Utah, the Carolinas, and Texas; only blue Oregon and purple Colorado were in the top 10, which also included some surprising Midwestern states such as Missouri, Michigan, and North Dakota. Last year, the red-blue gap strengthened further, with Utah and Idaho growing almost 50 percent faster than California, and almost five times as quickly as New York or New Jersey...."

Economic Darwinism at work. When Billionaires are no longer able to rely on lying to the public through the MSM the truth of just how much government policy plays a role in the decline of the blue states will be even starker by comparison.

(02-09-2020 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Economic Darwinism at work. When Billionaires are not longer able to rely on lying to the public through the MSM the truth of just how much government policy plays a role in the decline of the blue states will be even starker by comparison.

California has been turned into a $#!thole by the leftists. This is all that remains in their nightmare:

The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

What was it I saw this weekend, if the left does away with the electoral college, people in rural areas become Serfs and their voices will be forever ignored...

Bunch of Dem nutjobs have run Connecticut into the ground. Gone are the glory days of Lieberman.

(02-10-2020 10:50 AM)gdunn Wrote:  What was it I saw this weekend, if the left does away with the electoral college, people in rural areas become Serfs and their voices will be forever ignored...

That would allow for the restart of the ‘enlightened’ position that Mayors Should Run the World

(02-09-2020 06:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

This.

NC is a great example of this. Our metro areas are thriving, Raleigh and Charlotte in particular, and the smaller metro areas are doing quite well too.

Rural NC is still struggling hard and there really isn't a clear path to turning things around. Brain drain has already hit these areas too hard. Those with the means to leave have largely left and those that go away to college rarely return. The towns are left with the elderly and the unskilled, and those demographics aren't going to draw in any economic investment, even if the tax rate was negative.

As a native Tennessean and native Memphian, I pay attention to state politics.

TN is primarily GOP and even more so conservative. For example, TN's marriage protection amendment passed with 81% of the vote. All 95 counties voted in favor. This includes the Democratic counties of Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson (Nashville).

Which brings me to another point.

Both Memphis and Nashville lean heavy democrat. Memphis, sure, but Nashville surprised me given their economic boom.

Digging further we see that Nashville crime is also trying to overtake Memphis as is its failing public education system.

Nashville's boom has been coupled with Democratic control and they are starting to experience the negative consequences associated with liberal policies.

EDIT
I forgot to mention the financial stability comparison between the two cities. This report was published recently and included in a local news outlet:

Memphis doesn't have enough money to pay its bills, according to report

Quote:A new report says Memphis doesn’t have enough money to pay its bills. That contradicts the impression city hall has been giving citizens, but that report also says Nashville’s finances are in even bigger trouble.

Quote: Of the 75 cities ranked, Memphis sits right in the middle of the pack, ranking at 33. Nashville was ranked almost dead last.

Financial Grade
C- Memphis
D- Nashville

Shortfall
$743M - Memphis
$3.8B - Nashville

Per Taxpayer
$3,700 - Memphis
$18,400 - Nashville

(02-09-2020 06:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

While it's true that there's a rural-urban divide... there's also a massive blue-red divide between metro areas. Red metro areas are growing much faster than blue metro areas.

Of the 18 metros over 3 million people, 4 voted for Trump. They've all had population growth over 13% since 2010.

Large Metros that voted for Trump, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Large Metros between 50%-60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros over 60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI


Or, you want to go with red-purple-blue states:
Large Metros in Red States, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Large Metros in Purple States, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (metro is mostly in VA)
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros in Blue States, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

(02-10-2020 02:34 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-09-2020 06:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

While it's true that there's a rural-urban divide... there's also a massive blue-red divide between metro areas. Red metro areas are growing much faster than blue metro areas.
Of the 18 metros over 3 million people, 4 voted for Trump. They've all had population growth over 13% since 2010.
Large Metros that voted for Trump, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Large Metros between 50%-60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Large Metros over 60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Or, you want to go with red-purple-blue states:
Large Metros in Red States, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Large Metros in Purple States, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (metro is mostly in VA)
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Large Metros in Blue States, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

Montgomery County, Texas (The Woodlands/Conroe) is the fastest growing county in the US, last I checked, and also the most republican. It went 75% for Trump in 2016 and 75% for Ted Cruz in 2018, giving both of them their largest numerical pluralities of any county.

(02-10-2020 02:34 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-09-2020 06:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

While it's true that there's a rural-urban divide... there's also a massive blue-red divide between metro areas. Red metro areas are growing much faster than blue metro areas.

Of the 18 metros over 3 million people, 4 voted for Trump. They've all had population growth over 13% since 2010.

Large Metros that voted for Trump, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Large Metros between 50%-60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros over 60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI


Or, you want to go with red-purple-blue states:
Large Metros in Red States, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Large Metros in Purple States, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (metro is mostly in VA)
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros in Blue States, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

From the numbers you posted it's clear that there is more going on than simply which way a metro area voted in the last presidential election. I mean your list could be parsed by which cities are above or below 36' 30". But I think the best metric would be to look at the tax and social policies of these MSA's as a predictor.

(02-10-2020 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  As a native Tennessean and native Memphian, I pay attention to state politics.

TN is primarily GOP and even more so conservative. For example, TN's marriage protection amendment passed with 81% of the vote. All 95 counties voted in favor. This includes the Democratic counties of Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson (Nashville).

Which brings me to another point.

Both Memphis and Nashville lean heavy democrat. Memphis, sure, but Nashville surprised me given their economic boom.

Digging further we see that Nashville crime is also trying to overtake Memphis as is its failing public education system.

Nashville's boom has been coupled with Democratic control and they are starting to experience the negative consequences associated with liberal policies.

EDIT
I forgot to mention the financial stability comparison between the two cities. This report was published recently and included in a local news outlet:

Memphis doesn't have enough money to pay its bills, according to report

Quote:A new report says Memphis doesn’t have enough money to pay its bills. That contradicts the impression city hall has been giving citizens, but that report also says Nashville’s finances are in even bigger trouble.

Quote: Of the 75 cities ranked, Memphis sits right in the middle of the pack, ranking at 33. Nashville was ranked almost dead last.

Financial Grade
C- Memphis
D- Nashville

Shortfall
$743M - Memphis
$3.8B - Nashville

Per Taxpayer
$3,700 - Memphis
$18,400 - Nashville

Unfunded pensions are going to hit every major and most states in a few years. I happen to think the only way around it will be a rate hike from the power company that the each state's Public Service Commission will approve. Some places like California will probably also increase the gas tax too.

I think you'll see an acceleration of talent clustering in blue areas of red states like Austin.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

(02-10-2020 08:13 PM)fsquid Wrote:  I think you'll see an acceleration of talent clustering in blue areas of red states like Austin.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Obviously that's already occurring. The questions is just how dynamic a 'creative class' economy is since most cities want the industrial/manufacturing sector outside of the city limits.

(02-10-2020 08:05 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 02:34 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-09-2020 06:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

While it's true that there's a rural-urban divide... there's also a massive blue-red divide between metro areas. Red metro areas are growing much faster than blue metro areas.

Of the 18 metros over 3 million people, 4 voted for Trump. They've all had population growth over 13% since 2010.

Large Metros that voted for Trump, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Large Metros between 50%-60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros over 60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI


Or, you want to go with red-purple-blue states:
Large Metros in Red States, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Large Metros in Purple States, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (metro is mostly in VA)
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros in Blue States, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

From the numbers you posted it's clear that there is more going on than simply which way a metro area voted in the last presidential election. I mean your list could be parsed by which cities are above or below 36' 30". But I think the best metric would be to look at the tax and social policies of these MSA's as a predictor.

Yes, there's several things at play.

But the "tax and social policies" are the biggest. Blue metros have higher taxes, more onerous regulatory regimes, and prioritize deeply unpopular social policies. These drive people away.

By the way, controlling for geographic region makes makes the red-blue divide stand out even more. For example, the fastest growing metro in the Midwest is Indianapolis (in the reddest state in the Midwest). The bluest 3 metros in the Midwest (Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit) are also 3 of the 4 slowest growing in the Midwest. The slowest growing metros below 36'30" are Memphis and Los Angeles. The fastest growing metros above 36'30" are purple Denver and red Salt Lake City.

(02-10-2020 08:05 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 02:34 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-09-2020 06:22 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  The red state blue state divide is disingenuous. The real split is between urban cores and the suburbs/country. There are are plenty of GOP voters East if the I-5 in California and Western NY. Conversely, no one mistakes Austin, TX for a conservative stronghold. This is also why another Civil War is difficult to imagine. There aren’t any easy dividing lines.

While it's true that there's a rural-urban divide... there's also a massive blue-red divide between metro areas. Red metro areas are growing much faster than blue metro areas.

Of the 18 metros over 3 million people, 4 voted for Trump. They've all had population growth over 13% since 2010.

Large Metros that voted for Trump, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Large Metros between 50%-60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros over 60% for Clinton, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI


Or, you want to go with red-purple-blue states:
Large Metros in Red States, ranked by growth rate:
18% - Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
17% - Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
16% - Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
13% - Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Large Metros in Purple States, ranked by growth rate:
13% - Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11% - Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
11% - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (metro is mostly in VA)
8% - Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
2% - Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
1% - Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Large Metros in Blue States, ranked by growth rate:
15% - Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
9% - Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
9% - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
8% - San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
7% - Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
4% - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
2% - New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
0% - Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

From the numbers you posted it's clear that there is more going on than simply which way a metro area voted in the last presidential election. I mean your list could be parsed by which cities are above or below 36' 30". But I think the best metric would be to look at the tax and social policies of these MSA's as a predictor.

Yes, there's several things at play.

But the "tax and social policies" are the biggest. Blue metros have higher taxes, more onerous regulatory regimes, and prioritize deeply unpopular social policies. These drive people away.

By the way, controlling for geographic region makes makes the red-blue divide stand out even more. For example, the fastest growing metro in the Midwest is Indianapolis (in the reddest state in the Midwest). The bluest 3 metros in the Midwest (Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit) are also 3 of the 4 slowest growing in the Midwest. The slowest growing metros below 36'30" are Memphis and Los Angeles. The fastest growing metros above 36'30" are purple Denver and red Salt Lake City.

(02-10-2020 08:11 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(02-10-2020 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  As a native Tennessean and native Memphian, I pay attention to state politics.

TN is primarily GOP and even more so conservative. For example, TN's marriage protection amendment passed with 81% of the vote. All 95 counties voted in favor. This includes the Democratic counties of Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson (Nashville).

Which brings me to another point.

Both Memphis and Nashville lean heavy democrat. Memphis, sure, but Nashville surprised me given their economic boom.

Digging further we see that Nashville crime is also trying to overtake Memphis as is its failing public education system.

Nashville's boom has been coupled with Democratic control and they are starting to experience the negative consequences associated with liberal policies.

EDIT
I forgot to mention the financial stability comparison between the two cities. This report was published recently and included in a local news outlet:

Memphis doesn't have enough money to pay its bills, according to report

Quote:A new report says Memphis doesn’t have enough money to pay its bills. That contradicts the impression city hall has been giving citizens, but that report also says Nashville’s finances are in even bigger trouble.

Quote: Of the 75 cities ranked, Memphis sits right in the middle of the pack, ranking at 33. Nashville was ranked almost dead last.

Financial Grade
C- Memphis
D- Nashville

Shortfall
$743M - Memphis
$3.8B - Nashville

Per Taxpayer
$3,700 - Memphis
$18,400 - Nashville

Unfunded pensions are going to hit every major and most states in a few years. I happen to think the only way around it will be a rate hike from the power company that the each state's Public Service Commission will approve. Some places like California will probably also increase the gas tax too.

Unfunded or underfunded pensions are a serious problem. This is an issue that has been hidden by officials over the years. Unfortunately, citizens weren't aware that these officials were failing at this aspect of their job.

These people need to be voted out of office for failing the public trust.

People need to be aware that they are about to face serious tax and rate increases to pay for these bad decisions.

And cities need to cut programs until these pensions are fully funded.

Do they need to revisit the pension programs themselves? Maybe going forward these programs shouldn't be as generous as they have been.

(02-10-2020 08:13 PM)fsquid Wrote:  I think you'll see an acceleration of talent clustering in blue areas of red states like Austin.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Houston and Dallas are doing quite well, adding more housing and jobs than any other metros in the country.

(02-10-2020 08:13 PM)fsquid Wrote:  I think you'll see an acceleration of talent clustering in blue areas of red states like Austin.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That's the opposite of what the data says is happening.

In Ohio, purple Columbus is the fastest growing metro, followed by Red Cincinnati. Blue cities Toledo and Cleveland are bleeding.

The fastest growing metro in Michigan is Grand Rapids, which is probably the reddest metro in the state.

In Florida, Tampa and Orlando are growing much faster than deep blue Miami.

In Arkansas, Little Rock is purple and is growing much slower than ruby-red Fayetville and Jonesboro.