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Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
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owl at the moon Online
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Post: #1
Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
One week to go until the Pods are set.

Rice still has a legit shot to ascend into pod 2 with a home sweep to extend the current 3-game win streak. A split would likely leave us in pod 3 in all but a couple of contrived situations.

Winning a pair would get us to 6-8. Here’s how our potential tiebreakers look against other teams who could tie us at 6-8 (in the simplest head-to-head case). Multi team ties are more complicated, but head-to-Head within the tied group is still the first tiebreaker.

Rice Beat:
ODU 6-6 (in the scenario where we win both this week)
UAB 5-7

Rice Lost To:
FAU 6-6
Marshall 6-6
UTSA 5-7
UTEP 4-8

Two wins is not a guarantee, but UTSA losing two at home, or ODU also losing at UNT, or UAB losing at least one of two against MTSU would help our cause considerably.

As mentioned elsewhere in a game thread, the only way we make pod 2 with a 1-1 home split would be a total UAB collapse going 0-2 against last place MTSU.
02-10-2020 09:18 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Good info. I think the ODU game is definitely our easier game of the two this week. They lost their 2nd leading scorer a few weeks ago to a season-ending injury, and even though they've won some games since then, they're not a deep team currently. Charlotte has been playing well at home, but isn't that great on the road (and is young) so that's another winnable game. The key to both may be a healthy Adams, and a good, loud crowd.

It's definitely our most interesting week of basketball (both men and women) we've had in quite a few years. Win streaks will do that though.
02-10-2020 09:35 AM
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owl at the moon Online
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Post: #3
Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
My humble opinion: Rice cheering guide for Wednesday/Thursday games
(In order of how much we should care):

1. RICE to hold serve at home v ODU
2. Marshall win at UTSA as a slight underdog ( we have tiebreaker disadvantage to both, and would rather get UTSA cleanly behind us and might as well get Marshall cleanly ahead of us)
3. Middle (Wednesday) as solid underdog at UAB
4. Western at UTEP (we need to get ahead of UTEP, who beat us. We’re tied right now)
5. Charlotte at UNT (clinches pod one for Charlotte, diminishes the importance to 49ers of their final game at Rice
6. FAU at USM helps Rice with respect to avoiding seed 13 (currently USM) toward clinching Frisco trip, regardless of what Rice does
7. LaTech vs FIU. No real impact on Rice, so cheer for LaTech on the off chance they can qualify for an at-large bid when Rice wins the tourney in Frisco.
02-10-2020 04:22 PM
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Jonathan Sadow Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
With two games before the pods are determined, how does Massey think things will go?

Pod 1
1. UNT 12-2
2. WKU 11-3
3. Louisiana Tech 10-4
4. FIU 9-5
5. Charlotte 8-6

Pod 2
6. UAB 7-7
7. FAU 6-8
8. UTSA 6-8
9. Marshall 6-8
10. Rice 6-8

Pod 3
11. ODU 6-8
12. UTEP 5-9
13. USM 4-10
14. MTSU 2-12

What about Pomeroy?

Pod 1
1. UNT 12-2
2. WKU 11-3
3. Louisiana Tech 10-4
4. Charlotte 9-5
5. FIU 9-5

Pod 2
6. ODU 7-7
7. UAB 7-7
8. FAU 7-7
9. Marshall 7-7
10. UTSA 5-9

Pod 3
11. UTEP 5-9
12. Rice 4-10
13. USM 3-11
14. MTSU 2-12

The enigmatic Warren Nolan also does game predictions on his site:

Pod 1
1. UNT 12-2
2. WKU 11-3
3. Louisiana Tech 10-4
4. Charlotte 9-5
5. FIU 9-5

Pod 2
6. UAB 7-7
7. FAU 7-7
8. UTSA 6-8
9. Marshall 6-8
10. ODU 6-8

Pod 3
11. UTEP 5-9
12. Rice 5-9
13. USM 3-11
14. MTSU 2-12

As you can see, even slight changes in the results can cause large changes in the seedings, especially among the teams in the middle of the standings. Pod 1 is basically settled, but other than Southern Miss and Middle Tennessee everything else is up for grabs. I'd say the big takeaway from this is that Rice is unlikely to get out of Pod 3 unless the Owls beat both Old Dominion and Charlotte.
02-11-2020 03:01 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
So all this agitation and cogitation boils down to this:

Just win.
02-11-2020 09:18 AM
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owl at the moon Online
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Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
(02-11-2020 03:01 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  With two games before the pods are determined, how does Massey think things will go?

Pod 1
1. UNT 12-2
2. WKU 11-3
3. Louisiana Tech 10-4
4. FIU 9-5
5. Charlotte 8-6

Pod 2
6. UAB 7-7
7. FAU 6-8
8. UTSA 6-8
9. Marshall 6-8
10. Rice 6-8

Pod 3
11. ODU 6-8
12. UTEP 5-9
13. USM 4-10
14. MTSU 2-12

What about Pomeroy?

Pod 1
1. UNT 12-2
2. WKU 11-3
3. Louisiana Tech 10-4
4. Charlotte 9-5
5. FIU 9-5

Pod 2
6. ODU 7-7
7. UAB 7-7
8. FAU 7-7
9. Marshall 7-7
10. UTSA 5-9

Pod 3
11. UTEP 5-9
12. Rice 4-10
13. USM 3-11
14. MTSU 2-12

The enigmatic Warren Nolan also does game predictions on his site:

Pod 1
1. UNT 12-2
2. WKU 11-3
3. Louisiana Tech 10-4
4. Charlotte 9-5
5. FIU 9-5

Pod 2
6. UAB 7-7
7. FAU 7-7
8. UTSA 6-8
9. Marshall 6-8
10. ODU 6-8

Pod 3
11. UTEP 5-9
12. Rice 5-9
13. USM 3-11
14. MTSU 2-12

As you can see, even slight changes in the results can cause large changes in the seedings, especially among the teams in the middle of the standings. Pod 1 is basically settled, but other than Southern Miss and Middle Tennessee everything else is up for grabs. I'd say the big takeaway from this is that Rice is unlikely to get out of Pod 3 unless the Owls beat both Old Dominion and Charlotte.


In your Massey scenario with 5 teams tied at 6-8, Rice and ODU (each 1-3 in the group) would be the bottom two of the bunch. Looks like Rice would then get the pod two spot on the basis of its key win against #1 UNT.

All prognosticators (also tossing in ESPN FPI) have both our games this week as near toss-ups, with the KenPom on Saturday being literally 50/50 (to the nearest percentage point, they gave a fractional edge to Charlotte the last I looked)
02-11-2020 01:09 PM
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owl at the moon Online
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Post: #7
Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
(02-10-2020 04:22 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  My humble opinion: Rice cheering guide for Wednesday/Thursday games
(In order of how much we should care):

1. RICE to hold serve at home v ODU
2. Marshall win at UTSA as a slight underdog ( we have tiebreaker disadvantage to both, and would rather get UTSA cleanly behind us and might as well get Marshall cleanly ahead of us)
3. Middle (Wednesday) as solid underdog at UAB
4. Western at UTEP (we need to get ahead of UTEP, who beat us. We’re tied right now)
5. Charlotte at UNT (clinches pod one for Charlotte, diminishes the importance to 49ers of their final game at Rice
6. FAU at USM helps Rice with respect to avoiding seed 13 (currently USM) toward clinching Frisco trip, regardless of what Rice does
7. LaTech vs FIU. No real impact on Rice, so cheer for LaTech on the off chance they can qualify for an at-large bid when Rice wins the tourney in Frisco.


Pshaw... MT led the entire first half on the road but UAB came back to win by 11. We can still catch UAB if MT beats them in Saturday’s rematch.
02-12-2020 10:45 PM
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Da.Owl Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
(02-11-2020 09:18 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  So all this agitation and cogitation boils down to this:

Just win.

You are.correct, Sir.
02-13-2020 12:40 PM
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Almadenmike Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Sadly, only 2 of the 7 CUSA Wed/Thurs games went according to our cheering guide's hopes:

(02-10-2020 04:22 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  My humble opinion: Rice cheering guide for Wednesday/Thursday games
(In order of how much we should care):

1. Nope! RICE to hold serve at home v ODU
2. Nope! Marshall win at UTSA as a slight underdog ( we have tiebreaker disadvantage to both, and would rather get UTSA cleanly behind us and might as well get Marshall cleanly ahead of us)
3. Nope! Middle (Wednesday) as solid underdog at UAB
4. Yay!! Western at UTEP (we need to get ahead of UTEP, who beat us. We’re tied right now)
5. Nope! Charlotte at UNT (clinches pod one for Charlotte, diminishes the importance to 49ers of their final game at Rice
6. Nope! FAU at USM helps Rice with respect to avoiding seed 13 (currently USM) toward clinching Frisco trip, regardless of what Rice does
7. Yay!! LaTech vs FIU. No real impact on Rice, so cheer for LaTech on the off chance they can qualify for an at-large bid when Rice wins the tourney in Frisco.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2020 12:21 AM by Almadenmike.)
02-14-2020 12:20 AM
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owl at the moon Online
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Post: #10
Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
And now the third pod is set with a two-game gap between 2/3.
6th place ODU can still win a tie breaker against Charlotte, if we beat them Saturday, but not against FIU (the two teams just ahead of them in Pod 1)

We turn attention to the three way race for the top two spots between Rice, UTEP, And USM (all 4-9).
Again, the tiebreaker does not favor us vs those two
[Image: 997904561b3f64b1b9aa2225b11abb86.jpg]
We need three wins in our last five games to effectively sew up a trip to Frisco. Two wins might do it but that’s just as likely not enough.
All three of us play at home Saturday, before Pod play begins.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2020 04:53 AM by owl at the moon.)
02-14-2020 04:34 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
We will likely play USM and MTSU at home, and then UTEP, and either USM or MTSU again (I think whoever is the 11 seed after Saturday plays MTSU twice?) on the road. If we can’t go 3 and 2 in those 5, we deserve to stay home.
02-14-2020 06:31 AM
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owl at the moon Online
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Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
(02-14-2020 06:31 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  We will likely play USM and MTSU at home, and then UTEP, and either USM or MTSU again (I think whoever is the 11 seed after Saturday plays MTSU twice?) on the road. If we can’t go 3 and 2 in those 5, we deserve to stay home.
Yes, that’s how it works.

And even though we were rooting for MTSU (vs UAB) Wednesday... since we lost we’re rooting for UAB (vs MTSU) Saturday. In retrospect, with our loss, I’m Glad UAB won Wednesday!!!
02-14-2020 05:15 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
UTEP hosts Marshall, USM hosts FIU and we host Charlotte. I'm pretty sure we need to win and have the other two teams lose at home in order to finish as the 11 seed. UTEP beat both Rice and USM, so they'll have the tie-breaker advantage in any tie.
02-14-2020 05:59 PM
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owl at the moon Online
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Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
(02-14-2020 05:59 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  UTEP hosts Marshall, USM hosts FIU and we host Charlotte. I'm pretty sure we need to win and have the other two teams lose at home in order to finish as the 11 seed. UTEP beat both Rice and USM, so they'll have the tie-breaker advantage in any tie.


Concur.

Although I’m not too concerned about what seed we get for pod play... I just want to make sure we’re top 12 after pod play so we can get our ticket punched to Frisco
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2020 09:40 PM by owl at the moon.)
02-14-2020 09:40 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
USM guy on CUSA site was saying because they are the 11 seed, they will host Rice (and go to UTEP, while splitting home and road with MTSU, the 14 seed).

They'll announce games and times tomorrow, but it sounds like we're playing UTEP twice more (one home, one road), hosting MTSU, and going to USM (again).

4-0 or 3-1 and we will be in conference tournament. 1-3 or 0-4 and we will not. 2-2 in some scenarios will get us into the tournament (splitting with UTEP for instance while they also split their 4 games), but in other scenarios (a UTEP split but they go 3-1 and USM also goes 3-1) we'll stay home.
02-15-2020 09:19 PM
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Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Good summary.
For completeness, I’ll point out that there is a scenario where we can go 1-3 and still make the tourney, as long as UTEP also goes 1-3. (And MTSU loses at least one of two vs USM)

We have been playing some pretty good ball so far in February, let’s keep up our 4-1 run going in pod play and hopefully the tourney, too
02-15-2020 09:48 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Pod 3 announced

Rice at UTEP, Feb. 22, 6 pm
Middle Tennessee at Rice, March 1 (Sunday), 2 pm (baseball is hosting Missouri State at 1 pm)
Rice at USM, March 4, 7 pm
UTEP at Rice, March 7, 5 pm
02-16-2020 02:04 PM
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temchugh Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Rice is playing USM on the road and MTSU and home while UTEP has USM at home and MTSU on the road. It will be easier for UTEP to win both those games. If Rice goes 2-2 while UTEP goes 3-1, then Rice will most likely miss the conference tournament.
02-17-2020 10:26 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Maybe on UTEP. But they're not playing very good basketball right now (they've lost 5 straight which includes home losses to UAB, Western Kentucky and Marshall). They beat MTSU by 1 at home prior to the losing streak and got blown out by UNT before that, so they're 1-6 in their last 7 games. And a couple of their guys are either in the doghouse or hurt. If they beat USM then I think a 3-1 scenario is possible; but if they lose that USM game (and USM is on a roll), I seriously doubt they win their last 3 games.
02-17-2020 01:11 PM
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owl at the moon Online
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Tiebreaker Talk (MBB) Pods and seeding
Ok I’m recovered enough from last night’s epic collapse at UTEP to recap the tiebreaker implications (considering that had we held on to that 19-point lead, we’d be up two with three to go). The good news is we get another crack at UTEP at our place.

Bad news is, as it sits now, we’re odd-man-out in the three-way tie at 11th (11&12 go to Frisco, 13&14 stay home).
Record between three tied teams:
UTEP 3-0
USM 1-1
Rice 0-3

If we beat MT in Tudor next Sunday, then we’re back in the saddle at #12.

But even if that happens we’d need to sweep our last two against UTEP & USM, or get some help from MT.*
(Edit: or, actually in that case, simply make sure we beat whoever loses Sunday between UTEP/USM).
So we can clinch 12th or better with two wins, but not all possible combinations of two wins will clinch.
[Image: deb54265418e1ef3382b89084b17fb70.jpg]
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2020 09:18 PM by owl at the moon.)
02-23-2020 09:15 PM
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