The answer is no. Schools get moved up not entire conferences. I used to tell that to MWC fans over a decade ago and now to AAC fans. There could be one, two, possibly four schools that could move up to a P5 league but ten years from now East Carolina, Tulane, Temple, SMU, Memphis and Tulsa will still be in a non power conference.

(02-01-2020 09:27 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I think they could, but really depends on 2 things:

1 Getting better bowl tie ins vs other Power conferences including their own NY6 tie in.

2 Staying together

No. See the WAC/MWC as an example of what happens when a conference gets too strong; top schools get raided.
See WAC (lost Arizona & Arizona St) in late 70’s
See MWC (lost Utah, TCU & BYU) in 2010/2011
Same league basically under a different name
The big fish eat the little fish and on and on it goes

(02-01-2020 02:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

2 huge rules of conference realignment:

(1) Sh*t ALWAYS rolls downhill in conference realignment.

(2) Think like a university president, NOT like a fan.

First, the old Big East thought exactly the way that you did - that if the Pac-16 happened, then they could take the Big 12 leftovers and become stronger.

The old Big East quickly found out that if you’re behind another conference today, you CANNOT leapfrog then. Ultimately, the old Big East was crushed and eventually kicked out of the power structure altogether. Similarly, C-USA thought that they could poach the remnants of the old Big East... and then C-USA got crushed. We can go down the line where the WAC has similar delusions of grandeur of poaching a weakened MWC... and the WAC up getting destroyed entirely. Rest assured, even if the Big 12 collapsed, left behind schools like Iowa State would still have the massive upper hand to poach the AAC and other leagues because they’ll have all of the exit fees, old conference distributions from the NCAA Tournament and bowl games, existing TV contracts and other assets that would dwarf the G5. Sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Second, university presidents make the decisions about who they let into the power structure. On-the-field/court results by themselves aren’t enough: they want the right *institutions* (NOT teams). I’ve said this before, but for all of the changes in conference realignment over the past 20 years, there were 63 “power” schools when the BCS started in 1996... and there is now a grand total of 65 power schools today. After all of that shuffling, the net change was that TCU (who was in the power system in the pre-BCS world), Utah and Louisville got elevated and Temple got downgraded. That’s it: a net change of plus 2. The point is that the system will NOT elevate an entire other conference to the power ranks. That’s simply not happening because we have seen that there is remarkable stasis with the membership of who is a power school and who isn’t.

Power *institutions* are largely flagship schools, other major public schools with flagship-like qualities (such as Texas A&M, UCLA, Michigan State, Purdue, etc.) and some top tier privates with key attributes (such as top academics and/or locations in major markets). There are zero directional public schools in the Power Five and the only true “city” public school in the power ranks is Louisville. (A school like Pitt is essentially a flagship-like research institution that happens to be in a city.) It might sound crazy to sports fans, but the two schools in the AAC that actually look the most like P5 *institutions* (which are different than teams) are Tulane and SMU. Otherwise, the core of the AAC is made up of city and directional public schools. We might see a couple of those schools get invites to the Big 12 eventually (e.g. I could see Cincinnati plus Texas politics getting Houston into the Big 12 someday), but there’s no way that the entire league gets elevated. University presidents are possibly the single most elitist and snobby group of people in all of America.

SMU and Tulane were once in power conferences.

You are right that nearly every P5 public is a flagship. There are only 5 P5 publics that aren't the "flagship" like Michigan or the land grant like Michigan St. Pitt and Louisville as you mention, Arizona St., Florida St. and Texas Tech. Texas Tech is in a huge state and is almost a "flagship" for West Texas. FSU, Arizona St. and Pitt are big research institutions in a state where the flagship and land grant are the same school. Plus Louisville is also the #2 school and quite large.

(02-01-2020 03:03 PM)texoma Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

You got that backwards. The remaining Big12 teams will pick who they want from the AAC and the MWC

Exactly and those like Cincy and Houston would gladly shake off their perceived lower conference mates like Tulsa and ECU. There are going to be 5-6 schools left in the XII if they get raided and those schools will be choosing which lucky few from the AAC and MWC to grace with the gift of slightly elevating ones school above those who they used to call partners.

Memphis, Houston, Cincy, UCF, CSU, BYU and Boise are to me the only real candidates as of now. Unless USF can wake up and be the program the Big East thought they could be or Temple makes a few NYD Bowls and makes the left behinds not care about traveling up to philly every now and then.

No

(02-01-2020 09:44 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 03:03 PM)texoma Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

You got that backwards. The remaining Big12 teams will pick who they want from the AAC and the MWC

Exactly and those like Cincy and Houston would gladly shake off their perceived lower conference mates like Tulsa and ECU. There are going to be 5-6 schools left in the XII if they get raided and those schools will be choosing which lucky few from the AAC and MWC to grace with the gift of slightly elevating ones school above those who they used to call partners.

Memphis, Houston, Cincy, UCF, CSU, BYU and Boise are to me the only real candidates as of now. Unless USF can wake up and be the program the Big East thought they could be or Temple makes a few NYD Bowls and makes the left behinds not care about traveling up to philly every now and then.

Houston and BYU should be in the Big XII right now.

(02-01-2020 10:31 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 09:44 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 03:03 PM)texoma Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

You got that backwards. The remaining Big12 teams will pick who they want from the AAC and the MWC

Exactly and those like Cincy and Houston would gladly shake off their perceived lower conference mates like Tulsa and ECU. There are going to be 5-6 schools left in the XII if they get raided and those schools will be choosing which lucky few from the AAC and MWC to grace with the gift of slightly elevating ones school above those who they used to call partners.

Memphis, Houston, Cincy, UCF, CSU, BYU and Boise are to me the only real candidates as of now. Unless USF can wake up and be the program the Big East thought they could be or Temple makes a few NYD Bowls and makes the left behinds not care about traveling up to philly every now and then.

Houston and BYU should be in the Big XII right now.

I think Cincy and Louisville should be in the XII right now if the leadership of the XII wasn't so short sighted. Could have taken the 3 best FB programs from the BE at that time and had a nice little eastern wing to the conference so WVU isn't out on an island. Plus annual games between the Cards and the Jayhawks would make the BBall side even deeper.

BYU tried to play hardball and got hung up on. The Big XII Texas membership is like a nightclub. Only so many allowed inside at once, if you let in too many the fire marshall is gonna shut it down. When A&M left a spot was finally open for TCU. So Houstons best chance is if Texas ever leaves but doesn't blow up the conference.

No. And no amount of PR spin or propaganda will change that.

Back to the OP:

The AAC:
Has never been
Is not now
Will never be

A "Power" conference.

The AAC can not truly become P6 without the approval of the P5, and that will never happen. So the answer is NO!

(02-01-2020 11:38 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  Back to the OP:

The AAC:
Has never been
Is not now
Will never be

A "Power" conference.

Technically it was for one year, 2013, as it inherited the Big East's AQ status.

(02-01-2020 09:27 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I think they could, but really depends on 2 things:

1 Getting better bowl tie ins vs other Power conferences including their own NY6 tie in.

2 Staying together

The other 5 won't let that happen.

(02-01-2020 09:27 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I think they could, but really depends on 2 things:

1 Getting better bowl tie ins vs other Power conferences including their own NY6 tie in.

2 Staying together

This succinctly summarizes why they can't: if there are schools in the AAC that develop sufficient value to allow (1), then some or all of those schools will get an invite into the P5 (or else into a former P5 conference leveraging their legacy status to make the best of it that they can), and so (2) won't happen.

Who holds the power to grant that status? Ultimately, the current P5 universities. What motive would they have to share their power?

The AAC could get closer in their media deal by adding BSU, BYU, etc...may shock the world and get to half of what the lower level P5s get. That’s the ceiling. Parity on the field with the bottom conferences of the P5, half the payout, maybe a contract bowl.

They will at best be a more powerful middling conference than they are now and on par with the ACC and PAC on the field year in and year out. That’s not a bad spot to be in, but any of their schools would still leave at the first opportunity to go to a P5 conference .

And one more thing on this topic ...

As a fan of Memphis and Cincinnati, I know quite well what it's like to have your athletics program "left behind" following a conference realignment. I was thrilled for Cincy and DePaul when they got the "call up" from C-USA to the Big East in the mid-2000s. But for Memphis, it was brutal. With the loss of UC, DU, USF, Louisville and Marquette, Memphis was left behind in a painfully mediocre league. And nobody "felt sorry" for the Tigers. And that's fine. No fans were concerned for Cincy when the Big East imploded and the Bearcat program was stuck in the AAC. And that's fine too. I get it.

If the Big 12 gets picked apart soon (which I feel it will), I will not have the mental energy to worry about the programs (likely Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State and TCU) that get "left out." Nor do I "feel sorry" for UConn (which badly wanted the Atlantic Coast instead of the Big East).

Having said this, I wish any program that was once part of the P5 structure and now is not (or won't be in the future) nothing but the best (in this case, let's say UConn). It's good karma to wish them luck. I know what it's like to have your program left behind so I want to be positive.

One day, Vanderbilt might be toasted from the power structure. I realize this. So I accept it for what it is. This is being driven overwhelming by high-profile football. If you are not "fully in the club" ... it is difficult to "partially of the club."

Power conferences are defined by power programs. Power programs have the potential and capability to compete for national championships annually. There are no programs in the G5 that truly have that label.

What is more likely is for a program or two to eventually be promoted into the P5, not an entire conference. There's enough dead weight at the bottom of the P5. There's no need to add to it further.

NO

(02-01-2020 02:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

2 huge rules of conference realignment:

(1) Sh*t ALWAYS rolls downhill in conference realignment.

(2) Think like a university president, NOT like a fan.

First, the old Big East thought exactly the way that you did - that if the Pac-16 happened, then they could take the Big 12 leftovers and become stronger.

The old Big East quickly found out that if you’re behind another conference today, you CANNOT leapfrog then. Ultimately, the old Big East was crushed and eventually kicked out of the power structure altogether. Similarly, C-USA thought that they could poach the remnants of the old Big East... and then C-USA got crushed. We can go down the line where the WAC has similar delusions of grandeur of poaching a weakened MWC... and the WAC up getting destroyed entirely. Rest assured, even if the Big 12 collapsed, left behind schools like Iowa State would still have the massive upper hand to poach the AAC and other leagues because they’ll have all of the exit fees, old conference distributions from the NCAA Tournament and bowl games, existing TV contracts and other assets that would dwarf the G5. Sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Second, university presidents make the decisions about who they let into the power structure. On-the-field/court results by themselves aren’t enough: they want the right *institutions* (NOT teams). I’ve said this before, but for all of the changes in conference realignment over the past 20 years, there were 63 “power” schools when the BCS started in 1996... and there is now a grand total of 65 power schools today. After all of that shuffling, the net change was that TCU (who was in the power system in the pre-BCS world), Utah and Louisville got elevated and Temple got downgraded. That’s it: a net change of plus 2. The point is that the system will NOT elevate an entire other conference to the power ranks. That’s simply not happening because we have seen that there is remarkable stasis with the membership of who is a power school and who isn’t.

Power *institutions* are largely flagship schools, other major public schools with flagship-like qualities (such as Texas A&M, UCLA, Michigan State, Purdue, etc.) and some top tier privates with key attributes (such as top academics and/or locations in major markets). There are zero directional public schools in the Power Five and the only true “city” public school in the power ranks is Louisville. (A school like Pitt is essentially a flagship-like research institution that happens to be in a city.) It might sound crazy to sports fans, but the two schools in the AAC that actually look the most like P5 *institutions* (which are different than teams) are Tulane and SMU. Otherwise, the core of the AAC is made up of city and directional public schools. We might see a couple of those schools get invites to the Big 12 eventually (e.g. I could see Cincinnati plus Texas politics getting Houston into the Big 12 someday), but there’s no way that the entire league gets elevated. University presidents are possibly the single most elitist and snobby group of people in all of America.

I generally agree with what you're saying (which tends to be true about most of your posts), but I definitely don't agree with your assessment of the Big East/Big XII situation. The Big East's attempts to pick up the pieces of the Big XII was exclusively predicated on picking up some of the remaining schools if the Pac-16 (that was anticipated to include Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State) came about. Specifically, the Big East was rumored to be discussing picking up the remaining schools with the exception of Baylor. Since Ken Starr (who was staring down the barrel of being relegated like Baylor's former SWC mates Rice, SMU and Houston) sprung into action and helped hold the Big XII together, I think this is less a matter of the Big East being weaker than the Big XII remnants and more a question of the Big East (minus Pitt and Syracuse) being weaker than the current Big XII (minus WVU and TCU). I don't think anybody in the Big East would have disagreed with that notion. Hence I think it's wrong to assert that the Big East tried to poach the current Big XII and got their asses handed to them. Few people pick a fight they know they can't win.

USFFan

Reading this thread, it's like you're BEGGING a certain poster to come in and post his wall of text about how the Big XII is never getting poached...



USFFan