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Expansion of the NCAA tournament
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-15-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Bruce has it right in post #50 in this thread: There are too many stakeholders with different interests.

The "little guys" would love it if every low-major conference's tournament champ got an automatic ticket to the first Thursday/Friday, even when it's a team that finished 9th in the regular season in the 32nd best conference and just got lucky for 3 days in a conference tournament.

But the high-major leagues won't agree to put more at-large teams on Tuesday/Wednesday unless it's part of a massive expansion of the tournament. CBS and Turner would agree. TV doesn't want early elimination of even *more* "names" that casual fans might recognize, and certainly don't want to pay more for getting fewer "name" teams playing on the first weekend where they start to make their money (even though the last two weekends produce the highest ratings).

The irony is assuming the current 68 team format it is better for the TV partners to have all at large teams playing in the First Four.

In the last NCAA Tournament played (2019), two of the First Four games were NC Central vs. North Dakota State and Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Prairie View A&M. Other than fans of those schools, who's watching those games? If instead we put the last four at large teams before the last four at large to make the field into the First Four games, those teams almost certainly would be more popular teams leading to better games. You'd rather see Prairie View A&M playing Duke (and Zion Williamson) than playing FDU.

Here's another advantage. In 2018, Virginia was the #1 overall seed and became the first (and still only) #1 seed to ever lose in the first round. From 1985-2000, the four worst teams in the field were #16 seeds. From 2001-2010, the two worst played in the "opening round game" for the right to play one of the #1 seeds and the third to fifth worst were the remaining #16 seeds. Now it's the four worst playing for #16 and the fifth and sixth worst becoming #16 seeds. If you're a #16 seed that doesn't have to play in Dayton, you would have been a #15 seed in the old days. Virginia might have been the #1 overall seed but UMBC in theory was a #15 seed. The #1's are supposed to play one of the worst teams in the field, especially the overall top seed. Now there is no excuse for Virginia to lose in the first round but if UVa played a First Four winner they don't lose that game. If you really want to protect the #1 seeds, you give them the bad #16 seeds in the first round rather than give them "#15 seeds" (and the #2 seeds #14 seeds and so on). I'd be willing to bet more upsets happen because the First Four games eliminate two "bad" teams from the get go and all of the teams are seeded lower than they would be if they didn't have to be in the "First Four".
07-15-2020 03:04 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-15-2020 01:52 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(07-15-2020 01:22 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  There is already over saturation of Day One and Two games with 16. Nobody watches them all, and frankly 4 is about the limit anyone can. This means there is no more money to be had in the first round, as advertising value is reduced with more dilution. Adding a second first four/eight venue could add enough revenue to pay for 4 more credits ... maybe. But it's a break even at best situation.

A 128-team tournament with 8 regions of 16 can be split as a Thursday-Sunday 1st Round -- with 16 games each day -- meaning there's no more overlap than before.

You'd have 8 sites with 8 games each -- either 4 Thu/Sat or 4 Fri/Sun.

Then you'd operate the 2nd/3rd rounds (64/32) the following week the same you operate the 1st/2nd rounds today, so on and so forth.

So you end up adding 8 sites to milk money from in the 1st Round, as hosting two quadrupleheaders -- one on the weekend -- makes it lucrative.

If TV ever would be willing to pay more $, the logistics workout without diluting the tv audience for games.

Your forgetting the credit cost. Each team requires adding $3.4M for a credit. There is not that kind of profit from a venue (need over $10M for 4 games to justify it, plus $1M for each on TV).

Viewership goes up the dramatically the deeper you get into the tournament. If you add an extra round, then it's like the first round of a Tennis major, first two rounds of games nobody watches on "the Ocho."

These schemes are money losers. The current formula is maxed out. But the P5 + Big East could well decide a tournament of their own could generate a bigger TV contract, and cut the mouths in half, effectively doubling their conference take for about the same revenue. This seems far more likely to me than an expanded NCAA tournament.
07-15-2020 03:06 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-15-2020 03:04 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(07-15-2020 02:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Bruce has it right in post #50 in this thread: There are too many stakeholders with different interests.

The "little guys" would love it if every low-major conference's tournament champ got an automatic ticket to the first Thursday/Friday, even when it's a team that finished 9th in the regular season in the 32nd best conference and just got lucky for 3 days in a conference tournament.

But the high-major leagues won't agree to put more at-large teams on Tuesday/Wednesday unless it's part of a massive expansion of the tournament. CBS and Turner would agree. TV doesn't want early elimination of even *more* "names" that casual fans might recognize, and certainly don't want to pay more for getting fewer "name" teams playing on the first weekend where they start to make their money (even though the last two weekends produce the highest ratings).

The irony is assuming the current 68 team format it is better for the TV partners to have all at large teams playing in the First Four.

The Tuesday/Wednesday games are nearly pointless from TV's point of view no matter who is in them. That's why they're on TruTV and not on CBS, TBS, or TNT. The only reason those games even exist is because there are more autobids now than when the tournament first had 64 teams, and the NCAA wanted to at least maintain the same number of at-large bids when new autobids were added.

Since there are still going to be 68 teams, the 8 lowest-ranked teams, #61-68 in the committee's ranking of 68 teams, should play on Selection Sunday, instead of some larger conferences having their tournament final on Sunday. Those Sunday games would draw at least as many viewers as the low-major conference finals that are on ESPN during "Championship Week", and TBS or TNT would want to air those games. NFL is over, MLB hasn't started yet, it's a good day to play those 4 games back to back. Have those 8 teams play in Dayton on that Sunday with the 4 winners advancing. There would then be 64 teams playing on Thursday/Friday as usual.
07-15-2020 05:10 PM
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sctvman Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
Mike DeCourcy had a column talking about a plan by Tulsa coach Frank Haith suggesting the NCAAs be expanded to 96 teams just for 2021. Of course it would help his Golden Hurricane...

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-bas...s03gc4js7p

But if you expanded the tournament, you’d have to do it for the women, too, especially in this Title IX era, and with some schools (including South Carolina and Baylor) having just as much popularity as the men over the last couple of years.

A 72 team event with four First Four games in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday would make sense. But if you get much larger, you’d have to stick more games on Tru or even CBSSN.

If you had a 96 or 128 team women’s tournament, you’d probably have to stick some games on ESPN+ or on ABC. This year was the first year the entire women’s tournament was supposed to be nationally televised on ESPN’s networks.

No more of the regionalization which the women’s tourney always had where if you lived in the home state for a specific game, you’d get that game only and no whip around coverage.

If you did expand the tourney, you’d need more sites, and smaller ones too. At 96 you could do four sites Tuesday, four sites Wednesday, eschewing Dayton. The Tuesday sites would be Thursday, Wednesday sites Friday. You’d have games on CBSSN, maybe nighttime games on CBS instead of a full day, but it’d still do better than most regular season games.

No games on Selection Sunday, and have an early afternoon Selection Show like what they do for the CFB Playoff. It’d get big ratings in March, even at 1pm. The women could play a day later (Wednesday/Thursday), on ESPN’s channels.

At 128 I think you’d have 32 games a day, but the huge spread would make a difference. You could start a pregame at 10am, have the first game start right on time at 11, then basically have games all day until about 1:30 or 2am.

A full Saturday in January or February routinely has 125-150 games. You could play the first 2 rounds in smaller arenas, 8-15K, and that would give a lot more cities a chance to host games, instead of the same 10-15 the NCAA always picks.

The second weekend would be bigger than the first weekend now, with less possible dud games. The Elite 8 would be at major arenas (MSG/Staples hosting perhaps every year), then the normal Final Four.
07-15-2020 09:12 PM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
Only if each conference gets at least two bids. Otherwise, no thanks.
07-15-2020 11:00 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-15-2020 11:00 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Only if each conference gets at least two bids. Otherwise, no thanks.

Financially, the only way a big expansion works is if the preliminary round units are not as big as the "main tournament" units.

So if, for simplicity, they are 1/2 of a main tournament unit, then guaranteeing each conference two bids guarantees the lower tier conference the equivalent of 1 unit: tournament winner and regular season champion or runner-up.

Guaranteeing each conference two bids points to a 96 school Tournament, with the top 8 in each region having a bye in the first round. Obviously this kills off the NIT, so this would have to be timed to the end of an NIT contract cycle.

Now, if instead of a locked bracket you have the bottom 64 in four regional play-in pools, 9v24, 10v23, 11v22, 12v21, 13v20, 14v19, 15v18, 16v17, and the main tournament bracket is filled out based on the ranking 9-16 of the winning teams, the bracket fillers have to pay attention to results to know who slots in where in the bracket, and "need to know" turns for some percentage into "need to watch" and so the preliminary tier is roped in as a lesser contract in the media package.

For the six high major conferences, the tweener, and the three high mid-major conferences, they each also get two autobids, removing nine to ten high ranking schools the at-large bid pool, so while not a pro forma expansion of at-larges, it has a similar effect.

Now, to be clear, the market value of these 32 preliminary round games will not be equal to 50% of the average value of a main tournament game, so 1/2 unit for a preliminary round game is "overpaying", which will be reflected in each unit being watered down to some extent.

Rather, it gives more tournament slots to high majors, and probably on average to the tweener and high mid major conferences, and gives the mid-major conferences normally one and often two higher seeded teams in their first (preliminary) tournament round game.
(This post was last modified: 07-16-2020 12:02 AM by BruceMcF.)
07-15-2020 11:49 PM
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TOPSTRAIGHT Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
Just leave it alone. Current number is fine IMHO.
07-16-2020 02:37 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-15-2020 11:00 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Only if each conference gets at least two bids. Otherwise, no thanks.

A lot of conferences don't deserve one bid, much less two.
07-16-2020 09:56 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-16-2020 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-15-2020 11:00 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Only if each conference gets at least two bids. Otherwise, no thanks.

A lot of conferences don't deserve one bid, much less two.

I am sure the media partners tend to agree. Everyone loves Cinderella, but far fewer love the Ugly Stepsisters that are hoping to impress as the ball.
07-16-2020 01:15 PM
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Shox Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(02-01-2020 12:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I like the idea of having the play in games Thursday and Friday and moving the round of 64 to Saturday and Sunday.

The round of 32 and round of 16 get played on the second weekend.

Elite 8 games get played the next Thursday and Friday followed by the two final 4 games Saturday and Sunday night. Tuesday is your title game.


Personally I love the play in games and hope they go to 74. They make for great theatre as they are usually low majors schools playing an equally matched ooppopponet in front of 15k with a nationwide tv audience for the right to play a Duke. The athletes are totally into it and give max effort and play like it's a national title game. I would rather get rid of the bubble play in games that feature schools with marginal resumes who are sometimes indifferent to being there because the season didn't go as expected.
07-16-2020 01:37 PM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-16-2020 01:15 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(07-16-2020 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-15-2020 11:00 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Only if each conference gets at least two bids. Otherwise, no thanks.

A lot of conferences don't deserve one bid, much less two.

I am sure the media partners tend to agree. Everyone loves Cinderella, but far fewer love the Ugly Stepsisters that are hoping to impress as the ball.

Nobody likes seeing 15 ACC, 14 SEC 14 B1G members either. Minimum two bids for all leagues.
07-16-2020 01:42 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-15-2020 09:12 PM)sctvman Wrote:  Mike DeCourcy had a column talking about a plan by Tulsa coach Frank Haith suggesting the NCAAs be expanded to 96 teams just for 2021. Of course it would help his Golden Hurricane...

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-bas...s03gc4js7p

That article talks about adding another week to the tournament "on the back end", and that doesn't work for CBS and Turner. CBS has the Masters the weekend after the usual weekend for the Final Four, and Turner has the NBA playoffs starting a few days after the Masters.

The only way to add an extra week to the tournament and satisfy CBS/Turner would be to add it before the normal first week, making the new first weekend of the tournament what is now the weekend that ends conference tournaments. In 2021 for example, that would mean leaving the Final Four on April 3-5 and playing the first weekend, if it's only one round, on the weekend of March 13-14. CBS and Turner wouldn't want to pay more than they are already paying if you just give them a 32-team first round on the Tuesday/Wednesday before the usual first weekend, given that the ratings are likely to be much lower than either the usual first weekend or on a Saturday/Sunday.

Even if you accommodate CBS and Turner that way, adding either an extra weekend or a full schedule on the first Tuesday/Wednesday risks fan fatigue and might lower the TV ratings for what is normally the first weekend. So CBS or Turner would keep telling the NCAA to stick with the current schedule and forget about a tournament of 96 or 128 teams.
07-16-2020 02:06 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-16-2020 02:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-15-2020 09:12 PM)sctvman Wrote:  Mike DeCourcy had a column talking about a plan by Tulsa coach Frank Haith suggesting the NCAAs be expanded to 96 teams just for 2021. Of course it would help his Golden Hurricane...

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-bas...s03gc4js7p

That article talks about adding another week to the tournament "on the back end", and that doesn't work for CBS and Turner. CBS has the Masters the weekend after the usual weekend for the Final Four, and Turner has the NBA playoffs starting a few days after the Masters.

The only way to add an extra week to the tournament and satisfy CBS/Turner would be to add it before the normal first week, making the new first weekend of the tournament what is now the weekend that ends conference tournaments. In 2021 for example, that would mean leaving the Final Four on April 3-5 and playing the first weekend, if it's only one round, on the weekend of March 13-14. CBS and Turner wouldn't want to pay more than they are already paying if you just give them a 32-team first round on the Tuesday/Wednesday before the usual first weekend, given that the ratings are likely to be much lower than either the usual first weekend or on a Saturday/Sunday.

Even if you accommodate CBS and Turner that way, adding either an extra weekend or a full schedule on the first Tuesday/Wednesday risks fan fatigue and might lower the TV ratings for what is normally the first weekend. So CBS or Turner would keep telling the NCAA to stick with the current schedule and forget about a tournament of 96 or 128 teams.

If they put the Final Four on TBS and National Championship on CBS, there's no conflict with the Masters or NBA Playoffs.
07-16-2020 03:22 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-16-2020 03:22 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(07-16-2020 02:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-15-2020 09:12 PM)sctvman Wrote:  Mike DeCourcy had a column talking about a plan by Tulsa coach Frank Haith suggesting the NCAAs be expanded to 96 teams just for 2021. Of course it would help his Golden Hurricane...

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-bas...s03gc4js7p

That article talks about adding another week to the tournament "on the back end", and that doesn't work for CBS and Turner. CBS has the Masters the weekend after the usual weekend for the Final Four, and Turner has the NBA playoffs starting a few days after the Masters.

The only way to add an extra week to the tournament and satisfy CBS/Turner would be to add it before the normal first week, making the new first weekend of the tournament what is now the weekend that ends conference tournaments. In 2021 for example, that would mean leaving the Final Four on April 3-5 and playing the first weekend, if it's only one round, on the weekend of March 13-14. CBS and Turner wouldn't want to pay more than they are already paying if you just give them a 32-team first round on the Tuesday/Wednesday before the usual first weekend, given that the ratings are likely to be much lower than either the usual first weekend or on a Saturday/Sunday.

Even if you accommodate CBS and Turner that way, adding either an extra weekend or a full schedule on the first Tuesday/Wednesday risks fan fatigue and might lower the TV ratings for what is normally the first weekend. So CBS or Turner would keep telling the NCAA to stick with the current schedule and forget about a tournament of 96 or 128 teams.

If they put the Final Four on TBS and National Championship on CBS, there's no conflict with the Masters or NBA Playoffs.

The Final Four being TV competition for the Masters would be unacceptable to both CBS and Turner.

The huge audiences for the Final Four that justify what CBS and Turner pay are built on huge numbers of casual sports fans, not on the small number of hoop heads like me who even watch TBT and NBA summer league and would watch Euroleague games if they were available to us. Getting those huge audiences requires being the clear best sporting event to watch that weekend.
07-16-2020 03:37 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
I've proposed a 96 team field, where the top eight conference selections get a bye into the second week. The other 24 conferences send 64 teams who play down in the first week to 16 teams which then advance. The seeding for the second week's round of 64 isn't set until you know which 16 teams advance, because some of those would merit a much better seed than #13-#16. Gonzaga, for example, or last year's situation where 3 teams from those 24 conferences might have earned #1 or #2 seeds.

Of course, that means that those 24 conferences must finish their regular season plus conference championship in time to establish the 64 teams that will make the tourney field. In my proposal, the top 16 seeds in the first week's games would host a four team subregional on their home court. No neutral site games, which would likely be poorly attended. Does that give an advantage to a Gonzaga, Dayton or SDSU? You bet. I don't have a problem with that. We want the best teams to advance to the second week.
07-16-2020 07:34 PM
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sctvman Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
Yep. And if the Final Four was moved back a week, Jim Nantz would have to pick one or the other. The Masters or the Final Four. And he is not giving up the Masters. And CBS is not giving The Masters up after 65+ years.
07-16-2020 07:56 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-16-2020 01:42 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Nobody likes seeing 15 ACC, 14 SEC 14 B1G members either. Minimum two bids for all leagues.

I don't think it would go that far with expansion to 96 but one bid per league ... but as far as the media types being unhappy to see 15 ACC, 14 SEC and 14 Big Ten schools ... I am skeptical about that.

Present that as a possible outcome of some expansion scenario and it's seems likely they would start to get interested in running the numbers.
07-17-2020 02:48 AM
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army56mike Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
I’d like to see 96 teams get in. The more tournament games their are the better.
07-17-2020 06:37 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Expansion of the NCAA tournament
(07-17-2020 06:37 AM)army56mike Wrote:  I’d like to see 96 teams get in. The more tournament games their are the better.

"But it would kill the NIT."

"Wait, you are saying they still play the NIT?"
07-17-2020 08:43 AM
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