(01-28-2020 12:57 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:01 PM)Statefan Wrote:  The WSJ's methodology lowers the book value for schools located in the same Metro Area.

This affects Duke/UNC/NCSU as well as GT/UGA, UCLA/USC, and Stanford/Cal

If you were worth more you would be earning more. You're last for a reason. You don't get the eyeballs that other conferences get in spite of having the largest footprint. Hopefully the ACCN revenue puts you ahead of the PAC.

I guess I really can't communicate anymore. I was not talking about the ACC. Ryan Brewer, upon who this WSJ info is based states the following that his "study calculates what a college team would be worth on the open market if it could be bought and sold like a professional sports franchise. Brewer analyzes each program’s revenues and expenses along with cash-flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections".

What I was attempting to convey is that two of more college programs in the same market cannibalize that market, reducing their individual value as a franchise. It would be like comparing the value of the Yankees to the Mets if the Dodgers were also in NYC. The beauty of the value of a UT or Ohio State is that they have zero competition in their home metro and are the only game in town. Scarcity drives the demand for tickets and other sales.

It is not by happenstance that to maximize value no NFL or MLB franchise in the same metro is in the same division or league. Case in point the Rams and the Chargers, Dodgers and Angels, Jets and the Giants, Mets and the Yankees, Cubs and the White Sox.

There are 13 million people in the LA metro and the split for UCLA and USC is 6.5 million each. In San Francisco Stanford and Cal split a metro of 4.7 million. In Atlanta UGa and GT split 6 million people. In the Research Triangle of NC, Duke, UNC, and NC State split only 2.7 people. In market competition reduces profits and reduces value.

I got that before you stated it. There are many more factors to be considered than this one. But, it has a reality of its own. I was merely pointing out that aside from the fact that you have 4 schools in 1 P conference in the State of North Carolina which is really your market you are still drawing some kind of mix around 2.5 million per school give or take.

But even in the midst of that reality you have to be able to consistently mobilize your 2.5 million if you want to earn more. Consolidation is pairing brands and breaking up happy families because it is the only way for one or two of those 4 to distinguish itself not only above the others it competes with in state, but in order to establish a broader following beyond your region by regularly playing other schools who draw the eyes of the nation.

Texas elevated Baylor, T.C.U. and to a certain extent Tech and suddenly couldn't dominate its own state because each of those had the same branding and developed their own niche within the state. Toss in A&M and syphon off some more for Arkansas and the two Oklahoma's and pretty soon there wasn't enough to go around. Now thankfully UT built its national market years ago. But their downturn has more to do with too many ladles in the well than it does with Texas. I think they'll correct that by thinning those associations at least a bit in the future.

The ACC's northern quarter is in pro sports digs, it's bottom quarter is comprised largely of 2nd schools in their respective states, and the rest are privates. Then between Virginia and North Carolina you account for almost half of your total membership. Toss in the many extras that people have on the coast with which to fill their time and you get what you get.

Schools with branding are going to have to separate themselves out and establish a community of other brands to maximize their futures not only for sports, but for enrollment and exposure. Within a decade competition for students will be fierce.

(01-27-2020 07:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 07:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 07:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So if the top Big 12 and ACC schools can’t beat the SEC and Big 10 in media revenue and they don’t want to join them either because that would give up too much autonomy could they piece an alliance together that would at least get them payouts that are close to on par with those leagues. I’m thinking smaller is better so:

Big American West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas
Big American East: Florida St, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, WVU/VT

8 game conference schedule. Alternate the CCG host site between Arlington (even yrs) and Jacksonville (odd yrs).

That’s a pretty nice bundle of media rights that networks would like to have, particularly FOX or CBS who are mostly shut out of the Southeast by ESPN.

Would the schools go for it in say 2037?

I think your fallout is the ACC adds UCF and USF and potentially another AAC school depending on if they lose an odd or even number of schools.

Houston gets in the Big 12 and possibly Cincy, Memphis, SMU, BYU, and/or Boise too.

No. There aren't enough national brands. Now you have 3 national brands and 1 strong regional brand.

That’s not too far off from the SEC and Big Ten though and there’s less filler.

The Big Ten has 3 national brands in Ohio St, Mich, and Penn St. that’s comparable to Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida St.

Nebraska is a fading power while Clemson is a rising one. Their present state I think they average out but Clemson is going to overtake the Huskers.

Both leagues have their token basketball bluebloods: Kansas and Indiana.

Mich St, Iowa, and Wisconsin form a solid supporting cast the way Miami, Louisville, and WVU/VT would serve.

That leaves the filler: TTU and Okla St compared to a deeper filler of Minn, Illinois, N’western, Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland.

Now let’s throw in a pot sweetener: ND as an 11th for Olympic sports and 5 football games a year. You might have the Irish visiting Austin, Stillwater, Miami, Blacksburg/Huntington, and Clemson one year and then Norman, Lubbock, Manhattan, Tallahassee, and Louisville the next. Now that’s going to draw some eyeballs.

Let me think:. Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Syracuse, Miami, UNC, Duke, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, K-State, Georgia Tech, UVa, WVU, Louisville, TCU. NC State, Iowa State, Baylor, BC, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest are left out, but I can see the SEC scooping NC State up. Big Ten might go after BC & Pittsburgh. Definitely a lot of national brands in football & basketball.

(01-27-2020 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 07:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So if the top Big 12 and ACC schools can’t beat the SEC and Big 10 in media revenue and they don’t want to join them either because that would give up too much autonomy could they piece an alliance together that would at least get them payouts that are close to on par with those leagues. I’m thinking smaller is better so:

Big American West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas
Big American East: Florida St, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, WVU/VT

8 game conference schedule. Alternate the CCG host site between Arlington (even yrs) and Jacksonville (odd yrs).

That’s a pretty nice bundle of media rights that networks would like to have, particularly FOX or CBS who are mostly shut out of the Southeast by ESPN.

Would the schools go for it in say 2037?

I think your fallout is the ACC adds UCF and USF and potentially another AAC school depending on if they lose an odd or even number of schools.

Houston gets in the Big 12 and possibly Cincy, Memphis, SMU, BYU, and/or Boise too.

The Total Value of the SEC in terms of its economic impact is:$7,491,918,011

The Average Value of an SEC School in terms of economic impact is: $535,137,001


The Total Value of the B1G in terms of its economic impact is: $5,380,814,258

The Average Value of a B1G School in terms of economic impact is: $384,343,876


The Total Value of the Big12 in terms of its economic impact is:$3,537,219,087

The Average Value of a Big12 School in terms of its economic impact is: $353,721,909


The Total Value of the PAC in terms of its economic impact is: $3,008,222,679

The Average Value of a PAC School in terms of its economic impact is: $250,685,223


The Total Value of the ACC in terms of its economic impact is: $2,378,969,876

The Average Value of an ACC School in terms of its economic impact is: $169,926,420

These valuations are provided annually (1 year in arrears) by the WSJ

********************************************************
Here are the individual valuations of your suggested conference:

1. Texas $1,105,493,378
2. Oklahoma $885,558,053
3. Oklahoma State $270,953,731
4. Texas Tech $244,097,131
5. Kansas $208,020,519

6. Clemson $298,051,865
7. Florida State $289,776,745
8. Virginia Tech $278,315,358
9. Miami $193,474,391
10. Louisville $175,765,264

The Total Valuation for your conference is: $3,949,506,435
The Average per School for your conference is: $394,950,644

So by sticking with a 10 team conference and taking the top brands of both the Big 12 and the ACC and you came pretty close to picking the right 10 you are nowhere near catching the SEC in Total Value or Average Value. You can't catch the Big 10 in Total Value (even if you add another 4 schools you won't get there) but you can catch and slightly pass them in Per School Average.

But don't be fooled by that since half of the value is wrapped up in Texas and Oklahoma. Now if you added Notre Dame to that you could catch the Big 10 in total value with the right combination of 14 schools and pass them in average value for a school.

Notre Dame's valuation of their economic impact is $913,401,562.

So what schools do you have to include to get there?
From the Big 12:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Kansas State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. Kansas

7. Texas Christian
8. Iowa State

From the ACC:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Virginia Tech
4. Georgia Tech

5. Miami
(6. N.C. State)
(7. Louisville)

Independents:
1. Notre Dame


If you want the Best 14 which could form a conference of virtually equal value with the Big 10 and surpass it in Per School Value then this is your conference. The schools in ( ) are the next best two in value to take you to 16.

If the Big 10 added Virginia and Syracuse to get to 16 it wouldn't affect the overall value by much.

Likewise if the SEC added Duke and North Carolina to get to 16 it wouldn't affect the overall value by much.

Then you will have created 3 conferences in which the SEC has a slight advantage over the other two.

Getting left out would be: Baylor, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Wake Forest The bolded teams shows you why the ACC was successful in raiding the OBE of its football schools.


Now Muskie there's the answer to your question. You guys can mull that over but it wouldn't be a bad solution if equity is what you are looking for.

So if ESPN and FOX wanted to maximize their profits without making Texas and Oklahoma move they would do this.

New Big 12:
Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Louisville, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

New Big 10:
Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Syracuse
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

New SEC:
Auburn, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee
Duke, Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt
Alabama, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M

That would be an interesting enough approach, but it won't work without getting N.D. to go all in with Oklahoma and Texas.

What cracks me up about all of this TV money stuff is that I remember when ND was getting $9 million a year from NBC back in the Nineties the commentary was that ND was "greedy".

I recall that rat bastard Joe Paterno saying when ND signed the deal:

"Notre Dame is no longer an educational institution. It is now a banking institution."



Now...greed is apparently good.....because other schools now make a lot of TV money.

Somehow, along the way, it became quite an acceptable thing to be "greedy".

(01-28-2020 06:04 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 07:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So if the top Big 12 and ACC schools can’t beat the SEC and Big 10 in media revenue and they don’t want to join them either because that would give up too much autonomy could they piece an alliance together that would at least get them payouts that are close to on par with those leagues. I’m thinking smaller is better so:

Big American West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas
Big American East: Florida St, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, WVU/VT

8 game conference schedule. Alternate the CCG host site between Arlington (even yrs) and Jacksonville (odd yrs).

That’s a pretty nice bundle of media rights that networks would like to have, particularly FOX or CBS who are mostly shut out of the Southeast by ESPN.

Would the schools go for it in say 2037?

I think your fallout is the ACC adds UCF and USF and potentially another AAC school depending on if they lose an odd or even number of schools.

Houston gets in the Big 12 and possibly Cincy, Memphis, SMU, BYU, and/or Boise too.

The Total Value of the SEC in terms of its economic impact is:$7,491,918,011

The Average Value of an SEC School in terms of economic impact is: $535,137,001


The Total Value of the B1G in terms of its economic impact is: $5,380,814,258

The Average Value of a B1G School in terms of economic impact is: $384,343,876


The Total Value of the Big12 in terms of its economic impact is:$3,537,219,087

The Average Value of a Big12 School in terms of its economic impact is: $353,721,909


The Total Value of the PAC in terms of its economic impact is: $3,008,222,679

The Average Value of a PAC School in terms of its economic impact is: $250,685,223


The Total Value of the ACC in terms of its economic impact is: $2,378,969,876

The Average Value of an ACC School in terms of its economic impact is: $169,926,420

These valuations are provided annually (1 year in arrears) by the WSJ

********************************************************
Here are the individual valuations of your suggested conference:

1. Texas $1,105,493,378
2. Oklahoma $885,558,053
3. Oklahoma State $270,953,731
4. Texas Tech $244,097,131
5. Kansas $208,020,519

6. Clemson $298,051,865
7. Florida State $289,776,745
8. Virginia Tech $278,315,358
9. Miami $193,474,391
10. Louisville $175,765,264

The Total Valuation for your conference is: $3,949,506,435
The Average per School for your conference is: $394,950,644

So by sticking with a 10 team conference and taking the top brands of both the Big 12 and the ACC and you came pretty close to picking the right 10 you are nowhere near catching the SEC in Total Value or Average Value. You can't catch the Big 10 in Total Value (even if you add another 4 schools you won't get there) but you can catch and slightly pass them in Per School Average.

But don't be fooled by that since half of the value is wrapped up in Texas and Oklahoma. Now if you added Notre Dame to that you could catch the Big 10 in total value with the right combination of 14 schools and pass them in average value for a school.

Notre Dame's valuation of their economic impact is $913,401,562.

So what schools do you have to include to get there?
From the Big 12:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Kansas State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. Kansas

7. Texas Christian
8. Iowa State

From the ACC:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Virginia Tech
4. Georgia Tech

5. Miami
(6. N.C. State)
(7. Louisville)

Independents:
1. Notre Dame


If you want the Best 14 which could form a conference of virtually equal value with the Big 10 and surpass it in Per School Value then this is your conference. The schools in ( ) are the next best two in value to take you to 16.

If the Big 10 added Virginia and Syracuse to get to 16 it wouldn't affect the overall value by much.

Likewise if the SEC added Duke and North Carolina to get to 16 it wouldn't affect the overall value by much.

Then you will have created 3 conferences in which the SEC has a slight advantage over the other two.

Getting left out would be: Baylor, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Wake Forest The bolded teams shows you why the ACC was successful in raiding the OBE of its football schools.


Now Muskie there's the answer to your question. You guys can mull that over but it wouldn't be a bad solution if equity is what you are looking for.

So if ESPN and FOX wanted to maximize their profits without making Texas and Oklahoma move they would do this.

New Big 12:
Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Louisville, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

New Big 10:
Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Syracuse
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

New SEC:
Auburn, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee
Duke, Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt
Alabama, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M

That would be an interesting enough approach, but it won't work without getting N.D. to go all in with Oklahoma and Texas.

What cracks me up about all of this TV money stuff is that I remember when ND was getting $9 million a year from NBC back in the Nineties the commentary was that ND was "greedy".

I recall that rat bastard Joe Paterno saying when ND signed the deal:

"Notre Dame is no longer an educational institution. It is now a banking institution."



Now...greed is apparently good.....because other schools now make a lot of TV money.

Somehow, along the way, it became quite an acceptable thing to be "greedy".

Well that's what happens when two sports rights attorneys become the commissioners of the SEC and Big 10, a socialite becomes the commissioner of the PAC, and a good old boy hack uses the commissioner of the ACC job to get his kid perks. I'm sure all of them in one form or the other were disciples of Gordon Gekko.

Texas
TCU
Oklahoma
Kansas
Florida State
Georgia Tech

Miami
Clemson
UNC
VT
Pitt
WVU (you could argue for Duke, but once Coach K retires, will they have the same draw? You could also argue for NC State, UVA, Syracuse, or BC based on their markets.)

That captures all the best markets and the teams that draw. The thing is there's no logic to the conference. It's made up of various parts that aren't necessarily connected to each other. You'll never get SEC or B1G level cohesion on goals and things like turnout at the CCG.

(01-28-2020 10:52 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 06:04 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 07:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So if the top Big 12 and ACC schools can’t beat the SEC and Big 10 in media revenue and they don’t want to join them either because that would give up too much autonomy could they piece an alliance together that would at least get them payouts that are close to on par with those leagues. I’m thinking smaller is better so:

Big American West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas
Big American East: Florida St, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, WVU/VT

8 game conference schedule. Alternate the CCG host site between Arlington (even yrs) and Jacksonville (odd yrs).

That’s a pretty nice bundle of media rights that networks would like to have, particularly FOX or CBS who are mostly shut out of the Southeast by ESPN.

Would the schools go for it in say 2037?

I think your fallout is the ACC adds UCF and USF and potentially another AAC school depending on if they lose an odd or even number of schools.

Houston gets in the Big 12 and possibly Cincy, Memphis, SMU, BYU, and/or Boise too.

The Total Value of the SEC in terms of its economic impact is:$7,491,918,011

The Average Value of an SEC School in terms of economic impact is: $535,137,001


The Total Value of the B1G in terms of its economic impact is: $5,380,814,258

The Average Value of a B1G School in terms of economic impact is: $384,343,876


The Total Value of the Big12 in terms of its economic impact is:$3,537,219,087

The Average Value of a Big12 School in terms of its economic impact is: $353,721,909


The Total Value of the PAC in terms of its economic impact is: $3,008,222,679

The Average Value of a PAC School in terms of its economic impact is: $250,685,223


The Total Value of the ACC in terms of its economic impact is: $2,378,969,876

The Average Value of an ACC School in terms of its economic impact is: $169,926,420

These valuations are provided annually (1 year in arrears) by the WSJ

********************************************************
Here are the individual valuations of your suggested conference:

1. Texas $1,105,493,378
2. Oklahoma $885,558,053
3. Oklahoma State $270,953,731
4. Texas Tech $244,097,131
5. Kansas $208,020,519

6. Clemson $298,051,865
7. Florida State $289,776,745
8. Virginia Tech $278,315,358
9. Miami $193,474,391
10. Louisville $175,765,264

The Total Valuation for your conference is: $3,949,506,435
The Average per School for your conference is: $394,950,644

So by sticking with a 10 team conference and taking the top brands of both the Big 12 and the ACC and you came pretty close to picking the right 10 you are nowhere near catching the SEC in Total Value or Average Value. You can't catch the Big 10 in Total Value (even if you add another 4 schools you won't get there) but you can catch and slightly pass them in Per School Average.

But don't be fooled by that since half of the value is wrapped up in Texas and Oklahoma. Now if you added Notre Dame to that you could catch the Big 10 in total value with the right combination of 14 schools and pass them in average value for a school.

Notre Dame's valuation of their economic impact is $913,401,562.

So what schools do you have to include to get there?
From the Big 12:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Kansas State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. Kansas

7. Texas Christian
8. Iowa State

From the ACC:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Virginia Tech
4. Georgia Tech

5. Miami
(6. N.C. State)
(7. Louisville)

Independents:
1. Notre Dame


If you want the Best 14 which could form a conference of virtually equal value with the Big 10 and surpass it in Per School Value then this is your conference. The schools in ( ) are the next best two in value to take you to 16.

If the Big 10 added Virginia and Syracuse to get to 16 it wouldn't affect the overall value by much.

Likewise if the SEC added Duke and North Carolina to get to 16 it wouldn't affect the overall value by much.

Then you will have created 3 conferences in which the SEC has a slight advantage over the other two.

Getting left out would be: Baylor, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Wake Forest The bolded teams shows you why the ACC was successful in raiding the OBE of its football schools.


Now Muskie there's the answer to your question. You guys can mull that over but it wouldn't be a bad solution if equity is what you are looking for.

So if ESPN and FOX wanted to maximize their profits without making Texas and Oklahoma move they would do this.

New Big 12:
Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Louisville, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

New Big 10:
Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Syracuse
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

New SEC:
Auburn, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee
Duke, Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt
Alabama, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M

That would be an interesting enough approach, but it won't work without getting N.D. to go all in with Oklahoma and Texas.

What cracks me up about all of this TV money stuff is that I remember when ND was getting $9 million a year from NBC back in the Nineties the commentary was that ND was "greedy".

I recall that rat bastard Joe Paterno saying when ND signed the deal:

"Notre Dame is no longer an educational institution. It is now a banking institution."



Now...greed is apparently good.....because other schools now make a lot of TV money.

Somehow, along the way, it became quite an acceptable thing to be "greedy".

Well that's what happens when two sports rights attorneys become the commissioners of the SEC and Big 10, a socialite becomes the commissioner of the PAC, and a good old boy hack uses the commissioner of the ACC job to get his kid perks. I'm sure all of them in one form or the other were disciples of Gordon Gekko.

Hypocrisy abounds.

The WSJ number cited are useless, as they reflect the value of ticket revenues, donations, etc. I read the original post as trying to generate an equivalent TV payout from a group of schools currently in the B12 and ACC.

This requires including schools that bring TV markets in which they are a dominant player and/or schools that are well recognized national brands. The B1G and SEC accomplish mission one by primarily featuring state flagship schools. They're not just a dominant player in one TV market, they're dominant in every TV market in a state. The larger the state the better. Essentially, you need schools that will 1) support a national television contract equivalent to the B1G and SEC and 2) support a conference network that is able to demand high subscription prices in as many households as possible. Finally, I'm assuming, as others seem to be, that Notre Dame is not an available choice.

Here's my conference, with discussion:

- Texas - the first and most obvious choice as the flagship school of the second largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football.
- UNC - Flagship school of the second largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G. Established national brand in basketball.
- UVA - Flagship school of the third largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G.
- Florida St. - Number 2 public research university in the third largest state in the US. Established national brand in football.
- VT - Land Grant school of the third largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G. Ensures total domination in Virginia.
- Clemson - Land Grant school of the 23rd largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football.
- Syracuse - Private school, but provides an entry in the largest state without an entry in the SEC or B1G, and the fourth largest state overall. It is dominant in the Upstate New York, a region with a population of 10 million, in a manner similar to a state flagship school. Provides access to the NYC TV market to a lesser extent. Established national brand in basketball.
- Oklahoma - Flagship school in the 28th largest state, a state without an SEC or B1G member. Established national brand in football. Brings national interest football rivalry with Texas to the table.
- Kansas - Flagship school in the 35th largest state, a state without an SEC or B1G member. Established national brand in basketball.
- Texas Tech/Baylor/TCU - Any one of these provides a second entry in the second largest state in the U.S.
- Duke - Private school, but provides a second entry in a large state that doesn't share territory with the SEC or B1G. The dominant national brand school in basketball. Brings national interest basketball rivalry with UNC to the table.
- Miami - Private school, but provides a second entry in the third largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football, although that brand has faded somewhat in recent years. It is dominant in South Florida, a region with a population of 7 million that is also one of the 3 or 4 best football recruiting areas in the U.S.

I guess I'd throw in Georgia Tech and Louisville to round out 14.

Obviously, my group is much more heavily weighted to the ACC. Texas and Oklahoma bring a huge percentage of the TV value to the B12. Indeed, my alternative answer to the OP might be just to add those two schools to the ACC as is.

The answer to the OP question is "of course you could".
Would it make sense geographically? No.
Would it be cohesive? Certainly not at first, maybe never.
Is it likely to happen in real life? No.
...but it would pay well if done right.

Key pieces (IMO):

6 from the West (enough to allow for short away games)
Texas + 2 other school from that state (probably Texas Tech and TCU), Oklahoma + OSU + Kansas

10 from the East (optimized for football rivalries)
Miami, Florida State, Ga Tech, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Va Tech, Louisville, Pitt, WVU

These are basically the most valuable properties weighted 80% football, 20% basketball. Tough cuts to keep it at just 16, but you start getting into diminishing returns (you could even make a case for FEWER than 16).

(01-28-2020 01:29 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The WSJ number cited are useless, as they reflect the value of ticket revenues, donations, etc. I read the original post as trying to generate an equivalent TV payout from a group of schools currently in the B12 and ACC.

This requires including schools that bring TV markets in which they are a dominant player and/or schools that are well recognized national brands. The B1G and SEC accomplish mission one by primarily featuring state flagship schools. They're not just a dominant player in one TV market, they're dominant in every TV market in a state. The larger the state the better. Essentially, you need schools that will 1) support a national television contract equivalent to the B1G and SEC and 2) support a conference network that is able to demand high subscription prices in as many households as possible. Finally, I'm assuming, as others seem to be, that Notre Dame is not an available choice.

Here's my conference, with discussion:

- Texas - the first and most obvious choice as the flagship school of the second largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football.
- UNC - Flagship school of the second largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G. Established national brand in basketball.
- UVA - Flagship school of the third largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G.
- Florida St. - Number 2 public research university in the third largest state in the US. Established national brand in football.
- VT - Land Grant school of the third largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G. Ensures total domination in Virginia.
- Clemson - Land Grant school of the 23rd largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football.
- Syracuse - Private school, but provides an entry in the largest state without an entry in the SEC or B1G, and the fourth largest state overall. It is dominant in the Upstate New York, a region with a population of 10 million, in a manner similar to a state flagship school. Provides access to the NYC TV market to a lesser extent. Established national brand in basketball.
- Oklahoma - Flagship school in the 28th largest state, a state without an SEC or B1G member. Established national brand in football. Brings national interest football rivalry with Texas to the table.
- Kansas - Flagship school in the 35th largest state, a state without an SEC or B1G member. Established national brand in basketball.
- Texas Tech/Baylor/TCU - Any one of these provides a second entry in the second largest state in the U.S.
- Duke - Private school, but provides a second entry in a large state that doesn't share territory with the SEC or B1G. The dominant national brand school in basketball. Brings national interest basketball rivalry with UNC to the table.
- Miami - Private school, but provides a second entry in the third largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football, although that brand has faded somewhat in recent years. It is dominant in South Florida, a region with a population of 7 million that is also one of the 3 or 4 best football recruiting areas in the U.S.

I guess I'd throw in Georgia Tech and Louisville to round out 14.

Obviously, my group is much more heavily weighted to the ACC. Texas and Oklahoma bring a huge percentage of the TV value to the B12. Indeed, my alternative answer to the OP might be just to add those two schools to the ACC as is.

The schools who sell the most tickets and get the largest donations are the same schools that have large audience draw. They are also the ones which are most profitable to add to a conference because they travel well and fill up road venues thereby creating a synergy of earnings since the demand means they also command the highest ticket prices. It's the small venues and average athletic donations that help to keep the ACC so underwhelmingly paid, especially when you add in low viewer participation within the footprint.

The pecking order exists for a reason, as do the payouts in media revenue. These are not things that occur in a vacuum with little correlation.

That said this is a fantasy exercise and Hokie Mark is correct. You can construct such a conference, but it would have no cohesion and likely due to distances and costs smaller than average travel crowds which would feed a lack of synergy leading to a sum lesser than its parts.

(01-29-2020 04:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 01:29 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The WSJ number cited are useless, as they reflect the value of ticket revenues, donations, etc. I read the original post as trying to generate an equivalent TV payout from a group of schools currently in the B12 and ACC.

This requires including schools that bring TV markets in which they are a dominant player and/or schools that are well recognized national brands. The B1G and SEC accomplish mission one by primarily featuring state flagship schools. They're not just a dominant player in one TV market, they're dominant in every TV market in a state. The larger the state the better. Essentially, you need schools that will 1) support a national television contract equivalent to the B1G and SEC and 2) support a conference network that is able to demand high subscription prices in as many households as possible. Finally, I'm assuming, as others seem to be, that Notre Dame is not an available choice.

Here's my conference, with discussion:

- Texas - the first and most obvious choice as the flagship school of the second largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football.
- UNC - Flagship school of the second largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G. Established national brand in basketball.
- UVA - Flagship school of the third largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G.
- Florida St. - Number 2 public research university in the third largest state in the US. Established national brand in football.
- VT - Land Grant school of the third largest state in the group not sharing its territory with the SEC or B1G. Ensures total domination in Virginia.
- Clemson - Land Grant school of the 23rd largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football.
- Syracuse - Private school, but provides an entry in the largest state without an entry in the SEC or B1G, and the fourth largest state overall. It is dominant in the Upstate New York, a region with a population of 10 million, in a manner similar to a state flagship school. Provides access to the NYC TV market to a lesser extent. Established national brand in basketball.
- Oklahoma - Flagship school in the 28th largest state, a state without an SEC or B1G member. Established national brand in football. Brings national interest football rivalry with Texas to the table.
- Kansas - Flagship school in the 35th largest state, a state without an SEC or B1G member. Established national brand in basketball.
- Texas Tech/Baylor/TCU - Any one of these provides a second entry in the second largest state in the U.S.
- Duke - Private school, but provides a second entry in a large state that doesn't share territory with the SEC or B1G. The dominant national brand school in basketball. Brings national interest basketball rivalry with UNC to the table.
- Miami - Private school, but provides a second entry in the third largest state in the U.S. Established national brand in football, although that brand has faded somewhat in recent years. It is dominant in South Florida, a region with a population of 7 million that is also one of the 3 or 4 best football recruiting areas in the U.S.

I guess I'd throw in Georgia Tech and Louisville to round out 14.

Obviously, my group is much more heavily weighted to the ACC. Texas and Oklahoma bring a huge percentage of the TV value to the B12. Indeed, my alternative answer to the OP might be just to add those two schools to the ACC as is.

The schools who sell the most tickets and get the largest donations are the same schools that have large audience draw. They are also the ones which are most profitable to add to a conference because they travel well and fill up road venues thereby creating a synergy of earnings since the demand means they also command the highest ticket prices. It's the small venues and average athletic donations that help to keep the ACC so underwhelmingly paid, especially when you add in low viewer participation within the footprint.

The pecking order exists for a reason, as do the payouts in media revenue. These are not things that occur in a vacuum with little correlation.

That said this is a fantasy exercise and Hokie Mark is correct. You can construct such a conference, but it would have no cohesion and likely due to distances and costs smaller than average travel crowds which would feed a lack of synergy leading to a sum lesser than its parts.

You can sense energy even on TV. The rivalries in the SEC are part of what make it valuable. Same to a lesser extent for the Big 10.

(01-28-2020 01:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 12:57 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:01 PM)Statefan Wrote:  The WSJ's methodology lowers the book value for schools located in the same Metro Area.

This affects Duke/UNC/NCSU as well as GT/UGA, UCLA/USC, and Stanford/Cal

If you were worth more you would be earning more. You're last for a reason. You don't get the eyeballs that other conferences get in spite of having the largest footprint. Hopefully the ACCN revenue puts you ahead of the PAC.

I guess I really can't communicate anymore. I was not talking about the ACC. Ryan Brewer, upon who this WSJ info is based states the following that his "study calculates what a college team would be worth on the open market if it could be bought and sold like a professional sports franchise. Brewer analyzes each program’s revenues and expenses along with cash-flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections".

What I was attempting to convey is that two of more college programs in the same market cannibalize that market, reducing their individual value as a franchise. It would be like comparing the value of the Yankees to the Mets if the Dodgers were also in NYC. The beauty of the value of a UT or Ohio State is that they have zero competition in their home metro and are the only game in town. Scarcity drives the demand for tickets and other sales.

It is not by happenstance that to maximize value no NFL or MLB franchise in the same metro is in the same division or league. Case in point the Rams and the Chargers, Dodgers and Angels, Jets and the Giants, Mets and the Yankees, Cubs and the White Sox.

There are 13 million people in the LA metro and the split for UCLA and USC is 6.5 million each. In San Francisco Stanford and Cal split a metro of 4.7 million. In Atlanta UGa and GT split 6 million people. In the Research Triangle of NC, Duke, UNC, and NC State split only 2.7 people. In market competition reduces profits and reduces value.

I got that before you stated it. There are many more factors to be considered than this one. But, it has a reality of its own. I was merely pointing out that aside from the fact that you have 4 schools in 1 P conference in the State of North Carolina which is really your market you are still drawing some kind of mix around 2.5 million per school give or take.

But even in the midst of that reality you have to be able to consistently mobilize your 2.5 million if you want to earn more. Consolidation is pairing brands and breaking up happy families because it is the only way for one or two of those 4 to distinguish itself not only above the others it competes with in state, but in order to establish a broader following beyond your region by regularly playing other schools who draw the eyes of the nation.

Texas elevated Baylor, T.C.U. and to a certain extent Tech and suddenly couldn't dominate its own state because each of those had the same branding and developed their own niche within the state. Toss in A&M and syphon off some more for Arkansas and the two Oklahoma's and pretty soon there wasn't enough to go around. Now thankfully UT built its national market years ago. But their downturn has more to do with too many ladles in the well than it does with Texas. I think they'll correct that by thinning those associations at least a bit in the future.

The ACC's northern quarter is in pro sports digs, it's bottom quarter is comprised largely of 2nd schools in their respective states, and the rest are privates. Then between Virginia and North Carolina you account for almost half of your total membership. Toss in the many extras that people have on the coast with which to fill their time and you get what you get.

Schools with branding are going to have to separate themselves out and establish a community of other brands to maximize their futures not only for sports, but for enrollment and exposure. Within a decade competition for students will be fierce.

I get the Oklahoma schools, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M (the Texas equivalent of Auburn), but I don't get TCU and Baylor. How come these private schools never bothered to expand their fanbase beyond the state of Texas?? Even Duke and Miami have portions of their fanbases that are not located in their state. So what's the deal with Baylor and TCU???

To my original point, I think there’s absolutely the pieces there to manufacture a conference that can pull a media contract more in line with the SEC and Big Ten rather than where the PAC 12, ACC, and Big 12 currently fall.

Aside from Kansas, football has got to be driving the bus and for that reason I think you have to stay away from programs like Duke, UNC, and UVA because at their heart they are basketball schools. Their football programs are liabilities because they don’t pull support from across the state in the same way that say an LSU or Wisconsin can.

Grab the 4 or 5 biggest football programs the ACC has and lump them with the Texlahoma 4 and Kansas. Divisional play will be fierce and exciting. The cross-division games like Florida St-Oklahoma and Texas-Clemson should have all the fan fare of a major OOC game.

Get 5 football games a year with ND and the quality goes up even more.

East:
N-
1) Syracuse
2) Virginia
3) Virginia Tech
4) West Virginia
S-
1) North Carolina
2) Clemson
3) Florida St.
4) Miami

West-
N-
1) Notre Dame
2) Louisville
3) Kansas
4) Georgia Tech
S-
1) Texas
2) TCU
3) Oklahoma
4) Oklahoma St.

(01-29-2020 08:08 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 01:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 12:57 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:01 PM)Statefan Wrote:  The WSJ's methodology lowers the book value for schools located in the same Metro Area.

This affects Duke/UNC/NCSU as well as GT/UGA, UCLA/USC, and Stanford/Cal

If you were worth more you would be earning more. You're last for a reason. You don't get the eyeballs that other conferences get in spite of having the largest footprint. Hopefully the ACCN revenue puts you ahead of the PAC.

I guess I really can't communicate anymore. I was not talking about the ACC. Ryan Brewer, upon who this WSJ info is based states the following that his "study calculates what a college team would be worth on the open market if it could be bought and sold like a professional sports franchise. Brewer analyzes each program’s revenues and expenses along with cash-flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections".

What I was attempting to convey is that two of more college programs in the same market cannibalize that market, reducing their individual value as a franchise. It would be like comparing the value of the Yankees to the Mets if the Dodgers were also in NYC. The beauty of the value of a UT or Ohio State is that they have zero competition in their home metro and are the only game in town. Scarcity drives the demand for tickets and other sales.

It is not by happenstance that to maximize value no NFL or MLB franchise in the same metro is in the same division or league. Case in point the Rams and the Chargers, Dodgers and Angels, Jets and the Giants, Mets and the Yankees, Cubs and the White Sox.

There are 13 million people in the LA metro and the split for UCLA and USC is 6.5 million each. In San Francisco Stanford and Cal split a metro of 4.7 million. In Atlanta UGa and GT split 6 million people. In the Research Triangle of NC, Duke, UNC, and NC State split only 2.7 people. In market competition reduces profits and reduces value.

I got that before you stated it. There are many more factors to be considered than this one. But, it has a reality of its own. I was merely pointing out that aside from the fact that you have 4 schools in 1 P conference in the State of North Carolina which is really your market you are still drawing some kind of mix around 2.5 million per school give or take.

But even in the midst of that reality you have to be able to consistently mobilize your 2.5 million if you want to earn more. Consolidation is pairing brands and breaking up happy families because it is the only way for one or two of those 4 to distinguish itself not only above the others it competes with in state, but in order to establish a broader following beyond your region by regularly playing other schools who draw the eyes of the nation.

Texas elevated Baylor, T.C.U. and to a certain extent Tech and suddenly couldn't dominate its own state because each of those had the same branding and developed their own niche within the state. Toss in A&M and syphon off some more for Arkansas and the two Oklahoma's and pretty soon there wasn't enough to go around. Now thankfully UT built its national market years ago. But their downturn has more to do with too many ladles in the well than it does with Texas. I think they'll correct that by thinning those associations at least a bit in the future.

The ACC's northern quarter is in pro sports digs, it's bottom quarter is comprised largely of 2nd schools in their respective states, and the rest are privates. Then between Virginia and North Carolina you account for almost half of your total membership. Toss in the many extras that people have on the coast with which to fill their time and you get what you get.

Schools with branding are going to have to separate themselves out and establish a community of other brands to maximize their futures not only for sports, but for enrollment and exposure. Within a decade competition for students will be fierce.

I get the Oklahoma schools, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M (the Texas equivalent of Auburn), but I don't get TCU and Baylor. How come these private schools never bothered to expand their fanbase beyond the state of Texas?? Even Duke and Miami have portions of their fanbases that are not located in their state. So what's the deal with Baylor and TCU???

Probably because the state of Texas is 28 million strong. Baylor is the oldest university in the state of Texas and carries a historical importance. TCU is just in the largest city. And both were long term SWC schools.

(01-29-2020 08:08 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 01:59 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-28-2020 12:57 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 11:01 PM)Statefan Wrote:  The WSJ's methodology lowers the book value for schools located in the same Metro Area.

This affects Duke/UNC/NCSU as well as GT/UGA, UCLA/USC, and Stanford/Cal

If you were worth more you would be earning more. You're last for a reason. You don't get the eyeballs that other conferences get in spite of having the largest footprint. Hopefully the ACCN revenue puts you ahead of the PAC.

I guess I really can't communicate anymore. I was not talking about the ACC. Ryan Brewer, upon who this WSJ info is based states the following that his "study calculates what a college team would be worth on the open market if it could be bought and sold like a professional sports franchise. Brewer analyzes each program’s revenues and expenses along with cash-flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections".

What I was attempting to convey is that two of more college programs in the same market cannibalize that market, reducing their individual value as a franchise. It would be like comparing the value of the Yankees to the Mets if the Dodgers were also in NYC. The beauty of the value of a UT or Ohio State is that they have zero competition in their home metro and are the only game in town. Scarcity drives the demand for tickets and other sales.

It is not by happenstance that to maximize value no NFL or MLB franchise in the same metro is in the same division or league. Case in point the Rams and the Chargers, Dodgers and Angels, Jets and the Giants, Mets and the Yankees, Cubs and the White Sox.

There are 13 million people in the LA metro and the split for UCLA and USC is 6.5 million each. In San Francisco Stanford and Cal split a metro of 4.7 million. In Atlanta UGa and GT split 6 million people. In the Research Triangle of NC, Duke, UNC, and NC State split only 2.7 people. In market competition reduces profits and reduces value.

I got that before you stated it. There are many more factors to be considered than this one. But, it has a reality of its own. I was merely pointing out that aside from the fact that you have 4 schools in 1 P conference in the State of North Carolina which is really your market you are still drawing some kind of mix around 2.5 million per school give or take.

But even in the midst of that reality you have to be able to consistently mobilize your 2.5 million if you want to earn more. Consolidation is pairing brands and breaking up happy families because it is the only way for one or two of those 4 to distinguish itself not only above the others it competes with in state, but in order to establish a broader following beyond your region by regularly playing other schools who draw the eyes of the nation.

Texas elevated Baylor, T.C.U. and to a certain extent Tech and suddenly couldn't dominate its own state because each of those had the same branding and developed their own niche within the state. Toss in A&M and syphon off some more for Arkansas and the two Oklahoma's and pretty soon there wasn't enough to go around. Now thankfully UT built its national market years ago. But their downturn has more to do with too many ladles in the well than it does with Texas. I think they'll correct that by thinning those associations at least a bit in the future.

The ACC's northern quarter is in pro sports digs, it's bottom quarter is comprised largely of 2nd schools in their respective states, and the rest are privates. Then between Virginia and North Carolina you account for almost half of your total membership. Toss in the many extras that people have on the coast with which to fill their time and you get what you get.

Schools with branding are going to have to separate themselves out and establish a community of other brands to maximize their futures not only for sports, but for enrollment and exposure. Within a decade competition for students will be fierce.

I get the Oklahoma schools, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M (the Texas equivalent of Auburn), but I don't get TCU and Baylor. How come these private schools never bothered to expand their fanbase beyond the state of Texas?? Even Duke and Miami have portions of their fanbases that are not located in their state. So what's the deal with Baylor and TCU???

Miami has multiple national football championships. Duke has multiple NCAA men's basketball titles. Both draw from far more than locally.

TCU and Baylor heavily draw from Texas. TCU's last football title was in the 30s. Baylor only has a couple of women's basketball titles. And Texas is a really big state. In area about as big as Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee put together with about 8% more people.