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'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #1601
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Found this article interesting. Apparently Sweden is doing the opposite of most other nations and not having terrible results.

Sweden bucks global trend with experimental virus strategy

snippit:
Quote: Sweden has become an international outlier in its response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak by keeping schools open and adopting few other restrictions, as the Scandinavian nation embarks on what one health expert called a “huge experiment”.
03-26-2020 02:18 PM
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Redwingtom Online
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Post: #1602
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 10:16 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  That Imperial College report the media cited so much? The expected number of deaths was vastly overestimated. I'm shocked (not). That's what happens when you make Chicken Little projections based on limited data.


You do realize that this is likely due mainly to the world's reaction with social distancing, etc. right?

03-26-2020 02:34 PM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #1603
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
"Let me be clear" translates to

"I'm an ahole"

Dont care. Stopped there.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 02:38 PM by shere khan.)
03-26-2020 02:37 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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Post: #1604
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 02:34 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 10:16 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  That Imperial College report the media cited so much? The expected number of deaths was vastly overestimated. I'm shocked (not). That's what happens when you make Chicken Little projections based on limited data.


You do realize that this is likely due mainly to the world's reaction with social distancing, etc. right?


The "model itself" WAS wrong. What kind of idiot would make up numbers and provide a model "if nothing is done to stop it". Anyone can say. The world will end in 5 days "if a meteor runs into before then". Stupid. His model would assume no one would do anything when people started dying around them. Whichever school gave this clown a degree should take it away immediately.
03-26-2020 02:51 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #1605
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 02:18 PM)VA49er Wrote:  Found this article interesting. Apparently Sweden is doing the opposite of most other nations and not having terrible results.

Sweden bucks global trend with experimental virus strategy

snippit:
Quote: Sweden has become an international outlier in its response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak by keeping schools open and adopting few other restrictions, as the Scandinavian nation embarks on what one health expert called a “huge experiment”.

I thought I saw that Holland was also choosing not to overreact to this.
03-26-2020 06:22 PM
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Post: #1606
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 02:37 PM)shere khan Wrote:  "Let me be clear" translates to

"I'm an ahole"

Dont care. Stopped there.

It also translates to "I never read anything I post about."

The Imperial College scientist is basically saying his whole study was based on a flawed assumption, that nobody had been infected prior to that time.
03-26-2020 06:59 PM
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Post: #1607
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 06:22 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 02:18 PM)VA49er Wrote:  Found this article interesting. Apparently Sweden is doing the opposite of most other nations and not having terrible results.

Sweden bucks global trend with experimental virus strategy

snippit:
Quote: Sweden has become an international outlier in its response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak by keeping schools open and adopting few other restrictions, as the Scandinavian nation embarks on what one health expert called a “huge experiment”.

I thought I saw that Holland was also choosing not to overreact to this.

The Netherlands 434 deaths 25.2 per million #6 in world
Sweden 77 deaths 7.6 per million #10 in world

Denmark is 7.1 which is not much different, however.
03-26-2020 07:07 PM
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #1608
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
The NYC health commissioner has to go, right?
03-27-2020 12:50 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #1609
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 02:37 PM)shere khan Wrote:  "Let me be clear" translates to

"I'm an ahole"

Dont care. Stopped there.

It also translates to "I never read anything I post about."

The Imperial College scientist is basically saying his whole study was based on a flawed assumption, that nobody had been infected prior to that time.

Correct. His correction had nothing to do with "controls" that were put in place, but the fact his starting data was incorrect. So the fake news media is wrong again.


Dr. Birx also hit them over the head for pushing studies that showed alarming death rates due to no controls. EVERYBODY puts in some form of controls, whether rudimentary or more advanced. We put in place travel bans early on, social distancing, etc. Hi model, even with the flaws corrected, dont represent what would happen in the US.

Hell, if we stopped prescribing antiboitics, deaths by bacterial infections would skyrocket as well. A "no-controls" study is about as useful as a raging case of herpes. Dont need it. Dont want it. Even more dangerous is a no-controls study where the "scientist" admits his flawed data has an outcome overstated by a factor of 25.
03-27-2020 01:54 PM
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Post: #1610
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-27-2020 01:54 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 02:37 PM)shere khan Wrote:  "Let me be clear" translates to

"I'm an ahole"

Dont care. Stopped there.

It also translates to "I never read anything I post about."

The Imperial College scientist is basically saying his whole study was based on a flawed assumption, that nobody had been infected prior to that time.

Correct. His correction had nothing to do with "controls" that were put in place, but the fact his starting data was incorrect. So the fake news media is wrong again.


Dr. Birx also hit them over the head for pushing studies that showed alarming death rates due to no controls. EVERYBODY puts in some form of controls, whether rudimentary or more advanced. We put in place travel bans early on, social distancing, etc. Hi model, even with the flaws corrected, dont represent what would happen in the US.

Hell, if we stopped prescribing antiboitics, deaths by bacterial infections would skyrocket as well. A "no-controls" study is about as useful as a raging case of herpes. Dont need it. Dont want it. Even more dangerous is a no-controls study where the "scientist" admits his flawed data has an outcome overstated by a factor of 25.

It cost, to quote Carl Sagan, Billions upon Billions.
03-27-2020 02:06 PM
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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Post: #1611
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
03-31-2020 12:11 PM
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Old Blue Offline
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Post: #1612
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w...or-dkzbFSJ

Anything to this? Or is this just BS?

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03-31-2020 01:18 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #1613
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-31-2020 01:18 PM)Old Blue Wrote:  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w...or-dkzbFSJ

Anything to this? Or is this just BS?

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You can have all of the preparedness programs in the world, but until you actually try to put one into action it is no more instructive than shadow boxing where you can theoretically throw the right punches until somebody knocks you on your keister and you have to actually figure out how to fight.

It's why every new generation has get blooded before it can defend itself.
03-31-2020 01:38 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #1614
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-31-2020 01:18 PM)Old Blue Wrote:  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w...or-dkzbFSJ
Anything to this? Or is this just BS?
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From the wiki:

"The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Stafford Act)[1] is a 1988 United States federal law designed to bring an orderly and systematic means of federal natural disaster assistance for state and local governments in carrying out their responsibilities to aid citizens. Congress' intention was to encourage states and localities to develop comprehensive disaster preparedness plans, prepare for better intergovernmental coordination in the face of a disaster, encourage the use of insurance coverage, and provide federal assistance programs for losses due to a disaster."

Note that there is nothing there about the federal government actually DOING anything. It makes it very clear that state and local governments are the DOERS and the federales support and assist them.
03-31-2020 01:45 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #1615
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-31-2020 01:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 01:18 PM)Old Blue Wrote:  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w...or-dkzbFSJ
Anything to this? Or is this just BS?
Sent from my LG-H932 using CSNbbs mobile app
You can have all of the preparedness programs in the world, but until you actually try to put one into action it is no more instructive than shadow boxing where you can theoretically throw the right punches until somebody knocks you on your keister and you have to actually figure out how to fight.
It's why every new generation has get blooded before it can defend itself.

Absolutely.

I say again, for the umpteenth time, we have nobody assigned to the job of actually DOING the response, unless you are in a state that has gone to great lengths to establish and clarify procedures (and off the top of my head, while some states are better than others, I'm not aware of any state that has truly done what is needed).

That's why I have been recommending repurposing the National Guard from a reserve Army reserve to primarily a civil defense and disaster response agency. If you have somebody who knows they are going to have to start DOING the day the balloon goes up, and they are staffed, equipped, and trained to do it, you can be up and running about a month faster.
03-31-2020 01:50 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #1616
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-31-2020 01:18 PM)Old Blue Wrote:  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w...or-dkzbFSJ

Anything to this? Or is this just BS?

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It's real value is that it is a means to use DoD manpower and resources domestically without violating the Constitution. The military is really the only institution that actively prepares for disaster response at the federal level.
03-31-2020 01:51 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #1617
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-31-2020 01:51 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(03-31-2020 01:18 PM)Old Blue Wrote:  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w...or-dkzbFSJ
Anything to this? Or is this just BS?
Sent from my LG-H932 using CSNbbs mobile app
It's real value is that it is a means to use DoD manpower and resources domestically without violating the Constitution. The military is really the only institution that actively prepares for disaster response at the federal level.

Yep.
03-31-2020 02:15 PM
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MileHighBronco Offline
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Post: #1618
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-26-2020 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  It also translates to "I never read anything I post about."

The Imperial College scientist is basically saying his whole study was based on a flawed assumption, that nobody had been infected prior to that time.

Yet our COVID-19 response (in the U.S.) took his mitigation recommendations lock, stock and barrel and implemented them. So did many other countries.
03-31-2020 02:20 PM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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Post: #1619
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-31-2020 02:20 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  Yet our COVID-19 response (in the U.S.) took his mitigation recommendations lock, stock and barrel and implemented them. So did many other countries.

Sweden is a definite outlier - no non-essential gatherings of more than 50 people, but the restaurants and schools remain open.

There are still thousands of cases in Sweden, but it's not out of control either. On a cases per capita basis, they are around even with the UK and Denmark.

Sweden's "doubling rate" is considerably lower than the UK, so the UK will blow by Sweden in cases per capita this week.
(This post was last modified: 03-31-2020 03:39 PM by Nittany_Bearcat.)
03-31-2020 03:36 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #1620
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
It's utterly useless to look at our case totals anymore. I've been unofficially tallying daily case totals and death totals from the past few days (using the worldometers numbers).

3/29 123K total U.S. cases, 2211 deaths
3/30 143K/2490
3/31 164/3173
4/1 (at 5 am) 188/4056

The death numbers are going up dramatically the last few days but the case totals are relatively flat. We had roughly 900 deaths in the U.S. yesterday but only 24,000 new cases. Obviously, you can't connect those two numbers directly, but that mortality rate is ridiculous.

Michigan may pass California in total cases. There are some areas who seem almost pleased to report every new case and death (NYC, New Orleans, Detroit, etc.), but other areas (California, Texas and a few other states like Oregon, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and perhaps Florida) whose numbers seem like complete B.S.

I've already documented in past posts why the Texas and California case totals are useless at this point. I'm not sure what is happening in those other states.
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2020 05:16 AM by Fort Bend Owl.)
04-01-2020 05:15 AM
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