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'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
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Post: #1581
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 10:46 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-24-2020 06:30 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....

Let me say this differently....

The 'official' mortality rate or infection rate of this disease is mostly an academic exercise. Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it is fairly difficult to transmit. Garden Variety flu has an incredibly high transmission rate, MOSTLY because at least in this country, we don't do that much to prevent it. People don't usually wear masks or wash hands or use sanitizer until they or someone very close to them actually get it.

So all of these 'rates' depend on lots of variables that are not common to everyone.

What matters now is protecting people from DEATH... and not whether the rate is x or y or z%

If 20,000 people all came in to Houston hospitals tomorrow, they would be overwhelmed.... for a day. If 2,000 come in per day for the next 10 days, they'll be stretched thin. If 200 come in per day for the next 100 days, no problem. Same infection rate... same mortality rate.

If 60% get it, the number of deaths will be a lot higher than if 5% get it. A lot of politicans are throwing around 60-70% and that just doesn't seem to jive with any numbers out there. Only 20% got it on the cruise liner and they didn't know about it and were in a confined space.
03-24-2020 12:00 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #1582
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
AICPA has posted a nine-point plan recommendation. It includes 3 points for all businesses, 3 points specifically for small businesses, and 3 points for employees. The attached file has a summary. I like it.

https://blog.aicpa.org/2020/03/9-actions...T4p5C.dpbs


Attached File(s)
.png  Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 5.57.04 PM.png (Size: 54.73 KB / Downloads: 5)
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2020 05:59 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
03-24-2020 05:55 PM
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Post: #1583
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 11:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 08:12 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

COVID-19's reproduction number (the "R0" you hear people talking about) is real high. Definitely higher than the annual influenza bugs (~ 1.5), and I think it's definitely higher than original estimates (probably closer to 4 than 2.5).

One study as regards the spread in Switzerland had the R0 at 4.26 (before any social distancing).

This things spreads a lot, and that in itself can overwhelm a hospital system with minimal marginal operating room.

Italy has an infection rate so far of 0.1%. South Korea, where its fading, had 0.02%.
The US had 60 million get the flue last year, a rate of about 18%. To equal that, Italy would have to have new cases and be missing positives not tested by a factor of 180!
China is much lower than either, but I don't really trust their numbers.

The numbers just aren't adding up.

I heard from a Chinese attorney yesterday that China has and is reporting only those that test positive AND have symptoms.
03-24-2020 06:05 PM
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Post: #1584
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 12:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-24-2020 10:46 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-24-2020 06:30 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....

Let me say this differently....

The 'official' mortality rate or infection rate of this disease is mostly an academic exercise. Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it is fairly difficult to transmit. Garden Variety flu has an incredibly high transmission rate, MOSTLY because at least in this country, we don't do that much to prevent it. People don't usually wear masks or wash hands or use sanitizer until they or someone very close to them actually get it.

So all of these 'rates' depend on lots of variables that are not common to everyone.

What matters now is protecting people from DEATH... and not whether the rate is x or y or z%

If 20,000 people all came in to Houston hospitals tomorrow, they would be overwhelmed.... for a day. If 2,000 come in per day for the next 10 days, they'll be stretched thin. If 200 come in per day for the next 100 days, no problem. Same infection rate... same mortality rate.

If 60% get it, the number of deaths will be a lot higher than if 5% get it. A lot of politicans are throwing around 60-70% and that just doesn't seem to jive with any numbers out there. Only 20% got it on the cruise liner and they didn't know about it and were in a confined space.

I look at it this way....

if 20% of the pop. is in the 'kill zone', keep that 20% out of harms' way as best method...

if the we lose a handful from the remaining 80% that will become immune after contraction, or the old fks that choose to play 'the wild side of danger danger', so fk'n be it...

I'm beyond fk'n done with this bs......so is our Prez.....he's easily seen enough stupid shite at this point....

I'm simply going to continue to point out the obvious...
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2020 06:41 PM by stinkfist.)
03-24-2020 06:38 PM
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Post: #1585
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Latest celebrities with it include Prince Charles and Jackson Browne - both are mild cases.
03-25-2020 06:26 AM
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Post: #1586
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 06:26 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Latest celebrities with it include Prince Charles and Jackson Browne - both are mild cases.

@muhCelebritiesMatter

jfc....
03-25-2020 06:35 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #1587
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Time to open America back up. This is looking dumber and dumber by the hour.
03-25-2020 09:22 AM
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Post: #1588
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Spain #2, passing China in deaths. The Netherlands is rapidly gaining on Iran in deaths per million. They have moved into #5 in deaths per million. San Marino 621, Italy 113, Spain 74, Iran 25, Netherlands 21. Italy's reporting in this chart seems to be a half day or so behind. The other day they showed 0 deaths for the day, but it was 700 or so by the afternoon, so that 0 this morning doesn't mean anything.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
03-25-2020 09:29 AM
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Post: #1589
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 09:22 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  Time to open America back up. This is looking dumber and dumber by the hour.

This. Treat New York like one of the other European countries and ban traffic from there going anywhere else in the country and move resources there to fix it, because the State and City can't obviously.
03-25-2020 09:29 AM
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Post: #1590
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
ONLY Open things back up with a number of precautions.

Many Americans (including some on here) still don't take the easy transmission of these sorts of diseases seriously enough. You don't need to shut businesses, but you do need to understand that sneezing into your hand and then touching something with that hand puts someone else at risk. You want to reduce healthcare costs in this country? Be responsible for your bodily fluids... and yes, I mean that in every way possible,
03-25-2020 10:43 AM
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Post: #1591
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 10:43 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  ONLY Open things back up with a number of precautions.

Many Americans (including some on here) still don't take the easy transmission of these sorts of diseases seriously enough. You don't need to shut businesses, but you do need to understand that sneezing into your hand and then touching something with that hand puts someone else at risk. You want to reduce healthcare costs in this country? Be responsible for your bodily fluids... and yes, I mean that in every way possible,
What people are doing now, washing hands, sneezing and coughing in a fabric or tissue instead of your frickin elbow for God's Sake (who thought that was a good idea?) among other things should have been going on already. People are nasty and within months after things get "somewhat back to normal" people will go right back to their nasty ass selves again. Coughing in your elbow? Really? If you have to sneeze pull your shirt, I where a t-shirt everyday, and sneeze into your shirt.
03-25-2020 10:58 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #1592
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 10:58 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 10:43 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  ONLY Open things back up with a number of precautions.

Many Americans (including some on here) still don't take the easy transmission of these sorts of diseases seriously enough. You don't need to shut businesses, but you do need to understand that sneezing into your hand and then touching something with that hand puts someone else at risk. You want to reduce healthcare costs in this country? Be responsible for your bodily fluids... and yes, I mean that in every way possible,
What people are doing now, washing hands, sneezing and coughing in a fabric or tissue instead of your frickin elbow for God's Sake (who thought that was a good idea?) among other things should have been going on already. People are nasty and within months after things get "somewhat back to normal" people will go right back to their nasty ass selves again. Coughing in your elbow? Really? If you have to sneeze pull your shirt, I where a t-shirt everyday, and sneeze into your shirt.

Not only are we generally nasty, but we have 'serve yourself' food stations everywhere, we don't teach our children good habits... and we have people who do things like licking toilet seats, 'just because in a free country they can'.
03-25-2020 11:06 AM
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Post: #1593
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 11:06 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 10:58 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 10:43 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  ONLY Open things back up with a number of precautions.

Many Americans (including some on here) still don't take the easy transmission of these sorts of diseases seriously enough. You don't need to shut businesses, but you do need to understand that sneezing into your hand and then touching something with that hand puts someone else at risk. You want to reduce healthcare costs in this country? Be responsible for your bodily fluids... and yes, I mean that in every way possible,
What people are doing now, washing hands, sneezing and coughing in a fabric or tissue instead of your frickin elbow for God's Sake (who thought that was a good idea?) among other things should have been going on already. People are nasty and within months after things get "somewhat back to normal" people will go right back to their nasty ass selves again. Coughing in your elbow? Really? If you have to sneeze pull your shirt, I where a t-shirt everyday, and sneeze into your shirt.

Not only are we generally nasty, but we have 'serve yourself' food stations everywhere, we don't teach our children good habits... and we have people who do things like licking toilet seats, 'just because in a free country they can'.

exhibit A

[Image: tenor.gif]
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 11:25 AM by UofMstateU.)
03-25-2020 11:24 AM
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'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Just got the call that my brother in Kansas City tested positive. He is an interventional cardiologist. Entire family is ill.

Folks say an extra prayer if you believe in that sort of thing for frontline health care workers and first responders. They are literally putting their life and their families lives at severe risk.

My personal count....

Wife - advanced clinical ICU RN - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Borther in law - Memphis Fire EMT - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Brother - interventional cardiologist- positive for COVID-19




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03-25-2020 12:57 PM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 12:57 PM)maximus Wrote:  Just got the call that my brother in Kansas City tested positive. He is an interventional cardiologist. Entire family is ill.

Folks say an extra prayer if you believe in that sort of thing for frontline health care workers and first responders. They are literally putting their life and their families lives at severe risk.

My personal count....

Wife - advanced clinical ICU RN - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Borther in law - Memphis Fire EMT - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Brother - interventional cardiologist- positive for COVID-19




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Prayers for you all!
03-25-2020 01:02 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #1596
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 12:57 PM)maximus Wrote:  Just got the call that my brother in Kansas City tested positive. He is an interventional cardiologist. Entire family is ill.

Folks say an extra prayer if you believe in that sort of thing for frontline health care workers and first responders. They are literally putting their life and their families lives at severe risk.

My personal count....

Wife - advanced clinical ICU RN - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Borther in law - Memphis Fire EMT - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Brother - interventional cardiologist- positive for COVID-19

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Very sorry to hear this... Prayers for a speedy recovery for them all and that others don't get it
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 02:22 PM by Hambone10.)
03-25-2020 01:17 PM
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Post: #1597
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-25-2020 12:57 PM)maximus Wrote:  Just got the call that my brother in Kansas City tested positive. He is an interventional cardiologist. Entire family is ill.
Folks say an extra prayer if you believe in that sort of thing for frontline health care workers and first responders. They are literally putting their life and their families lives at severe risk.
My personal count....
Wife - advanced clinical ICU RN - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Borther in law - Memphis Fire EMT - unknowingly directly exposed by positive patient
Brother - interventional cardiologist- positive for COVID-19
Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

You are all in my thoughts and prayers.
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 01:22 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
03-25-2020 01:22 PM
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Post: #1598
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
A of people need to say the Serenity Prayer and worry about themselves and not what others are doing that they can't control. Screaming at the sky isn't going to stop people from living their lives.
03-25-2020 01:33 PM
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Post: #1599
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
That Imperial College report the media cited so much? The expected number of deaths was vastly overestimated. I'm shocked (not). That's what happens when you make Chicken Little projections based on limited data.


(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 10:17 AM by EigenEagle.)
03-26-2020 10:16 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown

03-26-2020 11:29 AM
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