pretty funny- Matt Norlander saying this-
It’s conceivable that Dayton could host:

1. Former coach Archie Miller

2. Xavier

3. Cincinnati.

In the same season the Flyers get a 1 seed.

(03-08-2020 11:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  pretty funny- Matt Norlander saying this-
It’s conceivable that Dayton could host:

1. Former coach Archie Miller

2. Xavier

3. Cincinnati.

In the same season the Flyers get a 1 seed.

that would be extremely unusual.

(03-08-2020 12:28 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-08-2020 11:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  pretty funny- Matt Norlander saying this-
It’s conceivable that Dayton could host:

1. Former coach Archie Miller

2. Xavier

3. Cincinnati.

In the same season the Flyers get a 1 seed.

that would be extremely unusual.

with where everyone is right now, it's also very possible, if not likely. Think Xavier if they make it will be headed to Dayton almost for sure. Indiana has a real shot as well. Cincy might be the least likely, because they have the best shot to win their conference tourney and avoid Dayton altogether.

Stever, am I wrong in my analysis here (currently in conversation on MU forum)?

I believe there is legitimate (and realistic/likely) possibility that has MU being knocked off the bubble entirely before next Sunday. According to Bracketville we are one of the last four byes currently. Yet another loss to Seton Hall (and sixth straight loss) will surely put us into the last four in. With just one or two bid thieves, we could get knocked off the bubble entirely. If teams below us (or near us) win a game in their conference tournament, that would give them a bump too. Florida will be favorited to win a game against Georgia/Ole Miss. UCLA will be favorited to win against Stanford/California. Xavier will be favorited to beat DePaul. Stanford is favorited against California. NC State will be favorited against Wake/Pitt. Texas Tech, the lone underdog, is not favorited against Texas. That is five teams near us on the bubble that are favorited in their conference tournament games (we will be significant underdog).

And, all of that is not considering that there could be bid thieves from other conferences.

I'm bracing myself to be ready for the strong possibility we get bumped from the bubble on Sunday, due to teams around us all winning, and us continuing our slide. If we beat SH, then it would solidify our spot. If we lose, it could be catastrophic. I just don't see how a team that can lose its last six straight games gets into the tournament. Never recall that happening before.

(03-09-2020 09:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Stever, am I wrong in my analysis here (currently in conversation on MU forum)?

I believe there is legitimate (and realistic/likely) possibility that has MU being knocked off the bubble entirely before next Sunday. According to Bracketville we are one of the last four byes currently. Yet another loss to Seton Hall (and sixth straight loss) will surely put us into the last four in. With just one or two bid thieves, we could get knocked off the bubble entirely. If teams below us (or near us) win a game in their conference tournament, that would give them a bump too. Florida will be favorited to win a game against Georgia/Ole Miss. UCLA will be favorited to win against Stanford/California. Xavier will be favorited to beat DePaul. Stanford is favorited against California. NC State will be favorited against Wake/Pitt. Texas Tech, the lone underdog, is not favorited against Texas. That is five teams near us on the bubble that are favorited in their conference tournament games (we will be significant underdog).

And, all of that is not considering that there could be bid thieves from other conferences.

I'm bracing myself to be ready for the strong possibility we get bumped from the bubble on Sunday, due to teams around us all winning, and us continuing our slide. If we beat SH, then it would solidify our spot. If we lose, it could be catastrophic. I just don't see how a team that can lose its last six straight games gets into the tournament. Never recall that happening before.

I think you guys are pretty safe...
Texas/Texas Tech play 1st rd of B12 tourney. 1 of those have to lose. That helps Marquette out a lot.
Cincy/Wichita could play SF of AAC tourney. 1 of those have to lose. I don't think for instance Wichita beating UConn(but losing to Cincy) would have Wichita passing Marquette.

Some of the favorites, while yes it's a win, it's not a big enough win for passing Marquette. Xavier a great example vs DePaul. Stanford with Cal. Even with that- a Stanford win with Cal- they play UCLA. The loser of that game won't pass Marquette IMO.

Villanova back in 2011 lost 10 of their final 15 games, and their last 5 games. Made it in to the tournament as a 9 seed.

think you guys would be in a lot worse position had results gone differently this weekend. Thinking the Florida Kentucky game, thinking Xavier Butler game, thinking UCLA USC game. Even the ones like Memphis/Houston and Tennessee/Auburn- that would have gotten those 2 teams much closer to the cut line, and put them much more in play for passing Marquette. A lot of things actually went well for Marquette this weekend.

I'd give Marquette like a 85-90% chance of making the tourney.

(03-09-2020 10:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think you guys would be in a lot worse position had results gone differently this weekend. Thinking the Florida Kentucky game, thinking Xavier Butler game, thinking UCLA USC game. Even the ones like Memphis/Houston and Tennessee/Auburn- that would have gotten those 2 teams much closer to the cut line, and put them much more in play for passing Marquette. A lot of things actually went well for Marquette this weekend.

I'd give Marquette like a 85-90% chance of making the tourney.

Bittersweet. Nice to still have strong odds of getting in; unfortunate to likely get a spot that should go to someone else.

Meanwhile, MU alum Brian Wardle winning another MVC down at Bradley. Has elevated two separate mid-major programs (UWGB and Bradley) to 20-win seasons (and, for Bradley, back-to-back tournament appearances).

If the seat wasn't already warm, it should be after this week. MU is 1-7 in March games the past two years. Major red flag.

(03-09-2020 10:19 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think you guys would be in a lot worse position had results gone differently this weekend. Thinking the Florida Kentucky game, thinking Xavier Butler game, thinking UCLA USC game. Even the ones like Memphis/Houston and Tennessee/Auburn- that would have gotten those 2 teams much closer to the cut line, and put them much more in play for passing Marquette. A lot of things actually went well for Marquette this weekend.

I'd give Marquette like a 85-90% chance of making the tourney.

Bittersweet. Nice to still have strong odds of getting in; unfortunate to likely get a spot that should go to someone else.

Meanwhile, MU alum Brian Wardle winning another MVC down at Bradley. Has elevated two separate mid-major programs (UWGB and Bradley) to 20-win seasons (and, for Bradley, back-to-back tournament appearances).

If the seat wasn't already warm, it should be after this week. MU is 1-7 in March games the past two years. Major red flag.

Makes him 11-16 in March as Marquette coach. With 3 of the 11 wins coming in Wednesday of BET week.

Now, I will say for Marquette, getting out from the Big East where you are so heavily scouted, and into the NCAA where facing teams in quick order that you've not played- might be 2 completely different animals. Having 2 days to prepare for MH isn't fun at all I'd guess.

(03-09-2020 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:19 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-09-2020 10:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think you guys would be in a lot worse position had results gone differently this weekend. Thinking the Florida Kentucky game, thinking Xavier Butler game, thinking UCLA USC game. Even the ones like Memphis/Houston and Tennessee/Auburn- that would have gotten those 2 teams much closer to the cut line, and put them much more in play for passing Marquette. A lot of things actually went well for Marquette this weekend.

I'd give Marquette like a 85-90% chance of making the tourney.

Bittersweet. Nice to still have strong odds of getting in; unfortunate to likely get a spot that should go to someone else.

Meanwhile, MU alum Brian Wardle winning another MVC down at Bradley. Has elevated two separate mid-major programs (UWGB and Bradley) to 20-win seasons (and, for Bradley, back-to-back tournament appearances).

If the seat wasn't already warm, it should be after this week. MU is 1-7 in March games the past two years. Major red flag.

Makes him 11-16 in March as Marquette coach. With 3 of the 11 wins coming in Wednesday of BET week.

Now, I will say for Marquette, getting out from the Big East where you are so heavily scouted, and into the NCAA where facing teams in quick order that you've not played- might be 2 completely different animals. Having 2 days to prepare for MH isn't fun at all I'd guess.

One can hope. Would be great for Markus to get one tournament win while at MU; would be a terrible shame for him to leave without one.