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10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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Post: #141
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 10:39 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 10:18 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 05:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 05:05 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Private schools come and go, though. Even a century ago, you had small private colleges starting to shutter because they outlived their initial scope and mission.

The bloat and bubble is on the public side. Consider the public systems in some states, and where you have such operating redundancies. Pennsylvania is a good example of this, where you have Penn State (which isn't a fully public institution) trying to keep its system campuses alive, competing with PASSHE institutions (and more than a few of these are really hurting), and you have community colleges offering something different as well. There's not enough room for them all.

And, those HBCU's...

It's not surprising that some of the fast-rising schools are public ones that are part of larger systems. Consider Stony Brook, or UC-Merced. Where else in the country is this kind of growth or institutional birth possible? But, how did Stony prosper, and did it come at the expense of the many private schools near there, or other SUNY campuses? Did Cal State take a hit for Merced?

The private schools DO go away. The public ones, when they start to flop...it gets political and extremely ugly. And everything suffers for it.

I look at Ohio, where you have a lot of public D1 schools...I'm amazed there are still so many at that level, let alone still open.

A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

Ohio has a ton of small private colleges.

Most of them are struggling. Sure, schools like Kenyon College and Case Western are doing fine, but a lot of them are seeing massive enrollment dips, their donor base is dying out and are bleeding money overall. Here's an article out of Cleveland from a couple years ago

https://www.crainscleveland.com/educatio...iversities


My son is in his second year at UC. When he was considering schools he applied to XU and Mount St. Joe's. Both schools bent over backwards in terms of discounts to entice him to their schools (both schools reduced their tuition to match UC's base price). My son was a slightly above average student. I can only imagine what they offered the kids who were knocking the cover off the ball.

I know someone who has been offered a partial scholarship at Tulane, but waitlisted at Georgia. Another who was offered at Cornell(!), but rejected by Georgia. Another who got a full scholarship offer at Mercer (and accepted at Georgia Tech as well) who got waitlisted at Georgia. Its kind of strange.
02-04-2020 11:00 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #142
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 08:54 AM)whittx Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 04:56 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 08:17 PM)whittx Wrote:  In Stony Brook's case, it was location. They are literally the only public flagship in downstate and Long Island outside of NYC. When you have that, you are at a huge advantage.

Farmingdale might take offense to that. The ironic thing is that Stony now has a presence in NYC. As if CUNY needed more coverage.

Where it relates to this thread, I think the four major SUNY campuses (Buffalo, Stony Brook, Albany, and Binghamton) have the potential of outgrowing their current conferences (and what of Stony's 2020 campaign?). It would generate growth at those specific campuses. But, what of the others in the system?

CliftonAve Wrote:A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

This is Cheyney and PA. Between them, Lincoln (the also ailing commonwealth HBCU), West Chester, PSU Philly campuses, and many small private colleges in the area all trying to grab the same kinds of students.

In Ohio, does the consolidation or merger talk come up often or at all? Does it seem like that will happen for some of its schools?

Farmingdale isn't a flagship. That being said, Binghamton is going to struggle moving up since they are a non-fb school in a dying area. Buffalo should be in the AAC at a minimum but decisions made when UB transitioned to a public university set the athletic program back 30 years. Albany and Stony Brook had similar issues due to the SUNY philosophy in the 60s and 70s. Keep in mind that at one point in the 60's and early 70's, Brockport was supposed to transition into the 5th University Center. The end of the baby boom and open enrollment, coupled with the state hitting a financial crisis killed that idea.

With Farmingdale, it's not about that "flagship"/center designation, but that same philosophical shift in the 60's/70's that saw the two locations mirroring operations with tech/sciences. Stony was supposed to be a teaching school?
02-04-2020 12:59 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #143
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 10:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 09:07 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not sure I agree with this - the major public schools are definitely all still growing. I'm too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but South Carolina has grown by about 10k students in just the last 10-12 years and is planning on expanding even more as soon as some new dorms can be built. It's a similar situation at most SEC schools (and I imagine most P5 public schools)
Texas and the Big 10 schools are all about the same size they were 25 years ago. Texas A&M stayed the same size for 15 years or so until a policy change caused them to grow 10k in a short period of time. I don't see Florida, Georgia or Alabama trying to grow much beyond 40k.

I'm not so sure the SEC schools are done growing. Here's a look over the last ten years (since 2009-10):

UF is static (50k)
Vandy is more or less static (undergrad enrollment around 6k, grad numbers unclear but the grand total was 13k in 2019)
Missouri is static (Lots of issue there due to 2015, but Freshman enrollment was at an all time high in 2019)
Tennessee is up 2000 (27k to 29k)
Kentucky is up 3000 (27.5k to 30.5k
UGA is up 5000 students (34k to 39K)
South Carolina is up 7000 (28k to 35k)

Mississippi St up 3000 (19k to 22k)
LSU is up 4,500 (26k to 31.7k)
Ole Miss is up 6000 (17k to 23k)
Auburn is up nearly 6000 (24.6K to 30.5k)
Alabama is up 8000 students (30k to 38k)
Arkansas is up over 10,000 (17k to 27.5k)
Texas A&M is up over 20,000 (48k to 68k)

UF and Vanderbilt seem to have made conscious choices to hold steady, but I see no slowing down from anyone else. I'd expect to see most begin to approach 35 or 40k in the next decade. South Carolina I know plans on going beyond that to around 50k in the next 25 years if they can build the dorms and academic buildings.

These growth numbers will take decades to begin paying dividends, but there is a tremendous curve coming as these graduates who are all in their 20s and early 30s will begin to enter their 40s and 50s over the next two decades.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2020 02:45 PM by Gamecock.)
02-04-2020 04:43 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #144
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 04:43 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 10:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 09:07 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not sure I agree with this - the major public schools are definitely all still growing. I'm too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but South Carolina has grown by about 10k students in just the last 10-12 years and is planning on expanding even more as soon as some new dorms can be built. It's a similar situation at most SEC schools (and I imagine most P5 public schools)
Texas and the Big 10 schools are all about the same size they were 25 years ago. Texas A&M stayed the same size for 15 years or so until a policy change caused them to grow 10k in a short period of time. I don't see Florida, Georgia or Alabama trying to grow much beyond 40k.

I'm not so sure the SEC schools are doing growing. Here's a look over the last ten years (since 2009-10):

UF is static (50k)
Vandy is more or less static (undergrad enrollment around 6k, grad numbers unclear but the grand total was 13k in 2019)
Missouri is static (Lots of issue there due to 2015, but Freshman enrollment was at an all time high in 2019)
Tennessee is up 2000 (27k to 29k)
Kentucky is up 3000 (27.5k to 30.5k
UGA is up 5000 students (34k to 39K)
South Carolina is up 7000 (28k to 35k)

Mississippi St up 3000 (19k to 22k)
LSU is up 4,500 (26k to 31.7k)
Ole Miss is up 6000 (17k to 23k)
Auburn is up nearly 6000 (24.6K to 30.5k)
Alabama is up 8000 students (30k to 38k)
Arkansas is up over 10,000 (17k to 27.5k)
Texas A&M is up over 20,000 (48k to 68k)

UF and Vanderbilt seem to have made conscious choices to hold steady, but I see no slowing down from anyone else. I'd expect to see most begin to approach 35 or 40k in the next decade. South Carolina I know plans on going beyond that to around 50k in the next 25 years if they can build the dorms and academic buildings.

These growth numbers will take decades to begin paying dividends, but there is a tremendous curve coming as these graduates who are all in their 20s and early 30s will begin to enter their 40s and 50s over the next two decades.

You can expect to see the flagship and land grant state programs grow significantly in the coming years as they will start to cannibalize students from smaller regional and/or directional schools. By creating Honors Colleges, State U's can lower the admissions criteria while still maintaining the patina of high standards.
02-04-2020 05:37 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #145
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.
02-04-2020 06:10 PM
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Post: #146
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Most of them are trying to be more selective. They don't want to be Southwest Middle State U.
02-04-2020 06:33 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #147
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Yep, just like fish, the big ones eat the little ones, and there'll be only one school left in each state.

For example, I can see a time in the near future when all but one of Ohio's fourteen state universities, and all of their branch campuses and community colleges, are gobbled up. The sole survivor, Ohio State, will then have an enrollment of more than 500,000 students because it's the state flagship. They'll have to build twelve-lane highways from all directions for access and devote thousands of acres to parking so the kids can get to class on time. Classrooms will look like basketball arenas, with the one for Psych 101 seating 15,000 students.

It'll be the same in North Carolina. No more NC State, because it's not the state flagship. And no more ECU, because it's not the state flagship. They'll raze those campuses and turn them into corporate pig and chicken farms. Meanwhile, UNC will have an enrollment of 425,000, many of whom will receive credit for classes they aren't obliged to attend. No exams or term papers, either, and everybody will get an "A."

And finally, there will be only one football conference -- the State Flagship Conference, comprising fifty schools.
02-04-2020 07:01 PM
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Post: #148
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 07:01 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Yep, just like fish, the big ones eat the little ones, and there'll be only one school left in each state.

For example, I can see a time in the near future when all but one of Ohio's fourteen state universities, and all of their branch campuses and community colleges, are gobbled up. The sole survivor, Ohio State, will then have an enrollment of more than 500,000 students because it's the state flagship. They'll have to build twelve-lane highways from all directions for access and devote thousands of acres to parking so the kids can get to class on time. Classrooms will look like basketball arenas, with the one for Psych 101 seating 15,000 students.

It'll be the same in North Carolina. No more NC State, because it's not the state flagship. And no more ECU, because it's not the state flagship. They'll raze those campuses and turn them into corporate pig and chicken farms. Meanwhile, UNC will have an enrollment of 425,000, many of whom will receive credit for classes they aren't obliged to attend. No exams or term papers, either, and everybody will get an "A."

And finally, there will be only one football conference -- the State Flagship Conference, comprising fifty schools.

03-lmfao
02-04-2020 07:43 PM
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Post: #149
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 07:01 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Yep, just like fish, the big ones eat the little ones, and there'll be only one school left in each state.

For example, I can see a time in the near future when all but one of Ohio's fourteen state universities, and all of their branch campuses and community colleges, are gobbled up. The sole survivor, Ohio State, will then have an enrollment of more than 500,000 students because it's the state flagship. They'll have to build twelve-lane highways from all directions for access and devote thousands of acres to parking so the kids can get to class on time. Classrooms will look like basketball arenas, with the one for Psych 101 seating 15,000 students.

It'll be the same in North Carolina. No more NC State, because it's not the state flagship. And no more ECU, because it's not the state flagship. They'll raze those campuses and turn them into corporate pig and chicken farms. Meanwhile, UNC will have an enrollment of 425,000, many of whom will receive credit for classes they aren't obliged to attend. No exams or term papers, either, and everybody will get an "A."

And finally, there will be only one football conference -- the State Flagship Conference, comprising fifty schools.

One TEENY TINY flaw in your plan: State Consolidation. There won't be a North Dakota State. It will Montkota State. You will have the University of Verhampmaine. Idaming State. Plus Florida will be underwater, so there won't be a Florida State
02-04-2020 08:03 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #150
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 08:03 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 07:01 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Yep, just like fish, the big ones eat the little ones, and there'll be only one school left in each state.

For example, I can see a time in the near future when all but one of Ohio's fourteen state universities, and all of their branch campuses and community colleges, are gobbled up. The sole survivor, Ohio State, will then have an enrollment of more than 500,000 students because it's the state flagship. They'll have to build twelve-lane highways from all directions for access and devote thousands of acres to parking so the kids can get to class on time. Classrooms will look like basketball arenas, with the one for Psych 101 seating 15,000 students.

It'll be the same in North Carolina. No more NC State, because it's not the state flagship. And no more ECU, because it's not the state flagship. They'll raze those campuses and turn them into corporate pig and chicken farms. Meanwhile, UNC will have an enrollment of 425,000, many of whom will receive credit for classes they aren't obliged to attend. No exams or term papers, either, and everybody will get an "A."

And finally, there will be only one football conference -- the State Flagship Conference, comprising fifty schools.

One TEENY TINY flaw in your plan: State Consolidation. There won't be a North Dakota State. It will Montkota State. You will have the University of Verhampmaine. Idaming State. Plus Florida will be underwater, so there won't be a Florida State

There wouldn't be a Florida State University anyway, because it's not the state flagship. And Gainesville is 185 feet above sea level, so the University of Florida will be able to boast of ocean-front property.
02-05-2020 12:53 AM
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Post: #151
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 06:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Most of them are trying to be more selective. They don't want to be Southwest Middle State U.

Yeah, the flagships attempt to model other academic pillars. Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan want to be more like Stanford, Duke, Harvard, Penn, Cornell, etc., and other flagships want to be like Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan.

But, that definitely drew a line in the sand with athletics. Take the Cal system versus Cal State. Or, North Carolina with UNC and NCSU...others, especially East Carolina? Pound sand.

To some degree, that SUNY doesn't have one designated flagship is probably why you don't have one of its members in the P5. The politics of it all...
02-05-2020 02:46 PM
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Post: #152
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 05:37 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 04:43 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 10:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 09:07 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not sure I agree with this - the major public schools are definitely all still growing. I'm too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but South Carolina has grown by about 10k students in just the last 10-12 years and is planning on expanding even more as soon as some new dorms can be built. It's a similar situation at most SEC schools (and I imagine most P5 public schools)
Texas and the Big 10 schools are all about the same size they were 25 years ago. Texas A&M stayed the same size for 15 years or so until a policy change caused them to grow 10k in a short period of time. I don't see Florida, Georgia or Alabama trying to grow much beyond 40k.

I'm not so sure the SEC schools are doing growing. Here's a look over the last ten years (since 2009-10):

UF is static (50k)
Vandy is more or less static (undergrad enrollment around 6k, grad numbers unclear but the grand total was 13k in 2019)
Missouri is static (Lots of issue there due to 2015, but Freshman enrollment was at an all time high in 2019)
Tennessee is up 2000 (27k to 29k)
Kentucky is up 3000 (27.5k to 30.5k
UGA is up 5000 students (34k to 39K)
South Carolina is up 7000 (28k to 35k)

Mississippi St up 3000 (19k to 22k)
LSU is up 4,500 (26k to 31.7k)
Ole Miss is up 6000 (17k to 23k)
Auburn is up nearly 6000 (24.6K to 30.5k)
Alabama is up 8000 students (30k to 38k)
Arkansas is up over 10,000 (17k to 27.5k)
Texas A&M is up over 20,000 (48k to 68k)

UF and Vanderbilt seem to have made conscious choices to hold steady, but I see no slowing down from anyone else. I'd expect to see most begin to approach 35 or 40k in the next decade. South Carolina I know plans on going beyond that to around 50k in the next 25 years if they can build the dorms and academic buildings.

These growth numbers will take decades to begin paying dividends, but there is a tremendous curve coming as these graduates who are all in their 20s and early 30s will begin to enter their 40s and 50s over the next two decades.

You can expect to see the flagship and land grant state programs grow significantly in the coming years as they will start to cannibalize students from smaller regional and/or directional schools. By creating Honors Colleges, State U's can lower the admissions criteria while still maintaining the patina of high standards.

Definitely.

Another point that I forgot to mention is that a lot of the growth above was done during a recession. Many colleges saw their state funding collapse at the same time that donations slowed and construction projects stalled. Now the economy is roaring again.
02-05-2020 02:47 PM
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Post: #153
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-05-2020 02:46 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Most of them are trying to be more selective. They don't want to be Southwest Middle State U.

Yeah, the flagships attempt to model other academic pillars. Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan want to be more like Stanford, Duke, Harvard, Penn, Cornell, etc., and other flagships want to be like Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan.

But, that definitely drew a line in the sand with athletics. Take the Cal system versus Cal State. Or, North Carolina with UNC and NCSU...others, especially East Carolina? Pound sand.

To some degree, that SUNY doesn't have one designated flagship is probably why you don't have one of its members in the P5. The politics of it all...

It was more of SUNY not allowing athletic programs to offer scholarships. Buffalo had moved to University Division just before the state takeover and were playing a regional D1A schedule in football and basketball before dropping football and later dropping to D3 as part of the 1978 realignment. If UB had been able to maintain D1 athletics and if the Bills had left town in the early 70's, you would see UB as an AAC school at a minimum.
02-05-2020 03:31 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #154
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 07:01 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Yep, just like fish, the big ones eat the little ones, and there'll be only one school left in each state.

For example, I can see a time in the near future when all but one of Ohio's fourteen state universities, and all of their branch campuses and community colleges, are gobbled up. The sole survivor, Ohio State, will then have an enrollment of more than 500,000 students because it's the state flagship. They'll have to build twelve-lane highways from all directions for access and devote thousands of acres to parking so the kids can get to class on time. Classrooms will look like basketball arenas, with the one for Psych 101 seating 15,000 students.

It'll be the same in North Carolina. No more NC State, because it's not the state flagship. And no more ECU, because it's not the state flagship. They'll raze those campuses and turn them into corporate pig and chicken farms. Meanwhile, UNC will have an enrollment of 425,000, many of whom will receive credit for classes they aren't obliged to attend. No exams or term papers, either, and everybody will get an "A."

And finally, there will be only one football conference -- the State Flagship Conference, comprising fifty schools.

Laugh all you want but I’ll be right.
There will be Less college students in the future (the new trend) with Flagship U and (insert___State, —getting all the eligible kids that don’t want to go to either an elite private or an online U. Simply doesn’t make economic sense for a middle class family to send their kid to a Western Arizona or a Middle Tennessee St anymore. They’ll send them to Arizona, Tennessee or keep them at home to work a trade or go to online U.
Bookmark this. I sure will.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2020 05:44 PM by billybobby777.)
02-05-2020 04:45 PM
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Post: #155
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 08:54 PM)VCE Wrote:  Cincinnati looks like some P6 schools in success on the court, field and academics/endowment. They sit on the border between football crazy Ohio and basketball crazy Kentucky and (almost) Indiana.

They're in a basketball hotspot, but there are enough fans to support the three Cincy area programs plus however many KY and Louisville fans are across the river. I'd guess they are a strong 2nd in the area to OSU in football, ahead of even ND who has great ties there.

My perception is that Cincy is far less of a commuter school than Houston, Temple, UCF/USF and other city/directional schools. There's a reason they were invited to the BE 15 years ago. I have friends who are from there and who have graduated from there, maybe i'm biased.

BYU seems like a good fit in the P6, at least athletically. I think the nationwide fanbase is overrated; they aren't ND. Additionally, the conservative nature may keep them out of the club, but BYU students are generally exceptional and bright in both intellect and life achievements.

CSU has had some success in football- I remember them being in Sports Illustrated's top 25 polls back in the 80s/90s once in a while, but they have a lot less pull in CO than many realize. I'd say close to half of the CSU grads i know grew up as CU fans, and many have remained so.

U?F is tough to judge. At some point, the two may become too big to ignore. I know that the academics at both are improving, but there aren't a ton of their alums on Wall Street, big law, big accounting, elite government, etc.

I've worked with, for and managed people from the above schools, excepting the FL twins. I hope that dynamic changes for them, but until it does, I don't see Big State snobs inviting them into the group.

I don't think you have any idea what Temple is like now. We built the most expensive dorm in the country a few years ago ($216M), with so much more private housing built around campus. There is still far more demand than supply.

Temple is only a commuter school now if you consider living with roommates in South Philly or Fishtown commuting.
02-05-2020 05:42 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #156
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-05-2020 03:31 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(02-05-2020 02:46 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Most of them are trying to be more selective. They don't want to be Southwest Middle State U.

Yeah, the flagships attempt to model other academic pillars. Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan want to be more like Stanford, Duke, Harvard, Penn, Cornell, etc., and other flagships want to be like Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan.

But, that definitely drew a line in the sand with athletics. Take the Cal system versus Cal State. Or, North Carolina with UNC and NCSU...others, especially East Carolina? Pound sand.

To some degree, that SUNY doesn't have one designated flagship is probably why you don't have one of its members in the P5. The politics of it all...

It was more of SUNY not allowing athletic programs to offer scholarships. Buffalo had moved to University Division just before the state takeover and were playing a regional D1A schedule in football and basketball before dropping football and later dropping to D3 as part of the 1978 realignment. If UB had been able to maintain D1 athletics and if the Bills had left town in the early 70's, you would see UB as an AAC school at a minimum.

If the Bills had left and they were name University of New York they’d be ACC at minimum and part of the original Big East FB of 1990. (In place of Temple)
02-05-2020 05:46 PM
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JHG722 Offline
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Post: #157
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Buffalo? No.
02-05-2020 05:50 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #158
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-05-2020 05:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(02-05-2020 03:31 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(02-05-2020 02:46 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-04-2020 06:10 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I see the flagships of the state they are in eating up the public non-flagships soon. Consolidation. The Walmartization effect.

Most of them are trying to be more selective. They don't want to be Southwest Middle State U.

Yeah, the flagships attempt to model other academic pillars. Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan want to be more like Stanford, Duke, Harvard, Penn, Cornell, etc., and other flagships want to be like Berkeley, UVA, and Michigan.

But, that definitely drew a line in the sand with athletics. Take the Cal system versus Cal State. Or, North Carolina with UNC and NCSU...others, especially East Carolina? Pound sand.

To some degree, that SUNY doesn't have one designated flagship is probably why you don't have one of its members in the P5. The politics of it all...

It was more of SUNY not allowing athletic programs to offer scholarships. Buffalo had moved to University Division just before the state takeover and were playing a regional D1A schedule in football and basketball before dropping football and later dropping to D3 as part of the 1978 realignment. If UB had been able to maintain D1 athletics and if the Bills had left town in the early 70's, you would see UB as an AAC school at a minimum.

If the Bills had left and they were name University of New York they’d be ACC at minimum and part of the original Big East FB of 1990. (In place of Temple)

My guess is Syracuse would have shot that down easily. If anyone else from New York was parking football in the Big East back then, it was Army. Buffalo was not going to overtake Syracuse.

I do think it's in UB's interest to really invest in its athletics to distinguish itself high above the other SUNY campuses. It's obvious Stony wants out and up, but, they too stumble quite a bit. Over enough time, and Buffalo continues being Buffalo, but Stony keeps building and growing? Stony may have the higher ceiling. But, long, long way off.
02-06-2020 08:31 AM
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GreenBaron Offline
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Post: #159
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Stony Brook student here.

You would think with all our stats (AAU Research affiliation, nearly 30,000 students, academic profile similar or even better to some B1G schools) that would we be P5 by now. But SUNY has royally screwed up our growth of athletics in our university. The fanbase hates SUNY. Especially when Gov. Cuomo vetoed a $22M stadium expansion that would have given us an FBS-level stadium. I’ve personally never forgiven the man since.

Some posts expressed concern with “the smaller SUNYs”, and I say, to hell with them! I would jump with joy if they started shutting down because Stony Brook fans see their existence as a drain on resources, taking state money that we could be using instead. I’m talking dumps like Oswego, Oneonta, Fredonia, etc. SUNY has 64 schools but only 4 are relevant, the ones mentioned in this thread. Everything else is either a community college or a D3 school with no academic prestige either.

I do think naming might have played a role. If Buffalo/Stony Brook was New York/New York State – whichever one - maybe it would make it analogous to Michigan/Michigan State.

Binghamton will never move up in conference. Their athletic program is most known for a basketball scandal and their students are angry at the school for receiving a $60M donation for baseball. Albany has decent sports but it’s academics are easily seen as the worst of the 4 SUNYs.
02-13-2020 03:19 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #160
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
First we have to assume there will be a P5 10 years from now and the Big 12 is still a P5 and Texas and/or Oklahoma haven't taken invitations to one of the other conferences.

Assuming the Big 12 is intact, Central Florida looks good. Maybe the Big 12 goes with both Florida schools, UCF/USF.
02-13-2020 03:45 PM
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