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10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #121
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 08:24 AM)TerryD Wrote:  How are the schools in red going to pay for themselves plus boost the pay of others?

Which conferences will take the hit on their bottom line to add them?

Will the SEC and Big Ten take a haircut? Will anyone else?

The argument has always been that the money will come if the schools in question are playing a P5 schedule. If you look at Utah, TCU and Louisville, there seems to be some merit to that argument. But those ascensions occurred in the cable market share era. In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

Cart before the horse.

A conference needs the proposed new school to already have a media company ready to pay the conference tens of millions of dollars more immediately, or the conference and the existing schools take a instant pay cut.

The school either can pay for themselves and others right away or they bring everyone else's paycheck down upon admission.

If the proposed school cannot instantly generate those tens of millions upon application to the conference, then no P5 conference is going to add them in the hope that "the money will come if the school(s) in question are playing a P5 schedule" some day down the road.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2020 08:24 AM by TerryD.)
02-03-2020 08:22 AM
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Post: #122
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.
02-03-2020 09:13 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #123
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not really, the issue for the Old State Flagships schools are the number of alumni who did well and donate. The problem for many schools who crank out lots of graduates is that if there isn't a consistent % of graduates who strike it big in the business or professional world it doesn't translate well into contributions and if the school isn't a brand sports school it doesn't even translate into ticket sales.

Furthermore the demographic worm is going to turn on the # of college students starting around 2034. The boom and the children of the boom will have passed through the system and simply aren't having the number of kids that their parents and grandparents had, or their great-grandparents had following WWII.

What we are going to see is the drying up of the educational wadis now that the Spring rains are over. Small privates are the canary in the coal mine on this and they are already dying off. Directional state schools will become function oriented like the normal colleges of old, and the large state schools will be research and profession oriented even more than they are now. Junior colleges will essentially become trade schools sponsored by local industries which need pipelines for trained employees.

Such streamlining and tasking is already underway as states shrink their higher education budgets not by starving their main schools, but by downsizing and retasking the smaller ones.
02-03-2020 01:25 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #124
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 08:22 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 08:24 AM)TerryD Wrote:  How are the schools in red going to pay for themselves plus boost the pay of others?

Which conferences will take the hit on their bottom line to add them?

Will the SEC and Big Ten take a haircut? Will anyone else?

The argument has always been that the money will come if the schools in question are playing a P5 schedule. If you look at Utah, TCU and Louisville, there seems to be some merit to that argument. But those ascensions occurred in the cable market share era. In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

Cart before the horse.

A conference needs the proposed new school to already have a media company ready to pay the conference tens of millions of dollars more immediately, or the conference and the existing schools take a instant pay cut.

The school either can pay for themselves and others right away or they bring everyone else's paycheck down upon admission.

If the proposed school cannot instantly generate those tens of millions upon application to the conference, then no P5 conference is going to add them in the hope that "the money will come if the school(s) in question are playing a P5 schedule" some day down the road.

Right. There are three separate considerations, and an ideal addition hits on all three, it's whether a new member: (1) Generates money internally (donations plus ticket revenue) at a P5 level; (2) Performs well enough in football and men's hoops; (3) Increases the media value of the conference enough that the current members' media revenue will be increased by the addition.

Even Utah, TCU, and Louisville did well enough on (1) and (2), but not on (3). TV didn't pay more for those P5 conferences to add those schools.
02-03-2020 01:55 PM
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Post: #125
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not really, the issue for the Old State Flagships schools are the number of alumni who did well and donate. The problem for many schools who crank out lots of graduates is that if there isn't a consistent % of graduates who strike it big in the business or professional world it doesn't translate well into contributions and if the school isn't a brand sports school it doesn't even translate into ticket sales.

Furthermore the demographic worm is going to turn on the # of college students starting around 2034. The boom and the children of the boom will have passed through the system and simply aren't having the number of kids that their parents and grandparents had, or their great-grandparents had following WWII.

What we are going to see is the drying up of the educational wadis now that the Spring rains are over. Small privates are the canary in the coal mine on this and they are already dying off. Directional state schools will become function oriented like the normal colleges of old, and the large state schools will be research and profession oriented even more than they are now. Junior colleges will essentially become trade schools sponsored by local industries which need pipelines for trained employees.

Such streamlining and tasking is already underway as states shrink their higher education budgets not by starving their main schools, but by downsizing and retasking the smaller ones.

My point is that the P5 will weaken, not so much that new schools will rise up.
02-03-2020 01:56 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #126
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 01:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not really, the issue for the Old State Flagships schools are the number of alumni who did well and donate. The problem for many schools who crank out lots of graduates is that if there isn't a consistent % of graduates who strike it big in the business or professional world it doesn't translate well into contributions and if the school isn't a brand sports school it doesn't even translate into ticket sales.

Furthermore the demographic worm is going to turn on the # of college students starting around 2034. The boom and the children of the boom will have passed through the system and simply aren't having the number of kids that their parents and grandparents had, or their great-grandparents had following WWII.

What we are going to see is the drying up of the educational wadis now that the Spring rains are over. Small privates are the canary in the coal mine on this and they are already dying off. Directional state schools will become function oriented like the normal colleges of old, and the large state schools will be research and profession oriented even more than they are now. Junior colleges will essentially become trade schools sponsored by local industries which need pipelines for trained employees.

Such streamlining and tasking is already underway as states shrink their higher education budgets not by starving their main schools, but by downsizing and retasking the smaller ones.

My point is that the P5 will weaken, not so much that new schools will rise up.

I don't disagree. I'm just saying the culling has begun and not on the athletic field. Small privates are disappearing today. More and larger privates will likely follow since so many are reliant upon individual donations and perpetuate smaller alumni bases. The research emphasis is going to continue to define the P schools and competition for top students even there is going to become more fierce. So of course there will be a thinning of the overall composition, just not a drastic one due to the natures of our states.
02-03-2020 02:07 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #127
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Private schools come and go, though. Even a century ago, you had small private colleges starting to shutter because they outlived their initial scope and mission.

The bloat and bubble is on the public side. Consider the public systems in some states, and where you have such operating redundancies. Pennsylvania is a good example of this, where you have Penn State (which isn't a fully public institution) trying to keep its system campuses alive, competing with PASSHE institutions (and more than a few of these are really hurting), and you have community colleges offering something different as well. There's not enough room for them all.

And, those HBCU's...

It's not surprising that some of the fast-rising schools are public ones that are part of larger systems. Consider Stony Brook, or UC-Merced. Where else in the country is this kind of growth or institutional birth possible? But, how did Stony prosper, and did it come at the expense of the many private schools near there, or other SUNY campuses? Did Cal State take a hit for Merced?

The private schools DO go away. The public ones, when they start to flop...it gets political and extremely ugly. And everything suffers for it.

I look at Ohio, where you have a lot of public D1 schools...I'm amazed there are still so many at that level, let alone still open.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2020 05:06 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-03-2020 05:05 PM
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Post: #128
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 05:05 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Private schools come and go, though. Even a century ago, you had small private colleges starting to shutter because they outlived their initial scope and mission.

The bloat and bubble is on the public side. Consider the public systems in some states, and where you have such operating redundancies. Pennsylvania is a good example of this, where you have Penn State (which isn't a fully public institution) trying to keep its system campuses alive, competing with PASSHE institutions (and more than a few of these are really hurting), and you have community colleges offering something different as well. There's not enough room for them all.

And, those HBCU's...

It's not surprising that some of the fast-rising schools are public ones that are part of larger systems. Consider Stony Brook, or UC-Merced. Where else in the country is this kind of growth or institutional birth possible? But, how did Stony prosper, and did it come at the expense of the many private schools near there, or other SUNY campuses? Did Cal State take a hit for Merced?

The private schools DO go away. The public ones, when they start to flop...it gets political and extremely ugly. And everything suffers for it.

I look at Ohio, where you have a lot of public D1 schools...I'm amazed there are still so many at that level, let alone still open.

A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.
02-03-2020 05:12 PM
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Post: #129
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 08:22 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 08:24 AM)TerryD Wrote:  How are the schools in red going to pay for themselves plus boost the pay of others?

Which conferences will take the hit on their bottom line to add them?

Will the SEC and Big Ten take a haircut? Will anyone else?

The argument has always been that the money will come if the schools in question are playing a P5 schedule. If you look at Utah, TCU and Louisville, there seems to be some merit to that argument. But those ascensions occurred in the cable market share era. In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

Cart before the horse.

A conference needs the proposed new school to already have a media company ready to pay the conference tens of millions of dollars more immediately, or the conference and the existing schools take a instant pay cut.

The school either can pay for themselves and others right away or they bring everyone else's paycheck down upon admission.

If the proposed school cannot instantly generate those tens of millions upon application to the conference, then no P5 conference is going to add them in the hope that "the money will come if the school(s) in question are playing a P5 schedule" some day down the road.

You expand to make money, and certainly the particulars are going to be worked out before hand.
Athletic depts break even, the conf is also looking for research money, draw students to increase enrollemnt. Build up population for state.
Id imagine Kansas would love to increase tax base & federal money.

I drove from San Antonio to El Paso with my daughter, I thought I was in cowboy movie. A Lot of space in B-12 country.
Northeast has A Lot of people living on top each other, in ageing infrastructure with wages being cut.

As far as running out of students, not with are borders
02-03-2020 07:37 PM
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Post: #130
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 05:05 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Private schools come and go, though. Even a century ago, you had small private colleges starting to shutter because they outlived their initial scope and mission.

The bloat and bubble is on the public side. Consider the public systems in some states, and where you have such operating redundancies. Pennsylvania is a good example of this, where you have Penn State (which isn't a fully public institution) trying to keep its system campuses alive, competing with PASSHE institutions (and more than a few of these are really hurting), and you have community colleges offering something different as well. There's not enough room for them all.

And, those HBCU's...

It's not surprising that some of the fast-rising schools are public ones that are part of larger systems. Consider Stony Brook, or UC-Merced. Where else in the country is this kind of growth or institutional birth possible? But, how did Stony prosper, and did it come at the expense of the many private schools near there, or other SUNY campuses? Did Cal State take a hit for Merced?

The private schools DO go away. The public ones, when they start to flop...it gets political and extremely ugly. And everything suffers for it.

I look at Ohio, where you have a lot of public D1 schools...I'm amazed there are still so many at that level, let alone still open.

In Stony Brook's case, it was location. They are literally the only public flagship in downstate and Long Island outside of NYC. When you have that, you are at a huge advantage.
02-03-2020 08:17 PM
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Post: #131
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Cincinnati looks like some P6 schools in success on the court, field and academics/endowment. They sit on the border between football crazy Ohio and basketball crazy Kentucky and (almost) Indiana.

They're in a basketball hotspot, but there are enough fans to support the three Cincy area programs plus however many KY and Louisville fans are across the river. I'd guess they are a strong 2nd in the area to OSU in football, ahead of even ND who has great ties there.

My perception is that Cincy is far less of a commuter school than Houston, Temple, UCF/USF and other city/directional schools. There's a reason they were invited to the BE 15 years ago. I have friends who are from there and who have graduated from there, maybe i'm biased.

BYU seems like a good fit in the P6, at least athletically. I think the nationwide fanbase is overrated; they aren't ND. Additionally, the conservative nature may keep them out of the club, but BYU students are generally exceptional and bright in both intellect and life achievements.

CSU has had some success in football- I remember them being in Sports Illustrated's top 25 polls back in the 80s/90s once in a while, but they have a lot less pull in CO than many realize. I'd say close to half of the CSU grads i know grew up as CU fans, and many have remained so.

U?F is tough to judge. At some point, the two may become too big to ignore. I know that the academics at both are improving, but there aren't a ton of their alums on Wall Street, big law, big accounting, elite government, etc.

I've worked with, for and managed people from the above schools, excepting the FL twins. I hope that dynamic changes for them, but until it does, I don't see Big State snobs inviting them into the group.
02-03-2020 08:54 PM
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Post: #132
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 08:54 PM)VCE Wrote:  Cincinnati looks like some P6 schools in success on the court, field and academics/endowment. They sit on the border between football crazy Ohio and basketball crazy Kentucky and (almost) Indiana.

They're in a basketball hotspot, but there are enough fans to support the three Cincy area programs plus however many KY and Louisville fans are across the river. I'd guess they are a strong 2nd in the area to OSU in football, ahead of even ND who has great ties there.

My perception is that Cincy is far less of a commuter school than Houston, Temple, UCF/USF and other city/directional schools. There's a reason they were invited to the BE 15 years ago. I have friends who are from there and who have graduated from there, maybe i'm biased.

BYU seems like a good fit in the P6, at least athletically. I think the nationwide fanbase is overrated; they aren't ND. Additionally, the conservative nature may keep them out of the club, but BYU students are generally exceptional and bright in both intellect and life achievements.

CSU has had some success in football- I remember them being in Sports Illustrated's top 25 polls back in the 80s/90s once in a while, but they have a lot less pull in CO than many realize. I'd say close to half of the CSU grads i know grew up as CU fans, and many have remained so.

U?F is tough to judge. At some point, the two may become too big to ignore. I know that the academics at both are improving, but there aren't a ton of their alums on Wall Street, big law, big accounting, elite government, etc.

I've worked with, for and managed people from the above schools, excepting the FL twins. I hope that dynamic changes for them, but until it does, I don't see Big State snobs inviting them into the group.


On the the Cincinnati theme, I'll weigh in and also will use Louisville and Memphis for context since the three share various similarities and histories. (Note: my brother attended UC, my sister-in-law attended UL and my parents attend UM).

Cincinnati in terms of endowment ($1.4B), enrollment and academic prestige is a Power 5-level university. Of note, its somewhat smallish campus size (in terms of number of buildings and acreage) does not suggest a university of more than 40,000 students. The men's hoops program is far stronger historically than many folks realize, and football has taken off the past 15 years or so. UC is deserving of a power league home (admittedly, I'm biased).

Louisville counters (and earned the ACC invite) due to a extremely impressive combination of football, men's and women's hoops, and baseball. I'm not sure there has ever been an urban "city" university (public or private) that has done collectively so well in all four sports for so many years. Academically, UL is solid — but no Cincy.

Memphis has challenges. It's endowment ($215M) and enrollment (about 22,000) are so-so. Its academics are modest (but improving). Obviously, men's basketball is a huge deal, in large part because the city is overwhelmingly basketball crazy (an extremely large African-American population is a major factor in that). When the Tigers are winning big on the hardwood, seemingly the entire city gets behind them. Regardless, Memphis is not nearly as ready as UC for a power league invite.

The "Big Three" for P5 inclusion (in my book) are Cincy, UConn and BYU.

UConn could still get the call up despite a horrendous football situation. All the other key elements are place. The Big East (a power league in men's hoops) will be an outstanding place for all its non-football sports. But make no mistake: if the ACC invites, UConn is gone. Still, I struggle to see that happening.

BYU has the academic and athletic budgets, endowment, prestige, athletic facilities ... go down the list.

A school that some tend to unfairly downplay when talking about a "call up" is Houston. Very similar to Cincy in terms of enrollment, endowment, athletics, academics, etc. Strong combo of football and men's hoops (nice history in both).

And you can't overlook UCF, USF, Boise, San Diego State and Colorado State.

Having written all this, there simply are not many "slots" left in the Power 5 club.
02-03-2020 10:22 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #133
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 08:17 PM)whittx Wrote:  In Stony Brook's case, it was location. They are literally the only public flagship in downstate and Long Island outside of NYC. When you have that, you are at a huge advantage.

Farmingdale might take offense to that. The ironic thing is that Stony now has a presence in NYC. As if CUNY needed more coverage.

Where it relates to this thread, I think the four major SUNY campuses (Buffalo, Stony Brook, Albany, and Binghamton) have the potential of outgrowing their current conferences (and what of Stony's 2020 campaign?). It would generate growth at those specific campuses. But, what of the others in the system?

CliftonAve Wrote:A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

This is Cheyney and PA. Between them, Lincoln (the also ailing commonwealth HBCU), West Chester, PSU Philly campuses, and many small private colleges in the area all trying to grab the same kinds of students.

In Ohio, does the consolidation or merger talk come up often or at all? Does it seem like that will happen for some of its schools?
02-04-2020 04:56 AM
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Post: #134
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 04:56 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 08:17 PM)whittx Wrote:  In Stony Brook's case, it was location. They are literally the only public flagship in downstate and Long Island outside of NYC. When you have that, you are at a huge advantage.

Farmingdale might take offense to that. The ironic thing is that Stony now has a presence in NYC. As if CUNY needed more coverage.

Where it relates to this thread, I think the four major SUNY campuses (Buffalo, Stony Brook, Albany, and Binghamton) have the potential of outgrowing their current conferences (and what of Stony's 2020 campaign?). It would generate growth at those specific campuses. But, what of the others in the system?

CliftonAve Wrote:A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

This is Cheyney and PA. Between them, Lincoln (the also ailing commonwealth HBCU), West Chester, PSU Philly campuses, and many small private colleges in the area all trying to grab the same kinds of students.

In Ohio, does the consolidation or merger talk come up often or at all? Does it seem like that will happen for some of its schools?

Read this article from 2017. It is more Dayton area focused, but some other schools are in the same boat, particularly Akron. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.daytond...J/amp.html
02-04-2020 05:38 AM
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Post: #135
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not really, the issue for the Old State Flagships schools are the number of alumni who did well and donate. The problem for many schools who crank out lots of graduates is that if there isn't a consistent % of graduates who strike it big in the business or professional world it doesn't translate well into contributions and if the school isn't a brand sports school it doesn't even translate into ticket sales.

Furthermore the demographic worm is going to turn on the # of college students starting around 2034. The boom and the children of the boom will have passed through the system and simply aren't having the number of kids that their parents and grandparents had, or their great-grandparents had following WWII.

What we are going to see is the drying up of the educational wadis now that the Spring rains are over. Small privates are the canary in the coal mine on this and they are already dying off. Directional state schools will become function oriented like the normal colleges of old, and the large state schools will be research and profession oriented even more than they are now. Junior colleges will essentially become trade schools sponsored by local industries which need pipelines for trained employees.

Such streamlining and tasking is already underway as states shrink their higher education budgets not by starving their main schools, but by downsizing and retasking the smaller ones.

To an extent that might be true, but one thing I have been noticing lately is that more colleges are developing online programs, including the large state schools JR. It's not that young adults don't want to go off to college but rather they really don't have the financial means to do so, and graduating with a lot of debt doesn't really appeal to them, nor should it.

Also, different states are going to have to take a hard look at their own policies affecting college funding and tuition and revamp their policies so that more students can graduate without so much student debt. I'm talking about states like California, New York, Illinois, etc. This won't affect private colleges so much as state schools because the public is used to paying a premium for private schools anyway. States that are losing a lot of their population be will have to close some of their schools down unfortunately, but I don't see this as a permanent condition if states will be willing to re-examine their policies and laws.
02-04-2020 06:32 AM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #136
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 04:56 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 08:17 PM)whittx Wrote:  In Stony Brook's case, it was location. They are literally the only public flagship in downstate and Long Island outside of NYC. When you have that, you are at a huge advantage.

Farmingdale might take offense to that. The ironic thing is that Stony now has a presence in NYC. As if CUNY needed more coverage.

Where it relates to this thread, I think the four major SUNY campuses (Buffalo, Stony Brook, Albany, and Binghamton) have the potential of outgrowing their current conferences (and what of Stony's 2020 campaign?). It would generate growth at those specific campuses. But, what of the others in the system?

CliftonAve Wrote:A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

This is Cheyney and PA. Between them, Lincoln (the also ailing commonwealth HBCU), West Chester, PSU Philly campuses, and many small private colleges in the area all trying to grab the same kinds of students.

In Ohio, does the consolidation or merger talk come up often or at all? Does it seem like that will happen for some of its schools?

Farmingdale isn't a flagship. That being said, Binghamton is going to struggle moving up since they are a non-fb school in a dying area. Buffalo should be in the AAC at a minimum but decisions made when UB transitioned to a public university set the athletic program back 30 years. Albany and Stony Brook had similar issues due to the SUNY philosophy in the 60s and 70s. Keep in mind that at one point in the 60's and early 70's, Brockport was supposed to transition into the 5th University Center. The end of the baby boom and open enrollment, coupled with the state hitting a financial crisis killed that idea.
02-04-2020 08:54 AM
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Post: #137
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not sure I agree with this - the major public schools are definitely all still growing. I'm too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but South Carolina has grown by about 10k students in just the last 10-12 years and is planning on expanding even more as soon as some new dorms can be built. It's a similar situation at most SEC schools (and I imagine most P5 public schools)
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2020 09:11 AM by Gamecock.)
02-04-2020 09:07 AM
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Post: #138
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-03-2020 05:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 05:05 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Private schools come and go, though. Even a century ago, you had small private colleges starting to shutter because they outlived their initial scope and mission.

The bloat and bubble is on the public side. Consider the public systems in some states, and where you have such operating redundancies. Pennsylvania is a good example of this, where you have Penn State (which isn't a fully public institution) trying to keep its system campuses alive, competing with PASSHE institutions (and more than a few of these are really hurting), and you have community colleges offering something different as well. There's not enough room for them all.

And, those HBCU's...

It's not surprising that some of the fast-rising schools are public ones that are part of larger systems. Consider Stony Brook, or UC-Merced. Where else in the country is this kind of growth or institutional birth possible? But, how did Stony prosper, and did it come at the expense of the many private schools near there, or other SUNY campuses? Did Cal State take a hit for Merced?

The private schools DO go away. The public ones, when they start to flop...it gets political and extremely ugly. And everything suffers for it.

I look at Ohio, where you have a lot of public D1 schools...I'm amazed there are still so many at that level, let alone still open.

A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

Ohio has a ton of small private colleges.
02-04-2020 10:18 AM
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Post: #139
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 09:07 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.

And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.

UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.

You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.

Not sure I agree with this - the major public schools are definitely all still growing. I'm too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but South Carolina has grown by about 10k students in just the last 10-12 years and is planning on expanding even more as soon as some new dorms can be built. It's a similar situation at most SEC schools (and I imagine most P5 public schools)
Texas and the Big 10 schools are all about the same size they were 25 years ago. Texas A&M stayed the same size for 15 years or so until a policy change caused them to grow 10k in a short period of time. I don't see Florida, Georgia or Alabama trying to grow much beyond 40k.
02-04-2020 10:28 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #140
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(02-04-2020 10:18 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 05:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(02-03-2020 05:05 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Private schools come and go, though. Even a century ago, you had small private colleges starting to shutter because they outlived their initial scope and mission.

The bloat and bubble is on the public side. Consider the public systems in some states, and where you have such operating redundancies. Pennsylvania is a good example of this, where you have Penn State (which isn't a fully public institution) trying to keep its system campuses alive, competing with PASSHE institutions (and more than a few of these are really hurting), and you have community colleges offering something different as well. There's not enough room for them all.

And, those HBCU's...

It's not surprising that some of the fast-rising schools are public ones that are part of larger systems. Consider Stony Brook, or UC-Merced. Where else in the country is this kind of growth or institutional birth possible? But, how did Stony prosper, and did it come at the expense of the many private schools near there, or other SUNY campuses? Did Cal State take a hit for Merced?

The private schools DO go away. The public ones, when they start to flop...it gets political and extremely ugly. And everything suffers for it.

I look at Ohio, where you have a lot of public D1 schools...I'm amazed there are still so many at that level, let alone still open.

A couple of those Ohio publics will consolidate in the next 10-15 years IMHO. There are a bunch of small private colleges that will close their doors as well. I think the HBCUs will be kept around at the tax payer expense, nobody wants to be that guy to tell them they have to close their doors.

Ohio has a ton of small private colleges.

Most of them are struggling. Sure, schools like Kenyon College and Case Western are doing fine, but a lot of them are seeing massive enrollment dips, their donor base is dying out and are bleeding money overall. Here's an article out of Cleveland from a couple years ago

https://www.crainscleveland.com/educatio...iversities


My son is in his second year at UC. When he was considering schools he applied to XU and Mount St. Joe's. Both schools bent over backwards in terms of discounts to entice him to their schools (both schools reduced their tuition to match UC's base price). My son was a slightly above average student. I can only imagine what they offered the kids who were knocking the cover off the ball.
02-04-2020 10:39 AM
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