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10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #81
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 08:22 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

PA 6,400,995

One nit. The population of Pennsylvania is 12.82 million.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/...opulation/

There are two (2) P5 schools in Pennsylvania: Penn State of the Big Ten and Pitt of the ACC. Divide PA's population by two and you arrive at 6.4m per P5 school.
01-28-2020 01:05 AM
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Cajuns1252 Offline
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Post: #82
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Because half of these post don’t make any sense and are never gonna happen I’m gonna go WAY out in left field.

Power five conferences stay the same, AAC slips in and becomes the power 6. The MWC freaks and decides to kick out some dead weight and find schools that sound more like flagship schools...even though they're not, and maybe a private school here or there for academic prestige, and BAM P7 happens with a conference of:

Nevada
Hawaii
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
New Mexico
Louisiana
Arkansas State
Texas State
Boise State
San Diego State
Rice
Air Force
BYU
01-28-2020 05:33 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #83
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 01:05 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 08:22 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

PA 6,400,995

One nit. The population of Pennsylvania is 12.82 million.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/...opulation/

There are two (2) P5 schools in Pennsylvania: Penn State of the Big Ten and Pitt of the ACC. Divide PA's population by two and you arrive at 6.4m per P5 school.

My bad. I thought you were just listing state populations. Sorry about that.
01-28-2020 05:58 AM
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westwolf Offline
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Post: #84
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 05:33 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  Because half of these post don’t make any sense and are never gonna happen I’m gonna go WAY out in left field.

Power five conferences stay the same, AAC slips in and becomes the power 6. The MWC freaks and decides to kick out some dead weight and find schools that sound more like flagship schools...even though they're not, and maybe a private school here or there for academic prestige, and BAM P7 happens with a conference of:

Nevada
Hawaii
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
New Mexico
Louisiana
Arkansas State
Texas State
Boise State
San Diego State
Rice
Air Force
BYU

I don't see La Laf with that group.
01-28-2020 11:17 AM
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Cajuns1252 Offline
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Post: #85
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 11:17 AM)westwolf Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 05:33 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  Because half of these post don’t make any sense and are never gonna happen I’m gonna go WAY out in left field.

Power five conferences stay the same, AAC slips in and becomes the power 6. The MWC freaks and decides to kick out some dead weight and find schools that sound more like flagship schools...even though they're not, and maybe a private school here or there for academic prestige, and BAM P7 happens with a conference of:

Nevada
Hawaii
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
New Mexico
Louisiana
Arkansas State
Texas State
Boise State
San Diego State
Rice
Air Force
BYU

I don't see La Laf with that group.

That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.
01-28-2020 11:23 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #86
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 11:23 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.

03-lmfao

What, did the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (a Real Thing, btw) lose its athletic program?
01-28-2020 11:29 AM
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Cajuns1252 Offline
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Post: #87
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 11:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:23 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.

03-lmfao

What, did the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (a Real Thing, btw) lose its athletic program?

Officially became “Louisiana” about 4 years ago athletics wise, just like University of North Carolina Chapel Hill is the academic name of the university but “North Carolina” is the athletic name.
01-28-2020 11:32 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #88
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 11:32 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:23 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.

03-lmfao

What, did the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (a Real Thing, btw) lose its athletic program?

Officially became “Louisiana” about 4 years ago athletics wise, just like University of North Carolina Chapel Hill is the academic name of the university but “North Carolina” is the athletic name.

No, very different. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is called "North Carolina" by everyone because it is the flagship university of the state of North Carolina and its university system. It is also the most prestigious public university in the state, so is the university that more than other is the "face" of the state nationally. The same applies to the University of Texas at Austin, Cal-Berkeley, etc.

In contrast, Louisiana-Lafayette is not the flagship of anything, is not the most prestigious state university, or anything like that. It is not the academic "face" of the state to the nation, etc. So calling it "Louisiana" creates the mistaken impression that it is those things. And we don't like to traffic in false impressions, eh?

UL-Lafayette is a fine school with a fine athletic program. But it is what it is - Louisiana Lafayette.
01-28-2020 12:11 PM
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Post: #89
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 12:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:32 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:23 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.

03-lmfao

What, did the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (a Real Thing, btw) lose its athletic program?

Officially became “Louisiana” about 4 years ago athletics wise, just like University of North Carolina Chapel Hill is the academic name of the university but “North Carolina” is the athletic name.

No, very different. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is called "North Carolina" by everyone because it is the flagship university of the state of North Carolina and its university system. It is also the most prestigious public university in the state, so is the university that more than other is the "face" of the state nationally. The same applies to the University of Texas at Austin, Cal-Berkeley, etc.

In contrast, Louisiana-Lafayette is not the flagship of anything, is not the most prestigious state university, or anything like that. It is not the academic "face" of the state to the nation, etc. So calling it "Louisiana" creates the mistaken impression that it is those things. And we don't like to traffic in false impressions, eh?

UL-Lafayette is a fine school with a fine athletic program. But it is what it is - Louisiana Lafayette.

Are you going to say all the Southwest schools have to go back to their old names--Missouri State-Southwest Missouri State, Texas State-Southwest Texas State, ULL-University of Southwestern Louisiana??? Should Indiana State and Illinois State go back to State Teacher's College? Should Ohio University, the oldest university in Ohio, have to change its name because Ohio State is now the flagship? (Ohio State lost that lawsuit-trying to trademark "Ohio").

They can call themselves anything they want as long as they aren't copying anyone.
01-28-2020 12:26 PM
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Jugnaut Offline
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Post: #90
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
To address the OP question:
These are the teams on the right path:
1) UCF-great TV market, recruiting state, multiple top 25 finishes, NY6 bowls, and conference championships, good facilities, large university, stadium designed to be expanded to 65k.
2) Houston-Similar to UCF, but less NY6 bowls, and in already in the Big 12 footprint (blessing and a curse)
3) UC-former BCS member, multiple big bowls, good football history, great basketball program, recruiting state, good media market.
4) Memphis-NY6 appearence, recent competitiveness, good facilities, good tv market, great basketball program
5) USF-great tv market, large rented nfl stadium, but not much else, no real football success. I only include them because they may ride UCFs coat-tails into a conference. Otherwise, no reason why anyone would pick them over UCF. Really need to invest in their neglected program.
6) BYU-would be the most attractive choice out there except for the religion and diva mindset.

All these would be potential candidates for the Big 12. Don't see anyone on the radar really, maybe Colorado State. Don't see any other power conference expanding with a G5 team besides the Big 12.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2020 12:54 PM by Jugnaut.)
01-28-2020 12:36 PM
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Cajuns1252 Offline
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Post: #91
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 12:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 12:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:32 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:23 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.

03-lmfao

What, did the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (a Real Thing, btw) lose its athletic program?

Officially became “Louisiana” about 4 years ago athletics wise, just like University of North Carolina Chapel Hill is the academic name of the university but “North Carolina” is the athletic name.

No, very different. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is called "North Carolina" by everyone because it is the flagship university of the state of North Carolina and its university system. It is also the most prestigious public university in the state, so is the university that more than other is the "face" of the state nationally. The same applies to the University of Texas at Austin, Cal-Berkeley, etc.

In contrast, Louisiana-Lafayette is not the flagship of anything, is not the most prestigious state university, or anything like that. It is not the academic "face" of the state to the nation, etc. So calling it "Louisiana" creates the mistaken impression that it is those things. And we don't like to traffic in false impressions, eh?

UL-Lafayette is a fine school with a fine athletic program. But it is what it is - Louisiana Lafayette.

Are you going to say all the Southwest schools have to go back to their old names--Missouri State-Southwest Missouri State, Texas State-Southwest Texas State, ULL-University of Southwestern Louisiana??? Should Indiana State and Illinois State go back to State Teacher's College? Should Ohio University, the oldest university in Ohio, have to change its name because Ohio State is now the flagship? (Ohio State lost that lawsuit-trying to trademark "Ohio").

They can call themselves anything they want as long as they aren't copying anyone.

Thank you Bullet, also if you want to look at names changes and not being flagships, the University of Southwestern Louisiana changed its name officially to the University of Louisiana in the spring of 1984 for 34 days I want to say but LSU A&M college of Baton Rouge (since you are a official name thumper) got scared because it would hurt their “flagship” and brought it to the Louisiana Supreme Court where a LSU graduate was the judge and forced them to change it back. Which in turned caused multiple to break away and created a new system.
01-28-2020 12:48 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #92
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

In every one of those states except Ohio, adding the teams you suggest would drop the state well below average in terms of saturation.

Also, the presence of major pro sports teams is probably the most important factor when questioning whether a state or region would support another P college football team with median or above P-level donations.

How about a chart of (state population) divided by (number of P5 programs + NFL + NBA+ MLB + NHL teams in the state or within 50 miles of the state). Then, for example, instead of dividing New York's population by 1 and getting 19.5 million people per team, we're dividing it by 11 and getting 1.8 million people per team.
01-28-2020 03:31 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #93
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 03:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

In every one of those states except Ohio, adding the teams you suggest would drop the state well below average in terms of saturation.

Also, the presence of major pro sports teams is probably the most important factor when questioning whether a state or region would support another P college football team with median or above P-level donations.

How about a chart of (state population) divided by (number of P5 programs + NFL + NBA+ MLB + NHL teams in the state or within 50 miles of the state). Then, for example, instead of dividing New York's population by 1 and getting 19.5 million people per team, we're dividing it by 11 and getting 1.8 million people per team.

True! The first thought that hit my mind while perusing that list was not where teams need to be added, but where consolidation to reduce the number of teams would be beneficial. There are a few states that could handle another school by those numbers, but those also tend to be professional sports sites.
01-28-2020 03:54 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #94
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

Personally, I think you are selling North Texas short by not including them in the Texas group with Houston, SMU, and Rice. Despite our poor football performance this past season, our overall athletics are headed in the right direction. UNT is investing in facilities and growing at a faster pace than the majority of FBS G5 programs.
01-28-2020 08:32 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #95
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 03:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  In every one of those states except Ohio, adding the teams you suggest would drop the state well below average in terms of saturation.

Also, the presence of major pro sports teams is probably the most important factor when questioning whether a state or region would support another P college football team with median or above P-level donations.

And in Ohio, the Pro Sport teams presence factors in, in a major way ... because of the population dynamics, where at one time Columbus was the largest of the medium sized cities in a state with two big cities, Cleveland and Cincinnati are well stocked with pro sports teams, NFL and MLB in both, NBA in Cleveland ... and further surrounded in the closest big cities to the east and west with additional NFL/MLB/NBA teams (of more or less stability) in Pittsburgh, Detroit and Indianapolis.

Columbus being squeezed out of having an NFL team is part of how Central Ohio became such strong Buckeye territory. In the Licking County HS football conference in the 1970s, 9 out of 10 schools had the Ohio State fight song as their fight song (AFAIU, the 10th, Newark Catholic, had Notre Dame's fight song).

This looks like its not just in FB ... the Cavs being in Cleveland but no Cincinnati NBA franchise may be part of the story how UC, Dayton and Xavier are stronger brands in college basketball than any equivalent "state university in Ohio" in college FB ... Akron and Kent State operate in the pro-first, college-second Greater Cleveland media market.
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2020 03:39 AM by BruceMcF.)
01-29-2020 03:36 AM
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Post: #96
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
I'll go with my definite first:

UCF- brand is there, market is there.
Cincinnati- not quite as strong appeal as UCF in football, but makes up for it in basketball.
BYU- strong brand and market, but some compromises might need to be made. (Sunday play, academic freedom issues)
Boise- slightly smaller market penetration, but definitely a strong brand.
San Diego State- the market is there, brand is somewhat strong.


The maybe's

USF- the brand is there, although there is more competition for the market. Could use a really good coaching hire.
Houston- strong brand, but heavy competition for market. The Texans, Longhorns, and the Aggies don't make things easy.
East Carolina- another strong brand, but recent coaching hires, and new emergence of UNC, NC State, and Duke make me wonder.
Memphis- brand is a definite in hoops, but football could still use a little help. However, market is there, even battling it out with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Alabama.
Colorado State- kind of a weak brand right now, and small statewide market doesn't do too many favours. Still, if they got their act together...
Fresno State- regaining it's brand. However, market is a bit of a question mark.
UConn- basketball has few peers, but football needs a lot of help. Is the market even there??
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2020 09:43 AM by DawgNBama.)
01-29-2020 08:58 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #97
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
I think, for football-only, AFA and Navy could be there. When Navy finally started considering the move, the Big East had some of the schools that are now in the ACC and Big XII. AFA was approached by the Big XII as a backfill for the likes of Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, and TAMU, but declined. They threw their hat in the ring a few years ago, allegedly, but we know how that worked out.

I would consider both as potential movers in a post-Big XII world where they may be a best-of remnants conference.

BYU is there...but nobody wants to work with them.

Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF would follow a bit behind. For some reason, I could see Houston as an ACC school. Don't ask me how...but I think they could hang.
01-29-2020 09:41 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #98
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 12:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 12:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:32 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 11:23 AM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  That’s a good thing, because there no longer is a recognized university as La Laf athletically anymore.

03-lmfao

What, did the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (a Real Thing, btw) lose its athletic program?

Officially became “Louisiana” about 4 years ago athletics wise, just like University of North Carolina Chapel Hill is the academic name of the university but “North Carolina” is the athletic name.

No, very different. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is called "North Carolina" by everyone because it is the flagship university of the state of North Carolina and its university system. It is also the most prestigious public university in the state, so is the university that more than other is the "face" of the state nationally. The same applies to the University of Texas at Austin, Cal-Berkeley, etc.

In contrast, Louisiana-Lafayette is not the flagship of anything, is not the most prestigious state university, or anything like that. It is not the academic "face" of the state to the nation, etc. So calling it "Louisiana" creates the mistaken impression that it is those things. And we don't like to traffic in false impressions, eh?

UL-Lafayette is a fine school with a fine athletic program. But it is what it is - Louisiana Lafayette.

Are you going to say all the Southwest schools have to go back to their old names--Missouri State-Southwest Missouri State, Texas State-Southwest Texas State, ULL-University of Southwestern Louisiana??? Should Indiana State and Illinois State go back to State Teacher's College? Should Ohio University, the oldest university in Ohio, have to change its name because Ohio State is now the flagship? (Ohio State lost that lawsuit-trying to trademark "Ohio").

They can call themselves anything they want as long as they aren't copying anyone.

They can call themselves anything they want as long as they aren't copying anyone.

Agree.

If Louisiana Lafayette wants "Louisiana" for athletic branding, I'm fine with. UAB wants "UAB" instead of Alabama-Birmingham. I'm fine with that (though Birmingham Blazers offers a strong ring).
01-29-2020 09:50 AM
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Post: #99
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 03:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 03:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

In every one of those states except Ohio, adding the teams you suggest would drop the state well below average in terms of saturation.

Also, the presence of major pro sports teams is probably the most important factor when questioning whether a state or region would support another P college football team with median or above P-level donations.

How about a chart of (state population) divided by (number of P5 programs + NFL + NBA+ MLB + NHL teams in the state or within 50 miles of the state). Then, for example, instead of dividing New York's population by 1 and getting 19.5 million people per team, we're dividing it by 11 and getting 1.8 million people per team.

True! The first thought that hit my mind while perusing that list was not where teams need to be added, but where consolidation to reduce the number of teams would be beneficial. There are a few states that could handle another school by those numbers, but those also tend to be professional sports sites.

Some states need to be looked at as a combined entity. Best example I can give of this would be New York & New Jersey. NYC is located in both states, for all practical intents and purposes. I would do the same with Missouri and Kansas because they both share KC. You could make the argument for Tennessee and Mississippi too, because they share Memphis. You could probably throw Arkansas in here too.
The same could be done for Texas and New Mexico, since they both share the El Paso metro.
I'm trying to think of other places where that is the case.

Just thought of another one: Massachusetts and Rhode Island, because of Boston-Providence.
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2020 10:06 AM by DawgNBama.)
01-29-2020 10:03 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #100
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-29-2020 10:03 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 03:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2020 03:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

In every one of those states except Ohio, adding the teams you suggest would drop the state well below average in terms of saturation.

Also, the presence of major pro sports teams is probably the most important factor when questioning whether a state or region would support another P college football team with median or above P-level donations.

How about a chart of (state population) divided by (number of P5 programs + NFL + NBA+ MLB + NHL teams in the state or within 50 miles of the state). Then, for example, instead of dividing New York's population by 1 and getting 19.5 million people per team, we're dividing it by 11 and getting 1.8 million people per team.

True! The first thought that hit my mind while perusing that list was not where teams need to be added, but where consolidation to reduce the number of teams would be beneficial. There are a few states that could handle another school by those numbers, but those also tend to be professional sports sites.

Some states need to be looked at as a combined entity. Best example I can give of this would be New York & New Jersey. NYC is located in both states, for all practical intents and purposes. I would do the same with Missouri and Kansas because they both share KC. You could make the argument for Tennessee and Mississippi too, because they share Memphis. You could probably throw Arkansas in here too.
The same could be done for Texas and New Mexico, since they both share the El Paso metro.
I'm trying to think of other places where that is the case.

Just thought of another one: Massachusetts and Rhode Island, because of Boston-Providence.

The Cincinnati Metro is within the states of Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana.
01-29-2020 10:36 AM
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