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10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #61
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.
Would that be the first time that a conference has rolled uphill as a result of conference realignment happening above it?

Seems more likely that based on some accident of timing, one of the last two at the time rescues itself by gutting the other one, which turns around to gut the AAC to make as good an outcome as they can. That would be sh!t rolling downhill, which is the more common outcome.
01-25-2020 07:16 AM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #62
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 02:25 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 01:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCSD have to add FBS football first before joining Pac 12.

Do they really? 07-coffee3

I would add UCSD and Rice as non-Football today. Rice could survive as a football Indy with 6 guaranteed PAC games per year. Get that foot in the Texas door.
(This post was last modified: 01-25-2020 07:24 AM by jrj84105.)
01-25-2020 07:23 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
This is just a family argument that will be settled. Boise is not going anywhere. If they do, I think it is more likely they go inde than AAC. The good thing is this gives fans something to dream about for a few weeks, until it gets settled.
01-25-2020 08:51 AM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 09:10 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If UCF keeps winning they're going to be harder and harder to ignore. In ten years they'll have 75-80k students in a top 5 media market and a desirable recruiting state.

Nobody is ignoring UCF. All who follow college football are aware of that team's accomplishments. But they will likely never be promoted to a Power conference. In the OP's imagined ten-year window, UCF could win national championships in years 7,8' and 9 and still not be promoted in year ten. Where would they go? SEC and ACC don't need them, being already well established in Florida. And ESPN already "owns" UCF at a bargain price. The Big 12 may still exist in ten years, but they will no longer be a Power conference. The B1G and Fox would love to be in Florida and the Southeast, but even if they waived the "cosmetic" shortcomings of UCF, they would have to sell ads in competition with the ESPN properties in Florida. Probably not a moneymaker.

Consensus here seems to be that any school added to a Power conference must earn their own annual payout plus gravy for the incumbent members. Media companies, to date, have valued UCF at about 1/10th as much as their neighbors in the SEC. That doesn't make them a bad program or a bad school. They are simply boxed-in.
01-25-2020 03:23 PM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.


This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.

Well there are some issues to address. Right now the vast majority of blue chip recruits are in the Southeast and Southwest. Because of this the vast majority of championship teams in the last 20 years or so have come from the Southeast and the total number of playoff teams have been dominated by teams from the Southeast and Southwest..

This has led to too much overlap of audience within a 3 to 4 state area in the Southeast. That's not good if you are trying to maximize your national audience in an effort to maximize advertising revenue.

Right now the weakest numbers for gross total revenue, WSJ valuations of economic impact by schools upon their regions, and the poorest attendance and viewership is on the two coasts. So since the ACC is redundant with the SEC in markets where it's football contenders are concerned it means on any given year half of the CFP comes essentially from a 3 state area, it makes sense that if redistribution is to take place that the ACC is most logical one to use to rebalance 3 of the current P conferences.

So if Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse headed to the Big 10 and Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville headed to the SEC you have two solid conferences of 20 each with a definable and only slightly overlapping boundary.

If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., and Texas Tech head to the PAC you get another.

Baylor, West Virginia, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest join Brigham Young, Army, Air Force, and Boise State in the 11 member AAC (goodbye UConn) and there's your 4th 20 member P conference.

Each of the 4 conferences divides into 4 five team divisions and the conferences have semi finals and the champions of the 4 go to the CFP.

No committees, polls, with everything settled on the field. Schools not in the CFP all remain eligible for bowls.

The AAC payouts would have to be elevated to accommodate those coming in from the ACC and Big 12 but if elevated to playing an all P4 schedule the extra content value is there, especially since the conference encompasses the Commander in Chief's competition, brings in Boise and B.Y.U., and incorporates more branding and draws in a much wider market to reach.

Add a West Coast basketball only conference to the Big East for hoops and you have a breakaway group that can monetize its basketball independent of the NCAA which means a lot more money for hoops.

Eighty schools helps to keep the win / loss bell curve more closely akin to what fans expect and everyone profits more than what they get now and in the case of the AAC perhaps a lot more.

Now you have a CFP that is guaranteed to have 3 champions from different regions of the country, and a 4th that could represent a different region, but provides more of an underdog appeal each year, which does attract a different kind of casual viewer. ESPN, or whoever holds the rights to the CFP, has the annual guaranteed breadth of audience reach they desire and need for stronger ad revenues, every game matters all season long since the championships are decided on the field, and from the conference semis through the CFP finals it becomes an annual viewing event.

The bowls provide the backdrop build up for the championship drama.

12 of the ACC schools are elevated in pay to Big 10 and SEC levels. Texas and Oklahoma keep the gang together and join with the PAC group and they all get paid a bit better. And even the those headed to the AAC get paid at a slightly increased level for the 5 leaving current P conferences and the AAC is elevated to those levels.

Make it a win win with nobody in the club now being left out and it becomes workable, especially since ESPN holds all of the rights to the SEC and ACC and AAC and roughly half of the rights to the Big 10 and PAC. Play 9 in conference games and rotate through your conference every 3 years and you still have 3 OOC games to play old rivals if separated.

It's about as good as it could get. I'm guessing the lowest payout would be in the 35 million range for football and everything but basketball and without the NCAA basketball could pull down between 15 to 25 million more per school depending upon the conference.

So Visualize This:

Big 10:

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin


SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M


PAC:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford


AAC:

Air Force, Army, Boise State, Navy, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane
Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa


Now take a look at those divisions and who the likely winners might be. There's your added value in the conference Semis. For instance in the Big 10 Notre Dame / Ohio State or Penn State / Michigan / Iowa or Wisconsin could emerge on any given year into their semis. Those are major dollar games. In the SEC it's set up the same way. It's the same in the PAC guaranteeing the likely emergence of a California school in most years. In the AAC a service academy or Boise / Cincy or Temple or WVU / Memphis or UCF / B.Y.U. or Baylor or Houston. Also solid content games and each from quite a different region of viewers. This is how you monetize these games. The 4 champs will have the eyeballs for the national championship but the others can have some interesting match ups in the bowls.

It's purely a business move but if all profit it could work.

This post looks to me like nothing but message board fuel. Might just be a mod trying to appeal to everybody's favorite vice: realignment forecasting. I am such a realignment junkie that I have to play along.

Oklahoma and Texas will change conferences. Perhaps other Big 12 schools will too. The remaining Big 12 will slowly slide into G6 irrelevance. The number of Power programs will fall to fewer than sixty. The number will continue to diminish over time, possibly due to "name and likeness" issues and eventually because the ACC will be starved into despair and internal fighting. Longshot prediction: Administrators among PAC 12 institutions will reassess the "appropriate place" of athletics in an academic setting. Many of the schools will adopt a Div III model (good enough for the Ivy League, after all). The others will be forced to scramble for a seat at the Power table or join a Gx conference.
01-25-2020 03:50 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-25-2020 03:23 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 09:10 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If UCF keeps winning they're going to be harder and harder to ignore. In ten years they'll have 75-80k students in a top 5 media market and a desirable recruiting state.

Nobody is ignoring UCF. All who follow college football are aware of that team's accomplishments. But they will likely never be promoted to a Power conference. In the OP's imagined ten-year window, UCF could win national championships in years 7,8' and 9 and still not be promoted in year ten. Where would they go? SEC and ACC don't need them, being already well established in Florida. And ESPN already "owns" UCF at a bargain price. The Big 12 may still exist in ten years, but they will no longer be a Power conference. The B1G and Fox would love to be in Florida and the Southeast, but even if they waived the "cosmetic" shortcomings of UCF, they would have to sell ads in competition with the ESPN properties in Florida. Probably not a moneymaker.

Consensus here seems to be that any school added to a Power conference must earn their own annual payout plus gravy for the incumbent members. Media companies, to date, have valued UCF at about 1/10th as much as their neighbors in the SEC. That doesn't make them a bad program or a bad school. They are simply boxed-in.

That’s accurate today. It’s really tough to predict the future. The SEC and ACC may look completely different in 10 years.

Perhaps the ACC gets raided for Florida St, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Maybe Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson as well. Backfilling with West Virginia, Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, and/or East Carolina could occur.
01-25-2020 03:54 PM
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
I think the real question is 15 years from now. ACC and SEC GORs expire mid 30s and I don't think we'll see the full impact of the change in the media model in the next 5 years (when Big 10, Pac 12 and Big 12 contracts come up). We'll probably see all the contracts coming up mid 30s facing a new media model.
01-25-2020 06:14 PM
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B easy Offline
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Post: #68
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
The entire AAC & ECU is surfing on coattails, just coming along for the ride!

[Image: giphy.gif]
(This post was last modified: 01-25-2020 07:05 PM by B easy.)
01-25-2020 07:04 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-25-2020 03:23 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 09:10 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If UCF keeps winning they're going to be harder and harder to ignore. In ten years they'll have 75-80k students in a top 5 media market and a desirable recruiting state.

Nobody is ignoring UCF. All who follow college football are aware of that team's accomplishments. But they will likely never be promoted to a Power conference. In the OP's imagined ten-year window, UCF could win national championships in years 7,8' and 9 and still not be promoted in year ten. Where would they go? SEC and ACC don't need them, being already well established in Florida. And ESPN already "owns" UCF at a bargain price. The Big 12 may still exist in ten years, but they will no longer be a Power conference. The B1G and Fox would love to be in Florida and the Southeast, but even if they waived the "cosmetic" shortcomings of UCF, they would have to sell ads in competition with the ESPN properties in Florida. Probably not a moneymaker.

Consensus here seems to be that any school added to a Power conference must earn their own annual payout plus gravy for the incumbent members. the Media companies, to date, have valued UCF at about 1/10th as much as their neighbors in [/[b]b]SEC. That doesn't make them a bad program or a bad school. They are simply boxed-in.

How about to the ACC?
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2020 11:20 PM by sierrajip.)
01-26-2020 11:19 PM
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100
CA 9,878,056
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176
CO 5,758,736
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587
UT 3,205,958
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2020 11:38 PM by bullet.)
01-26-2020 11:36 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.
01-27-2020 12:38 AM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100
CA 9,878,056
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176
CO 5,758,736
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587
UT 3,205,958
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

One nit. The population of Pennsylvania is 12.82 million.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/...opulation/
01-27-2020 08:22 AM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

How are the schools in red going to pay for themselves plus boost the pay of others?

Which conferences will take the hit on their bottom line to add them?

Will the SEC and Big Ten take a haircut? Will anyone else?
(This post was last modified: 01-27-2020 08:24 AM by TerryD.)
01-27-2020 08:24 AM
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Post: #74
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.


This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.

Well there are some issues to address. Right now the vast majority of blue chip recruits are in the Southeast and Southwest. Because of this the vast majority of championship teams in the last 20 years or so have come from the Southeast and the total number of playoff teams have been dominated by teams from the Southeast and Southwest..

This has led to too much overlap of audience within a 3 to 4 state area in the Southeast. That's not good if you are trying to maximize your national audience in an effort to maximize advertising revenue.

Right now the weakest numbers for gross total revenue, WSJ valuations of economic impact by schools upon their regions, and the poorest attendance and viewership is on the two coasts. So since the ACC is redundant with the SEC in markets where it's football contenders are concerned it means on any given year half of the CFP comes essentially from a 3 state area, it makes sense that if redistribution is to take place that the ACC is most logical one to use to rebalance 3 of the current P conferences.

So if Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse headed to the Big 10 and Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville headed to the SEC you have two solid conferences of 20 each with a definable and only slightly overlapping boundary.

If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., and Texas Tech head to the PAC you get another.

Baylor, West Virginia, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest join Brigham Young, Army, Air Force, and Boise State in the 11 member AAC (goodbye UConn) and there's your 4th 20 member P conference.

Each of the 4 conferences divides into 4 five team divisions and the conferences have semi finals and the champions of the 4 go to the CFP.

No committees, polls, with everything settled on the field. Schools not in the CFP all remain eligible for bowls.

The AAC payouts would have to be elevated to accommodate those coming in from the ACC and Big 12 but if elevated to playing an all P4 schedule the extra content value is there, especially since the conference encompasses the Commander in Chief's competition, brings in Boise and B.Y.U., and incorporates more branding and draws in a much wider market to reach.

Add a West Coast basketball only conference to the Big East for hoops and you have a breakaway group that can monetize its basketball independent of the NCAA which means a lot more money for hoops.

Eighty schools helps to keep the win / loss bell curve more closely akin to what fans expect and everyone profits more than what they get now and in the case of the AAC perhaps a lot more.

Now you have a CFP that is guaranteed to have 3 champions from different regions of the country, and a 4th that could represent a different region, but provides more of an underdog appeal each year, which does attract a different kind of casual viewer. ESPN, or whoever holds the rights to the CFP, has the annual guaranteed breadth of audience reach they desire and need for stronger ad revenues, every game matters all season long since the championships are decided on the field, and from the conference semis through the CFP finals it becomes an annual viewing event.

The bowls provide the backdrop build up for the championship drama.

12 of the ACC schools are elevated in pay to Big 10 and SEC levels. Texas and Oklahoma keep the gang together and join with the PAC group and they all get paid a bit better. And even the those headed to the AAC get paid at a slightly increased level for the 5 leaving current P conferences and the AAC is elevated to those levels.

Make it a win win with nobody in the club now being left out and it becomes workable, especially since ESPN holds all of the rights to the SEC and ACC and AAC and roughly half of the rights to the Big 10 and PAC. Play 9 in conference games and rotate through your conference every 3 years and you still have 3 OOC games to play old rivals if separated.

It's about as good as it could get. I'm guessing the lowest payout would be in the 35 million range for football and everything but basketball and without the NCAA basketball could pull down between 15 to 25 million more per school depending upon the conference.

So Visualize This:

Big 10:

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin


SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M


PAC:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford


AAC:

Air Force, Army, Boise State, Navy, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane
Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa


Now take a look at those divisions and who the likely winners might be. There's your added value in the conference Semis. For instance in the Big 10 Notre Dame / Ohio State or Penn State / Michigan / Iowa or Wisconsin could emerge on any given year into their semis. Those are major dollar games. In the SEC it's set up the same way. It's the same in the PAC guaranteeing the likely emergence of a California school in most years. In the AAC a service academy or Boise / Cincy or Temple or WVU / Memphis or UCF / B.Y.U. or Baylor or Houston. Also solid content games and each from quite a different region of viewers. This is how you monetize these games. The 4 champs will have the eyeballs for the national championship but the others can have some interesting match ups in the bowls.

It's purely a business move but if all profit it could work.

Those divisions seem reasonable.
By the time this takes place, however, you will probably be looking at Appalachian State to fill out the AAC instead of Tulsa.
01-27-2020 08:57 AM
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Post: #75
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

Buffalo, UMass and Northern Illinois are "above the line." Of course all 3 have a very close to zero% chance of joining a power conference at this point in time. They have a tiny chance of even get invited to the AAC. However, if one of the 3 were to go on a Boise or TCU like run over the next 15 years, then maybe.
01-27-2020 11:07 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 11:07 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.

Buffalo, UMass and Northern Illinois are "above the line." Of course all 3 have a very close to zero% chance of joining a power conference at this point in time. They have a tiny chance of even get invited to the AAC. However, if one of the 3 were to go on a Boise or TCU like run over the next 15 years, then maybe.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Buffalo. An AAU school in a regionally major city in upstate NY. If only the “New York State” branding stuck...
01-27-2020 11:27 AM
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Post: #77
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 08:22 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100
CA 9,878,056
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176
CO 5,758,736
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587
UT 3,205,958
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

One nit. The population of Pennsylvania is 12.82 million.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/...opulation/

12,801,989 per the latest census estimates.
01-27-2020 11:35 AM
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Post: #78
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-26-2020 11:19 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  
(01-25-2020 03:23 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 09:10 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If UCF keeps winning they're going to be harder and harder to ignore. In ten years they'll have 75-80k students in a top 5 media market and a desirable recruiting state.

Nobody is ignoring UCF. All who follow college football are aware of that team's accomplishments. But they will likely never be promoted to a Power conference. In the OP's imagined ten-year window, UCF could win national championships in years 7,8' and 9 and still not be promoted in year ten. Where would they go? SEC and ACC don't need them, being already well established in Florida. And ESPN already "owns" UCF at a bargain price. The Big 12 may still exist in ten years, but they will no longer be a Power conference. The B1G and Fox would love to be in Florida and the Southeast, but even if they waived the "cosmetic" shortcomings of UCF, they would have to sell ads in competition with the ESPN properties in Florida. Probably not a moneymaker.

Consensus here seems to be that any school added to a Power conference must earn their own annual payout plus gravy for the incumbent members. the Media companies, to date, have valued UCF at about 1/10th as much as their neighbors in [/[b]b]SEC. That doesn't make them a bad program or a bad school. They are simply boxed-in.

How about to the ACC?

I guess that's within the realm of possibility, but I can't imagine any circumstances that would cause it to happen. Can you make a case for them?
01-27-2020 01:26 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #79
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-27-2020 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-27-2020 08:22 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).

NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100
CA 9,878,056
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176
CO 5,758,736
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712

Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587
UT 3,205,958
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657

The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.

One nit. The population of Pennsylvania is 12.82 million.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/...opulation/

12,801,989 per the latest census estimates.

Precisely. I rounded up.
01-27-2020 01:31 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #80
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Did you forget about Pitt
01-27-2020 11:38 PM
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