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10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #41
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 01:12 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.

You're not wrong. This is my vote. UCSD/Hawaii.

North: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, Utah
South: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St, USC, UCLA, UCSD, Hawaii
01-24-2020 01:21 PM
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Post: #42
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 01:21 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 01:12 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.

You're not wrong. This is my vote. UCSD/Hawaii.

North: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, Utah
South: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St, USC, UCLA, UCSD, Hawaii

I like it.
01-24-2020 01:52 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #43
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
UCSD have to add FBS football first before joining Pac 12.
01-24-2020 01:59 PM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 01:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCSD have to add FBS football first before joining Pac 12.

Do they really? 07-coffee3
01-24-2020 02:25 PM
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Post: #45
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 01:21 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 01:12 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.

You're not wrong. This is my vote. UCSD/Hawaii.

North: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, Utah
South: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St, USC, UCLA, UCSD, Hawaii

Swap Utah and Hawaii. Don't want to break up the mountain schools and Hawaii is closer to the current north schools than the south schools.
01-24-2020 02:38 PM
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Post: #46
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 01:12 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.

Maybe you should drop the "S"-UC-D not UC-SD
UC Davis does play football.

But of course, they've got no fan support.
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2020 03:46 PM by bullet.)
01-24-2020 03:45 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #47
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.
01-24-2020 03:56 PM
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Post: #48
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 03:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 01:12 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.

Maybe you should drop the "S"-UC-D not UC-SD
UC Davis does play football.

But of course, they've got no fan support.

C'mon, UC Davis averages 8500 in attendance -- that's more than 10 times the DavidSt threshold for schools that should move up to FBS football. 07-coffee3
01-24-2020 05:33 PM
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Post: #49
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.


This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.
01-24-2020 08:04 PM
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Post: #50
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.


This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.

Well there are some issues to address. Right now the vast majority of blue chip recruits are in the Southeast and Southwest. Because of this the vast majority of championship teams in the last 20 years or so have come from the Southeast and the total number of playoff teams have been dominated by teams from the Southeast and Southwest..

This has led to too much overlap of audience within a 3 to 4 state area in the Southeast. That's not good if you are trying to maximize your national audience in an effort to maximize advertising revenue.

Right now the weakest numbers for gross total revenue, WSJ valuations of economic impact by schools upon their regions, and the poorest attendance and viewership is on the two coasts. So since the ACC is redundant with the SEC in markets where it's football contenders are concerned it means on any given year half of the CFP comes essentially from a 3 state area, it makes sense that if redistribution is to take place that the ACC is most logical one to use to rebalance 3 of the current P conferences.

So if Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse headed to the Big 10 and Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville headed to the SEC you have two solid conferences of 20 each with a definable and only slightly overlapping boundary.

If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., and Texas Tech head to the PAC you get another.

Baylor, West Virginia, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest join Brigham Young, Army, Air Force, and Boise State in the 11 member AAC (goodbye UConn) and there's your 4th 20 member P conference.

Each of the 4 conferences divides into 4 five team divisions and the conferences have semi finals and the champions of the 4 go to the CFP.

No committees, polls, with everything settled on the field. Schools not in the CFP all remain eligible for bowls.

The AAC payouts would have to be elevated to accommodate those coming in from the ACC and Big 12 but if elevated to playing an all P4 schedule the extra content value is there, especially since the conference encompasses the Commander in Chief's competition, brings in Boise and B.Y.U., and incorporates more branding and draws in a much wider market to reach.

Add a West Coast basketball only conference to the Big East for hoops and you have a breakaway group that can monetize its basketball independent of the NCAA which means a lot more money for hoops.

Eighty schools helps to keep the win / loss bell curve more closely akin to what fans expect and everyone profits more than what they get now and in the case of the AAC perhaps a lot more.

Now you have a CFP that is guaranteed to have 3 champions from different regions of the country, and a 4th that could represent a different region, but provides more of an underdog appeal each year, which does attract a different kind of casual viewer. ESPN, or whoever holds the rights to the CFP, has the annual guaranteed breadth of audience reach they desire and need for stronger ad revenues, every game matters all season long since the championships are decided on the field, and from the conference semis through the CFP finals it becomes an annual viewing event.

The bowls provide the backdrop build up for the championship drama.

12 of the ACC schools are elevated in pay to Big 10 and SEC levels. Texas and Oklahoma keep the gang together and join with the PAC group and they all get paid a bit better. And even the those headed to the AAC get paid at a slightly increased level for the 5 leaving current P conferences and the AAC is elevated to those levels.

Make it a win win with nobody in the club now being left out and it becomes workable, especially since ESPN holds all of the rights to the SEC and ACC and AAC and roughly half of the rights to the Big 10 and PAC. Play 9 in conference games and rotate through your conference every 3 years and you still have 3 OOC games to play old rivals if separated.

It's about as good as it could get. I'm guessing the lowest payout would be in the 35 million range for football and everything but basketball and without the NCAA basketball could pull down between 15 to 25 million more per school depending upon the conference.

So Visualize This:

Big 10:

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin


SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M


PAC:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford


AAC:

Air Force, Army, Boise State, Navy, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane
Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa


Now take a look at those divisions and who the likely winners might be. There's your added value in the conference Semis. For instance in the Big 10 Notre Dame / Ohio State or Penn State / Michigan / Iowa or Wisconsin could emerge on any given year into their semis. Those are major dollar games. In the SEC it's set up the same way. It's the same in the PAC guaranteeing the likely emergence of a California school in most years. In the AAC a service academy or Boise / Cincy or Temple or WVU / Memphis or UCF / B.Y.U. or Baylor or Houston. Also solid content games and each from quite a different region of viewers. This is how you monetize these games. The 4 champs will have the eyeballs for the national championship but the others can have some interesting match ups in the bowls.

It's purely a business move but if all profit it could work.
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2020 09:18 PM by JRsec.)
01-24-2020 08:38 PM
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Post: #51
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
What I think most are not realizing, Name and Likeness will have a major impact. That may finally cause the P5 to bolt from the NCAA. Seems like perfect time to create a P5 division and keep the money to themselves.
01-24-2020 09:11 PM
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Post: #52
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 09:10 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If UCF keeps winning they're going to be harder and harder to ignore. In ten years they'll have 75-80k students in a top 5 media market and a desirable recruiting state.

Top 15 market.
01-24-2020 09:17 PM
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Post: #53
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.


This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.

Well there are some issues to address. Right now the vast majority of blue chip recruits are in the Southeast and Southwest. Because of this the vast majority of championship teams in the last 20 years or so have come from the Southeast and the total number of playoff teams have been dominated by teams from the Southeast and Southwest..

This has led to too much overlap of audience within a 3 to 4 state area in the Southeast. That's not good if you are trying to maximize your national audience in an effort to maximize advertising revenue.

Right now the weakest numbers for gross total revenue, WSJ valuations of economic impact by schools upon their regions, and the poorest attendance and viewership is on the two coasts. So since the ACC is redundant with the SEC in markets where it's football contenders are concerned it means on any given year half of the CFP comes essentially from a 3 state area, it makes sense that if redistribution is to take place that the ACC is most logical one to use to rebalance 3 of the current P conferences.

So if Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse headed to the Big 10 and Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville headed to the SEC you have two solid conferences of 20 each with a definable and only slightly overlapping boundary.

If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., and Texas Tech head to the PAC you get another.

Baylor, West Virginia, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest join Brigham Young, Army, Air Force, and Boise State in the 11 member AAC (goodbye UConn) and there's your 4th 20 member P conference.

Each of the 4 conferences divides into 4 five team divisions and the conferences have semi finals and the champions of the 4 go to the CFP.

No committees, polls, with everything settled on the field. Schools not in the CFP all remain eligible for bowls.

The AAC payouts would have to be elevated to accommodate those coming in from the ACC and Big 12 but if elevated to playing an all P4 schedule the extra content value is there, especially since the conference encompasses the Commander in Chief's competition, brings in Boise and B.Y.U., and incorporates more branding and draws in a much wider market to reach.

Add a West Coast basketball only conference to the Big East for hoops and you have a breakaway group that can monetize its basketball independent of the NCAA which means a lot more money for hoops.

Eighty schools helps to keep the win / loss bell curve more closely akin to what fans expect and everyone profits more than what they get now and in the case of the AAC perhaps a lot more.

Now you have a CFP that is guaranteed to have 3 champions from different regions of the country, and a 4th that could represent a different region, but provides more of an underdog appeal each year, which does attract a different kind of casual viewer. ESPN, or whoever holds the rights to the CFP, has the annual guaranteed breadth of audience reach they desire and need for stronger ad revenues, every game matters all season long since the championships are decided on the field, and from the conference semis through the CFP finals it becomes an annual viewing event.

The bowls provide the backdrop build up for the championship drama.

12 of the ACC schools are elevated in pay to Big 10 and SEC levels. Texas and Oklahoma keep the gang together and join with the PAC group and they all get paid a bit better. And even the those headed to the AAC get paid at a slightly increased level for the 5 leaving current P conferences and the AAC is elevated to those levels.

Make it a win win with nobody in the club now being left out and it becomes workable, especially since ESPN holds all of the rights to the SEC and ACC and AAC and roughly half of the rights to the Big 10 and PAC. Play 9 in conference games and rotate through your conference every 3 years and you still have 3 OOC games to play old rivals if separated.

It's about as good as it could get. I'm guessing the lowest payout would be in the 35 million range for football and everything but basketball and without the NCAA basketball could pull down between 15 to 25 million more per school depending upon the conference.

So Visualize This:

Big 10:

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin


SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M


PAC:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford


AAC:

Air Force, Army, Boise State, Navy, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane
Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa

This leaves out too many MWC flagship programs - Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico all are more valuable than say Tulsa or Tulane, who add nothing. Even ECU and Temple would be down the pecking order.
01-24-2020 09:18 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #54
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 09:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.


This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.

Well there are some issues to address. Right now the vast majority of blue chip recruits are in the Southeast and Southwest. Because of this the vast majority of championship teams in the last 20 years or so have come from the Southeast and the total number of playoff teams have been dominated by teams from the Southeast and Southwest..

This has led to too much overlap of audience within a 3 to 4 state area in the Southeast. That's not good if you are trying to maximize your national audience in an effort to maximize advertising revenue.

Right now the weakest numbers for gross total revenue, WSJ valuations of economic impact by schools upon their regions, and the poorest attendance and viewership is on the two coasts. So since the ACC is redundant with the SEC in markets where it's football contenders are concerned it means on any given year half of the CFP comes essentially from a 3 state area, it makes sense that if redistribution is to take place that the ACC is most logical one to use to rebalance 3 of the current P conferences.

So if Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse headed to the Big 10 and Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville headed to the SEC you have two solid conferences of 20 each with a definable and only slightly overlapping boundary.

If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., and Texas Tech head to the PAC you get another.

Baylor, West Virginia, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest join Brigham Young, Army, Air Force, and Boise State in the 11 member AAC (goodbye UConn) and there's your 4th 20 member P conference.

Each of the 4 conferences divides into 4 five team divisions and the conferences have semi finals and the champions of the 4 go to the CFP.

No committees, polls, with everything settled on the field. Schools not in the CFP all remain eligible for bowls.

The AAC payouts would have to be elevated to accommodate those coming in from the ACC and Big 12 but if elevated to playing an all P4 schedule the extra content value is there, especially since the conference encompasses the Commander in Chief's competition, brings in Boise and B.Y.U., and incorporates more branding and draws in a much wider market to reach.

Add a West Coast basketball only conference to the Big East for hoops and you have a breakaway group that can monetize its basketball independent of the NCAA which means a lot more money for hoops.

Eighty schools helps to keep the win / loss bell curve more closely akin to what fans expect and everyone profits more than what they get now and in the case of the AAC perhaps a lot more.

Now you have a CFP that is guaranteed to have 3 champions from different regions of the country, and a 4th that could represent a different region, but provides more of an underdog appeal each year, which does attract a different kind of casual viewer. ESPN, or whoever holds the rights to the CFP, has the annual guaranteed breadth of audience reach they desire and need for stronger ad revenues, every game matters all season long since the championships are decided on the field, and from the conference semis through the CFP finals it becomes an annual viewing event.

The bowls provide the backdrop build up for the championship drama.

12 of the ACC schools are elevated in pay to Big 10 and SEC levels. Texas and Oklahoma keep the gang together and join with the PAC group and they all get paid a bit better. And even the those headed to the AAC get paid at a slightly increased level for the 5 leaving current P conferences and the AAC is elevated to those levels.

Make it a win win with nobody in the club now being left out and it becomes workable, especially since ESPN holds all of the rights to the SEC and ACC and AAC and roughly half of the rights to the Big 10 and PAC. Play 9 in conference games and rotate through your conference every 3 years and you still have 3 OOC games to play old rivals if separated.

It's about as good as it could get. I'm guessing the lowest payout would be in the 35 million range for football and everything but basketball and without the NCAA basketball could pull down between 15 to 25 million more per school depending upon the conference.

So Visualize This:

Big 10:

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin


SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M


PAC:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford


AAC:

Air Force, Army, Boise State, Navy, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane
Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa

This leaves out too many MWC flagship programs - Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico all are more valuable than say Tulsa or Tulane, who add nothing. Even ECU and Temple would be down the pecking order.

Then the solution is to rebrand the conference and build a better 20. Give it a try. The existing contract would be easy to buy out for those schools. San Diego State is worthy too. But when you do this I challenge you to go to the top of the SEC board and look at the Gross Total revenue figures or WSJ valuations. You may be surprised. If these schools aren't listed the link is provided and Equity in Athletics will give you a chance to look up any school for the Gross Total Athletic Revenue. The NCAA has site for attendance. And the WSJ link is there. And remember it is a business move. How many eyeballs do they draw? The East Coast is far more engaged than the West Coast. And the Southwest and Southeast have a much higher % of actual viewers to possible viewers than any other conferences.
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2020 09:43 PM by JRsec.)
01-24-2020 09:35 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #55
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 09:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  What I think most are not realizing, Name and Likeness will have a major impact. That may finally cause the P5 to bolt from the NCAA. Seems like perfect time to create a P5 division and keep the money to themselves.


It effects all levels including D3 and NAIA.
01-24-2020 09:39 PM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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Post: #56
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 03:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

In 1982, no one would have guessed that the #2 team in the country (SMU) would have essentially gutted its program within four years.
01-24-2020 09:44 PM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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Post: #57
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 03:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

In 1982, no one would have guessed that the #2 team in the country (SMU) would have essentially gutted its program within four years.
01-24-2020 09:44 PM
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Post: #58
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
I think that there are only 6 spots left in the P5 as I think 14 is most likely the limit for P5 conferences.

I think the Big 12 adds UCF and USF to the South. Colorado St also added to the South.(Texas schools also in the south) Cincinnati added to the North. 9 football game schedule of 6 division games, 1 permanent cross division team( Texas-Oklahoma) and 2 rotating games.

PAC 12 adds 2 teams.
I personally like Hawaii for a spot as it gives the PAC 12 week zero games while the 13th game can help week zero gives them a chance to maybe get 2 early week zero conference games if teams want it. You could give teams a rest during conference games.(some SEC teams get byes or FCS teams during the conference slate)
The problem I have is #12. Maybe UNLV as it can fit with travel in the PAC 12 south?
01-24-2020 10:38 PM
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Post: #59
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 05:18 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 03:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:16 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.

Yes, but which schools will actually grow? We don't know.

In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

You don't pick a wife in the 8th grade - you wait to see who matures into the best fit. That's especially true when you're the only logical option (like the Big 12 is for Boise, CSU, Houston, and Memphis).
Nobody would have a D3 startup in 1979 playing in 3 NY6 bowls within 40 years either, but we did (UCF)

I could not have said it better. +2

I still root for FSU, except against the AAC, even USF (sorry to post).
01-25-2020 05:45 AM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 01:12 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.

It's so much easier to go from 0-60 as an athletic department than it is to change/upgrade any of the other factors that have kept G5 schools out of P5 conferences.

UCSD just moving into D1 is closer to a PAC invite than Boise, UNLV, BYU or Houston.
01-25-2020 07:10 AM
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