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10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

Agreed.

Nothing will be known until the new CFP deal and P5 TV deals are done in the 2023-25 years.
01-21-2020 05:37 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #22
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 05:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  People way overestimate the importance of media markets for G5 leagues and underestimate their importance for P5 leagues. Media markets are everything when your conference has their own TV network and acquiring a new member can get subscriptions for the network in that new member's metro area. I mean, the Big Ten didn't bring in Mryland and Rutgers to help out football and basketball.

IMO Boise, BYU, and probably Colorado State have no shot.

Houston's problem is that the Houston market almost surely already has the conference networks for the SEC and Big 12 so neither conference will invite them (maybe the ACC would?)

Similar issue with Orlando and Tampa with the ACC and SEC.

In fact, any non-P5 team that shares a State with a P5 team can probably forget about being in that P5 team's conference and can count on being a geographic outlier in any P5 league they're in.

That’s a fair statement.

The P5 also have ultimate poaching power, so they are much more particular about institutional fit, such as academics, culture, media markets, etc. There are way more off-the-field factors that are critical for a P5 invite. Being great on-the-field/court simply isn’t enough.

In contrast, the G5 are generally just looking for the best available competitive programs. Institutional fit doesn’t really matter that much and TV ratings and contracts are driven almost solely by on-field/court performance.

I often point this out, but the power ranks are unbelievably stable. When the BCS started in 1996, there were 63 schools across the then-6 power conferences plus ND. 24 years later today, there are 65 schools across the now-5 power conferences plus ND. After all that time, the net change was that Louisville, Utah and TCU got called up, while Temple got sent down. After all of the conference realignment over the years, there has only been a net change of 2 additional power schools ever since the BCS system started in the mid-1990s... and TCU had been a power conference team in the old SWC in the pre-BCS era!

That just goes to show you how much inertia that there is in the overall power system even if there has been a ton of conference realignment change within that power system over the past decade. The power ranks aren’t going to suddenly swell up by adding an entire 6th power conference. Instead, there might be a couple of power conference spots left... if there’s even that. The P5 would rather kill another conference than allow too much “riff-raff” into their ranks (see the last days of the old Big East football conference).
01-21-2020 07:26 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 03:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:16 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.

Yes, but which schools will actually grow? We don't know.

In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

You don't pick a wife in the 8th grade - you wait to see who matures into the best fit. That's especially true when you're the only logical option (like the Big 12 is for Boise, CSU, Houston, and Memphis).

Which of those candidates would you consider to be in the "eighth grade?" How do they ever mature if not allowed to progress? What does that progression look like? How long before they're written off as old maids?
01-21-2020 07:26 PM
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ccd494 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 03:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:46 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you look at their rankings in the polls, BYU and Boise are clearly the top outside the P5. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are the next tier. Everyone else is way behind.

Boise doesn't rank because they don't fit the academic profile of the P5, who are all research universities.


Boise is an R2 research universities. TCU, Wake Forest and a couple of others in the P5 are R2.

Wake Forest's research ranking reflects that it is an institution of 5,000 undergrads and 3,000 postgrads, with just under 700 academic staff. In a "research per capita" ranking, nothing about Wake would be tier 2. Wake is one of the top 30 universities in the nation. It's just small.

For comparison's sake, Boise is more than triple the size of Wake Forest in students, but has barely more faculty.

While the pure QUANTITY of research dollars pouring into Wake and Boise may be similar (although Wake probably comfortably leads), Wake's small size is indicative that it is a much higher QUALITY academic institution that generates much better research output than Boise State. And that has much more value.

And TCU is the 2nd smallest school in the P5 after Wake Forest. Wake Forest was one of the top schools in the AAU's own ranking of non-AAU schools. Were the AAU to decide it had to add 5 schools next year, Wake Forest would be one.

Right, essentially, a medium size number of major corporations and governmental entities go to Wake and TCU for research.

Whereas Boise State is bottom trolling with Bob's Gas and Gulp asking them to crunch the numbers on whether they should add a second bay of gas pumps.
01-21-2020 07:30 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #25
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 07:30 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 03:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:46 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  If you look at their rankings in the polls, BYU and Boise are clearly the top outside the P5. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are the next tier. Everyone else is way behind.

Boise doesn't rank because they don't fit the academic profile of the P5, who are all research universities.


Boise is an R2 research universities. TCU, Wake Forest and a couple of others in the P5 are R2.

Wake Forest's research ranking reflects that it is an institution of 5,000 undergrads and 3,000 postgrads, with just under 700 academic staff. In a "research per capita" ranking, nothing about Wake would be tier 2. Wake is one of the top 30 universities in the nation. It's just small.

For comparison's sake, Boise is more than triple the size of Wake Forest in students, but has barely more faculty.

While the pure QUANTITY of research dollars pouring into Wake and Boise may be similar (although Wake probably comfortably leads), Wake's small size is indicative that it is a much higher QUALITY academic institution that generates much better research output than Boise State. And that has much more value.

And TCU is the 2nd smallest school in the P5 after Wake Forest. Wake Forest was one of the top schools in the AAU's own ranking of non-AAU schools. Were the AAU to decide it had to add 5 schools next year, Wake Forest would be one.

Right, essentially, a medium size number of major corporations and governmental entities go to Wake and TCU for research.

Whereas Boise State is bottom trolling with Bob's Gas and Gulp asking them to crunch the numbers on whether they should add a second bay of gas pumps.

And proud of it
01-21-2020 08:15 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Interesting that the OP SAYS “ if the A5 stays together “, because Iam thinking that the A5 will fracture and fall completely apart when in 2023 player compensation starts
The networks will left paying big money to autonomous teams that can’t get any good recruits because big city schools like Houston will simply pay more money
The networks will be paying a lot less money to the autonomous conferences in the next contract rounds
01-21-2020 09:31 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #27
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 02:16 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.

But that is the reality of this situation. This is going to be the calculus in the non-message board, real world.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2020 09:38 AM by TerryD.)
01-22-2020 09:20 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #28
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
If your program doesn’t kick down doors like TCU and Utah in a non-power league, then why does it deserve a chance to prove itself within one? It already has the chance now!! Schedule tough games on the road, dominate your conference. It’s not a P5’s job to invite your school in hopes it performs better.
01-22-2020 09:37 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #29
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 07:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 05:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  People way overestimate the importance of media markets for G5 leagues and underestimate their importance for P5 leagues. Media markets are everything when your conference has their own TV network and acquiring a new member can get subscriptions for the network in that new member's metro area. I mean, the Big Ten didn't bring in Mryland and Rutgers to help out football and basketball.

IMO Boise, BYU, and probably Colorado State have no shot.

Houston's problem is that the Houston market almost surely already has the conference networks for the SEC and Big 12 so neither conference will invite them (maybe the ACC would?)

Similar issue with Orlando and Tampa with the ACC and SEC.

In fact, any non-P5 team that shares a State with a P5 team can probably forget about being in that P5 team's conference and can count on being a geographic outlier in any P5 league they're in.

That’s a fair statement.

The P5 also have ultimate poaching power, so they are much more particular about institutional fit, such as academics, culture, media markets, etc. There are way more off-the-field factors that are critical for a P5 invite. Being great on-the-field/court simply isn’t enough.

Actually, I think you disagree with "Eigen". The way I read him, he's saying media markets are basically the whole ballgame for P5 when adding new schools. You are saying there's a lot more that goes into it that that, and I agree with you.

Heck, even in the case of Maryland and Rutgers, they are state flagships with good academics and a strong institutional fit with B1G schools. There are a lot of schools in the DMV and NYC areas that had zero chance of getting B1G invitations.
01-22-2020 10:12 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #30
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 05:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  People way overestimate the importance of media markets for G5 leagues and underestimate their importance for P5 leagues. Media markets are everything when your conference has their own TV network and acquiring a new member can get subscriptions for the network in that new member's metro area. I mean, the Big Ten didn't bring in Mryland and Rutgers to help out football and basketball.

The B1G invited Rutgers and Maryland when Cable was King, and media markets were 'static' in the sense of being covered by cable companies with contracts in a given area.

But has streaming changed that? Seems like streaming is dissolving those static boundaries. Hasn't done so yet, but the big media companies clearly seem to think that streaming is a big deal.

Also, remember, many of the biggest names in college athletics are not located in huge media markets. But they attract big viewership and are worth huge amounts of media money due to their brand profile. Most SEC schools are in small markets but it is the most valuable conference along with the B1G, which also has a lot of big schools in small markets.

If a G5 can build its brand name up to the point where it attracts a lot of viewers regardless of its home-base market size, then it could be attractive to a P5 conference that feels the need to add someone. I do not think any P5 will 'voluntarily' expand with any G5 schools. They would possibly backfill if raided by other P5.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2020 10:24 AM by quo vadis.)
01-22-2020 10:20 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #31
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
I don't think the chance for any school is "zero." The chance is zero today but not necessarily zero down the road. It depends very much on the situation that arises. The B1G, SEC, and probably the PAC would not expand with non-power schools. The PAC did add Utah from the Mt West but that was a different situation and Utah was not the average non-power program. The XII and ACC might, depending on the networks requests, schools that leave (if any), and whether the conferences remain power conferences. If Texas and Oklahoma jump ship (alone or with partners like Kansas, Oklahoma St, or Texas Tech), the XII would likely not remain a power conference so any backfill would just be a laterally shift. If the ACC loses Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, or Virginia Tech (or whichever schools), the ACC would likely remain a power conference that might add non-power schools.

My guess is that the cream of the XII and ACC leave and the rest form some sort of merger that might consider 1 or 2 non-power programs. The school at the top of the list, in my opinion, would be Cincinnati.
01-22-2020 10:21 AM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #32
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Looking at population trends in 10 years

The states of Texas, Florida, Nevada, Utah and Idaho are growing faster than the national average. Ohio, and the midwest are growing slowly. The Northeast is growing slowly.

UCF, USF, BYU, Boise UNLV, UTSA should go up.
Cincy, Uconn, Temple should go down.

So in 10 years I predict

1. UCF
2. USF
3. BYU
4. UNLV
5. Houston
6. Boise ST
7. UConn
8. Cincy
9. Memphis
10.. Hawaii
11. SMU
12. UTSA
01-24-2020 08:21 AM
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Post: #33
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Just going by what I read on this board.

1) UMass- Always on the rise unlimited potential.
2) Georgia St- The Atlanta media market is gigantic.
3) North Texas- Everything in Texas is bigger and better.
01-24-2020 08:33 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #34
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-22-2020 10:21 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I don't think the chance for any school is "zero." The chance is zero today but not necessarily zero down the road. It depends very much on the situation that arises. The B1G, SEC, and probably the PAC would not expand with non-power schools. The PAC did add Utah from the Mt West but that was a different situation and Utah was not the average non-power program. The XII and ACC might, depending on the networks requests, schools that leave (if any), and whether the conferences remain power conferences. If Texas and Oklahoma jump ship (alone or with partners like Kansas, Oklahoma St, or Texas Tech), the XII would likely not remain a power conference so any backfill would just be a laterally shift. If the ACC loses Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, or Virginia Tech (or whichever schools), the ACC would likely remain a power conference that might add non-power schools.

My guess is that the cream of the XII and ACC leave and the rest form some sort of merger that might consider 1 or 2 non-power programs. The school at the top of the list, in my opinion, would be Cincinnati.

I would say the Pac 12 is more likely than the ACC to add a G5 program. They are at the bottom in revenue and are having problems with their Tier III distribution.

Now you would have to find a combination to increase revenue, so that is difficult at this point in time. But there are schools with "potential," UNLV, BYU, Houston, SMU and maybe even New Mexico. Each get the Pac someplace it isn't right now.
01-24-2020 08:56 AM
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Post: #35
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 08:33 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Just going by what I read on this board.

1) UMass- Always on the rise unlimited potential.
2) Georgia St- The Atlanta media market is gigantic.
3) North Texas- Everything in Texas is bigger and better.

You forgot the board's sacred cows-- Rice, Tulane and Buffalo.

Apparently people on this board think the state of Ohio, a school in the Midwest that is as crazed about football as they are in the South and Texas, is going to stop playing football.
01-24-2020 09:05 AM
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Post: #36
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
If UCF keeps winning they're going to be harder and harder to ignore. In ten years they'll have 75-80k students in a top 5 media market and a desirable recruiting state.
01-24-2020 09:10 AM
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Post: #37
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
Liberty
01-24-2020 09:10 AM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #38
RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-21-2020 04:48 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Big 12 Cincy, BYU, UCF, USF, Air Force
Pac 12 Houston
the rest none

I’m curious why people see the PAC-12 wanting to expand to TX, but never talk about the Big12 expanding to CA?
01-24-2020 09:22 AM
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-24-2020 08:33 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Just going by what I read on this board.

1) UMass- Always on the rise unlimited potential.
2) Georgia St- The Atlanta media market is gigantic.
3) North Texas- Everything in Texas is bigger and better.

Every conference will invite us to get to that sweet on campus food.
01-24-2020 10:34 AM
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jdgaucho Offline
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
UC San Diego. Academics, financial endowment, location all checks out. Pair them with Hawaii and you got your next two Pac schools.
01-24-2020 01:12 PM
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