Says guy with stadium by Mattel...

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How soon will one of Boise/BYU break?

Boise looks to be melting but I have to believe it's posturing. An AAC football schedule would make zero sense to their fan base.

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(01-20-2020 03:01 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  The question, of course, isn't just whether or not the Big-12 is going anywhere or doing anything to trigger another realignment.

The larger question is whether any of the P5 conferences will take action by 2025 that would result in the AAC losing some teams.

So - - do you all expect the AAC to be raided or left alone?

Another question: Will UConn be the final AAC team to switch
conferences? We've lost 3 so far (L'ville, RU, & UConn).

I believe the first three questions are interconnected as the Big 12-2 is the only conference in play, Unless the BIG or SEC is willing to take ACC teams (0 chance). I believe Texas is happy where it is with the LHN and losing Oklahoma won't change that until that contract is up. The Big 12-2 would probably take schools from both the AAC and MWC but would drop the conference value to the AAC level as far as money and prestige.

RU was picked up only for their large NE market and Louisville was a replacement for an ACC departure. The A5 is saturated with schools that are average, at best and since the AAC does not come with the advantage of a playoff chance as the OBE had, the perception of another mouth to feed, makes it very unlikely.

(01-20-2020 05:05 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 03:01 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  The question, of course, isn't just whether or not the Big-12 is going anywhere or doing anything to trigger another realignment.

The larger question is whether any of the P5 conferences will take action by 2025 that would result in the AAC losing some teams.

So - - do you all expect the AAC to be raided or left alone?

Another question: Will UConn be the final AAC team to switch
conferences? We've lost 3 so far (L'ville, RU, & UConn).

I believe the first three questions are interconnected as the Big 12-2 is the only conference in play, Unless the BIG or SEC is willing to take ACC teams (0 chance). I believe Texas is happy where it is with the LHN and losing Oklahoma won't change that until that contract is up. The Big 12-2 would probably take schools from both the AAC and MWC but would drop the conference value to the AAC level as far as money and prestige.

RU was picked up only for their large NE market and Louisville was a replacement for an ACC departure. The A5 is saturated with schools that are average, at best and since the AAC does not come with the advantage of a playoff chance as the OBE had, the perception of another mouth to feed, makes it very unlikely.

Its all a pipe dream because the B12 membership is making money hand over fist. There is zero pets for them to add anyone.

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(01-20-2020 05:38 PM)panama Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 05:05 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 03:01 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  The question, of course, isn't just whether or not the Big-12 is going anywhere or doing anything to trigger another realignment.

The larger question is whether any of the P5 conferences will take action by 2025 that would result in the AAC losing some teams.

So - - do you all expect the AAC to be raided or left alone?

Another question: Will UConn be the final AAC team to switch
conferences? We've lost 3 so far (L'ville, RU, & UConn).

I believe the first three questions are interconnected as the Big 12-2 is the only conference in play, Unless the BIG or SEC is willing to take ACC teams (0 chance). I believe Texas is happy where it is with the LHN and losing Oklahoma won't change that until that contract is up. The Big 12-2 would probably take schools from both the AAC and MWC but would drop the conference value to the AAC level as far as money and prestige.

RU was picked up only for their large NE market and Louisville was a replacement for an ACC departure. The A5 is saturated with schools that are average, at best and since the AAC does not come with the advantage of a playoff chance as the OBE had, the perception of another mouth to feed, makes it very unlikely.

Its all a pipe dream because the B12 membership is making money hand over fist. There is zero pets for them to add anyone.

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As long as the LHN is in place, I would agree with the addition of the Big12-2 to ESPiN+. The membership is only along for the ride, depending on UT.

(01-20-2020 11:38 AM)panama Wrote:  Boise looks to be melting but I have to believe it's posturing. An AAC football schedule would make zero sense to their fan base.

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Signed WVU in the B12.

Until the waiver expires, we're not part of the club, thus will receive no special treatment.

(01-20-2020 11:38 AM)panama Wrote:  Boise looks to be melting but I have to believe it's posturing. An AAC football schedule would make zero sense to their fan base.

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...yet they have UCF, Houston, South Florida, East Carolina and Cincinnati all on the football schedule in coming years.

I personally don't think they would come because leaving the MWC would do harm to their other sports, but they would probably not mind playing an AAC schedule. They'd play in the west with Houston, Navy, SMU, Tulsa and either Memphis or Tulane... not a bad group of schools to associate with.

Its all a pipe dream because the B12 membership is making money hand over fist. There is zero pets for them to add anyone.

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[/quote]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

People aren't paying attention - The Big XII is third in the P5 in money and there are rumors that Colorado is starting to question if moving to the PAC 12 was the right thing to do. The PAC 12 is last in money, has a number of programs that lose money, has missed the CFP more than any conference, and has struggled in basketball as well. It's entirely plausable that CU starts thinking of moving back and if THAT were to happen it would be a MASSIVE win for that conference and not only would it help to solidify their positions it would possibly lock out any schools from the American, something I'm fine with.

(01-20-2020 06:51 PM)Pirate1989 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 11:38 AM)panama Wrote:  Boise looks to be melting but I have to believe it's posturing. An AAC football schedule would make zero sense to their fan base.

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Signed WVU in the B12.

$35M > $7M ...so

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Memphis local media (Jason & John ESPN) spoke today of how upset Boise is with the new deal and said Boise to the American is a possibility, But also said the MWC will likely give Boise whatever they want to get them to stay.

(01-19-2020 09:21 AM)Chappy Wrote:  I think Air Force football and VCU is a real possibility by the end of the waiver.

Why would Air Force leave the Mountain West along with their front-range historical rivals in Colorado St and Wyoming? To gain Navy who they already play every year? I see AF as a non-starter without Colorado St. or Wyoming.

(01-20-2020 08:42 PM)JetFixer Wrote:  Memphis local media (Jason & John ESPN) spoke today of how upset Boise is with the new deal and said Boise to the American is a possibility, But also said the MWC will likely give Boise whatever they want to get them to stay.

It's a dog-and-pony show to get the Mt West to give in. If there really was a problem, it would all be done privately.

(01-22-2020 10:16 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(01-19-2020 09:21 AM)Chappy Wrote:  I think Air Force football and VCU is a real possibility by the end of the waiver.

Why would Air Force leave the Mountain West along with their front-range historical rivals in Colorado St and Wyoming? To gain Navy who they already play every year? I see AF as a non-starter without Colorado St. or Wyoming.

Narrator: They wouldn't...

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So far, 59% of respondents expect the AAC to have 12 FB and BB schools by 2023.

For another 13% of respondents, the AAC might replace UConn before 2023 if there is a school that meets the AAC criteria by that time.

(01-18-2020 11:59 AM)vick mike Wrote:  

(01-18-2020 11:40 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Until the Big 12 falls to pieces at the conclusion of their media deal.

The wet dream of Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF fans everywhere. Hate to burst your bubble, the B12 ain’t going anywhere.

Consider this——if they expand the playoff to 8 with a guaranteed spot for the highest ranked G5 champ. Staying in the AAC is an easier path to the playoff than being in the big12 if you are those teams.

If we add Army, AF, BYU, maybe a Boise the AAC will be a very strong conference and worthy of the auto bid to NY6 or new expanded playoff.

(01-20-2020 08:42 PM)JetFixer Wrote:  Memphis local media (Jason & John ESPN) spoke today of how upset Boise is with the new deal and said Boise to the American is a possibility, But also said the MWC will likely give Boise whatever they want to get them to stay.

They very well may, but like I said before, doing that will almost certainly create the kind of resentment among the other members that should make poaching another MW school much easier. Once MW schools realize Boise can use the same mechanism to hold the next MW deal hostage until Boise’s new even higher bonus demands are met in 6 years, MW schools will start looking at the AAC option as much more attractive. This is the kind of wedge issue that’s going to make it really easy for the AAC to get a #12 from the MW.

This is why you don’t do special deals with uneven revenue sharing. It’s far more divisive that the basketball schools vs football schools thing everyone here often frets about.

(01-23-2020 10:18 AM)First Mate Wrote:  Consider this——if they expand the playoff to 8 with a guaranteed spot for the highest ranked G5 champ. Staying in the AAC is an easier path to the playoff than being in the big12 if you are those teams.

If we add Army, AF, BYU, maybe a Boise the AAC will be a very strong conference and worthy of the auto bid to NY6 or new expanded playoff.

If Army, AF, BYU, or Boise St. were to become the #12 FB school, with VCU or Dayton as the #12 BB school, the AAC will get something far more valuable than an auto bid to the NY6.

The conference will be markedly stronger than it was with UConn, and will take a significant step forward on its way toward full P6/A6 status.

This is why the decision for ESPN and the AAC is so consequential. Adding an AFA/VCU or Boise/Dayton would - all by itself - propel the conference to quasi-P5 status. ESPN can have the 12-year broadcasting rights for the next P5 level conference for a bargain basement price. After that, the AAC would probably have the bargaining power to get a deal worth $20 million per school, beginning in 2032.

In other words, if ESPN wants to turn the AAC into a full-fledged Power Conference, practically all it has to do is sign an AFA or BSU and VCU or Dayton. For them, however, the bigger question may be whether its worth more to them to get 12 years for $1 billion, or to keep the AAC as it is - a middle tier conference - which they can sign again in 2032 for only slightly more than they're paying now.

This is like reading a comic book. Great stuff.

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