(01-25-2020 10:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 09:37 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 03:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 03:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-23-2020 04:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What would it take for the Big 12 to survive?

The focus of ESPN in particular upon the future of the CFP rather than upon maximization of profits from their investment in Texas would be the most legitimate path to Big 12 security.

Right now the CFP has an issue that is wrapped up in the question over how to attract even greater national attention for the playoffs. Yes things are good, but they could be a lot better.

For those thinking that the Big 12 will raid the PAC 12 for product in order to gain stability all I have to say is that the PAC seems to have no desire to head in that direction and merging the #3 and #5 conference will not produce sufficient revenue to approach the money of the #1 and #2 conferences. What's more is that it doesn't solve any issues for the networks. Adding low interest markets to Texas and Oklahoma don't maximize the networks investment in those two brands. It's much cheaper and easier to lure them into the SEC or Big 10 than it is to find value in their remaining as is in the Big 12 or in uniting them with the PAC.

Plus if they united with the PAC it actually keeps 1 region (Southwest or Pacific Coast) from being represented in the 4 team playoff. Making matters worse is the reserve of recruits in the Deep Southeast. The way things stand now Clemson, and perhaps again F.S.U., will claim the majority of the ACC titles. The SEC champion is a virtual lock for the CFP. Right now the issue is the SEC representative's market and the markets of Clemson and Florida State are virtually indistinguishable from one another when it comes to attracting audience for the CFP games.

The ideal situation for ESPN, or whoever eventually owns the rights to the CFP, is that right now consistently only 3 of the 4 major regions of the country are ever represented in the CFP. If the networks wanted to make sure that every CFP began with maximum national interest they won't obtain that if the Big 12 is parsed, or if the Big 12 and PAC merge because Clemson and Alabama (or Florida State and another Deep South SEC school) have the highest probability of being in every year.

There is only 1 solution that maximizes profits for the SEC and Big 10 and keeps the Big 12 together.

Move Notre Dame, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia to the Big 10. This multiplies the content of basketball immeasurably and it maximizes market penetration for the Big 10. Those 4 schools start making media revenue in the mid 70 million range, or more.

Move Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson and Florida State into the SEC. Now there will only be 1 representative from the Deep South, the champion. This maximizes the SEC's content value and expands their markets significantly.

Georgia Tech and Miami both in transportation hubs join the Big 12 giving Texas and Oklahoma exposure to two of the best recruiting grounds outside of Texas. Add Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse to the North along with Louisville for markets and enhanced basketball to pair with Kansas. Wake Forest could be added for academic and market penetration and B.Y.U. rounds them out at 18.

Texas and Oklahoma keep their own conference, ESPN buys out the Big 12 contract in total and gains what they wanted anyway, complete control of the top brands in Texas. The bump given for this would be moderate, but it gives the network a definable region likely to be represented by either Texas or Oklahoma's brand and it places at profit all of the members of the current ACC.

The PAC can add or remain the same but the 4 champions advance to the CFP and the network is guaranteed interest from the 4 most important sporting regions of the nation.

ESPN owns 49% of the Big 10 rights, 100% of the SEC's rights, 100% of the Big 12's rights, and 50% of the PAC's rights.

They control the CFP. They control most of the bowls. The gain ad leverage in Texas, have it Florida and Georgia, and still have their access to the late night PAC product they want.

The SEC and Big 10 make 75 to 85 million. The Big 12 gets into the mid 50's. The PAC makes what it can but has annual access to the CFP which will help interest in their product. And the ACCN and LHN are rolled into the B12N.

Now that's the only way I see the Big 12 getting saved. It doesn't work to look West. It doesn't help maximize Texas's value or Oklahoma's to put them in the ACC where there is one superpower right now in football.

If something like this doesn't happen the best product of the Big 12 will be lured away to either the SEC or Big 10 or both.

Only the markets and exposure on the East coast can add to the Big 12's overall value enough to keep them viable.

Big changes are coming X. I'll have my laugh a bit later.

JR if ESPN owns 100% of the Big 12, ACC and SEC and they truly wanted the Big 12 to survive and thrive, it wouldn't be done by cobbling the Big 12 together with the lesser schools from the ACC.
Why would ESPN let Carolina, UVa, Duke and Notre Dame march off to the B1G without any compensation what so ever?
If ESPN wanted to help the Big 12, all they would have to do is peel off Missouri and Arkansas from the SEC to form a solid 12 team league. There would still be enough value in a 12 team SEC to continue at it's current level.
If the SEC had to go back to 14, West Virginia is still hanging out there coupled with Louisville? Other wise I guess we would be enticed to add the Mountaineers to go to 15 and a partial.
The Big 12 with Arkansas and Missouri would tend to build pressure on Nebraska and Colorado to come home when the time was right. At that point maybe you move NC State and Virginia Tech to the SEC to get back to 14 and perhaps Notre Dame becomes more active with the ACC as a 13 team league.
That, JR, is how the Big 12 could be saved.

SEC would be more valuable (per school) if they peeled off Missouri and Arkansas.

Would ESPN be better off with 3 conferences rather than two?
Maybe that SEC overflow channel may have some uses, yet.

(01-26-2020 07:41 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 10:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 09:37 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 03:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 03:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  

Big changes are coming X. I'll have my laugh a bit later.

JR if ESPN owns 100% of the Big 12, ACC and SEC and they truly wanted the Big 12 to survive and thrive, it wouldn't be done by cobbling the Big 12 together with the lesser schools from the ACC.
Why would ESPN let Carolina, UVa, Duke and Notre Dame march off to the B1G without any compensation what so ever?
If ESPN wanted to help the Big 12, all they would have to do is peel off Missouri and Arkansas from the SEC to form a solid 12 team league. There would still be enough value in a 12 team SEC to continue at it's current level.
If the SEC had to go back to 14, West Virginia is still hanging out there coupled with Louisville? Other wise I guess we would be enticed to add the Mountaineers to go to 15 and a partial.
The Big 12 with Arkansas and Missouri would tend to build pressure on Nebraska and Colorado to come home when the time was right. At that point maybe you move NC State and Virginia Tech to the SEC to get back to 14 and perhaps Notre Dame becomes more active with the ACC as a 13 team league.
That, JR, is how the Big 12 could be saved.

SEC would be more valuable (per school) if they peeled off Missouri and Arkansas.

Would ESPN be better off with 3 conferences rather than two?
Maybe that SEC overflow channel may have some uses, yet.

It's used quite often during football season. There are frequently games on both channels. The overflow channel just doesn't host non athletic competition programming.