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G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
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Post: #101
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
Quote:1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Oregon
6. Florida
7. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Minnesota
11. Wisconsin
12. Notre Dame
13. Baylor
14. Auburn
15. Iowa
16. Utah
17. Memphis
18. Michigan
19. Appalachian State
20. Navy
21. Cincinnati
22. Air Force
23. Boise State
24. UCF

25. Texas

This is exactly what I predicted would eventually happen after the CFP deal was signed and the addition of the AAC to the have not leagues. They would eventually prove that one access bowl isn't enough.

Memphis had a shot and they failed. How would Appalachian State done if they had a shot? Over a decade ago they upset Michigan from the rankings as an FCS school. Today the finish next to Michigan in the Top 25 rankings.

In the next round of the CFP negotiations they should consider giving every conference champion an access bowl to make it more fair. Turn it into a NY10 by adding the Gator, Citrus, Alamo and Las Vegas bowl with a G5 champ assigned to each against a Top 20 P5.
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020 09:36 AM by Kit-Cat.)
01-20-2020 09:35 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #102
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 09:19 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Without rehashing anything the fact that the weakest programs of the SEC will still get four or five guys in a recruiting class with 4 stars just by default because they play in the SEC does make a difference.

07-coffee3

I follow both the SEC and the AAC. There is a clear talent difference. But the American's best team any given year — and I'll use Memphis from this season (since I pull for the Tigers) — could have beaten in a one-game situation this past season any SEC team not named Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia or Florida. Ditto for UCF two years ago (and that team was MUCH better than this Memphis team and probably could have beaten any SEC team other than Bama).

Now — and we'll use UCF and South Florida in this example, as those are two G5 programs that could do well in a P5 league — to just "throw in" an American team for one year only ... yes, that team would get pounded game in and game out more so with an SEC slate than an AAC schedule. We all know that.

So, and to make the hypothetical as legit as possible, you have to give (in this case) UCF and USF multiple seasons to both "recruit up" and for their players to adjust to the back-to-back roughness of SEC play. I believe that a UCF or USF could be as good (but not necessarily better) as any of the SEC programs year in and year out — other than the five I note and Texas A&M — if given time.

Navy (as many of you have debated withing this thread) is a VERY different animal. Put Navy in the SEC and over, say, five seasons ... nothing really changes. Navy would still recruit the same type player and that would not suffice in the SEC.
01-20-2020 09:35 AM
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Post: #103
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
I want to re-address the idea that Navy couldn't even survive a season playing in a contract bowl conference, that they wouldn't end the season with their health, that they would get beaten down and ground down.

I grabbed the average O-Line weight data from post #93. I added one more line and then annotated some.

Quote:here are the average starting O-Line weights of Navy's AAC schedule this year and UF's SEC schedule this year
328.6 Georgia
322 Missouri
321.4 LSU
318 S.Carolina
316.8 Kentucky
316.4 Tennessee
* 315.8 USF *
* 308.8 Notre Dame *
* 308.2 Tulsa *

307 Auburn
306.6 Vanderbilt
* 303.8 SMU *
* 303 Tulane *
* 299.4 Houston *
* 297.6 UConn *
293 ECU
289.4 Memphis


The UF conf schedule averages 317.11 and the Navy conf schedule averages 301.275

Navy's D-Line averages 271.3 - so it would go from being outweighed by 30 pounds week after week after week to being outweighted by 45.8 pounds week after week after week.

From 12 October to 30 November, Navy played the seven teams offset by "*" with one bye week in there. Navy went 7-1, but more importantly survived. Survived well enough to dominate one of the three teams on the schedule to whom we don't give up 30 pounds per man and then to take the SEC's unused spot in the Liberty Bowl and beat a contract-bowl-conference team that held the only win over a CFP semifinalist.

Seven games in eight weeks facing an average of 305.2 pounds across the O-line - let's just call it seven games in eight weeks against "Vanderbilt sized" or "Auburn sized" O-lines.

Setting aside potential to succeed or not, just survival...

Looking at those mid- to bottom-tier SEC teams and the potential for massacre...is the difference-maker the extra 2-10 pounds per man from a team that got beat by App State or the 0.6 to 8 pounds per man from a team that got beat by Georgia State at the top of that list? Or is the difference maker the 9 pounds per man Auburn and Vandy have over UConn at the bottom of that list?

Or, maybe just maybe Navy is already out-physicalled and already survives. And (heresy coming) the mid- to bottom-tier of the SEC is not an otherworldly difference from the AAC and Navy wouldn't be destroyed by the marginal increase.

Not even predicting success in this post.
But I am suggesting that some should think about their blind acceptance that Navy wouldn't physically survive, starting with their clown-show entering arguments like "90 pounds per man"
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020 10:32 AM by slhNavy91.)
01-20-2020 10:31 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #104
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 10:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I want to re-address the idea that Navy couldn't even survive a season playing in a contract bowl conference, that they wouldn't end the season with their health, that they would get beaten down and ground down.

I grabbed the average O-Line weight data from post #93. I added one more line and then annotated some.

Quote:here are the average starting O-Line weights of Navy's AAC schedule this year and UF's SEC schedule this year
328.6 Georgia
322 Missouri
321.4 LSU
318 S.Carolina
316.8 Kentucky
316.4 Tennessee
* 315.8 USF *
* 308.8 Notre Dame *
* 308.2 Tulsa *

307 Auburn
306.6 Vanderbilt
* 303.8 SMU *
* 303 Tulane *
* 299.4 Houston *
* 297.6 UConn *
293 ECU
289.4 Memphis


The UF conf schedule averages 317.11 and the Navy conf schedule averages 301.275

Navy's D-Line averages 271.3 - so it would go from being outweighed by 30 pounds week after week after week to being outweighted by 45.8 pounds week after week after week.

From 12 October to 30 November, Navy played the seven teams offset by "*" with one bye week in there. Navy went 7-1, but more importantly survived. Survived well enough to dominate one of the three teams on the schedule to whom we don't give up 30 pounds per man and then to take the SEC's unused spot in the Liberty Bowl and beat a contract-bowl-conference team that held the only win over a CFP semifinalist.

Seven games in eight weeks facing an average of 305.2 pounds across the O-line - let's just call it seven games in eight weeks against "Vanderbilt sized" or "Auburn sized" O-lines.

Setting aside potential to succeed or not, just survival...

Looking at those mid- to bottom-tier SEC teams and the potential for massacre...is the difference-maker the extra 2-10 pounds per man from a team that got beat by App State or the 0.6 to 8 pounds per man from a team that got beat by Georgia State at the top of that list? Or is the difference maker the 9 pounds per man Auburn and Vandy have over UConn at the bottom of that list?

Or, maybe just maybe Navy is already out-physicalled and already survives. And (heresy coming) the mid- to bottom-tier of the SEC is not an otherworldly difference from the AAC and Navy wouldn't be destroyed by the marginal increase.

Not even predicting success in this post.
But I am suggesting that some should think about their blind acceptance that Navy wouldn't physically survive, starting with their clown-show entering arguments like "90 pounds per man"

I think Navy might do better than some on the board (myself included) realize. It's difficult to say with certainty. I do, however, believe some programs (and UCF and USF are two) are better suited to fare better in the SEC than others (including Navy) because those two would get far more four star recruits (than Navy and others) if in the SEC. Maybe I'm wrong.

The most important thing is that I always wish Navy well when it plays, slhNavy91. I tremendously respect those coaches and young men. You've got a strong program that can beat most P5 teams on a given day. I'm very pleased to have you in the AAC with Memphis and Cincy.
01-20-2020 11:26 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #105
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 10:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I want to re-address the idea that Navy couldn't even survive a season playing in a contract bowl conference, that they wouldn't end the season with their health, that they would get beaten down and ground down.

I grabbed the average O-Line weight data from post #93. I added one more line and then annotated some.

Quote:here are the average starting O-Line weights of Navy's AAC schedule this year and UF's SEC schedule this year
328.6 Georgia
322 Missouri
321.4 LSU
318 S.Carolina
316.8 Kentucky
316.4 Tennessee
* 315.8 USF *
* 308.8 Notre Dame *
* 308.2 Tulsa *

307 Auburn
306.6 Vanderbilt
* 303.8 SMU *
* 303 Tulane *
* 299.4 Houston *
* 297.6 UConn *
293 ECU
289.4 Memphis


The UF conf schedule averages 317.11 and the Navy conf schedule averages 301.275

Navy's D-Line averages 271.3 - so it would go from being outweighed by 30 pounds week after week after week to being outweighted by 45.8 pounds week after week after week.

From 12 October to 30 November, Navy played the seven teams offset by "*" with one bye week in there. Navy went 7-1, but more importantly survived. Survived well enough to dominate one of the three teams on the schedule to whom we don't give up 30 pounds per man and then to take the SEC's unused spot in the Liberty Bowl and beat a contract-bowl-conference team that held the only win over a CFP semifinalist.

Seven games in eight weeks facing an average of 305.2 pounds across the O-line - let's just call it seven games in eight weeks against "Vanderbilt sized" or "Auburn sized" O-lines.

Setting aside potential to succeed or not, just survival...

Looking at those mid- to bottom-tier SEC teams and the potential for massacre...is the difference-maker the extra 2-10 pounds per man from a team that got beat by App State or the 0.6 to 8 pounds per man from a team that got beat by Georgia State at the top of that list? Or is the difference maker the 9 pounds per man Auburn and Vandy have over UConn at the bottom of that list?

Or, maybe just maybe Navy is already out-physicalled and already survives. And (heresy coming) the mid- to bottom-tier of the SEC is not an otherworldly difference from the AAC and Navy wouldn't be destroyed by the marginal increase.

Not even predicting success in this post.
But I am suggesting that some should think about their blind acceptance that Navy wouldn't physically survive, starting with their clown-show entering arguments like "90 pounds per man"

As I've explained, it's not just size, it's quality, talent. Some 6'4" 300 pound lineman are 2-star guys, others are 4-star or 5-star because of quality. The latter guy may have a better frame, more muscle and less fat, they are faster, stronger, better technique, hit harder, etc. that's what makes them better.

AAC schools get the guys at those size who are just weaker all around. That's why they end up at Memphis and not Tennessee, UCF not Florida.

Nobody can stop you from believing that Navy wouldn't get beaten up and worn down in the SEC but there's just no good reason to think it wouldn't happen.
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020 12:33 PM by quo vadis.)
01-20-2020 12:31 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #106
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 12:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 10:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I want to re-address the idea that Navy couldn't even survive a season playing in a contract bowl conference, that they wouldn't end the season with their health, that they would get beaten down and ground down.

I grabbed the average O-Line weight data from post #93. I added one more line and then annotated some.

Quote:here are the average starting O-Line weights of Navy's AAC schedule this year and UF's SEC schedule this year
328.6 Georgia
322 Missouri
321.4 LSU
318 S.Carolina
316.8 Kentucky
316.4 Tennessee
* 315.8 USF *
* 308.8 Notre Dame *
* 308.2 Tulsa *

307 Auburn
306.6 Vanderbilt
* 303.8 SMU *
* 303 Tulane *
* 299.4 Houston *
* 297.6 UConn *
293 ECU
289.4 Memphis


The UF conf schedule averages 317.11 and the Navy conf schedule averages 301.275

Navy's D-Line averages 271.3 - so it would go from being outweighed by 30 pounds week after week after week to being outweighted by 45.8 pounds week after week after week.

From 12 October to 30 November, Navy played the seven teams offset by "*" with one bye week in there. Navy went 7-1, but more importantly survived. Survived well enough to dominate one of the three teams on the schedule to whom we don't give up 30 pounds per man and then to take the SEC's unused spot in the Liberty Bowl and beat a contract-bowl-conference team that held the only win over a CFP semifinalist.

Seven games in eight weeks facing an average of 305.2 pounds across the O-line - let's just call it seven games in eight weeks against "Vanderbilt sized" or "Auburn sized" O-lines.

Setting aside potential to succeed or not, just survival...

Looking at those mid- to bottom-tier SEC teams and the potential for massacre...is the difference-maker the extra 2-10 pounds per man from a team that got beat by App State or the 0.6 to 8 pounds per man from a team that got beat by Georgia State at the top of that list? Or is the difference maker the 9 pounds per man Auburn and Vandy have over UConn at the bottom of that list?

Or, maybe just maybe Navy is already out-physicalled and already survives. And (heresy coming) the mid- to bottom-tier of the SEC is not an otherworldly difference from the AAC and Navy wouldn't be destroyed by the marginal increase.

Not even predicting success in this post.
But I am suggesting that some should think about their blind acceptance that Navy wouldn't physically survive, starting with their clown-show entering arguments like "90 pounds per man"

As I've explained, it's not just size, it's quality, talent. Some 6'4" 300 pound lineman are 2-star guys, others are 4-star or 5-star because of quality. The latter guy may have a better frame, more muscle and less fat, they are faster, stronger, better technique, hit harder, etc. that's what makes them better.

AAC schools get the guys at those size who are just weaker all around. That's why they end up at Memphis and not Tennessee, UCF not Florida.

Nobody can stop you from believing that Navy wouldn't get beaten up and worn down in the SEC but there's just no good reason to think it wouldn't happen.

You're right.
Speed matters.

Here's Malcolm Perry showing out on a field full of NFL Prospects


His RT #78 is Auburn's Wanogho. Looks like wanted to get one more block on the Big10 LB, but Perry was already past both of them, having made the Big10 lineman look absolutely silly with the fake as well.
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020 02:16 PM by slhNavy91.)
01-20-2020 01:16 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #107
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 09:35 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:19 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Without rehashing anything the fact that the weakest programs of the SEC will still get four or five guys in a recruiting class with 4 stars just by default because they play in the SEC does make a difference.

07-coffee3

I follow both the SEC and the AAC. There is a clear talent difference. But the American's best team any given year — and I'll use Memphis from this season (since I pull for the Tigers) — could have beaten in a one-game situation this past season any SEC team not named Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia or Florida. Ditto for UCF two years ago (and that team was MUCH better than this Memphis team and probably could have beaten any SEC team other than Bama).

Now — and we'll use UCF and South Florida in this example, as those are two G5 programs that could do well in a P5 league — to just "throw in" an American team for one year only ... yes, that team would get pounded game in and game out more so with an SEC slate than an AAC schedule. We all know that.

So, and to make the hypothetical as legit as possible, you have to give (in this case) UCF and USF multiple seasons to both "recruit up" and for their players to adjust to the back-to-back roughness of SEC play. I believe that a UCF or USF could be as good (but not necessarily better) as any of the SEC programs year in and year out — other than the five I note and Texas A&M — if given time.

Navy (as many of you have debated withing this thread) is a VERY different animal. Put Navy in the SEC and over, say, five seasons ... nothing really changes. Navy would still recruit the same type player and that would not suffice in the SEC.

Bill - you're absolutely right that Navy would not benefit from a move-up like Cincinnati, Memphis, the Florida twins, etc. The academics and military commitment and infintisemal chance at the NFL (we'll see how this new policy works out, but that is potentially temporary as well) create a ceiling.
However, Navy isn't yet at that absolute ceiling, nor Navy's AAC ceiling (which is also lower than all our conference mates).

Surprised there's less talk of Cincinnati by the way. Not in my measurements data because not on Navy's '19 schedule, but at/near the top. Fickell's model is to build a Big10 like team.
01-20-2020 02:16 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #108
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 01:16 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  You're right.
Speed matters.

Here's Malcolm Perry showing out on a field full of NFL Prospects

Well golly gee. Good for him, best of luck.
01-20-2020 05:32 PM
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Post: #109
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 05:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 01:16 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  You're right.
Speed matters.

Here's Malcolm Perry showing out on a field full of NFL Prospects

Well golly gee. Good for him, best of luck.

I'm just glad he survived the Shrine Bowl experience without getting Ground Down and Beat Up. It's like a "G5" miracle.
01-20-2020 05:51 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #110
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 05:51 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 01:16 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  You're right.
Speed matters.

Here's Malcolm Perry showing out on a field full of NFL Prospects

Well golly gee. Good for him, best of luck.

I'm just glad he survived the Shrine Bowl experience without getting Ground Down and Beat Up. It's like a "G5" miracle.

Yes, he didn't spend a season in the SEC with Navy's linemen blocking for him. Good for him. 03-lmfao
01-20-2020 05:56 PM
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Post: #111
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 01:16 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 12:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 10:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I want to re-address the idea that Navy couldn't even survive a season playing in a contract bowl conference, that they wouldn't end the season with their health, that they would get beaten down and ground down.

I grabbed the average O-Line weight data from post #93. I added one more line and then annotated some.

Quote:here are the average starting O-Line weights of Navy's AAC schedule this year and UF's SEC schedule this year
328.6 Georgia
322 Missouri
321.4 LSU
318 S.Carolina
316.8 Kentucky
316.4 Tennessee
* 315.8 USF *
* 308.8 Notre Dame *
* 308.2 Tulsa *

307 Auburn
306.6 Vanderbilt
* 303.8 SMU *
* 303 Tulane *
* 299.4 Houston *
* 297.6 UConn *
293 ECU
289.4 Memphis


The UF conf schedule averages 317.11 and the Navy conf schedule averages 301.275

Navy's D-Line averages 271.3 - so it would go from being outweighed by 30 pounds week after week after week to being outweighted by 45.8 pounds week after week after week.

From 12 October to 30 November, Navy played the seven teams offset by "*" with one bye week in there. Navy went 7-1, but more importantly survived. Survived well enough to dominate one of the three teams on the schedule to whom we don't give up 30 pounds per man and then to take the SEC's unused spot in the Liberty Bowl and beat a contract-bowl-conference team that held the only win over a CFP semifinalist.

Seven games in eight weeks facing an average of 305.2 pounds across the O-line - let's just call it seven games in eight weeks against "Vanderbilt sized" or "Auburn sized" O-lines.

Setting aside potential to succeed or not, just survival...

Looking at those mid- to bottom-tier SEC teams and the potential for massacre...is the difference-maker the extra 2-10 pounds per man from a team that got beat by App State or the 0.6 to 8 pounds per man from a team that got beat by Georgia State at the top of that list? Or is the difference maker the 9 pounds per man Auburn and Vandy have over UConn at the bottom of that list?

Or, maybe just maybe Navy is already out-physicalled and already survives. And (heresy coming) the mid- to bottom-tier of the SEC is not an otherworldly difference from the AAC and Navy wouldn't be destroyed by the marginal increase.

Not even predicting success in this post.
But I am suggesting that some should think about their blind acceptance that Navy wouldn't physically survive, starting with their clown-show entering arguments like "90 pounds per man"

As I've explained, it's not just size, it's quality, talent. Some 6'4" 300 pound lineman are 2-star guys, others are 4-star or 5-star because of quality. The latter guy may have a better frame, more muscle and less fat, they are faster, stronger, better technique, hit harder, etc. that's what makes them better.

AAC schools get the guys at those size who are just weaker all around. That's why they end up at Memphis and not Tennessee, UCF not Florida.

Nobody can stop you from believing that Navy wouldn't get beaten up and worn down in the SEC but there's just no good reason to think it wouldn't happen.

You're right.
Speed matters.

Here's Malcolm Perry showing out on a field full of NFL Prospects


His RT #78 is Auburn's Wanogho. Looks like wanted to get one more block on the Big10 LB, but Perry was already past both of them, having made the Big10 lineman look absolutely silly with the fake as well.

Perry has the speed, but it helped that Killins was in that backfield on that option play.
01-20-2020 06:19 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #112
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 02:16 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:35 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:19 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Without rehashing anything the fact that the weakest programs of the SEC will still get four or five guys in a recruiting class with 4 stars just by default because they play in the SEC does make a difference.

07-coffee3

I follow both the SEC and the AAC. There is a clear talent difference. But the American's best team any given year — and I'll use Memphis from this season (since I pull for the Tigers) — could have beaten in a one-game situation this past season any SEC team not named Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia or Florida. Ditto for UCF two years ago (and that team was MUCH better than this Memphis team and probably could have beaten any SEC team other than Bama).

Now — and we'll use UCF and South Florida in this example, as those are two G5 programs that could do well in a P5 league — to just "throw in" an American team for one year only ... yes, that team would get pounded game in and game out more so with an SEC slate than an AAC schedule. We all know that.

So, and to make the hypothetical as legit as possible, you have to give (in this case) UCF and USF multiple seasons to both "recruit up" and for their players to adjust to the back-to-back roughness of SEC play. I believe that a UCF or USF could be as good (but not necessarily better) as any of the SEC programs year in and year out — other than the five I note and Texas A&M — if given time.

Navy (as many of you have debated withing this thread) is a VERY different animal. Put Navy in the SEC and over, say, five seasons ... nothing really changes. Navy would still recruit the same type player and that would not suffice in the SEC.

Bill - you're absolutely right that Navy would not benefit from a move-up like Cincinnati, Memphis, the Florida twins, etc. The academics and military commitment and infintisemal chance at the NFL (we'll see how this new policy works out, but that is potentially temporary as well) create a ceiling.
However, Navy isn't yet at that absolute ceiling, nor Navy's AAC ceiling (which is also lower than all our conference mates).

Surprised there's less talk of Cincinnati by the way. Not in my measurements data because not on Navy's '19 schedule, but at/near the top. Fickell's model is to build a Big10 like team.


If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

I would like to see Navy continue to do well in the AAC. It's great for the league to have an academy in the polls and it would motivate Navy to stay in the conference (more so than if it were getting pounded every year) long term.

Malcolm Perry was stellar this year. He's from Clarksville (as you know), just up the road from Nashville (where I live) and in a county home to six craft beer breweries (strong for its population).

Keep up the fine posting, slhNavy91.
01-20-2020 09:11 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #113
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-20-2020 09:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

Not so sure. Usually, in bowl games, the SEC beat the B1G, their speedier style beats the more corn-fed bulkier style of the B1G. Not always, as Minnesota proved vs Auburn, but usually. So southern AAC teams that emulate a SEC/FSU/Clemson approach might have an advantage.

Of course, it boils down to athletes more than style. If Cincy can recruit close to B1G-level athletes and the southern AAC teams can't do the same then yes, Cincy will dominate.
01-21-2020 09:15 AM
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Post: #114
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-21-2020 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

Not so sure. Usually, in bowl games, the SEC beat the B1G, their speedier style beats the more corn-fed bulkier style of the B1G. Not always, as Minnesota proved vs Auburn, but usually. So southern AAC teams that emulate a SEC/FSU/Clemson approach might have an advantage.

Of course, it boils down to athletes more than style. If Cincy can recruit close to B1G-level athletes and the southern AAC teams can't do the same then yes, Cincy will dominate.


Good point, Quo. I probably should have written "it could dominate the AAC." I'm not impressed with AAC defenses collectively. But many of the offenses are strong.
01-21-2020 09:20 AM
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Post: #115
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-21-2020 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

Not so sure. Usually, in bowl games, the SEC beat the B1G, their speedier style beats the more corn-fed bulkier style of the B1G. Not always, as Minnesota proved vs Auburn, but usually. So southern AAC teams that emulate a SEC/FSU/Clemson approach might have an advantage.

Of course, it boils down to athletes more than style. If Cincy can recruit close to B1G-level athletes and the southern AAC teams can't do the same then yes, Cincy will dominate.

Big 10 teams face two big disadvantages in bowl games versus SEC teams

First, bowl games are often de-facto home games for the SEC team. Home field advantage is worth between 2 to 5 points in CFB.

Second, Big 10 teams are built to succeed in cold weather. 3 yards and a cloud of dust has an advantage when it's 20 degrees out, but is at a disadvantage when it's 60 degrees out. Bowl games are usually closer to 60 degrees, so it's an advantage to the SEC. If bowl games were played in Soldier Field, the results would be very different.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2020 09:48 AM by Captain Bearcat.)
01-21-2020 09:47 AM
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Post: #116
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-21-2020 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

Not so sure. Usually, in bowl games, the SEC beat the B1G, their speedier style beats the more corn-fed bulkier style of the B1G. Not always, as Minnesota proved vs Auburn, but usually. So southern AAC teams that emulate a SEC/FSU/Clemson approach might have an advantage.

Of course, it boils down to athletes more than style. If Cincy can recruit close to B1G-level athletes and the southern AAC teams can't do the same then yes, Cincy will dominate.

Actually, its just Ohio St., who has been kind of SEC-lite, that gets beat regularly by SEC teams. Ohio St. has the size to compete with big Big 10 squads, but near SEC speed. And they dominate. But when they go up against SEC squads, they don't have the size to dominate and don't have enough speed. Bulkier, slower Big 10 squads have tended to do better.
01-21-2020 01:31 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #117
RE: G5 Has 7 in Final AP Top 25
(01-21-2020 09:47 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If Cincy ever has even a poor man's Big Ten-like team, it will dominate the AAC, which is not known for its strong defenses. I do like what L. Fickell is doing with the Bearcats.

Not so sure. Usually, in bowl games, the SEC beat the B1G, their speedier style beats the more corn-fed bulkier style of the B1G. Not always, as Minnesota proved vs Auburn, but usually. So southern AAC teams that emulate a SEC/FSU/Clemson approach might have an advantage.

Of course, it boils down to athletes more than style. If Cincy can recruit close to B1G-level athletes and the southern AAC teams can't do the same then yes, Cincy will dominate.

Big 10 teams face two big disadvantages in bowl games versus SEC teams

First, bowl games are often de-facto home games for the SEC team. Home field advantage is worth between 2 to 5 points in CFB.

Second, Big 10 teams are built to succeed in cold weather. 3 yards and a cloud of dust has an advantage when it's 20 degrees out, but is at a disadvantage when it's 60 degrees out. Bowl games are usually closer to 60 degrees, so it's an advantage to the SEC. If bowl games were played in Soldier Field, the results would be very different.

Not many bowl games are 'de facto' home games for SEC teams. LSU playing in New Orleans? Sure. Florida playing anywhere in Florida? Sure. Georgia playing in Atlanta? Sure. But those are kind of rare. E.g., in 2018, the B1G and SEC played in four bowl games, none of which were within 300 miles of the SEC team. The SEC went 3-1 in them anyway. This year, 2019, it was the same thing - Alabama vs Michigan in Orlando, Tennessee vs Indiana in Jacksonville, and Minnesota vs Auburn in Tampa. Yes, the SEC team was closer to the bowl game than the B1G team, but they weren't close. Plus, travel means less for bowls because you have so much time to prepare.

As for weather, the results also might be different if bowl games were played in 90 degree heat as well, which many deep south teams must accustom to the first month of the season but B1G teams tend to avoid. LSU's first three home games this year were played in temperatures 92 and above. Sixty degrees is basically a nice neutral ground, comfortable for everyone.

Anyway, cold weather is overrated in college football, which is more of a summer sport than a winter sport. Yes, we all love when we turn on the TV in November and there is snow flying around the field, but those games are relatively rare. E.g., these were the temperatures in Ann Arbor for Michigan home games this year, and Michigan is more northerly than many B1G schools:

73
74
71
56
55
34
40

I would say that only two of those qualify as "cold weather", the two November games.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2020 11:15 AM by quo vadis.)
01-22-2020 10:56 AM
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