JRsec
Super Moderator
Posts: 37,886
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
|
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-20-2020 10:39 PM)Statefan Wrote: (01-20-2020 09:18 PM)JRsec Wrote: (01-20-2020 09:13 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote: (01-15-2020 08:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: JR is one of the most knowledgeable posters on here and he is absolutely right that the SEC and Big Ten will continue to add high value inventory at the expense of the other 3.
Having more of the big value programs consolidated in a smaller number of conferences absolutely increases their leveraging power against the networks. If you want college football content that is actually going to draw viewers you are going to have to go through one of them.
Phase one will occur in 2024, when the assets off the Big 12 are divided. I surmise that it will be Texas and TTU to the SEC and Kansas and Oklahoma to the Big Ten.
In 2037 phase two will occur. Florida St and Clemson join the SEC and ND and a tbd school join the Big Ten. The move to 18 apiece will lead to both the SEC and Big Ten to go for a 3 divisions of 6 alignment and the 3 division winners and a wildcard will compete in a conference playoff.
From a Big Ten perspective it's an open question whether they'd be willing to wait an extra thirteen years for a program that has rejected their overtures in the past and, due to the way they recruit, may potentially suffer a Nebraska-like decline, when they might have a chance to win over two brands, a basketball brand and a +1 in a growing area of the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a full-court press behind the scenes to win over all of UT, TT, OU and KU. While getting to 18 in one shot would be awkward, the risk of waiting additional years for something that may not pan out might be even greater.
Just my humble opinion.
And that's where it gets interesting. That's where an OU/OSU, UT/TTU offer comes into play for the SEC. ESPN if they want those brands to complete their hold on Texas will commit the resources.
I would think if ESPN placed TT/UT/OU/OSU into the SEC and went to 18 that they would place TCU, Kansas and one other in the ACC for two conferences with three divisions of six.
SEC West - TT, Texas, OU, OSU, Arkansas, Mizzou
SEC Gulf TAMU, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, TN Bama
SEC East Florida, UGA, Auburn, SC, Vandy, Kentucky
Two rivals, and they can come from the ACC.
Bama - Vandy, Auburn
UGa - GT, LSU
Florida - FSU, Mizzou
Texas - TAMU, LSU
Kentucky - Lousivlle, TN
TN - Vandy, Kentucky
LSU - Texas, Arkansas
Oklahoma - Ole Miss, Nebraska
Vandy - Bama, TN
Ole Miss - OU, Mizzou
MSU - , Auburn, TT
TT - Ole Miss, MSU
Auburn - Alabama, MSU
Mizzou - FLorida, Ole Miss
TAMU - Texas, SC
SC - Clemson, TAMU
OSU - Arkansas
Arkansas - LSU, OSU
ACC North - ND, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Miami, Navy
ACC West - Kansas, TCU, GT, FSU, Louisville, Clemson
ACC Atlantic - VT, UVa, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
Everyone gets
There aren't too many ways to divide up the current powers. I'm not so sure that ESPN needs or wants to pay for Oklahoma. They have paid handsomely to hold onto to Texas. If ESPN has Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech they control DFW. At that point OU is redundant and if the price for OU is OSU then it is doubly redundant. And there's the angle that Texas really regains a full upper hand with the move. Baylor and T.C.U. no longer carry the same brand they have. Oklahoma is retained for the RRR, but not as an SEC member which does help to keep some Texas recruits at home. ESPN doesn't have to wonder about how to position Oklahoma State or Kansas State if it works this way.
T.C.U. and Baylor become the schools transferred to the ACC. ESPN still owns all of the P5 properties in Texas. T.C.U. and Baylor give them solid enough sports properties, the DFW demographic for the ACC and part of Houston. N.D. remains a partial for now. Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and F.S.U. get extra football help with those 2 and yet both bring decent hoops and baseball.
Oklahoma and Kansas join the Big 10.
SEC:
Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Wake Forest.
Baylor, Florida State, Miami, T.C.U.
* Notre Dame
Big 10:
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
There's your likeliest solution.
Texas can play both Notre Dame and Oklahoma if they wish since their main rivals will be essentially in division. Notre Dame can play Texas and a California school if they wish and still have 3 more games to schedule Navy, a Deep South school, and play Stanford.
|
|