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A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #61
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-20-2020 10:39 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 09:13 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 08:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  JR is one of the most knowledgeable posters on here and he is absolutely right that the SEC and Big Ten will continue to add high value inventory at the expense of the other 3.

Having more of the big value programs consolidated in a smaller number of conferences absolutely increases their leveraging power against the networks. If you want college football content that is actually going to draw viewers you are going to have to go through one of them.

Phase one will occur in 2024, when the assets off the Big 12 are divided. I surmise that it will be Texas and TTU to the SEC and Kansas and Oklahoma to the Big Ten.

In 2037 phase two will occur. Florida St and Clemson join the SEC and ND and a tbd school join the Big Ten. The move to 18 apiece will lead to both the SEC and Big Ten to go for a 3 divisions of 6 alignment and the 3 division winners and a wildcard will compete in a conference playoff.

From a Big Ten perspective it's an open question whether they'd be willing to wait an extra thirteen years for a program that has rejected their overtures in the past and, due to the way they recruit, may potentially suffer a Nebraska-like decline, when they might have a chance to win over two brands, a basketball brand and a +1 in a growing area of the country.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a full-court press behind the scenes to win over all of UT, TT, OU and KU. While getting to 18 in one shot would be awkward, the risk of waiting additional years for something that may not pan out might be even greater.

Just my humble opinion.

And that's where it gets interesting. That's where an OU/OSU, UT/TTU offer comes into play for the SEC. ESPN if they want those brands to complete their hold on Texas will commit the resources.

I would think if ESPN placed TT/UT/OU/OSU into the SEC and went to 18 that they would place TCU, Kansas and one other in the ACC for two conferences with three divisions of six.

SEC West - TT, Texas, OU, OSU, Arkansas, Mizzou
SEC Gulf TAMU, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, TN Bama
SEC East Florida, UGA, Auburn, SC, Vandy, Kentucky

Two rivals, and they can come from the ACC.

Bama - Vandy, Auburn
UGa - GT, LSU
Florida - FSU, Mizzou
Texas - TAMU, LSU
Kentucky - Lousivlle, TN
TN - Vandy, Kentucky
LSU - Texas, Arkansas
Oklahoma - Ole Miss, Nebraska
Vandy - Bama, TN
Ole Miss - OU, Mizzou
MSU - , Auburn, TT
TT - Ole Miss, MSU
Auburn - Alabama, MSU
Mizzou - FLorida, Ole Miss
TAMU - Texas, SC
SC - Clemson, TAMU
OSU - Arkansas
Arkansas - LSU, OSU

ACC North - ND, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Miami, Navy
ACC West - Kansas, TCU, GT, FSU, Louisville, Clemson
ACC Atlantic - VT, UVa, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
Everyone gets

There aren't too many ways to divide up the current powers. I'm not so sure that ESPN needs or wants to pay for Oklahoma. They have paid handsomely to hold onto to Texas. If ESPN has Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech they control DFW. At that point OU is redundant and if the price for OU is OSU then it is doubly redundant. And there's the angle that Texas really regains a full upper hand with the move. Baylor and T.C.U. no longer carry the same brand they have. Oklahoma is retained for the RRR, but not as an SEC member which does help to keep some Texas recruits at home. ESPN doesn't have to wonder about how to position Oklahoma State or Kansas State if it works this way.

T.C.U. and Baylor become the schools transferred to the ACC. ESPN still owns all of the P5 properties in Texas. T.C.U. and Baylor give them solid enough sports properties, the DFW demographic for the ACC and part of Houston. N.D. remains a partial for now. Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and F.S.U. get extra football help with those 2 and yet both bring decent hoops and baseball.

Oklahoma and Kansas join the Big 10.

SEC:
Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Wake Forest.
Baylor, Florida State, Miami, T.C.U.
* Notre Dame

Big 10:
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma

There's your likeliest solution.

Texas can play both Notre Dame and Oklahoma if they wish since their main rivals will be essentially in division. Notre Dame can play Texas and a California school if they wish and still have 3 more games to schedule Navy, a Deep South school, and play Stanford.
01-20-2020 11:20 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-20-2020 11:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  There aren't too many ways to divide up the current powers. I'm not so sure that ESPN needs or wants to pay for Oklahoma. They have paid handsomely to hold onto to Texas. If ESPN has Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech they control DFW. At that point OU is redundant and if the price for OU is OSU then it is doubly redundant. And there's the angle that Texas really regains a full upper hand with the move. Baylor and T.C.U. no longer carry the same brand they have. Oklahoma is retained for the RRR, but not as an SEC member which does help to keep some Texas recruits at home. ESPN doesn't have to wonder about how to position Oklahoma State or Kansas State if it works this way.

T.C.U. and Baylor become the schools transferred to the ACC. ESPN still owns all of the P5 properties in Texas. T.C.U. and Baylor give them solid enough sports properties, the DFW demographic for the ACC and part of Houston. N.D. remains a partial for now. Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and F.S.U. get extra football help with those 2 and yet both bring decent hoops and baseball.

Oklahoma and Kansas join the Big 10.

SEC:
Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Wake Forest.
Baylor, Florida State, Miami, T.C.U.
* Notre Dame

Big 10:
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma

There's your likeliest solution.

Texas can play both Notre Dame and Oklahoma if they wish since their main rivals will be essentially in division. Notre Dame can play Texas and a California school if they wish and still have 3 more games to schedule Navy, a Deep South school, and play Stanford.

I still don't get the value of adding TCU and Baylor to the ACC. Frankly, I think that if those schools play mostly opponents that no one in Texas really cares about, their recruiting will take a big hit. It might anyway, if they are separated from UT, TT and A&M without leaving the Big XII. And I doubt that two mediocre teams from outside the southeast will excite ACC fans much either.

EDIT: If the alignments shown above are intended to be divisions, such that there would be semifinal games added to a Conference Championship Tournament, then the ACC need not go to 16. They could instead add just one team and have three divisions of five with a wild card in the CCT. For geographic balance as well as restoring old rivalries, that could be West Virginia (which the Big XII would probably rather give up than TCU or Baylor).
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2020 03:34 PM by ken d.)
01-21-2020 01:03 PM
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Post: #63
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  People still look at Texas politics through the lens of the early 90s when the B12 was formed.

But things have changed.

West Texas Populism is no longer a political force and Bob Bullock and Anne Richards aren’t in charge anymore. A UT grad lives in the governors mansion and the LTG is a Maryland Native who went to UMBC so he doesn’t care at all about Texas college football.

Given that truth, the idea that UT HAS to take a certain school with them to avoid political reprisals is simply not true anymore even if their fans are clinging to it as a last desperate hope (and why wouldn’t they? What other choice do they have?)

Truth is, if UT felt free to demand anyone tag along it would be Rice. A historic opponent with great academics and of course a free recruiting trip to Houston every other year against an opponent that will never beat them in anything except baseball and D&D.

Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.
01-21-2020 02:35 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #64
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  People still look at Texas politics through the lens of the early 90s when the B12 was formed.

But things have changed.

West Texas Populism is no longer a political force and Bob Bullock and Anne Richards aren’t in charge anymore. A UT grad lives in the governors mansion and the LTG is a Maryland Native who went to UMBC so he doesn’t care at all about Texas college football.

Given that truth, the idea that UT HAS to take a certain school with them to avoid political reprisals is simply not true anymore even if their fans are clinging to it as a last desperate hope (and why wouldn’t they? What other choice do they have?)

Truth is, if UT felt free to demand anyone tag along it would be Rice. A historic opponent with great academics and of course a free recruiting trip to Houston every other year against an opponent that will never beat them in anything except baseball and D&D.

Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Why doesn't Texas just limit enrollment to a certain number?
01-21-2020 09:44 PM
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10thMountain Offline
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Post: #65
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  People still look at Texas politics through the lens of the early 90s when the B12 was formed.

But things have changed.

West Texas Populism is no longer a political force and Bob Bullock and Anne Richards aren’t in charge anymore. A UT grad lives in the governors mansion and the LTG is a Maryland Native who went to UMBC so he doesn’t care at all about Texas college football.

Given that truth, the idea that UT HAS to take a certain school with them to avoid political reprisals is simply not true anymore even if their fans are clinging to it as a last desperate hope (and why wouldn’t they? What other choice do they have?)

Truth is, if UT felt free to demand anyone tag along it would be Rice. A historic opponent with great academics and of course a free recruiting trip to Houston every other year against an opponent that will never beat them in anything except baseball and D&D.

Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Sounds like you’re stuck with them like OU is stuck with OSU.
01-21-2020 10:39 PM
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Post: #66
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-21-2020 09:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  People still look at Texas politics through the lens of the early 90s when the B12 was formed.

But things have changed.

West Texas Populism is no longer a political force and Bob Bullock and Anne Richards aren’t in charge anymore. A UT grad lives in the governors mansion and the LTG is a Maryland Native who went to UMBC so he doesn’t care at all about Texas college football.

Given that truth, the idea that UT HAS to take a certain school with them to avoid political reprisals is simply not true anymore even if their fans are clinging to it as a last desperate hope (and why wouldn’t they? What other choice do they have?)

Truth is, if UT felt free to demand anyone tag along it would be Rice. A historic opponent with great academics and of course a free recruiting trip to Houston every other year against an opponent that will never beat them in anything except baseball and D&D.

Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Why doesn't Texas just limit enrollment to a certain number?

Texas has kept its enrollment to around 50,000 since the early 80s. Texas A&M had frozen theirs around 45,000 since the mid 90s. But Governor Perry was listening to a guy who wanted both to go to around 75,000. Texas fought it tooth and nail. A&M accepted it and jumped to around 55,000 in just 2 or 3 years. With Perry gone, the pressure isn't as bad, but its still there. Everyone wants to get into Texas or Texas A&M and most students can't.
01-21-2020 10:57 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #67
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-21-2020 10:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 09:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  People still look at Texas politics through the lens of the early 90s when the B12 was formed.

But things have changed.

West Texas Populism is no longer a political force and Bob Bullock and Anne Richards aren’t in charge anymore. A UT grad lives in the governors mansion and the LTG is a Maryland Native who went to UMBC so he doesn’t care at all about Texas college football.

Given that truth, the idea that UT HAS to take a certain school with them to avoid political reprisals is simply not true anymore even if their fans are clinging to it as a last desperate hope (and why wouldn’t they? What other choice do they have?)

Truth is, if UT felt free to demand anyone tag along it would be Rice. A historic opponent with great academics and of course a free recruiting trip to Houston every other year against an opponent that will never beat them in anything except baseball and D&D.

Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Why doesn't Texas just limit enrollment to a certain number?

Texas has kept its enrollment to around 50,000 since the early 80s. Texas A&M had frozen theirs around 45,000 since the mid 90s. But Governor Perry was listening to a guy who wanted both to go to around 75,000. Texas fought it tooth and nail. A&M accepted it and jumped to around 55,000 in just 2 or 3 years. With Perry gone, the pressure isn't as bad, but its still there. Everyone wants to get into Texas or Texas A&M and most students can't.

That's a B1G sized school.
Carolina has about 18,000 UG students (which is about 40% more that when I graduated).
01-22-2020 05:43 AM
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XLance Offline
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RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-21-2020 01:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 11:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  There aren't too many ways to divide up the current powers. I'm not so sure that ESPN needs or wants to pay for Oklahoma. They have paid handsomely to hold onto to Texas. If ESPN has Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech they control DFW. At that point OU is redundant and if the price for OU is OSU then it is doubly redundant. And there's the angle that Texas really regains a full upper hand with the move. Baylor and T.C.U. no longer carry the same brand they have. Oklahoma is retained for the RRR, but not as an SEC member which does help to keep some Texas recruits at home. ESPN doesn't have to wonder about how to position Oklahoma State or Kansas State if it works this way.

T.C.U. and Baylor become the schools transferred to the ACC. ESPN still owns all of the P5 properties in Texas. T.C.U. and Baylor give them solid enough sports properties, the DFW demographic for the ACC and part of Houston. N.D. remains a partial for now. Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and F.S.U. get extra football help with those 2 and yet both bring decent hoops and baseball.

Oklahoma and Kansas join the Big 10.

SEC:
Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Wake Forest.
Baylor, Florida State, Miami, T.C.U.
* Notre Dame

Big 10:
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma

There's your likeliest solution.

Texas can play both Notre Dame and Oklahoma if they wish since their main rivals will be essentially in division. Notre Dame can play Texas and a California school if they wish and still have 3 more games to schedule Navy, a Deep South school, and play Stanford.

I still don't get the value of adding TCU and Baylor to the ACC. Frankly, I think that if those schools play mostly opponents that no one in Texas really cares about, their recruiting will take a big hit. It might anyway, if they are separated from UT, TT and A&M without leaving the Big XII. And I doubt that two mediocre teams from outside the southeast will excite ACC fans much either.

EDIT: If the alignments shown above are intended to be divisions, such that there would be semifinal games added to a Conference Championship Tournament, then the ACC need not go to 16. They could instead add just one team and have three divisions of five with a wild card in the CCT. For geographic balance as well as restoring old rivalries, that could be West Virginia (which the Big XII would probably rather give up than TCU or Baylor).

Several years ago you would never see a scenario that excluded the PAC. What you would see is a P4 with 16 teams stuffed into 4 conferences to make things come out even.
Now what we start to see is the PAC is being excluded, because nobody wants to see the value of the Big 12 ( which is necessary to build the value of the PAC ) to head west. So what we now see are 16 teams stuffed into 3 conferences where all of the Big 12's value will reside.
So if we are to have a P4, either Texas (and friends) or Oklahoma and Kansas and a few others will have to head to the PAC.
If we keep a P5, then we need to start looking at scenarios that move value from the ESPN controlled SEC to the ESPN controlled Big 12 (maybe Missouri and Arkansas ?)
The PAC will have to sell their network, and properly promoted the conference could make money especially if they added value to the east.

Just food for thought
01-22-2020 06:29 AM
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Post: #69
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-22-2020 05:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 10:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 09:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Why doesn't Texas just limit enrollment to a certain number?

Texas has kept its enrollment to around 50,000 since the early 80s. Texas A&M had frozen theirs around 45,000 since the mid 90s. But Governor Perry was listening to a guy who wanted both to go to around 75,000. Texas fought it tooth and nail. A&M accepted it and jumped to around 55,000 in just 2 or 3 years. With Perry gone, the pressure isn't as bad, but its still there. Everyone wants to get into Texas or Texas A&M and most students can't.

That's a B1G sized school.
Carolina has about 18,000 UG students (which is about 40% more that when I graduated).

That's graduate and undergraduate. Its about 20-25% graduate. Texas grew from about 20,000 to 40,000 in the 60s, stayed around 40k for a decade and then shot up to 50,000 in 2 or 3 years as the state boomed in late 70s/early 80s. Back in those days before mass computerization, administratively it was kind of a mess in the mid to late 80s as it grew too fast.

For a number of years, Texas was the largest university in the nation. Finally Arizona St. shot through the 50k barrier. I think Ohio St. has grown to over 50k. And UCF is massive. Texas A&M as I said, recently jumped up to about 55k.
01-22-2020 10:06 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-22-2020 10:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-22-2020 05:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 10:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 09:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Why doesn't Texas just limit enrollment to a certain number?

Texas has kept its enrollment to around 50,000 since the early 80s. Texas A&M had frozen theirs around 45,000 since the mid 90s. But Governor Perry was listening to a guy who wanted both to go to around 75,000. Texas fought it tooth and nail. A&M accepted it and jumped to around 55,000 in just 2 or 3 years. With Perry gone, the pressure isn't as bad, but its still there. Everyone wants to get into Texas or Texas A&M and most students can't.

That's a B1G sized school.
Carolina has about 18,000 UG students (which is about 40% more that when I graduated).

That's graduate and undergraduate. Its about 20-25% graduate. Texas grew from about 20,000 to 40,000 in the 60s, stayed around 40k for a decade and then shot up to 50,000 in 2 or 3 years as the state boomed in late 70s/early 80s. Back in those days before mass computerization, administratively it was kind of a mess in the mid to late 80s as it grew too fast.

For a number of years, Texas was the largest university in the nation. Finally Arizona St. shot through the 50k barrier. I think Ohio St. has grown to over 50k. And UCF is massive. Texas A&M as I said, recently jumped up to about 55k.

I read somewhere that Tech expects to reach the 40,000 mark in UG this year. Is that number correct?
01-22-2020 10:14 AM
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Post: #71
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-22-2020 10:14 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(01-22-2020 10:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-22-2020 05:43 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 10:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 09:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  Why doesn't Texas just limit enrollment to a certain number?

Texas has kept its enrollment to around 50,000 since the early 80s. Texas A&M had frozen theirs around 45,000 since the mid 90s. But Governor Perry was listening to a guy who wanted both to go to around 75,000. Texas fought it tooth and nail. A&M accepted it and jumped to around 55,000 in just 2 or 3 years. With Perry gone, the pressure isn't as bad, but its still there. Everyone wants to get into Texas or Texas A&M and most students can't.

That's a B1G sized school.
Carolina has about 18,000 UG students (which is about 40% more that when I graduated).

That's graduate and undergraduate. Its about 20-25% graduate. Texas grew from about 20,000 to 40,000 in the 60s, stayed around 40k for a decade and then shot up to 50,000 in 2 or 3 years as the state boomed in late 70s/early 80s. Back in those days before mass computerization, administratively it was kind of a mess in the mid to late 80s as it grew too fast.

For a number of years, Texas was the largest university in the nation. Finally Arizona St. shot through the 50k barrier. I think Ohio St. has grown to over 50k. And UCF is massive. Texas A&M as I said, recently jumped up to about 55k.

I read somewhere that Tech expects to reach the 40,000 mark in UG this year. Is that number correct?

Sounds like total students, not just undergraduates.
01-22-2020 01:59 PM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
Let's consider the prospects of the Big 12 being raided. It would certainly benefit each of the remaining Power 5 if there was only a Power 4 and I'm going to assume for this thread the existing ACC GOR and they're off limits.

If you take Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12, they're not a Power 5 conference anymore. They could raid the AAC and/or others but they're more a GOR. Maybe even Texas alone would be enough. The Pac-12 would have the most to gain by taking the two but would UT/UO accept? Texas seems more like a Big 10 school while Oklahoma an SEC school. Would the SEC take Texas? Would A&M be OK with it? Would the Big 10 accept Oklahoma? Could the Big 10 take Texas and the SEC take Oklahoma? If so, Oklahoma State would be an obvious team to add to keep the Oklahoma politicians happy (or they can go for West Virginia to add an Eastern presence). The Big Ten could be bold and try to raid Missouri from the SEC. Or they can take Kansas if they will go without Kansas State.

Obviously if the Big Ten expands by two to the West, Purdue moves to the East. In the SEC, if they take two western schools they could move the Alabama schools to the East and move Missouri back to the West. If it's Oklahoma and West Virginia they could just add West Virginia to the East and Oklahoma to the West but they'd still have the problem of Missouri in the East.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2020 07:53 PM by schmolik.)
02-12-2020 12:25 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #73
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-14-2020 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 11:29 AM)bullet Wrote:  20 basically forces you to go to an unproven pod system and 9 conference games. It puts the conference's stability at risk gambling that fans will understand pods.

In addition to drastically reducing the number of football games between longtime conference mates -- for example, Big Ten western teams would rarely see Ohio State in their own stadium in a 20 team conference -- the most important risk from the WAC-16 is that when a conference becomes oversized, there are enough teams for half the league to have a critical mass in a breakaway. And that's a risk that some schools might regret several years after voting in favor of a big expansion.

Minnesota and others might be unhappy now about having fewer games with core Big Ten teams from farther east, but they'd be far more unhappy if there was a critical mass of 10 or more in the eastern time zone that left the "western" teams, or if any group of 10 left the "Big Twenty" after deciding they were a lot more valuable than the other 10.

I think you can make a case that conferences won't go past 16 members because the teams needed by the SEC and B1G to grow that much aren't valuable enough that ESPN, FOX et al would be willing to pay them big boy money.

What you can't make a case for is that they can't do it because some members won't be willing to accept it because they will lose long standing rivalry games against schools that wind up in a different division. That simply doesn't need to happen. Accomodating those members would be ridiculously easy.

Just as an exercise, I added 6 teams to each of the B1G and SEC from the ACC and the Big XII. I am open to the idea that there might be more rivalries that need to be protected than the few I identified. I have no illusions that either conference would select the new members in my examples, or that those schools would be willing to leave their current conference, or that ESPN would pony up the money to make it happen. My intent was only to see how big a problem would result from separating schools from the opponents that they want to play often.

These are the 20 team conferences I came up with. New schools are highlighted in bold.

B1G:
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska
Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois
Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers and Miami
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Missouri
LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky
Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State


In this example, I identified four rivalry games between teams in different five team pods that must be protected: Michigan-Michigan State and Florida State-Miami in the B1G, and Alabama-Ole Miss and Georgia-Auburn in the SEC.

I doubt that the westernmost teams in the B1G really care how often they get to play schools in the MSU/PSU division or the Clemson/FSU division. If you are playing a 9 game schedule, like the B1G already does, you could set up a schedule in which they play all four pod opponents, three opponents from the neighboring (Ohio State/Michigan) pod, and one game each against each of the other two pods.

But even if the SEC retains an eight game league schedule, there wouldn't be any games which both parties want to play every year that couldn't be accomodated.

So, scheduling is not the problem.
02-12-2020 07:33 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
When the Big 12 GOR comes near its end in the mid 2020s we could very well see a shuffle. If the Big Ten and or SEC can’t get what they want then we will see them wait until 2037 when more inventory becomes available at the close of the ACC GOR.

I don’t think either league can grab both Texas and Oklahoma without having to take companion schools.

The Big Ten will try for Oklahoma and Kansas as a pair.

The SEC can choose to either target Texas/TTU or Okla/Ok St. or they take the Oklahoma pair in the 2020s, and revisit adding Texas again in the 2030s.
02-12-2020 08:31 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #75
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(02-12-2020 08:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The Big Ten will try for Oklahoma and Kansas as a pair.

The SEC can choose to either target Texas/TTU or Okla/Ok St. or they take the Oklahoma pair in the 2020s, and revisit adding Texas again in the 2030s.

There's no point in the Big Ten adding Kansas/Oklahoma. If Texas isn't included, I don't see any other reason for them to expand (well Notre Dame).

And Texas Tech is worthless as a second school with Texas. They should take Oklahoma as the second. Or they can't take Oklahoma because Oklahoma can't go without Oklahoma State, Kansas (and if they can't go without Kansas State, West Virginia).
02-12-2020 08:54 PM
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Post: #76
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
We might be better off should Kansas and Oklahoma go to the SEC, if the following:

- The Big Ten opens up the mid-afternoon kickoff time slot in another region by taking two AAU schools in the Mountain Time Zone

- Texas and the PAC come to an agreement where the PAC would gain access to four new states in a new time zone, while still keeping a presence in the Centennial state and making the Rocky Mountain Rivalry a PAC-B1G game

- The Big Ten and PAC sign a major scheduling agreement that allows for regular season games in states important to recruiting like Texas, Colorado, California and Arizona

I think the potential is there to have a mutually beneficial relationship between the PAC, Texas and the Big Ten and avoids a lot of potential political hang-ups in the Big 12 states. Yes, it's an off-the-wall idea but something needs to be done to elevate the national profiles of two conferences. If it avoids going past 16 then it'd be worth it.


Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State
Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Texas Tech
Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State

Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan
Northwestern, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue
Indiana, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers
02-13-2020 05:42 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #77
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(02-12-2020 08:54 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(02-12-2020 08:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The Big Ten will try for Oklahoma and Kansas as a pair.

The SEC can choose to either target Texas/TTU or Okla/Ok St. or they take the Oklahoma pair in the 2020s, and revisit adding Texas again in the 2030s.

There's no point in the Big Ten adding Kansas/Oklahoma. If Texas isn't included, I don't see any other reason for them to expand (well Notre Dame).

And Texas Tech is worthless as a second school with Texas. They should take Oklahoma as the second. Or they can't take Oklahoma because Oklahoma can't go without Oklahoma State, Kansas (and if they can't go without Kansas State, West Virginia).

Easy newbie—it’s a pretty well agreed upon fact that there are about 5 schools in the ACC/Big 12 that could make the SEC or Big Ten more money:

ND
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida St
Clemson

Oklahoma is very much a program that the Big Ten would like to help anchor their weaker West Division. Kansas would be the companion school because they are AAU, bring in a new market, and are a basketball blue blood. Oklahoma St would never get a Big Ten offer due to academics and the fact that they would duplicate a small market.

TTU, Okla St, and Kansas are not the types of schools that make the Big Ten or SEC money but they are the types of schools they might have to bring in to accommodate one of the big fish and ease the complications of state politics.
02-13-2020 11:16 AM
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texoma Offline
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Post: #78
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(01-21-2020 10:39 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  
(01-21-2020 02:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-20-2020 05:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  People still look at Texas politics through the lens of the early 90s when the B12 was formed.

But things have changed.

West Texas Populism is no longer a political force and Bob Bullock and Anne Richards aren’t in charge anymore. A UT grad lives in the governors mansion and the LTG is a Maryland Native who went to UMBC so he doesn’t care at all about Texas college football.

Given that truth, the idea that UT HAS to take a certain school with them to avoid political reprisals is simply not true anymore even if their fans are clinging to it as a last desperate hope (and why wouldn’t they? What other choice do they have?)

Truth is, if UT felt free to demand anyone tag along it would be Rice. A historic opponent with great academics and of course a free recruiting trip to Houston every other year against an opponent that will never beat them in anything except baseball and D&D.

Thanks for the insight.
BTW Rice and Wake Forest are about the same size.

False insight. Texas Tech and Baylor don't have the enormous power in the legislature they had back then, but Tech still is a major force. They control West Texas and I've read they have the largest alumni base in DFW, bigger than Texas or Texas A&M (who draw from around the state while Texas Tech is West Texas and DFW). Even 40+ years ago, my DFW HS had more students go to Tech than any other 4 year school.

Leaving Tech behind would just alienate too many people in the legislature. It would also tend to hurt Texas Tech's effort to improve its academic reputation. That is a goal of Texas for two reasons: 1) It creates more of a critical mass, helping everyone; and 2) If Texas Tech is more attractive to students, it decreases political pressure on Texas to expand its number of students to a figure they don't think is manageable.

Sounds like you’re stuck with them like OU is stuck with OSU.

Sorry, but you are wrong, OU is not stuck with OSU.
02-13-2020 11:35 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #79
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(02-12-2020 07:33 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 11:29 AM)bullet Wrote:  20 basically forces you to go to an unproven pod system and 9 conference games. It puts the conference's stability at risk gambling that fans will understand pods.

In addition to drastically reducing the number of football games between longtime conference mates -- for example, Big Ten western teams would rarely see Ohio State in their own stadium in a 20 team conference -- the most important risk from the WAC-16 is that when a conference becomes oversized, there are enough teams for half the league to have a critical mass in a breakaway. And that's a risk that some schools might regret several years after voting in favor of a big expansion.

Minnesota and others might be unhappy now about having fewer games with core Big Ten teams from farther east, but they'd be far more unhappy if there was a critical mass of 10 or more in the eastern time zone that left the "western" teams, or if any group of 10 left the "Big Twenty" after deciding they were a lot more valuable than the other 10.

I think you can make a case that conferences won't go past 16 members because the teams needed by the SEC and B1G to grow that much aren't valuable enough that ESPN, FOX et al would be willing to pay them big boy money.

What you can't make a case for is that they can't do it because some members won't be willing to accept it because they will lose long standing rivalry games against schools that wind up in a different division. That simply doesn't need to happen. Accomodating those members would be ridiculously easy.

Just as an exercise, I added 6 teams to each of the B1G and SEC from the ACC and the Big XII. I am open to the idea that there might be more rivalries that need to be protected than the few I identified. I have no illusions that either conference would select the new members in my examples, or that those schools would be willing to leave their current conference, or that ESPN would pony up the money to make it happen. My intent was only to see how big a problem would result from separating schools from the opponents that they want to play often.

These are the 20 team conferences I came up with. New schools are highlighted in bold.

B1G:
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska
Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois
Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers and Miami
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Missouri
LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky
Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State


In this example, I identified four rivalry games between teams in different five team pods that must be protected: Michigan-Michigan State and Florida State-Miami in the B1G, and Alabama-Ole Miss and Georgia-Auburn in the SEC.

I doubt that the westernmost teams in the B1G really care how often they get to play schools in the MSU/PSU division or the Clemson/FSU division. If you are playing a 9 game schedule, like the B1G already does, you could set up a schedule in which they play all four pod opponents, three opponents from the neighboring (Ohio State/Michigan) pod, and one game each against each of the other two pods.

But even if the SEC retains an eight game league schedule, there wouldn't be any games which both parties want to play every year that couldn't be accomodated.

So, scheduling is not the problem.

If you do games both schools want to play, Ohio St. wouldn't play anyone but Michigan. But Ohio St. is important to a lot of schools. Same for Alabama in the SEC. One really obvious flaw in your scheme is Georgia. Conference schedule is 9 games. Playing Auburn goes to 10 and Georgia Tech goes to 11. You have completely eliminated their scheduling flexibility.

Its a good effort, but you can't design 5 team groups in the SEC that aren't non-starters for some of the schools. And playing Ohio St. and Michigan only 2 in 6 years is a non-starter for the Big 10 schools not in their division.

The most you can do without a full scale revolt is 18. And that assumes that pods work. You do a 4-5-4-5. That means you only have 8 games pre-determined. That allows for more cross division discretionary games. And for the Big 10, the division with Ohio St. and Michigan rotates among former Big 10 schools. For example:
A. Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern
B. Illinois, Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio St.
C. Indiana, Purdue, Penn St., Rutgers, Maryland
D. North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida St.

Two years its A/B and C/D. Then two years its A/D and B/C. Everybody from the old Big 10 gets Ohio St. and Michigan every other year. You could use a 9th game to rotate with the opposite division. Teams in the 5 team divisions would play teams in the opposite 5 team division home and away over 10 years. In the 4 team divisions it would be 8 years (ie Ohio St. would, by year, play UNC, @UVA, GT, @FSU, @UNC, UVA, @GT, FSU). That still allows a 10th game if you want to play some rival more frequently.
02-13-2020 11:56 AM
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Post: #80
RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024
(02-13-2020 11:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-12-2020 07:33 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-14-2020 11:29 AM)bullet Wrote:  20 basically forces you to go to an unproven pod system and 9 conference games. It puts the conference's stability at risk gambling that fans will understand pods.

In addition to drastically reducing the number of football games between longtime conference mates -- for example, Big Ten western teams would rarely see Ohio State in their own stadium in a 20 team conference -- the most important risk from the WAC-16 is that when a conference becomes oversized, there are enough teams for half the league to have a critical mass in a breakaway. And that's a risk that some schools might regret several years after voting in favor of a big expansion.

Minnesota and others might be unhappy now about having fewer games with core Big Ten teams from farther east, but they'd be far more unhappy if there was a critical mass of 10 or more in the eastern time zone that left the "western" teams, or if any group of 10 left the "Big Twenty" after deciding they were a lot more valuable than the other 10.

I think you can make a case that conferences won't go past 16 members because the teams needed by the SEC and B1G to grow that much aren't valuable enough that ESPN, FOX et al would be willing to pay them big boy money.

What you can't make a case for is that they can't do it because some members won't be willing to accept it because they will lose long standing rivalry games against schools that wind up in a different division. That simply doesn't need to happen. Accomodating those members would be ridiculously easy.

Just as an exercise, I added 6 teams to each of the B1G and SEC from the ACC and the Big XII. I am open to the idea that there might be more rivalries that need to be protected than the few I identified. I have no illusions that either conference would select the new members in my examples, or that those schools would be willing to leave their current conference, or that ESPN would pony up the money to make it happen. My intent was only to see how big a problem would result from separating schools from the opponents that they want to play often.

These are the 20 team conferences I came up with. New schools are highlighted in bold.

B1G:
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska
Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois
Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers and Miami
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Missouri
LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky
Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State


In this example, I identified four rivalry games between teams in different five team pods that must be protected: Michigan-Michigan State and Florida State-Miami in the B1G, and Alabama-Ole Miss and Georgia-Auburn in the SEC.

I doubt that the westernmost teams in the B1G really care how often they get to play schools in the MSU/PSU division or the Clemson/FSU division. If you are playing a 9 game schedule, like the B1G already does, you could set up a schedule in which they play all four pod opponents, three opponents from the neighboring (Ohio State/Michigan) pod, and one game each against each of the other two pods.

But even if the SEC retains an eight game league schedule, there wouldn't be any games which both parties want to play every year that couldn't be accomodated.

So, scheduling is not the problem.

If you do games both schools want to play, Ohio St. wouldn't play anyone but Michigan. But Ohio St. is important to a lot of schools. Same for Alabama in the SEC. One really obvious flaw in your scheme is Georgia. Conference schedule is 9 games. Playing Auburn goes to 10 and Georgia Tech goes to 11. You have completely eliminated their scheduling flexibility.

Its a good effort, but you can't design 5 team groups in the SEC that aren't non-starters for some of the schools. And playing Ohio St. and Michigan only 2 in 6 years is a non-starter for the Big 10 schools not in their division.

The most you can do without a full scale revolt is 18. And that assumes that pods work. You do a 4-5-4-5. That means you only have 8 games pre-determined. That allows for more cross division discretionary games. And for the Big 10, the division with Ohio St. and Michigan rotates among former Big 10 schools. For example:
A. Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern
B. Illinois, Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio St.
C. Indiana, Purdue, Penn St., Rutgers, Maryland
D. North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida St.

Two years its A/B and C/D. Then two years its A/D and B/C. Everybody from the old Big 10 gets Ohio St. and Michigan every other year. You could use a 9th game to rotate with the opposite division. Teams in the 5 team divisions would play teams in the opposite 5 team division home and away over 10 years. In the 4 team divisions it would be 8 years (ie Ohio St. would, by year, play UNC, @UVA, GT, @FSU, @UNC, UVA, @GT, FSU). That still allows a 10th game if you want to play some rival more frequently.

He also blew a gasket with Florida / Florida State which is more of a rivalry than F.S.U. / Miami.
02-13-2020 11:59 AM
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