(01-07-2020 02:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I don't see a scenario where an American or Mountain West school would go Independent.

UConn is Basketball, and they had the opportunity to join essentially a "P5" basketball conference in the Big East. For schools in the American and Mountain West, they are already in the highest Basketball conference that is not P5 and any non-P5 membership option means downgrading your basketball.

BYU's move looks to have been a bit of a downgrade, as besides Gonzaga (which in effect is a Big East school unfortunately located 1400 miles too far West) the league plays in glorified high school gyms. BYU consoles itself with the religious association, and has been able to set up a pseudo P5 football schedule in most years, much higher SoS than other G5 schools. But it's not a path open to other schools.

For San Diego State only membership in a true power conference would be acceptable, as a Big West membership is death to the Basketball program (look at how UC Santa Barbara with plenty of financial resources to tap has dropped from high mid-majors often hovering around top 25 rankings in the 90's to well below the top 150 programs today). Boise State the same, although they are more a football school. There simply are no good Olympic sports options in the West, which effectively kills the option. (Long run Colorado State is likely to join that western list, and one does have to keep an eye on UNLV to see if they ever develop into anything athletically or academic)

Hawaii is a possibility posters bring up -given they already are in a separate Olympic conference-, but the willingness of power programs to visit the Islands has waned so much that they need the MWC. If they dropped out even the MWC schools would mostly drop them from the schedule, given how much of a hassle they are to visit.

For schools in the American I would add Memphis to the list Frank the Tank gave. Their academic index is so dreadful they failed to get a Rose in the B12 search, and Carnegie dropped them a category (same for East Carolina). Central Florida might be the next school to get to that point as well. But after the P5 and the Big East, the American is the strongest Basketball conference, seemingly locked into 3 bids. Losing UConn, doesn't help, but Wichita State gave them instant depth alongside Cincy, Houston and Memphis, plus sometimes strong SMU and Temple. There is no place to park your Olympics that comes close, unless maybe the A10 accepts you. And the Football contract is probably as good as they can expect. So it would be a risky proposition.

For these reasons the top schools will remain in the twilight zone of very high non-power for the foreseeable future.

If any shakeup comes, it will be from schools leaving the Big 12, leading the remnasts to pick up the strongest G5 schools to move into a slightly higher twilight zone on the edge of "P4" status.

Note: Frank makes a good point about a G5 access to an 8 team playoff, as that would take the sting out of being G5 for the highest teams there -- I think you'd see 3 or 4 MWC schools invest heavily in their programs if that option came open (not just Boise State).

Just chiming in to correct the bolded. Memphis has always been R2 and has risen within the category. They were six schools below the R1 cutoff this last time around. Using the same metrics (which you can't do as other schools are investing in research as well), the school is spending R1 $ as of Dec 1, 2019. With the commitments and programs scheduled to come online within the next year, they are projecting to be at least 20 spots above the cutoff for the next classification. The stated goal was R1 within 5 years and looks as if it will be obtained within 3. Memphis also received tier 1 status from USNWR this year for the first time. I think it's a technicality, but the school claims it (public university ratings). The endowment is the thing really lacking and making slow progress. If a DO program at the Jackson campus gets approved, it would help. Academics has always been a black eye, but the improvement within the last five years has been surprising...to me at least. They are heading in the right direction since getting out from under the TBR thumb by establishing their own BOT. It still may too little too late, but they aren't regressing as far as I can tell.

(01-09-2020 08:17 AM)esayem Wrote:  So with three wildcards, the G5 and Independent teams theoretically have a chance. Exhibit A: Notre Dame.

If it's a playoff spot for the highest ranked team among all G5 and independent teams, then effectively there's a playoff spot available to the best G5 team only in seasons when Notre Dame isn't very good.

Look at the CFP seasons so far, and how this would have played out in your preferred 8-team playoff format. The pattern is that Notre Dame would get the G5/indy playoff spot in any year in which the Irish have two or fewer losses.

2019: Notre Dame (10-2) ranked #15 in final committee ranking. Highest G5 team (Memphis) ranked #17. Notre Dame gets the playoff spot.

2018: Notre Dame (12-0) ranked #3, highest G5 team (UCF) ranked #8. Notre Dame gets playoff spot reserved for G5/indy teams, UCF doesn't get in because the 3 highest-ranked at-large teams are #3, 5, and 7.

2017: Notre Dame (9-3) ranked #14, highest G5 team (UCF) ranked #12. UCF gets the playoff spot.

2016: Notre Dame (4-8) unranked, highest G5 team (Western Michigan) ranked #15. WMU gets the playoff spot.

2015: Notre Dame (10-2) ranked #8, highest G5 team (Houston) ranked #18. Notre Dame gets the playoff spot.

2014: Notre Dame (7-5) unranked, highest G5 team (Boise State) ranked #20. Boise State gets the playoff spot.

Seems like Notre Dame would be in nearly every year. Just put the best 6 or 8 in.

(01-09-2020 02:02 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 08:17 AM)esayem Wrote:  So with three wildcards, the G5 and Independent teams theoretically have a chance. Exhibit A: Notre Dame.

If it's a playoff spot for the highest ranked team among all G5 and independent teams, then effectively there's a playoff spot available to the best G5 team only in seasons when Notre Dame isn't very good.

Look at the CFP seasons so far, and how this would have played out in your preferred 8-team playoff format. The pattern is that Notre Dame would get the G5/indy playoff spot in any year in which the Irish have two or fewer losses.

2019: Notre Dame (10-2) ranked #15 in final committee ranking. Highest G5 team (Memphis) ranked #17. Notre Dame gets the playoff spot.

2018: Notre Dame (12-0) ranked #3, highest G5 team (UCF) ranked #8. Notre Dame gets playoff spot reserved for G5/indy teams, UCF doesn't get in because the 3 highest-ranked at-large teams are #3, 5, and 7.

2017: Notre Dame (9-3) ranked #14, highest G5 team (UCF) ranked #12. UCF gets the playoff spot.

2016: Notre Dame (4-8) unranked, highest G5 team (Western Michigan) ranked #15. WMU gets the playoff spot.

2015: Notre Dame (10-2) ranked #8, highest G5 team (Houston) ranked #18. Notre Dame gets the playoff spot.

2014: Notre Dame (7-5) unranked, highest G5 team (Boise State) ranked #20. Boise State gets the playoff spot.

As an unbiased observer I would be fine with this.

Memphis was listed R1 a couple years ago - perhaps that was a mistake the in wikipedia article.

Their HERD numbers place them in middle to lower half of R2. And given the enrollment size the ratio is pretty low. AI is also very low.

I have nothing against Memphis, but they really need to invest about $2B more this coming decade in the institution and up their AI by quite a bit (they need to become very selective instead of open access), to get off the bad side of the power Presidents and Chancellors. (I went to a school that has similar low numbers, doesn't mean you cannot get a good education, but it's not a degree you can get respect easily from UC Berkeley, Stanford, Washington, or other top schools which make up most of P5 ... that is Memphis' problem in a nutshell)

Carnegie status and progress is discussed @ 56 min mark if anyone is interested. I didn’t attend so don’t receive updates, but do watch/skim BOT meetings to sort of keep up to date.

https://mediasite.memphis.edu/Mediasite/...cb20101a1d

(01-09-2020 02:24 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 02:02 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 08:17 AM)esayem Wrote:  So with three wildcards, the G5 and Independent teams theoretically have a chance. Exhibit A: Notre Dame.

If it's a playoff spot for the highest ranked team among all G5 and independent teams, then effectively there's a playoff spot available to the best G5 team only in seasons when Notre Dame isn't very good.

Look at the CFP seasons so far, and how this would have played out in your preferred 8-team playoff format. The pattern is that Notre Dame would get the G5/indy playoff spot in any year in which the Irish have two or fewer losses.

2019: Notre Dame (10-2) ranked #15 in final committee ranking. Highest G5 team (Memphis) ranked #17. Notre Dame gets the playoff spot.

2018: Notre Dame (12-0) ranked #3, highest G5 team (UCF) ranked #8. Notre Dame gets playoff spot reserved for G5/indy teams, UCF doesn't get in because the 3 highest-ranked at-large teams are #3, 5, and 7.

2017: Notre Dame (9-3) ranked #14, highest G5 team (UCF) ranked #12. UCF gets the playoff spot.

2016: Notre Dame (4-8) unranked, highest G5 team (Western Michigan) ranked #15. WMU gets the playoff spot.

2015: Notre Dame (10-2) ranked #8, highest G5 team (Houston) ranked #18. Notre Dame gets the playoff spot.

2014: Notre Dame (7-5) unranked, highest G5 team (Boise State) ranked #20. Boise State gets the playoff spot.

As an unbiased observer I would be fine with this.

As another neutral, independent poster, I concur.

(01-07-2020 01:01 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 12:38 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 12:20 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 10:00 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(01-06-2020 10:58 PM)46566 Wrote:  Could this work for Texas? Would the university if Texas be better off in let's say the Southland and football as a independent? Have any non picked up basketball game tonight n the Longhorn network. Maybe have a Southland game of the week to be on the Longhorn network to throw Southland a bone?

(01-06-2020 11:33 PM)46566 Wrote:  I'd figure that any game not on ESPN,2,U would be put on the Longhorn network instead of ESPN plus. The main question is would this help the Southland? For football I could see games against Baylor, TCU, tech, SMU and maybe A&M yearly. Maybe a FCS Southland game as a thanks for the help in Olympic sports. I'd figure Oklahoma would be a yearly game. That's 7 games a year not counting the smaller Texas schools in FBS. They could have deals with the Texas bowls.

The Southland?

I only chose the Southland as I didn't think the Big 12 wanted a non football Texas in the conference. It would give them a conference primarily in Texas and Louisiana. The mountain west conference would work also.

The AAC would probably take Texas Olympic sports, especially if a couple of annual football games were part of the deal and an upgrade or two in bowl affiliations.

Texas Olympic sports probably wouldn't mind a lineup of mostly Houston, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Wichita and Memphis.

Wait a second... are we actually talking about the University of Texas at Austin here?

If so, Texas would definitely mind that type of lineup. Texas has all but said publicly that they don't consider the SEC (which has multiple flagship AAU institutions plus Vandy) to be academically acceptable, so how could they ever realistically even consider the AAC or any non-P5 league?

The only way that I could see Texas going independent in football is that they get Notre Dame's actual deal: membership in a P5 conference for all sports except for football. If it's just membership in a G5 conference, then that's not going to work.

Besides, the more that I have observed Texas over the years, the more that I believe that *control* is even more important than money to that school. Being able to control schools like Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor within the Big 12 is exactly what Texas wants even if they would make more revenue as an equal member of the Big Ten or SEC.

Texas isn't a lone wolf - they actually *want* to have the life of the Big 12 under their control. 10 years ago, I didn't believe that they could pass up the additional money that they could have made in essentially any other power conference, but now I see how Texas works. In contrast, Notre Dame is totally a lone wolf - their entire school *identity* is based on independence and the belief (whether it's true or not) that they're fighting against outside forces (e.g. conferences like the Big Ten) impinging upon their liberty. Texas and ND both want power, but their respective school cultures and how they want to wield that power are very different.

Texas' president said they didn't want to fly the softball team all over the midwest. He also said they could get the same money (actually a little more) than in the Pac 12 with a similar schedule. A different president didn't want to be in the SEC where schools would take players Texas wouldn't touch for academic reasons (and some of those schools have athletic resources comparable to Texas unlike schools that might cut the corners in the Big 12).

So if control means some strong say on academic standards, controlling travel for student athletes and controlling the schedule, then yes, Texas wants control.

Being in the Big 10 doesn't make sense for everyone. And like about everyone in the Big 10, Texas is snooty with regard to academics. Not a one of those schools would move to the SEC even if the SEC was $20 million ahead.

(01-09-2020 02:30 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Memphis was listed R1 a couple years ago - perhaps that was a mistake the in wikipedia article.

Their HERD numbers place them in middle to lower half of R2. And given the enrollment size the ratio is pretty low. AI is also very low.

I have nothing against Memphis, but they really need to invest about $2B more this coming decade in the institution and up their AI by quite a bit (they need to become very selective instead of open access), to get off the bad side of the power Presidents and Chancellors. (I went to a school that has similar low numbers, doesn't mean you cannot get a good education, but it's not a degree you can get respect easily from UC Berkeley, Stanford, Washington, or other top schools which make up most of P5 ... that is Memphis' problem in a nutshell)

I suspect that was a mistake in Wiki. Not unheard of. There are a number of Big 12 and SEC schools that made Tier I recently.

Historically, some Independent football teams chose to be because they prioritized their basketball program and were in a solid league which didn’t offer the sport (Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis), or their Olympic sports conference didn’t play at the 1-A level (Army, Navy, ECU, Tulsa).

Then there were football programs like FSU, which had some solid runs in basketball before they were a football powerhouse and happened to be in a decent conference like the Metro.

UConn is similar to old school Cincinnati in a way. They are prioritizing basketball by re-joining the Big East and going Indy in football. Cincinnati could have re-joined the MAC in all-sports in the 80’s, but they were in the superior Metro Conference and kept football Indy.

(01-07-2020 10:30 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 06:14 AM)XLance Wrote:  The Big 12 might not be there after 2025.

Sure it will. If any schools leave, they’ll replenish their ranks with AAC and MWC teams.

In name only. Consider this:

Slowly but surely, the AAC is building its brand. Could it be that, when the Big XII implodes in 2025, the AAC will instead add a few of the stronger programs from among the Big XII's leftovers? If so, then the perennial bottom feeders in today's Big XII may find themselves on the outside looking in.

(01-10-2020 02:50 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 10:30 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 06:14 AM)XLance Wrote:  The Big 12 might not be there after 2025.

Sure it will. If any schools leave, they’ll replenish their ranks with AAC and MWC teams.

In name only. Consider this:

Slowly but surely, the AAC is building its brand. Could it be that, when the Big XII implodes in 2025, the AAC will instead add a few of the stronger programs from among the Big XII's leftovers? If so, then the perennial bottom feeders in today's Big XII may find themselves on the outside looking in.

In name only? Sure, as much as the AAC is the old C-USA.

The Big XII has a much better brand, tourney credits, and all the bowl contracts. Don’t worry, Cincinnati will be on page one of the replacements list.

(01-10-2020 02:50 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 10:30 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 06:14 AM)XLance Wrote:  The Big 12 might not be there after 2025.

Sure it will. If any schools leave, they’ll replenish their ranks with AAC and MWC teams.

In name only. Consider this:

Slowly but surely, the AAC is building its brand. Could it be that, when the Big XII implodes in 2025, the AAC will instead add a few of the stronger programs from among the Big XII's leftovers? If so, then the perennial bottom feeders in today's Big XII may find themselves on the outside looking in.

No. The Big 12 even without UT/OU tops the AAC in prestige.

The odds of AAC adding XII programs is 0%. Even if the XII whittles down to 3 programs, they’ll just add SMU/UH/Tulane/Memphis/Cincy/UCF/USF for a 10 team league.

A lot of the rich basketball conference history had its origins over the fact that TV for basketball wasn't regulated by the NCAA.

Thus teams like Memphis and Cincinnati struck deals with local TV to put their games on. They wanted to be aligned with other TV market universities and formed the basketball conferences to support that.

Many of the basketball schools on that tier graduated to a P5 situation. The ones left behind are mainly in the AAC or A10.

(01-08-2020 11:36 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:44 PM)esayem Wrote:  I don't see why a single G5 deserves an auto-bid in the eyes of the P5. If the P5 creates the playoff, they don’t need to make any concessions because it’s an invitational. ...

The question isn't whether any Go5 deserves it but whether there is a risk of successful anti-trust lawsuits against the arrangement.

+2, and any lawyer worth their salt would be able to shoot down the idea that "well, they could qualify by being in the top X of the rankings" would shoot it down by pointing out how the committee is populated by those with ties to the schools committing the antitrust, and use UCF's exclusion as exhibit A.

Those who rail about "why a G5 school should have an easier path than, say, Florida" lose points when faced with the reality that any G5 school would GLADLY trade places with them. Nobody forced schools to go into stronger conferences where they're handsomely rewarded for their trouble. Then using that trouble as the reason why those they won't let in the club to be excluded is pure circle logic.

It interestingly mirrors society right now in a lot of ways...

USFFan

So then Notre Dame can file an anti-trust to be considered part of the G5 and take the bid every year?

I’m sorry, it’s illogical for the G5 to argue for a playoff spot when Independent teams aren’t included. Notre Dame has made the wildcard without being in a P5 conference, they just schedule tougher.

(01-11-2020 12:22 PM)esayem Wrote:  So then Notre Dame can file an anti-trust to be considered part of the G5 and take the bid every year?

I’m sorry, it’s illogical for the G5 to argue for a playoff spot when Independent teams aren’t included. Notre Dame has made the wildcard without being in a P5 conference, they just schedule tougher.

Absolutely, if they're willing to forego the $3.19MM they're exclusively paid to be part of the P5 and instead & actually compete for that bid the same as the others...

USFFan

(01-11-2020 01:33 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 12:22 PM)esayem Wrote:  So then Notre Dame can file an anti-trust to be considered part of the G5 and take the bid every year?

I’m sorry, it’s illogical for the G5 to argue for a playoff spot when Independent teams aren’t included. Notre Dame has made the wildcard without being in a P5 conference, they just schedule tougher.

Absolutely, if they're willing to forego the $3.19MM they're exclusively paid to be part of the P5 and instead & actually compete for that bid the same as the others...

USFFan

What about BYU, Army, holy daddy big bucks Liberty, and the New England publics?

The only reason the anti-trust threat was powerful before was because the bowls were picking teams over higher rated non-power conference teams. The anti-trust threat is not as stirring this time around. They’ll be pacified with a NY6 bowl, the same as they have now.

(01-11-2020 02:17 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 01:33 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 12:22 PM)esayem Wrote:  So then Notre Dame can file an anti-trust to be considered part of the G5 and take the bid every year?

I’m sorry, it’s illogical for the G5 to argue for a playoff spot when Independent teams aren’t included. Notre Dame has made the wildcard without being in a P5 conference, they just schedule tougher.

Absolutely, if they're willing to forego the $3.19MM they're exclusively paid to be part of the P5 and instead & actually compete for that bid the same as the others...

USFFan

What about BYU, Army, holy daddy big bucks Liberty, and the New England publics?

The only reason the anti-trust threat was powerful before was because the bowls were picking teams over higher rated non-power conference teams. The anti-trust threat is not as stirring this time around. They’ll be pacified with a NY6 bowl, the same as they have now.

I'll bet you a fortune that you're wrong. In fact, I think the people in charge know it, too, which is why the 5-1-2 model is what you hear being discussed most often. Only way we'll find out is if they try your suggested pacification. I know at least 4 schools w/ > 1 million alumni (collectively) that would be first in line to file the lawsuit. And I speak from firsthand experience from one of them.

USFFan