By 2008 MWC was a top conference
Utah killed Alabama in Sugar Bowl
TCU, Utah, BYU top 10 teams
Mistake: they wouldn’t add Boise
Houston wouldn’t join MWC for whatever reason (I lived there and know)

Another question is which conference lost the most .

AAC probably lots of former P5 but it is clearly number six.

MountainWac has really took a hit in basketball and is no where near the P5 .

CUSA 3.0 should be a pretty good basketball conference and bad in football but its just bad.

The MAC and SBC have improved making the bottom four fairly close .

(01-09-2020 01:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 12:03 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 10:59 AM)Wedge Wrote:  There is no scenario here that would have prevented Utah, TCU, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville from accepting invitations to join the conferences that they are in today.

Agreed. It's really how the current non-majors move and where they end up.

The only shift that sticks out to me are the Big XII backfills. If TCU isn't in-transit to the Big East, does the urgency to bolt from the Big East change? Are TCU and West Virginia moving into the Big XII, or could someone else, like Louisville or Cincinnati have snuck in instead? BYU? And the ripple effect on the ACC backfill...

To me, it has felt like the two or three schools who could not be in the major conferences today had things gone just slightly different is that trio of TCU, WVU, and UL.

If no Louisville to the ACC, that implies no UMD to the Big Ten, and Rutgers joins Louisville with the power conference castoffs.

It doesn't imply that because instead of the Big East being the only "anointed" conference at the time of that panic, now you have the Big East AND the MWC. You had a domino effect where the Mountain West wasn't getting AQ, it resulted in a slew of teams bolting or considering to bolt, some to the Big East, who still had AQ, and then you had the Big East as the sole launchpad feeding at least the Big XII, ACC, and perhaps B1G spots.

Assume there's no reason for TCU to leave the MWC because they have equal status as the Big East. You have now TWO conferences potentially feeding these gaps, and who knows how strategic or urgent anyone is to lobby for higher spots. It's not that your cast of conspirators grow, though it does, but that, maybe, the "chatter" between schools isn't as well known. And that the strategy for those MWC schools isn't so dead-set that it's "follow the lowest hanging AQ fruit:" get into the Big East.

So, it's not that UL not going to the ACC means no UMD and Rutgers. It means, maybe this was how UL got into the Big XII, because either TCU and/or WVU didn't. So, maybe the ACC pickup is different...WVU, TCU, Cincy, UConn...who knows?

To add, let's say you give AQ to MWC. Then, take it away from both them and the Big East/AAC. Does it motivate the (successful) formation of a "best-of" conference?

(01-09-2020 01:35 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 09:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yeah, this has always been a fascinating scenario to me. Boise is a no brainer. Houston makes a ton of sense to pair with TCU too. In the short term Nevada would have been a great fit because they were quite good in 2010 and went 13-1 with Kaepernick.

If they get AQ status that still probably does stop Utah from leaving. No telling what TCU decides to do, but they probably go to the Big 12 once the offer comes. Houston and BYU would've stuck around though and the MWC wouldn't have nearly the dead weight they do now.

Utah would turn down a Pac invite? Methinks not.

Meant to say "does not stop". Sorry, that sort of changes my entire post haha.

(01-09-2020 09:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yeah, this has always been a fascinating scenario to me. Boise is a no brainer. Houston makes a ton of sense to pair with TCU too. In the short term Nevada would have been a great fit because they were quite good in 2010 and went 13-1 with Kaepernick.

If they get AQ status that still probably does stop Utah from leaving. No telling what TCU decides to do, but they probably go to the Big 12 once the offer comes. Houston and BYU would've stuck around though and the MWC wouldn't have nearly the dead weight they do now.

Not only would the MWC not have the dead weight, but the WAC would still have FBS football - so the MWC would not be the bottom FBS conference in the West.

The 9-team MWC should have invited Boise, Fresno, and Houston and added the CCG. Then, back-fill with SMU and Hawaii (or even Navy) when Utah and TCU bolt...that may have been enough to keep BYU around....and WAC football would have survived.

(01-10-2020 11:57 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 09:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Yeah, this has always been a fascinating scenario to me. Boise is a no brainer. Houston makes a ton of sense to pair with TCU too. In the short term Nevada would have been a great fit because they were quite good in 2010 and went 13-1 with Kaepernick.

If they get AQ status that still probably does stop Utah from leaving. No telling what TCU decides to do, but they probably go to the Big 12 once the offer comes. Houston and BYU would've stuck around though and the MWC wouldn't have nearly the dead weight they do now.

Not only would the MWC not have the dead weight, but the WAC would still have FBS football - so the MWC would not be the bottom FBS conference in the West.

The 9-team MWC should have invited Boise, Fresno, and Houston and added the CCG. Then, back-fill with SMU and Hawaii (or even Navy) when Utah and TCU bolt...that may have been enough to keep BYU around....and WAC football would have survived.

So digging deeper on the effects of this scenario, keeping the FB playing members of the WAC would likely lead to not bringing in Oly only members who came from the Great West. The Great West needed to be a full conference for a number of years to obtain an auto-bid to the NCAA tournaments. Would that have happened?

One side affect probably would have been Utah Valley adding FCS football as they were trying to hike the skirt up for the Big Sky. (I saw an image of a possible UVU helmet and I recall seeing plans for a FB stadium on the other side of I-15 near one of the FrontRunner stations.)

Would Denver still be an odd-duck member of the Sun Belt?

(01-10-2020 08:43 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 01:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 12:03 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 10:59 AM)Wedge Wrote:  There is no scenario here that would have prevented Utah, TCU, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville from accepting invitations to join the conferences that they are in today.

Agreed. It's really how the current non-majors move and where they end up.

The only shift that sticks out to me are the Big XII backfills. If TCU isn't in-transit to the Big East, does the urgency to bolt from the Big East change? Are TCU and West Virginia moving into the Big XII, or could someone else, like Louisville or Cincinnati have snuck in instead? BYU? And the ripple effect on the ACC backfill...

To me, it has felt like the two or three schools who could not be in the major conferences today had things gone just slightly different is that trio of TCU, WVU, and UL.

If no Louisville to the ACC, that implies no UMD to the Big Ten, and Rutgers joins Louisville with the power conference castoffs.

It doesn't imply that because instead of the Big East being the only "anointed" conference at the time of that panic, now you have the Big East AND the MWC. You had a domino effect where the Mountain West wasn't getting AQ, it resulted in a slew of teams bolting or considering to bolt, some to the Big East, who still had AQ, and then you had the Big East as the sole launchpad feeding at least the Big XII, ACC, and perhaps B1G spots.

Assume there's no reason for TCU to leave the MWC because they have equal status as the Big East. You have now TWO conferences potentially feeding these gaps, and who knows how strategic or urgent anyone is to lobby for higher spots. It's not that your cast of conspirators grow, though it does, but that, maybe, the "chatter" between schools isn't as well known. And that the strategy for those MWC schools isn't so dead-set that it's "follow the lowest hanging AQ fruit:" get into the Big East.

So, it's not that UL not going to the ACC means no UMD and Rutgers. It means, maybe this was how UL got into the Big XII, because either TCU and/or WVU didn't. So, maybe the ACC pickup is different...WVU, TCU, Cincy, UConn...who knows?

Do you think the MWC getting AQ status would prevent the Big 12 exodus? I sure don't. So you almost certainly would see TCU to the Big 12 and Utah to the Pac to pair with Colorado. Both moves are clear upgrades from the MWC, and TCU reduces its travel significantly to boot. (BYU might go indy even if the MWC somehow retained that new power conference status into the CFP era, if only because the Pac took Utah instead of them.) And there's Nebraska to the Big Ten, Missouri and A&M to the SEC, and WVU to the Big 12.

The question then is: does the Big Ten expand east? I don't see why they wouldn't, but if not, then of course UMD remains with the ACC and Rutgers and UL with the AAC.

Here’s a thought: the Big East, who was in the BCS, pulls 6 Western members in as football affiliates but they have to find a place to park the rest of their sports.

USF gets punted to the West and the 14 team football league hosts a title game.

I think the affiliates could be TCU, BYU, Utah, Houston, UCF, and Memphis.

There’d definitely be conferences out there willing to take those schools without football.