at Wichita St. (13-1), KenPom #35
at USF (8-7), KenPom #115
Cincinnati (8-6), KenPom #58
at Tulsa (9-5), KenPom #101
SMU (11-2), KenPom #76
at UCF (9-5), KenPom #102
UConn (9-5), KenPom #71
Temple (9-4), KenPom #74
USF
at Cincinnati
at UConn
ECU (6-8), KenPom #251
Houston (11-3), KenPom # 28
at SMU
at Tulane (9-5), KenPom #180
Wichita St.
at Houston

By my count, that's 16 games remaining. Honestly, I'm worried this may be a bubble team.

I see 3 probable losses (at Wichita St., at SMU, and at Houston).

I see 8 loseable games (Cincy x 2, SMU at home, at Tulsa, at UCF, at UConn, Houston at home, Wichita St. at home)

We probably have 1 unexpected loss coming.

I see us entering the conference tournament with 8 losses (a 9th loss if we don't win the conference tournament). Will this be good enough to get in?

17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

at Wichita St. (13-1), KenPom #35
at USF (8-7), KenPom #115
Cincinnati (8-6), KenPom #58
at Tulsa (9-5), KenPom #101
SMU (11-2), KenPom #76
at UCF (9-5), KenPom #102
UConn (9-5), KenPom #71
Temple (9-4), KenPom #74
USF
at Cincinnati
at UConn
ECU (6-8), KenPom #251
Houston (11-3), KenPom # 28
at SMU
at Tulane (9-5), KenPom #180
Wichita St.
at Houston

Also color-coded based on what I think the loss probability is (red being high, yellow being medium, light green being a possible loss, and dark green being very low). I only see 3 sure-fire wins.

(01-07-2020 02:45 PM)MtownTigers916 Wrote:  at Wichita St. (13-1), KenPom #35
at USF (8-7), KenPom #115
Cincinnati (8-6), KenPom #58
at Tulsa (9-5), KenPom #101
SMU (11-2), KenPom #76
at UCF (9-5), KenPom #102
UConn (9-5), KenPom #71
Temple (9-4), KenPom #74
USF
at Cincinnati
at UConn
ECU (6-8), KenPom #251
Houston (11-3), KenPom # 28
at SMU
at Tulane (9-5), KenPom #180
Wichita St.
at Houston

By my count, that's 16 games remaining. Honestly, I'm worried this may be a bubble team.

I see 3 probable losses (at Wichita St., at SMU, and at Houston).

I see 8 loseable games (Cincy x 2, SMU at home, at Tulsa, at UCF, at UConn, Houston at home, Wichita St. at home)

We probably have 1 unexpected loss coming.

I see us entering the conference tournament with 8 losses (a 9th loss if we don't win the conference tournament). Will this be good enough to get in?

Matter of perspective. Some people see 8 losable games. I see 8 winnable games.

(01-07-2020 02:53 PM)MtownTigers916 Wrote:  at Wichita St. (13-1), KenPom #35
at USF (8-7), KenPom #115
Cincinnati (8-6), KenPom #58
at Tulsa (9-5), KenPom #101
SMU (11-2), KenPom #76
at UCF (9-5), KenPom #102
UConn (9-5), KenPom #71
Temple (9-4), KenPom #74
USF
at Cincinnati
at UConn
ECU (6-8), KenPom #251
Houston (11-3), KenPom # 28
at SMU
at Tulane (9-5), KenPom #180
Wichita St.
at Houston

Also color-coded based on what I think the loss probability is (red being high, yellow being medium, light green being a possible loss, and dark green being very low). I only see 3 sure-fire wins.

Lawd have pity on us that are red/green color blind. I can't see any difference at all on that list. lol

(01-07-2020 02:55 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:45 PM)MtownTigers916 Wrote:  at Wichita St. (13-1), KenPom #35
at USF (8-7), KenPom #115
Cincinnati (8-6), KenPom #58
at Tulsa (9-5), KenPom #101
SMU (11-2), KenPom #76
at UCF (9-5), KenPom #102
UConn (9-5), KenPom #71
Temple (9-4), KenPom #74
USF
at Cincinnati
at UConn
ECU (6-8), KenPom #251
Houston (11-3), KenPom # 28
at SMU
at Tulane (9-5), KenPom #180
Wichita St.
at Houston

By my count, that's 16 games remaining. Honestly, I'm worried this may be a bubble team.

I see 3 probable losses (at Wichita St., at SMU, and at Houston).

I see 8 loseable games (Cincy x 2, SMU at home, at Tulsa, at UCF, at UConn, Houston at home, Wichita St. at home)

We probably have 1 unexpected loss coming.

I see us entering the conference tournament with 8 losses (a 9th loss if we don't win the conference tournament). Will this be good enough to get in?

Matter of perspective. Some people see 8 losable games. I see 8 winnable games.

My 8 losses include the 2 that we already have, 2 of my probable losses, 3 of those 8 games, and 1 WTF loss).

I also see our losses literally translating to our seeding at this point.

2 losses = 2 seed
3 losses = 3 seed
4 losses = 4 seed
......
10 losses = 10 seed or off the bubble

Probably go into the tournament with 4 losses total.

Have to think this team will start to gel and everybody will find a role as we move through conference play. Had a lot of off the court distractions this first half but I'm guessing (read: hoping) this is the squad we're going to roll with until the end. Hopefully that consistency will start to pay off.

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Georgia is on the bubble and listed by JL as a next 4 out. Its not a loss you want, but I wouldn't call it a bad loss.

(01-07-2020 03:04 PM)fsquid Wrote:  Probably go into the tournament with 4 losses total.

Yeah, that is about what I think we will have....2 to 3 more losses by tourny time. I am thinking barring a early AAC tourny loss, we are a 4th seed.

We have 4 more Quad 1 win opportunities left as of right now (Wichita St. x2, @Houston, @SMU)

We lose 1 game by a single possession where we couldn't buy a bucket in the last 7 minutes of the game and we go from a projected S16 or better team to on the bubble... This place flip flops faster than a bipolar seesaw.

(01-07-2020 03:12 PM)Trapper John Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Georgia is on the bubble and listed by JL as a next 4 out. Its not a loss you want, but I wouldn't call it a bad loss.

If Georgia goes .500 in SEC play they will likely be a tourney team. They have a lot of opportunity to improve their lot upcoming.

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Losing 6 more? Pfft. Right now, we would be favored in all but 3 games the rest of the season.

And it wasn't a bad loss. It was a game we shoulda won - but not a bad loss. There are 7 teams ranked ahead of us with worse losses than this. Heck, UK has 2 losses that are much worse.

You want to talk about lack of opportunities for big wins, yes, they're limited right now. But let's be real, this isn't a bad loss.

Are you always this pessimistic, or is it just basic trolling?

Two "different" posters doing most of the pot stirring. Both predict 8 losses.
hmmmmm...

(01-07-2020 09:56 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Losing 6 more? Pfft. Right now, we would be favored in all but 3 games the rest of the season.

And it wasn't a bad loss. It was a game we shoulda won - but not a bad loss. There are 7 teams ranked ahead of us with worse losses than this. Heck, UK has 2 losses that are much worse.

You want to talk about lack of opportunities for big wins, yes, they're limited right now. But let's be real, this isn't a bad loss.

Are you always this pessimistic, or is it just basic trolling?

I watch enough college basketball to know we will lose a handful more games. Going to lose a few of the road games at WS, Houston, SMU, UConn, Cincy and we aren't so great that we can expect to walk all over Tulsa, UCF, USF, and Tulane at their places. We have lost at all 4 recently. Also, in case you missed it- this past Saturday, a not so great Georgia team walked into FEF and beat us, so we are more than capable of losing at home to teams we should beat.

(01-08-2020 08:43 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 09:56 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Losing 6 more? Pfft. Right now, we would be favored in all but 3 games the rest of the season.

And it wasn't a bad loss. It was a game we shoulda won - but not a bad loss. There are 7 teams ranked ahead of us with worse losses than this. Heck, UK has 2 losses that are much worse.

You want to talk about lack of opportunities for big wins, yes, they're limited right now. But let's be real, this isn't a bad loss.

Are you always this pessimistic, or is it just basic trolling?

I watch enough college basketball to know we will lose a handful more games. Going to lose a few of the road games at WS, Houston, SMU, UConn, Cincy and we aren't so great that we can expect to walk all over Tulsa, UCF, USF, and Tulane at their places. We have lost at all 4 recently. Also, in case you missed it- this past Saturday, a not so great Georgia team walked into FEF and beat us, so we are more than capable of losing at home to teams we should beat.

So basic trolling it is.

In case you missed it, we were without our #2 guy.

We won at UTK in a packed hostile arena when they were at full strength and not what they are now. Say what you want about that team but there won't be many road games in conference that will be tougher than that environment. At Wichita is really the only exception.

Every advanced metric out there says we're favored in all but 2-3 games down the stretch. But since you watch college bb, I guess you know better.

(01-07-2020 09:56 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Losing 6 more? Pfft. Right now, we would be favored in all but 3 games the rest of the season.

And it wasn't a bad loss. It was a game we shoulda won - but not a bad loss. There are 7 teams ranked ahead of us with worse losses than this. Heck, UK has 2 losses that are much worse.

You want to talk about lack of opportunities for big wins, yes, they're limited right now. But let's be real, this isn't a bad loss.

Are you always this pessimistic, or is it just basic trolling?

FWIW.... Realtime RPI has Memphis projected to finish 22-9. Projected to win every home game and losing every away game except @ Tulsa and @Tulane.

Been watching a lot of AAC ball this year. Don't see away losses at UCF, USF, UConn, or Tulsa. We defend too well to lose to teams like these. I think 26-5, 25-6 is more realistic.

(01-08-2020 09:44 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-08-2020 08:43 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 09:56 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 02:51 PM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  17 games

Is 11-6 (23-8) enough to get us in or will we need to win 1 or 2 in Fort Worth? Guess it will depend on who we beat and who we lose to. Not many chances for good wins but certainly ample opportunities for more bad losses like UGA

Losing 6 more? Pfft. Right now, we would be favored in all but 3 games the rest of the season.

And it wasn't a bad loss. It was a game we shoulda won - but not a bad loss. There are 7 teams ranked ahead of us with worse losses than this. Heck, UK has 2 losses that are much worse.

You want to talk about lack of opportunities for big wins, yes, they're limited right now. But let's be real, this isn't a bad loss.

Are you always this pessimistic, or is it just basic trolling?

I watch enough college basketball to know we will lose a handful more games. Going to lose a few of the road games at WS, Houston, SMU, UConn, Cincy and we aren't so great that we can expect to walk all over Tulsa, UCF, USF, and Tulane at their places. We have lost at all 4 recently. Also, in case you missed it- this past Saturday, a not so great Georgia team walked into FEF and beat us, so we are more than capable of losing at home to teams we should beat.

So basic trolling it is.

In case you missed it, we were without our #2 guy.

We won at UTK in a packed hostile arena when they were at full strength and not what they are now. Say what you want about that team but there won't be many road games in conference that will be tougher than that environment. At Wichita is really the only exception.

Every advanced metric out there says we're favored in all but 2-3 games down the stretch. But since you watch college bb, I guess you know better.

Lol

Teams literally lose on the road to lesser teams every single night. There’s actually a nice chunk of $ to be made if you know what you’re doing. But whatever floats your boat.