School//NET/KenPom/Sagarin/Massey
WSU// 9/34/18/19
Memphis// 22/38/25/25
Houston//42/25/23/29
Temple// 60/75/86/57
SMU//62/74/68/73
Cincy//88/59/63/70
UConn// 98/71/97/85
Tulsa//102/101/109/115
UCF// 106/102/104/99
Tulane// 111/181/167/160
USF// 128/115/108/116
ECU// 248/247/232/230

Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

A mixture of good news and bad news, and noticeably more intra-conference parity this week.

The bad news is that, now, 7, rather than 8 AAC teams are in the consensus top 100.

Memphis, Temple, UConn, and Cincy have all taken a noticeable hit, after their recent upset losses.

The good news is that 10 of the 12 AAC teams are either in the consensus top 120 among these ratings.

In particular, USF, Tulsa, and SMU have taken significant strides forward.

(01-06-2020 09:24 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

Perhaps, with SMU joining the hunt, but the "regular suspects" (Temple, UConn, Cincy) all took a big hit this week. Temple was looking pretty good until "the shootout at the OK corral." The middle of the pack teams will be competing intensively, and unless one or two emerge from the scrum, they could take turns knocking each other out of the running.

It's not too late for Tulsa, UCF, and/or USF to get hot and fight their way into one of the various post-season tournaments.

Sagarin and Ken Pom continue to punish the Wave for the 5 or so dreadful teams on the pre-conference schedule. These teams still haven't won more than a game or 2.

(01-06-2020 09:24 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

No. The Autobids with confeences whose winners have a NET of 167+ will take I forget how many bids (16 or so), so a P7 team I think has to have around a 52 NET to be in the running for at-large bids. Temple and SMU are out right now. Three bid league.

(01-06-2020 09:46 AM)DrBox Wrote:  Sagarin and Ken Pom continue to punish the Wave for the 5 or so dreadful teams on the pre-conference schedule. These teams still haven't won more than a game or 2.

Kenpom and Sagarin doesn't punish you for playing poor teams....

You just have to smash them

(01-07-2020 01:46 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(01-06-2020 09:24 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

No. The Autobids with confeences whose winners have a NET of 167+ will take I forget how many bids (16 or so), so a P7 team I think has to have around a 52 NET to be in the running for at-large bids. Temple and SMU are out right now. Three bid league.

Agree. Right now it's 3 bids, not 5. The other 2 miss out and go NIT.

(01-07-2020 10:43 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 01:46 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(01-06-2020 09:24 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

No. The Autobids with confeences whose winners have a NET of 167+ will take I forget how many bids (16 or so), so a P7 team I think has to have around a 52 NET to be in the running for at-large bids. Temple and SMU are out right now. Three bid league.

Agree. Right now it's 3 bids, not 5. The other 2 miss out and go NIT.

Actually we got four in last year with a much worse net at the same time. Right now using last year as a comparison there are 2 teams ranked higher than any team last year and the same.number in the top 50. ECU is under its ranking for last year. Tulane has jumped like 200 spots and should USF get under 120 (currently 128) we will have 11 teams inside the top 120 meaning every road game other than ECU is a quad 2. It is lining up to be a five bid year.

(01-07-2020 11:11 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 10:43 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(01-07-2020 01:46 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(01-06-2020 09:24 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

No. The Autobids with confeences whose winners have a NET of 167+ will take I forget how many bids (16 or so), so a P7 team I think has to have around a 52 NET to be in the running for at-large bids. Temple and SMU are out right now. Three bid league.

Agree. Right now it's 3 bids, not 5. The other 2 miss out and go NIT.

Actually we got four in last year with a much worse net at the same time. Right now using last year as a comparison there are 2 teams ranked higher than any team last year and the same.number in the top 50. ECU is under its ranking for last year. Tulane has jumped like 200 spots and should USF get under 120 (currently 128) we will have 11 teams inside the top 120 meaning every road game other than ECU is a quad 2. It is lining up to be a five bid year.

Inquiring minds differ.

NIT projections have Temple, SMU, UConn, and Cincinnati in the field with UH, Wichita State, and Memphis in the NCAA.

No sub-250 teams. If ECU had gotten healthy earlier I think we have no sub-200 teams. This league is really rounding into a solid hoops league top to bottom. Come a long way in a few years.

(01-06-2020 09:08 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  School//NET/KenPom/Sagarin/Massey
WSU// 9/34/18/19
Memphis// 22/38/25/25
Houston//42/25/23/29
Temple// 60/75/86/57
SMU//62/74/68/73
Cincy//88/59/63/70
UConn// 98/71/97/85
Tulsa//102/101/109/115
UCF// 106/102/104/99
Tulane// 111/181/167/160
USF// 128/115/108/116
ECU// 248/247/232/230

About what I expected. No worries, DJ Jeffries will be back for Wichita State:-)

(01-06-2020 09:08 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  School//NET/KenPom/Sagarin/Massey
.
WSU// 9/34/18/19
Memphis// 22/38/25/25
Houston//42/25/23/29
Temple// 60/75/86/57
SMU//62/74/68/73
Cincy//88/59/63/70
UConn// 98/71/97/85
Tulsa//102/101/109/115
UCF// 106/102/104/99
Tulane// 111/181/167/160
USF// 128/115/108/116
ECU// 248/247/232/230

.
These rankings suggest that Cincy, SMU, and Temple - - and possibly 1 or 2 others - - are potential or possible NIT teams.

Because ~20 of the automatic bids will go to #12 through #16 seeded teams, there will probably be ~48 at-large bids.

If the selection committee were to go by the NET rankings alone, WSU, Memphis, and UH would be the 3 AAC teams in the NCAA.

The next ~32 teams would go into the NIT. By NET rankings alone, those would go to the #49 through #80 NET teams. At this moment, that would probably include Cincy, SMU, and Temple.

Of these, Temple may have the best shot at getting an #11 seed in the NCAA, given that their average NET ranking had been in the mid-40s for several weeks, and because their Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 record is a very NCAA #11 seed-like 1-1, 3-3, 2-0, 3-0, while their road record is a very respectable 5-3 (home: 4-1). Additionally, Temple's S.O.S. is quite high.


WSU's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 1-1, 3-0, 2-0, 7-0

Memphis's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 1-1, 2-1, 4-0, 5-0

Houston's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 1-1, 2-2, 4-0, 4-0

Temple's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 1-1, 3-3, 2-0, 3-0

SMU's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 0-1, 1-1, 4-0, 6-0

Cincy's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 0-3, 0-1, 6-2, 2-0

UConn's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 0-2, 2-2, 1-0, 6-1

UCF's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 0-2, 0-1, 4-2, 5-0

Tulsa's W-L record by "Q"uartiles: 0-1, 2-1, 2-2, 5-1

***The new net rankings are out. **** Major opportunity for Memphis to move up tomorrow with a win against Wichita State - on their court.

(01-08-2020 11:14 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  ***The new net rankings are out. **** Major opportunity for Memphis to move up tomorrow with a win against Wichita State - on their court.

I'd love to see it, but I'm expecting a loss. I've seen nothing yet to show that we're going to overcome our negative tendencies, and to beat WSU tomorrow is possible only with a complete reversal. By this point of the season such things are becoming harder and harder to achieve.

Wichita moves up to 8 in the NET this morning. Memphis holds at 24 after the loss

Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

(01-10-2020 09:23 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  Wichita moves up to 8 in the NET this morning. Memphis holds at 24 after the loss

Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

Kudos to Coach Marshall and the Shockers!

To think that WSU wasn't even considered a preseason top 25 team.

(01-06-2020 09:24 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  Is it possible? Starting to look like 5 NCAA bids could be a real possibility.

Nope. NET is only slightly more accurate than RPI was at this point of the season.